Thoughts on Team USA After the Preliminaries

Team USA scored a perfect mark in the preliminaries of the FIBA Men’s World Championship.  Five games played, five games won.  And given the talent the USA has brought to the Japan, it is clear why Team USA is the favorite to take the gold. 

Here are some thoughts I had on Team USA last night while I watched the Detroit Lions — the NFL team I have the misfortune of following — lose to the Oakland Raiders.

Carmelo Anthony Goes from Worst to First

Let’s start with the best player for Team USA thus far – Carmelo Anthony.  Of the twelve players taken to Japan, Anthony was the least productive performer in the NBA in 2005-06.  In fact, he was the only player to post a below average performance in Win Produced per 48 minutes played. Although the reasons for his relatively low level of productivity were detailed previously in this forum, I wish to draw attention to one specific weakness in Anthony’s NBA game.  Last year he took 152 three point shots and only made 37, for a conversion rate of 24%. 

In international play, this specific weakness has turned into a clear strength.  So far Anthony has taken 22 shots from behind the shorter international arc and made 11.  Consequently, in terms of point per field goal attempt [(PTS-FTM)/FGA)] Anthony is much improved.  In the NBA Anthony scored 0.985 points per shot from the field, a mark close to the average performance of an NBA player.  In Japan he has scored 1.338 points per field goal attempt.  So Anthony has clearly improved in terms of shooting efficiency.

In addition, Anthony is helping Team USA win the turnover battle.  In the NBA last season he committed 218 turnovers and only generated 88 steals.  Through five games in Japan Anthony has generated nine steals and only turned the ball over four times.   

The good news is that Anthony has played much better than what we observed in the NBA.  In fact, with a Win Score per-minute of 0.414 – the highest per-minute mark on Team USA – one can argue that Anthony has been the best player on the team.

Unfortunately, the good news may also be bad news going forward.  If Anthony reverts to what we have seen in the NBA – average shooting efficiency, below average in steals, above average in turnovers — and no one else steps forward, Team USA might be in trouble.   

Who is Playing Power Forward?

Team USA has played five games.  Given that each game is only forty minutes, Coach K has so far had to allocate 1,000 player minutes across twelve players.  On the roster are four players who typically play power forward and/or center: Dwight Howard, Elton Brand, Brad Miller, and Chris Bosh.  These four players have played 253 minutes, leaving 147 minutes at the four and five spot for the other players on the team.

Antawn Jamison, who can play both forward spots, has played 52 minutes.  That leaves nearly 100 minutes at power forward for seven players who typically do not play power forward in the NBA, and more importantly, do not rebound at a level necessary to play the four spot.

Against Team Italy this issue was exasperated by Chris Bosh and Brad Miller sitting on the bench the entire game.  Given the location of Bosh and Miller during the game, it is not surprising that Team Italy out-rebounded Team USA.  Now in this game Dwyane Wade and Anthony hit 74% of their shots, and the team hit on 57% of it field goal attempts.  If Wade and Anthony can keep hitting at this level, a lack of rebounding will not be that big of an issue.  Of course it may not be the best plan going forward to count on Team USA to keep hitting at this level. 

Shooting from Downtown

A problem in past international competitions was a lack of shooting from beyond the arc. In the 2004 Olympic games Team USA shot 31% from three point range.

Like the 2004 roster, Team USA did not bring a team heavily populated with three point specialists.  So far, though, players who have not been outstanding from beyond the NBA’s three point arc have been hitting these shots in Japan.  Anthony, Kirk Hinrich, and Shane Battier have taken 45 three point shots thus far, hitting on 24, for a conversion rate of 53%.  Of these three players, Anthony and Hinrich were not ranked in the top 50 in the NBA in three point shooting in 2005-06.  Battier was ranked 33rd.  Other than Jamison, who has only hit on four of the thirteen downtown shots he has taken, none of the other top 50 players in the NBA are on Team USA.

And this lack of three point specialists can be seen when we look at the remainder of the roster.  Once we move past Anthony, Hinrich, and Battier we have players that have taken 64 three point shots and only made 18.  This is a conversion rate of 28%, quite close to what we saw from Team USA in 2004. 

Put it all together, though, and Team USA has hit on 39% of its long distance shots, which is not bad.  And if Anthony, Hinrich, and Battier keep hitting, Team USA might be able to keep up with its opponents – who so far are hitting on 41% of their shots from beyond the arc.

Who’s Hot, Who’s Not

Let’s finish this post with the issue everyone seems to want to focus upon: who’s hot and who’s not? Already I have noted the outstanding play of Anthony, who one can argue has been the most productive player through five games. 

Anthony, though, has not been the only above average performer. For example, through the first five games only one player has posted an above average Win Score per minute in every game.  And that player is Chris Paul, who leads the teams in minutes played, steals (though not on a per-minute basis), assists, and is second behind Battier in shooting efficiency.  He has also only turned the ball over six times.  

Although every player after Paul has had at least one below average game by NBA standards, only two players – Joe Johnson and Antawn Jamison – have been below average overall thus far. 

After Anthony and Paul, the best players in Win Score have been Wade, LeBron James, Elton Brand, and Dwight Howard.  All of these players have a Win Score per minute greater than 0.300, which is above average regardless of position a player plays. 

In sum, several players have led Team USA to five wins in five games.  Going forward, if Team USA can continue to hit its shots, win the turnover battle, and avoid losing on the boards again, the Gold Medal should be won.  Of course, if these things do not happen, then we can spend the next two years debating how to once again fix Team USA.

- DJ