The Utah Jazz — Contenders or Pretenders?

Jazz History

In 1988 Jerry Sloan took over for Frank Layden as head coach of the Utah Jazz. Prior to 1988, the best season the Jazz franchise had ever seen – either in New Orleans (where the name made sense) or in Utah (where the name doesn’t make sense) – was 47-35. A 47 win season is a winning percentage of 57%, so the Jazz had never finished above the 60% mark.

Over the next 15 seasons the Jazz finished above the 60% mark 12 different times. The average winning percentage across these years was 66%, which translates into a 54 win season.

Although Sloan deserves some of the credit for this record, clearly much of this success is owed to the talents of John Stockton and Karl Malone. Not coincidently, the 1988-89 season was the first year where Stockton and Malone both started the majority of Utah’s games.

After the 2002-03 season Stockton and Malone left the Jazz. Since their departure this team has won only 44% of their contests, or an average of 36 wins per season.

This year, though, the Jazz appear to be back. After 32 games the team has a record of 23-9, which projects to a 59 win season. Only three times in the Stockton-Malone era did the Jazz win 60 games, so the current Utah squad appears to rival the best of the glory years for this franchise.

Are the Jazz Contenders?

If we delve deeper into the number, though, we suspect this team is not quite all the way back.

Let’s start HERE, where the Wins Produced of each Utah player after 32 games is listed. From this list we see clear evidence that Carlos Boozer is back. In 2003-04 – his last season with the Cleveland Cavaliers – he produced 15.8 wins and posted a Wins Produced per 48 minutes [WP48] of 0.293. This year he has a WP48 of 0.319, and partially because Utah is playing him more minutes than Cleveland, he is on pace to produce 19.9 wins.

After Boozer, Utah is getting above average performances from fellow front-court performers Andrei Kirilenko, Mehmet Okur, and rookie Paul Millsap. In the backcourt the Jazz are finally getting an above average effort from Deron Williams (although he is still not as productive as Chris Paul). But after Williams, the team is not getting much from their guards. In sum, as I noted in my review of the 2005-06 Jazz, this team is quite strong in the frontcourt but does not have much at guard.

If we put it all together and examine the summation of the players’ Wins Produced, we see a team that is on pace to win about 50 games. And that probably means, at this point, the Jazz are more of a pretender than a contender.

Contenders and Pretenders in the NBA

Why the discrepancy? As I noted the day after Christmas, the key is offensive and defensive efficiency (which is the foundation of the Wins Produced algorithm). The following list reports the number of points each of the top ten teams (ranked in terms of current winning percentage) score and allow per 100 possessions (which is how we measure offensive and defensive efficiency).

• Dallas: 106.4 points scored, 99.0 points allowed
• Phoenix: 109.2 points scored, 102.4 points allowed
• Utah: 105.6 points scored, 102.0 points allowed
• San Antonio: 106.8 points scored, 97.4 points allowed
• LA Lakers: 105.8 points scored, 102.8 points allowed
• Houston: 102.2 points scored, 96.2 points allowed
• Detroit: 106.7 points scored, 103.2 points allowed
• Cleveland: 101.3 points scored, 98.4 points allowed
• Chicago: 104.0 points scored, 98.9 points allowed
• Washington: 108.2 points scored, 107.1 points allowed

Of these teams, Phoenix has the best offense while Houston currently boasts the best defense. But the best combination of offensive and defensive efficiency – which we can see by just looking at the difference between points scored and allowed per 100 possessions – is offered by the San Antonio Spurs. Per 100 possessions the Spurs score 9.4 points more than their opponent.

The following list reports this point differential for each team, as well as the number of wins we can expect each team to have in the final standings given their offensive and defensive efficiency.

• San Antonio: 9.4 points, 64.6 projected wins
• Dallas: 7.4 points, 60.1 projected wins
• Phoenix: 6.8 points, 58.4 projected wins
• Houston: 6.0 points, 56.4 projected wins
• Chicago: 5.2 points, 54.2 projected wins
• Utah: 3.6 points, 50.2 projected wins
• Detroit: 3.5 points, 50.1 projected wins
• LA Lakers: 3.0 points, 48.8 projected wins
• Cleveland: 2.9 points, 48.4 projected wins
• Washington: 1.2 points, 44.0 projected wins

From this list we see that the list of contenders in the Western Conference reside in Texas and Arizona. In the East, where someone is going to have to advance to the NBA Finals, the list begins with Chicago. The Bulls, though, would not be favored to advance out of the first round in the West, so calling this team a contender is a bit unfair.

This list indicates that Utah, despite their current record, is not one of the four best teams in the Western Conference. Of course, this ranking can change as the season progresses. Houston has lost Yao Ming for the next few weeks, and that should hurt the Rockets. But unless injuries strike the top performers for the Spurs, Mavericks, or Suns, it’s hard to see the Jazz finishing ahead of these teams in the final standings.

 

And the Defending Champs?

Before the season started I identified Phoenix, Dallas, San Antonio, and Houston as the top teams in the West. In the East I identified Miami and Chicago as the two top teams.

So far the defending champs have been a huge disappointment. Per 100 possessions Miami is only scoring 98.8 points and allowing 104.4. Projecting this over 82 games and we see a team that is not expected to reach 30 wins.

The problem for the Heat began four games into the season when Shaquille O’Neal stopped playing. But that’s not the whole story. The Heat returned three veterans who finally won their first title last season: Alonzo Mourning, Antoine Walker, and Gary Payton. Relative to what we saw in 2005-06, each of these players is producing substantially less this season. In addition, the team has now lost its head coach, Pat Riley.

In sum, even when Shaq returns, this team is going to be hard pressed to defend their title. Of course playing in the Eastern Conference is going to help this team at least qualify for the playoffs. Right now, despite how bad this team has played, it’s still only 2.5 games out of the final playoff spot in the East.

Still, it’s hard seeing this team repeating as Eastern Conference champions. As for defeating the best in the West, well, that seems very unlikely. So although the NBA has yet to play 40% of its games in 2006-07, it looks like we are going to get a new champion in 2007.

- DJ