The following NBA cities have never hosted an NBA championship parade: Atlanta, Charlotte, Cleveland, Dallas, Denver, East Rutherford (New Jersey), Indianapolis, Memphis, New Orleans, Orlando, Phoenix, Sacramento, Salt Lake City, and Toronto. In all, of the 29 cities hosting a team, 14 – or 48.3% — have never won a title.
If we focus on franchises, the following have also never won a title: Bobcats, Cavaliers, Clippers, Grizzlies, Hornets, Jazz, Magic, Mavericks, Nets, Nuggets, Pacers, Raptors, Suns, and Timberwolves. Again, we have 14 teams, or 46.7% of the 30 NBA franchises.
Why do I bring this up today?
Last night the Spurs eliminated the Hornets. This means that the population of those who have never won is going to remain unchanged for another year.
And the dominance of the top franchises in NBA history is guaranteed to continue.
The NBA’s Final Four now consists of the Spurs, Lakers, Pistons, and Celtics. Of the 61 titles in NBA history, the Spurs have won 4; the Lakers (in LA and Minnesota) have won 14; the Pistons have won 3, and the Celtics have won 16. In all, these four teams have won 37 titles, or 61% of the titles in NBA history.
All of this suggests that the NBA has an historic problem with uncertainty of outcome or competitive balance. Relative to the other major North American sports (football, baseball, and hockey), we see less variation in teams winning the title in basketball.
When we look at the variation in wins across a single season, we see the same problem with competitive balance. The standard deviation of winning percentage in the NBA this past season was 0.169. If teams were equal in strength, the standard deviation of winning percentage would be 0.055. The ratio of these two values – standard deviation relative to the ideal standard deviation (what we call the Noll-Scully measure) – is 3.05. The same ratio in the American and National League last season was 1.69 and 1.33 respectively. In the most recent NHL season we saw a ratio of 1.04 while the NFL had a mark of 1.66 in 2007. These values are not tremendously different from what we have seen in recent years. Relative to the other North American sports leagues, the NBA is not very balance in the regular season.
In sum, the NBA is not nearly as competitive as the other major North American professional sports leagues. We see this when we look at the distribution of championships. And we see this in the distribution of wins in the regular season.
Readers of The Wages of Wins know our explanation for this result. The Short Supply of Tall People. Rather than re-hash this story again, though, I think I will just direct you to an excerpt from the book posted in November of 2006.
The Short Supply of Tall People
So the NBA has a competitive balance problem. Does this mean the NBA is in trouble?
Nope. Again, here is a post from a few weeks ago detailing all that is right about the NBA.
The above post notes that attendance in recent years has gone up. Television ratings also appear to be on the rise. And here is one more feature of the NBA that should make you happy. The Detroit Pistons have a good chance of winning an NBA title in 2008.
Okay, that just makes me happy. And as long as the Celtics continue to have problems, it will keep making me happy.
Speaking of the Celtics, what is wrong with that team? On that subject I will try and comment later today.
- DJ
9 responses so far ↓
Brian // May 20, 2008 at 10:21 am
Let me propose a few alternate theories regarding competitive balance in the NBA.
1. There are many new expansion teams. In an NBA with perfect competitive balance, each team would win a championship once every 30 years on average. But some would win slightly more often and some slightly less often just due to natural randomness. The effect would be to leave a sizable number of franchises still without a championship.
2. The format of the game itself reduces the possibility of very many upsets. The NBA version of basketball is 8 minutes longer than college and has a quicker shot clock. Consequently, there are many more possessions for each team in every game. If the better team has a slight advantage on every possession, the high-possession format means the better team will very likely come out on top. Fewer upsets mean that dynasties would persist, such as the Celtics, Lakers, Bulls, and recently the Spurs.
3. Also bolstering dynasties is the playoff format. A 7-game series in a sport that already favors the better team will limit upsets. Just like with possessions in a game, the longer the series the higher the chance the better team will ultimately prevail.
4. Large-market shenanigans. Pau Gasol and others. Need I say more?
5. Of the major North American team sports, the NBA requires the fewest number of primary players (starters + top bench players) on each team. Compare that to the NFL which requires 22+ primary players. The more players on the field/court the more individual talent levels average out across a team. The relative variance of talent levels in the NFL is going to be much smaller than the NBA because the talent level is averaged among a larger team.
Golf and tennis are two major sports that are individually based, so unit talent levels in those sports do not have to be averaged among teammates. They would accordingly have the largest variance of talent levels of major sports. This is what allows players like Federer, Sampras, Navratilova, Woods, Nicklaus, and Palmer to dominate for years.
I’m not sure about the short-supply-of-tall-people explanation. The structural factors above are probably strong enough to explain the state of competitive balance we observe in the NBA, and additional theories would not be required.
Besides, the NBA’s supply of tall people has increased exponentially as the US population increased. Plus, the NBA now recruits from a global player base. Their supply of well-suited athletes has increased several-fold over recent decades, yet the level of competitive balance has not apparently improved.
Tball // May 20, 2008 at 11:45 am
On the ‘what’s wrong with the Celtics question’ – I think everyone’s given an opinion on it and the stats will support some claims and diminish others.
Ray Allen has been ineffective. He has logged significant minutes without producing significant value in any statistical category. I’m more down about the shot attempts than shooting percentage because the lack of shot attempts indicate to me that he is not getting in the flow of the offensive game. The C’s are currently running out the story that he’s been covered and is rotating the ball rather than take a bad shot. But for all his minutes, it is on him to get himself some separation from his defender to receive a pass and take an open shot. After leading the team in minutes in the regular season and being second to Garnett in playoff minutes and having a limited season last year with off-season surgery in between, I think he’s just hit a wall.
Ray’s Regular season (game averages from ESPN.com) – 2.5/6.2 beyond the arc, 3.5/7.3 within the arc.
Ray vs. Hawks, postseason – 2.6/6.4 beyond the arc, within the arc – 3.4/7.9
Ray vs. Cavs, postseason – 0.6/3.4 beyond the arc, 2.3/5.3 within the arc
Also, his rebounds, turnovers, steals, free throws and assists are down despite increased minutes in the postseason – he is simply not involved.
Bench use – Rondo has been on the bench for stretches of 10-15 game minutes in favor of Cassell. House has had trouble getting off the pine. Powe’s minutes have been inconsistent. Glenn Davis played 17 minutes in Game 6 against the Cavs, but was a DNP – Coach’s decision in Game 7. Tony Allen averaged 18 minutes per game in the regular season, but less than 5 mpg in the playoffs with 4 DNP-CDs. Somebody needed to spell Ray Allen more frequently. Doc is having trouble identifying the players that give him the best chance to win.
Perkins was slacking off Z on the defensive end in the first couple of games to provide help defense and rebounding near the basket. Z scored efficiently, so Perkins was sent to defend Z on the perimeter. Z’s scoring dropped, but Perkins was no longer rebounding or providing help defense. With no offensive game, I am not sure he should have been starting (or playing 20+ minutes). He averaged 4 points, 3 boards, and 1 block per game over the last 4 games against the Cavs, compared to 8/6/2 for the Atlanta series in comparable minutes. I mention him because I expect him to be much more effective against the Pistons. I think the Celtics have a rebounding advantage they need to exploit, particularly on the offensive glass to create high percentage scoring opportunities.
Tball // May 20, 2008 at 11:47 am
On the ‘what’s wrong with the Celtics question’ – I think everyone’s given an opinion on it and the stats will support some claims and diminish others.
Ray Allen has been ineffective. He has logged significant minutes without producing significant value in any statistical category. I’m more down about the shot attempts than shooting percentage because the lack of shot attempts indicate to me that he is not getting in the flow of the offensive game. The C’s are currently running out the story that he’s been covered and is rotating the ball rather than take a bad shot. But for all his minutes, it is on him to get himself some separation from his defender to receive a pass and take an open shot. After leading the team in minutes in the regular season and being second to Garnett in playoff minutes and having a limited season last year with off-season surgery in between, I think he’s just hit a wall.
Ray’s Regular season (game averages from ESPN.com) – 2.5/6.2 beyond the arc, 3.5/7.3 within the arc.
Ray vs. Hawks, postseason – 2.6/6.4 beyond the arc, within the arc – 3.4/7.9
Ray vs. Cavs, postseason – 0.6/3.4 beyond the arc, 2.3/5.3 within the arc
Also, his rebounds, turnovers, steals, free throws and assists are down despite increased minutes in the postseason – he is simply not involved.
Bench use – Rondo has been on the bench for stretches of 10-15 game minutes in favor of Cassell. House has had trouble getting off the pine. Powe’s minutes have been inconsistent. Glenn Davis played 17 minutes in Game 6 against the Cavs, but was a DNP – Coach’s decision in Game 7. Tony Allen averaged 18 minutes per game in the regular season, but less than 5 mpg in the playoffs with 4 DNP-CDs. Somebody needed to spell Ray Allen more frequently. Doc is having trouble identifying the players that give him the best chance to win.
Perkins was slacking off Z on the defensive end in the first couple of games to provide help defense and rebounding near the basket. Z scored efficiently, so Perkins was sent to defend Z on the perimeter. Z’s scoring dropped, but Perkins was no longer rebounding or providing help defense. With no offensive game, I am not sure he should have been starting (or playing 20+ minutes). He averaged 4 points, 3 boards, and 1 block per game over the last 4 games against the Cavs, compared to 8/6/2 for the Atlanta series in comparable minutes. I mention him because I expect him to be much more effective against the Pistons. I think the Celtics have a rebounding advantage they need to exploit, particularly on the offensive glass to create high percentage scoring opportunities.
Tball // May 20, 2008 at 12:06 pm
On the short supply of tall people, I agree with much of what Brian said, but I’d add that an NBA player’s peak can run 12-15 seasons unless affected by serious injury or an affinity for minor league baseball. In football, many players only have a peak that spans 3-7 seasons before diminishing skills or health slow them down. Similarly, baseball players peak from 27-30, at which point their skills decline until they move to San Francisco.
Bill Russell, Kareem, Magic, Bird, Shaq, Duncan, MJ, et al. give their teams a large window to contend for championships because they maintain their peak for so long. Johan, Pujols, ARod, Terrell Davis, Priest Holmes, and Marshall Faulk cannot expect to duplicate that (although there are expections to the rule).
PS – I didn’t hit submit twice, so I’m not sure why my previous post went up twice, but I’m sorry for the annoyance.
Mountain // May 20, 2008 at 12:10 pm
What is the Noll-Scully measure for NBA since implementation of a salary cap? Under last 2 CBAs? Compared to other sports under their current frameworks?
Harold Almonte // May 20, 2008 at 6:44 pm
Why the same traditional winning teams appears to reborn and rebuild a new dinasty every two decades?. Why loser teams, are also routinely draft losers, even having an advantage on selecting possible and clear HOF players?
I think the competitive balance problems begin inside the owners and GM’s offices, the rest just runs automatic.
Tball // May 21, 2008 at 12:14 pm
I would agree with Harold that part of the competitive balance issue is the GMs. Red Auerbach and Jerry West are responsible for an unusually high percentage of NBA championships, if you look at who acquired the players that made their teams champions (although I am not sure how much inspiration was required to take Kareem and Shaq from other clubs, others couldn’t/didn’t swing it).
I would also mention that only three franchises can be seen as rebuilding dynasties, those being the Celtics, Lakers, and Pistons. The Spurs are a Duncan-based dynasty, just as the Bulls were MJ-based.
I think only one of the four remaining teams can credit even half of this seasons wins to players they selected in the draft with their own draft picks. Generally, unless you select the best player in the draft and that best players becomes a first or second All-NBA type player, it seems easier to build a championship team through free agency than through the draft.
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