Let me start this column by repeating something I said just a few days ago:
Last summer the sportswriters named Monta Ellis as the Most Improved Player of 2006-07. In response to this selection, I wrote the following column:
The title pretty much summarizes the argument. If you look at the numbers - and I mean at more than points scored per game - it would be hard to argue that Ellis was the most improved player last year. Of the seven candidates I examined last summer, Ellis was the least improved.
As I noted less than two weeks ago, Ellis improved tremendously in 2007-08. In fact, he improved so much that if Wins Produced was your metric of choice (and of course, it should be), Ellis would be the Most Improved Player in 2007-08. In other words, the sportswriters were right last summer, they were just 12 months too early.
Finding the Most Improved
The Monta Ellis conclusion is based on the following analysis. First I looked at players who played at least 1,000 minutes in both 2006-07 and 2007-08. Then I compared the Wins Produced a player posted in 2007-08 to what his Wins Produced would be this season if he maintained his 2006-07 WP48 [Wins Produced per 48 minutes]. Following these steps reveals that Monta Ellis - with a WP48 that increased from 0.043 to 0.177 - posted the largest increase in Wins Produced. In all, Ellis produced 8.6 more wins than his WP48 of 2006-07 would suggest.
Table One: The Most Improved in 2007-08
As Table One reveals, Monta Ellis just edged out Chris Paul for this award. Hedo Turkoglu - the player the media chose - ranks fourth, just behind Chris Kaman (who I would have guessed was the winner before I did my analysis). Rudy Gay - who finished second in the media’s voting - ranks 20th. Yes, Gay did improve, just not as much as a number of other players (including Kaman).
The Unchanged
The media’s vote indicated that LaMarcus Aldridge was the third most improved player. But if we look at the 25 most improved, Aldridge’s name is nowhere to be found.
We do find Aldridge’s name, though, in Table Two.
Table Two: The Unchanged in 2007-08
Table Two reports the players who changed the least from 2006-07 to 2007-08. The 20th player on this list is Aldridge. Yes, a player who members of the media think is the most improved really hasn’t changed much at all.
At least, not in the aggregate. There were some changes in Aldridge’s performance if we look at the individual stats.
Table Three: Evaluating LaMarcus Aldridge
As Table Three indicates, Aldridge did manage to take more shots this season. And despite a lower level of shooting efficiency, he was able to score more points. Of course, if you score less efficiently, you are not helping as much as you could.
In addition to scoring, Aldridge also posted an increase in assists and personal fouls. But he rebounded slightly less and committed a few more turnovers. The net effect was a very small change in Win Score per minute, and as noted, WP48.
Of course the media doesn’t look at Win Score or Wins Produced. In fact, they don’t appear to look at shooting efficiency or per-minute stats. What they did see is that Aldridge increased his per-game scoring from 9.0 to 17.8. And apparently, that was enough to get Aldridge some votes.
The Least Improved
At least, Aldridge did improve a bit. A few players didn’t quite fare this well. Table Four reports the least improved players - or the players who posted the biggest declines - in 2007-08.
Table Four: The Least Improved in 2007-08
Topping the list is Rashard Lewis, who was primarily done in by the switch from small to power forward. The next two names on the list - Quentin Richardson and Dwyane Wade - were done in by injuries.
Assuming Wade can recover from injury, he’s the early favorite for Most Improved in 2008-09. At least, the early favorite if Wins Produced is the metric of choice. Given the media’s fixation on per-game scoring, Wade is going to have a problem winning this award. Wade averaged 24.6 points per game in 2007-08. Unless he can average well over 30 this next season, some members of the media might not see any improvement next season (regardless of what Wins Produced might say).
- DJ
Our research on the NBA was summarized HERE.
The Technical Notes at wagesofwins.com provides substantially more information on the published research behind Wins Produced and Win Score
Wins Produced, Win Score, and PAWSmin are also discussed in the following posts:
Simple Models of Player Performance
What Wins Produced Says and What It Does Not Say
Introducing PAWSmin — and a Defense of Box Score Statistics
Finally, A Guide to Evaluating Models contains useful hints on how to interpret and evaluate statistical models.
17 responses so far ↓
Nathan // April 29, 2008 at 10:05 am
Please, it’s LaMarcus with an “a”.
Please change it, it’s causing my OCD to flair up! j/k.
dberri // April 29, 2008 at 10:26 am
Thanks Nathan. I think I fixed them all.
dustin // April 29, 2008 at 12:26 pm
to be fair, dave is hardly the only one who mis-spells his name.
dberri // April 29, 2008 at 1:26 pm
I also spelled it correctly in the table. So I get partial credit.
antonio // April 29, 2008 at 1:37 pm
the other problem with wade winning the award is that the award is supposed to go to an up and coming player, not an already established star. that is why chris paul did not receive much votes even though i think the media would agree he made the jump from star to superstar. There are some directives for how the media should vote
Anon // April 29, 2008 at 2:25 pm
An up and coming player like Hedo Turkoglu? Isn’t he like 10 years older than Chris Paul?
Jason // April 29, 2008 at 3:12 pm
Is there anywhere where the official guidelines of the “Most Improved” award may be found? The NBA’s own website lists past winners, but I wasn’t able to find anywhere that stated any guidelines (e.g. nowhere did it say that it was reserved for “up and coming players).
Tommy_Grand // April 29, 2008 at 3:59 pm
Was LaMarcus above average for his position this year?
Abraham Linkin - 4/29/08 | SportsTsar.com // April 29, 2008 at 11:29 pm
[...] Numbers don’t lie: Monta Ellis for NBA Most Improved Player (Wages of Wins Journal) [...]
Nathan // April 29, 2008 at 11:49 pm
Yeah, lots of people misspell LaMarcus. Partially because LeMarcus is a common variation.
Now, one thing that the stats don’t show is how each player was defended. LMA kept his production per minute almost unchanged, but did it in the face of nightly double teams while trying to develop a post game. So even though his stats per minute are the same, the degree of difficulty increased. I would argue that by maintaining the same production level in spite of higher difficulty constitutes an improvement.
As far as Hedo, what are you gonna do? Leave Rashard Lewis or Dwight Howard single covered? I don’t have stats to back up this assertion, but I believe Hedo was doubled less this year and that allowed him to score more.
Monta Ellis though… that kid played some serious basketball this season. He has a ridiculously high FG% for a Guard.
P.S. Is there a “% of possessions where a player is double teamed” statistic? If not, there needs to be.
Some Guy // April 30, 2008 at 6:45 am
Nathan- In defense of the Hedo selection, I think it has as much to do with the raw numbers as it has to do with him becoming an on court leader. You could argue he plays the point forward role and is more vital to offensive facilitation than Nelson, and he is the go-to-guy in the 4th for the Magic.
I also think some asterisks are in order; did Kaman really improve his game or did he put up inflated numbers due to the absence of Brand? Ditto for Jamison with Arenas. As for Channing Frye, putting up great numbers in one week of a season after riding the pine all year does not a ‘most improved’ candidate make.
The scary part of all this- Lebron still makes the list. How much better can he get?
Nathan // April 30, 2008 at 9:09 am
I’m sorry, what about Channing Frye?
Nathan // April 30, 2008 at 9:15 am
Oh, the failures of text to relay emotion…
What I meant by the above is “I’m sorry, what are you talking about? Channing Frye is LMA’s backup and was most assuredly not in discussion for MIP award, although he did improve from his NY campaign. So why are you mentioning him?
Some Guy // April 30, 2008 at 9:42 am
The only part of my comment directed at you was the Hedo, the rest was just general feedback. Sorry if I was unclear.
Frye is #12 on the MIP data list. I mention him along with those I believe are more of situational aberrations than real player improvement.
antonio // April 30, 2008 at 9:47 am
i have not seen it on the website but i have seen many who have a vote talk about it. They say that is who you are supposed to vote for. Turkoglu was not an up and coming player, but he was a break-out player that in terms of media perception and fan perception (not WoW), he was never considered a star player or borderline star player, and now he is.
antonio // April 30, 2008 at 9:49 am
If I am not clear, I meant to say many writers who have a vote write about it (that the award is supposed to go to an up and coming player, breakout player, not an old player who was injured or someone who is already considered a star).
Devin // April 30, 2008 at 2:45 pm
I think the difference between someone like Wade and Hedo is that if Wade has a huge season next year, it’s not really an improvement. He was injured this season — he’s already seen as a superstar. If he reverts back to that next season, it’s not “Most Improved” per se, but rather just coming back to form after an injury. He was a superstar before this year, and will likely be seen as a superstar next year.
As for Hedo, he’s a vet, but he’s had a relatively static career. Never anything to great, a good starter, or great 6th man, but this year he has turned into a “star” caliber players. You’ve got years of average and then a great season. To me, that certainly warrants MIP consideration, and I agree with him winning it.
With that said, I think the addition of Rashard, in terms of his affect on elevating Hedo’s play, has been severely overlooked. Quite often the other team’s best wing defender would be assigned to Rashard, with Hedo getting the other. This combined with the fact that Rashard’s presence way out to the 3pt line (and not commanding the ball in his hands) did wonders for elevating Hedo’s play.
Personally, I find it unfortunate that everyone’s focus tends to be on Rashard’s salary and individual production while failing to make the connection between Hedo’s improved play and Rashard’s presence, but I digress.
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