Comments on: The Best Offenses, Best Defenses, Best Teams, and NBA Analysis http://dberri.wordpress.com/2006/12/26/the-best-offenses-best-defenses-best-teams-and-nba-analysis/ More Stories from The Wages of Wins Sat, 02 Jan 2010 08:09:16 +0000 http://wordpress.com/ hourly 1 By: Passion and Pride | MVN - Most Valuable Network » Blog Archive » More Wages Of Wins http://dberri.wordpress.com/2006/12/26/the-best-offenses-best-defenses-best-teams-and-nba-analysis/#comment-10696 Passion and Pride | MVN - Most Valuable Network » Blog Archive » More Wages Of Wins Fri, 29 Dec 2006 02:59:50 +0000 http://dberri.wordpress.com/2006/12/26/the-best-offenses-best-defenses-best-teams-and-nba-analysis/#comment-10696 [...] In the meantime, Dave Berri posted a ranking system of all the teams based on offensive and defensive efficiencies.  The number of possessions per game represents the benchmark for each team’s maximum potential on both sides of the ball.  The Sixers are only behind the Charlotte Bobcats in point differential.  They were giving up 98.7 points and scoring 94.7 in 93.6 possessions.  That was before last night’s blowout loss to the Sacramento Kings, 76-101. [...] [...] In the meantime, Dave Berri posted a ranking system of all the teams based on offensive and defensive efficiencies.  The number of possessions per game represents the benchmark for each team’s maximum potential on both sides of the ball.  The Sixers are only behind the Charlotte Bobcats in point differential.  They were giving up 98.7 points and scoring 94.7 in 93.6 possessions.  That was before last night’s blowout loss to the Sacramento Kings, 76-101. [...]

]]> By: Westy http://dberri.wordpress.com/2006/12/26/the-best-offenses-best-defenses-best-teams-and-nba-analysis/#comment-10509 Westy Thu, 28 Dec 2006 00:26:34 +0000 http://dberri.wordpress.com/2006/12/26/the-best-offenses-best-defenses-best-teams-and-nba-analysis/#comment-10509 Obviously KG is a much discussed WoW topic. However, I'd especially be interested in seeing statistics on the T-Wolves this year. With the recent upturn in Foye's play (and now knowing the Iverson fling is a no-go), is there finally some hope for the Wolves? I would be interested to see if their play is trending upwards with more playing time for Foye (a hint that their final wins might be higher than their beginning play statistics predict). What lineup would offer the most hope? With a plethora of guards at the coach's disposal, settling on a crunch-time lineup has not been easy (despite the consistency in starters). Obviously KG is a much discussed WoW topic. However, I’d especially be interested in seeing statistics on the T-Wolves this year. With the recent upturn in Foye’s play (and now knowing the Iverson fling is a no-go), is there finally some hope for the Wolves? I would be interested to see if their play is trending upwards with more playing time for Foye (a hint that their final wins might be higher than their beginning play statistics predict).
What lineup would offer the most hope? With a plethora of guards at the coach’s disposal, settling on a crunch-time lineup has not been easy (despite the consistency in starters).

]]> By: Reviewing the Signing of Big Ben « The Wages of Wins Journal http://dberri.wordpress.com/2006/12/26/the-best-offenses-best-defenses-best-teams-and-nba-analysis/#comment-10490 Reviewing the Signing of Big Ben « The Wages of Wins Journal Wed, 27 Dec 2006 21:04:00 +0000 http://dberri.wordpress.com/2006/12/26/the-best-offenses-best-defenses-best-teams-and-nba-analysis/#comment-10490 [...] Weekly QB Score Rankings ← The Best Offenses, Best Defenses, Best Teams, and NBA Analysis [...] [...] Weekly QB Score Rankings ← The Best Offenses, Best Defenses, Best Teams, and NBA Analysis [...]

]]> By: X http://dberri.wordpress.com/2006/12/26/the-best-offenses-best-defenses-best-teams-and-nba-analysis/#comment-10484 X Wed, 27 Dec 2006 20:12:55 +0000 http://dberri.wordpress.com/2006/12/26/the-best-offenses-best-defenses-best-teams-and-nba-analysis/#comment-10484 Balance is a big help in helping a team advance thru all challenges to become NBA champion. Offense/defense efficiency balance has been studied a number of times. Looking deeper at the 4 factors offense and defense, I noticed the champ in last 10 years has been top 10 on 5 of the 8 parts or really close on one or more beyond 4. I haven't checked how many challengers each year could match that. but the pattern for the champ is pretty consistent. Strongest by this assessment: 96 Bulls with 72 regular season wins were top 10 on 7. 92 Bulls with 67 wins also had 7. Of this season's contenders Spurs are top 10 on 5. Dallas on 3 but top 11 on 6. Jazz 5. Nuggets 4 and close on 1. Suns 4. Cavs 4. Bulls 3 and close on 2 more. Clippers and Magic 3 and close on 1. Pistons and Wizards 3. Lakers, Rockets and Heat just 2. These are principal sources of competitive superiority but not the only ones as 3pt and inside and clutch scoring and hole plugging depth are also important to look at. Of course the 4 factors arent of equal size and amount of superiority realized will vary. Playoff performance may also vary from regular season which is heavily influenced by performance against the bottom two-thirds of league, opponents that go away completely after first round of playoffs. Performance against the top 10 is a more relevant dataset. And if 4 factor ranks from last season's playoffs were compiled that would also be helpful additonal research material but you'd have to apply judgment weighing that data to project the upcoming playoffs adjusting to account for aging and development curves and roster changes. 9 teams are at least close to having 4 top 10 rankings. Champ probably comes from within that group though specific team and player matchups could allow another team to skate fortutiously thru as Miami did last year. I won't try to predict the champ yet but this examination adds a little to my lean towards the Spurs or Mavs. Around allstar break I’ll check this again and other championship standards and try to refine playoff projections. Balance is a big help in helping a team advance thru all challenges to become NBA champion. Offense/defense efficiency balance has been studied a number of times. Looking deeper at the 4 factors offense and defense, I noticed the champ in last 10 years has been top 10 on 5 of the 8 parts or really close on one or more beyond 4. I haven’t checked how many challengers each year could match that. but the pattern for the champ is pretty consistent.

Strongest by this assessment: 96 Bulls with 72 regular season wins were top 10 on 7. 92 Bulls with 67 wins also had 7.

Of this season’s contenders Spurs are top 10 on 5. Dallas on 3 but top 11 on 6.
Jazz 5. Nuggets 4 and close on 1. Suns 4. Cavs 4. Bulls 3 and close on 2 more. Clippers and Magic 3 and close on 1. Pistons and Wizards 3. Lakers, Rockets and Heat just 2.

These are principal sources of competitive superiority but not the only ones as 3pt and inside and clutch scoring and hole plugging depth are also important to look at. Of course the 4 factors arent of equal size and amount of superiority realized will vary. Playoff performance may also vary from regular season which is heavily influenced by performance against the bottom two-thirds of league, opponents that go away completely after first round of playoffs. Performance against the top 10 is a more relevant dataset. And if 4 factor ranks from last season’s playoffs were compiled that would also be helpful additonal research material but you’d have to apply judgment weighing that data to project the upcoming playoffs adjusting to account for aging and development curves and roster changes.

9 teams are at least close to having 4 top 10 rankings. Champ probably comes from within that group though specific team and player matchups could allow another team to skate fortutiously thru as Miami did last year. I won’t try to predict the champ yet but this examination adds a little to my lean towards the Spurs or Mavs. Around allstar break I’ll check this again and other championship standards and try to refine playoff projections.

]]> By: Okapi http://dberri.wordpress.com/2006/12/26/the-best-offenses-best-defenses-best-teams-and-nba-analysis/#comment-10480 Okapi Wed, 27 Dec 2006 19:35:52 +0000 http://dberri.wordpress.com/2006/12/26/the-best-offenses-best-defenses-best-teams-and-nba-analysis/#comment-10480 Dave, I would like to see more on the Dallas Mavericks. Thanks. Dave, I would like to see more on the Dallas Mavericks. Thanks.

]]> By: A-ro http://dberri.wordpress.com/2006/12/26/the-best-offenses-best-defenses-best-teams-and-nba-analysis/#comment-10453 A-ro Wed, 27 Dec 2006 13:52:05 +0000 http://dberri.wordpress.com/2006/12/26/the-best-offenses-best-defenses-best-teams-and-nba-analysis/#comment-10453 I would love to see more about my Pistons. In addition to whatever you find interesting to focus on, I am interested in the following: they have been playing some bench players more, perhaps on the theory that burning out our starters last year for regualr-season glory backfired in the playoffs. How much better than 50 wins might we expect the Pistons to do this season if they played Billups, Hamilton, Prince, and Rasheed as much as they did last year? I would love to see more about my Pistons.

In addition to whatever you find interesting to focus on, I am interested in the following: they have been playing some bench players more, perhaps on the theory that burning out our starters last year for regualr-season glory backfired in the playoffs.

How much better than 50 wins might we expect the Pistons to do this season if they played Billups, Hamilton, Prince, and Rasheed as much as they did last year?

]]> By: Damo http://dberri.wordpress.com/2006/12/26/the-best-offenses-best-defenses-best-teams-and-nba-analysis/#comment-10435 Damo Wed, 27 Dec 2006 09:58:33 +0000 http://dberri.wordpress.com/2006/12/26/the-best-offenses-best-defenses-best-teams-and-nba-analysis/#comment-10435 while im convinced the player injury 'yao' effect is too big to make these numbers matter all that much id like to see more on the suns, lakers, clippers, warriors, blazers, pistons, wizards, magic, celtics, raptors, hawks and knicks please while im convinced the player injury ‘yao’ effect is too big to make these numbers matter all that much id like to see more on the suns, lakers, clippers, warriors, blazers, pistons, wizards, magic, celtics, raptors, hawks and knicks please

]]> By: Okapi http://dberri.wordpress.com/2006/12/26/the-best-offenses-best-defenses-best-teams-and-nba-analysis/#comment-10404 Okapi Wed, 27 Dec 2006 04:03:04 +0000 http://dberri.wordpress.com/2006/12/26/the-best-offenses-best-defenses-best-teams-and-nba-analysis/#comment-10404 Dave, Spurts won 21 of first 29 games. And you project they'll win 46 of their next 53. So 21-8 and now you see them going 46-7 rest of the way?! Dave, Spurts won 21 of first 29 games.

And you project they’ll win 46 of their next 53.

So 21-8 and now you see them going 46-7 rest of the way?!

]]> By: Jeremy http://dberri.wordpress.com/2006/12/26/the-best-offenses-best-defenses-best-teams-and-nba-analysis/#comment-10401 Jeremy Wed, 27 Dec 2006 02:48:40 +0000 http://dberri.wordpress.com/2006/12/26/the-best-offenses-best-defenses-best-teams-and-nba-analysis/#comment-10401 The most fascinating observation I get from this post in relation to the NBA season I'm experiencing is the effect of Ben Wallace's move on both the Bulls and Pistons. That 3-9 Bull start was curious, but now we're seeing the expected shift in wins and productivity kick in out East. This may be of interest to almost no one else, but I'd love to see you take a closer look at the Golden State Warriors. I don't know why I still love a team that reliably, predictably disappoints, but I do. In particular I'd be interested to hear about the effect coaching has on team wins. In the Warrior's case we're talking about Don Nelson. You alluded to the short list of coaches who do have a measurable impact and I bet he's on it. This year it seems Nelson's skill at recognizing untapped potential in players like Andris Biedrins, Monta Ellis, Mickael Pietrus and Matt Barnes is largely responsible for the team's up tic in the win column. Does he have a history of doing this with teams? (I include Monta Ellis in that list because I know that's the popular perception. Here's a kid who didn't even log 900 minutes last season and is now their second leading scorer and playing 33 minutes per game. However, last year he only product 0.5 wins with a WP48 of 0.027. I can't crunch the position adjustments, but given the numbers I can crunk I don't think he's produced more than 1 win yet this year. His 101 turnovers are very damaging to his overall productivity. But I digress.) The most fascinating observation I get from this post in relation to the NBA season I’m experiencing is the effect of Ben Wallace’s move on both the Bulls and Pistons. That 3-9 Bull start was curious, but now we’re seeing the expected shift in wins and productivity kick in out East.

This may be of interest to almost no one else, but I’d love to see you take a closer look at the Golden State Warriors. I don’t know why I still love a team that reliably, predictably disappoints, but I do.

In particular I’d be interested to hear about the effect coaching has on team wins. In the Warrior’s case we’re talking about Don Nelson. You alluded to the short list of coaches who do have a measurable impact and I bet he’s on it.

This year it seems Nelson’s skill at recognizing untapped potential in players like Andris Biedrins, Monta Ellis, Mickael Pietrus and Matt Barnes is largely responsible for the team’s up tic in the win column. Does he have a history of doing this with teams?

(I include Monta Ellis in that list because I know that’s the popular perception. Here’s a kid who didn’t even log 900 minutes last season and is now their second leading scorer and playing 33 minutes per game. However, last year he only product 0.5 wins with a WP48 of 0.027. I can’t crunch the position adjustments, but given the numbers I can crunk I don’t think he’s produced more than 1 win yet this year. His 101 turnovers are very damaging to his overall productivity. But I digress.)

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