A frequent topic in this forum is the New York Knicks. The reason for the frequent discussion of New York’s favorite team is that the Knicks are perhaps the perfect example of where we think decision-making in the NBA goes astray. Isiah Thomas was given a vast budget in New York and clearly has a desire to win. But he has spent that money primarily on scorers. And although this collection of players is expensive, Thomas has discovered that expensive scorers cannot buy victories.
At the quarter pole in 2006-07 the Knicks saga appears to continue. The Knicks have now played 21 games and posted a record of 7-14. At first glance this team does not look much improved upon what we saw last year. With a winning percentage of 0.333, the team is on pace to win 27 games. If that holds true, the Knicks would have only improved four games over the team led by Larry Brown last season.
If we look a bit deeper at the numbers we do see evidence for a bit more improvement than the record indicates. Per possession this team is scoring 1.02 points, a mark that is just a tad below the league average mark of 1.03. Defense is more of a problem. So far the team is allowing 1.05 points per possession. Still, if we take the team’s marks in offensive and defensive efficiency and project wins, we see a projected winning percentage of 0.413. Over an 82 game season that is 34 wins, or an 11 game improvement over what we saw last year. Yes, this is still a below average team. Still, if we look at the productivity of this team’s players thus far, there are a few positive signs here and there.
Playing Above Average
The most positive sign is the play of David Lee. As noted yesterday, on a per-minute basis Lee was the second most productive rookie last year. In 2006-07 he has improved dramatically, posting a Wins Produced per 48 minutes (WP4 
of 0.379. Average is 0.100, so Lee is clearly having an outstanding season. Given this productivity it is odd that Isiah Thomas has suggested Lee should return to the bench in the near future. In general, sitting your most productive player does not help you win games.
Beyond Lee, the team has also received above average performances from Quentin Richardson, Steve Francis, and Renaldo Balkman. The play of Balkman does vindicate Thomas to some extent, since Thomas was much maligned for choosing Balkman in the first round of the 2006 draft.
Playing Out of Position
Thomas does have a problem, though, with how Balkman is used. Generally Balkman is thought of as a small forward. If we look at how minutes are assigned on the Knicks, Balkman must be spending a great deal of time at power forward. And while Balkman is extremely productive for a small forward, he is only average at power forward.
Basically Isiah Thomas has over indulged in guards these last few years. To get all these players on the court he is forced to play guards like Richardson and Crawford at small forward. This forces him to play Balkman at power forward. Perhaps Thomas would be better off returning these players to their natural positions and sitting some of the less productive guards.
Playing Below Average
The list of unproductive guards that he might consider sitting a bit more includes Jamal Crawford and Stephon Marbury. Each of these players has not played particularly well this season. For Marbury, it increasingly appears that his feud with Brown was not the problem.
The two guards are not the only places where production has been less than optimal. In the off-season Thomas pointed to Eddy Curry as the key to the season. Up until three games ago, Curry had let him down. In the first 18 games Curry had posted an above average Win Score per minute exactly twice. In the last three games, though, he has been well above average each time.
For the season, his WP48 is still below zero. Still, if Curry can keep playing as he did against Washington, Memphis, and Toronto, the Knicks might finally get what they are paying so much for. Of course, the schedule says the Knicks don’t get to keep playing teams like Washington, Memphis, and Toronto. So it seems likely that the Curry the Knicks have often seen in the past will once again re-emerge.
Losing Sleep for the Wages of Wins
When scholars write it is hoped that someone, somewhere, will listen. As we note in the Preface to The Wages of Wins, much of what academics write in scholarly journals is never read by anyone. So to have people read what you have to say is certainly welcomed news. To have people like Jonathan Weiler choose to read our book at 3am instead of sleeping is a bit odd, but also very good to hear.
On Wednesday Weiler posted a comment that was more than 2,000 words on Wins Produced. My hope is to go through his words, as well as the comments of Matthew Yglesias and Henry Abbott, and post a few more thoughts next week.
In the meantime I can only say we were pleased that our work has generated so much conversation. Hopefully my comments next week can offer some additional insights into what we are – and are not – saying with Wins Produced. If anything, hopefully the comments will keep the conversation going.
- DJ
2 responses so far ↓
Jason // December 9, 2006 at 3:28 pm
That Thomas has decided to send Lee to the bench is a pretty clear indication that he should not be in charge of a team. If he doesn’t have a line on wins produced or win score, he could look at the team +/- and note that Lee leads the squad there too. No, Lee isn’t flashy but he makes their team shoot better *and* collect more offensive boards while being neutral on defensive as a team. What can you say? Isaiah seems to be doing as Isaiah is known to do.
It’s not terribly surprising that Curry has had his better performances (via winscore) vs the teams he has. As centers go, Curry is a poor rebounder and I suspect that’s the bulk of his limits in winscore. Memphis, Toronto and Washington are among the weaker rebounding teams in the league and he has been able to exploit that in his contests with them of late.
There is not universal agreement between wins produced and +/- but as far as the Knicks are concerned, it looks like the two have rather good correlations so far. Richardson is a net negative despite his high wp48, though I wonder if his status as a ‘tweener’ playing something of a guard, something of a forward might account for some of it. I’m not sure how you account for position average in such a case, though clearly there are players for whom a single positional designation doesn’t adequately describe how he is used.
On related topics, now that it appears that Iverson is soon to be out of Philly pending someone willing to trade for him, I wonder if there are teams he could help mor than others, and if the Knicks might be one of those teams. It seems that history indicates that Iverson’s teams are most successful when they have ample rebounding to take in the 15 or so missed shots Iverson routinely produces. While not at the very top, this year it appears that the Knicks have been a bit above average on the boards. If Iverson made it possible to keep a couple of the Marbury/Crawford types off the floor at guard in favor of a sf type playing off guard to increase rebounding and allowing Iverson to be the defacto 1-2 combo (which is what he seems to do even when paired with another guard), they might see some dividends.
Jason // December 11, 2006 at 3:22 pm
Been thinking of some other basketball followups. In the summer, you indicated that both Carmelo Anthony and Al Harrington were getting big paydays though neither had produced many “wins.”
Anthony is playing on a team winning more often than not and he seems to have improved his per minute scoring, rebounding and assists over last year and has seen a gain in his FG%. He’s also well in the positive on his +/-.
Harrington seems to be scoring at about the same rate with his rebounds up a bit (per minute), FG% up some but assists down. The Pacers are about what they were last year–a .500 team, and Harrington once again seems to be in negative +/- land.
I’m curious how their respective wins produce look at this point.
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