I would also mention that only three franchises can be seen as rebuilding dynasties, those being the Celtics, Lakers, and Pistons. The Spurs are a Duncan-based dynasty, just as the Bulls were MJ-based.

I think only one of the four remaining teams can credit even half of this seasons wins to players they selected in the draft with their own draft picks. Generally, unless you select the best player in the draft and that best players becomes a first or second All-NBA type player, it seems easier to build a championship team through free agency than through the draft.

Bill Russell, Kareem, Magic, Bird, Shaq, Duncan, MJ, et al. give their teams a large window to contend for championships because they maintain their peak for so long. Johan, Pujols, ARod, Terrell Davis, Priest Holmes, and Marshall Faulk cannot expect to duplicate that (although there are expections to the rule).

PS – I didn’t hit submit twice, so I’m not sure why my previous post went up twice, but I’m sorry for the annoyance.

Ray Allen has been ineffective. He has logged significant minutes without producing significant value in any statistical category. I’m more down about the shot attempts than shooting percentage because the lack of shot attempts indicate to me that he is not getting in the flow of the offensive game. The C’s are currently running out the story that he’s been covered and is rotating the ball rather than take a bad shot. But for all his minutes, it is on him to get himself some separation from his defender to receive a pass and take an open shot. After leading the team in minutes in the regular season and being second to Garnett in playoff minutes and having a limited season last year with off-season surgery in between, I think he’s just hit a wall.

Ray’s Regular season (game averages from ESPN.com) – 2.5/6.2 beyond the arc, 3.5/7.3 within the arc.
Ray vs. Hawks, postseason – 2.6/6.4 beyond the arc, within the arc – 3.4/7.9
Ray vs. Cavs, postseason – 0.6/3.4 beyond the arc, 2.3/5.3 within the arc
Also, his rebounds, turnovers, steals, free throws and assists are down despite increased minutes in the postseason – he is simply not involved.

Bench use – Rondo has been on the bench for stretches of 10-15 game minutes in favor of Cassell. House has had trouble getting off the pine. Powe’s minutes have been inconsistent. Glenn Davis played 17 minutes in Game 6 against the Cavs, but was a DNP – Coach’s decision in Game 7. Tony Allen averaged 18 minutes per game in the regular season, but less than 5 mpg in the playoffs with 4 DNP-CDs. Somebody needed to spell Ray Allen more frequently. Doc is having trouble identifying the players that give him the best chance to win.

Perkins was slacking off Z on the defensive end in the first couple of games to provide help defense and rebounding near the basket. Z scored efficiently, so Perkins was sent to defend Z on the perimeter. Z’s scoring dropped, but Perkins was no longer rebounding or providing help defense. With no offensive game, I am not sure he should have been starting (or playing 20+ minutes). He averaged 4 points, 3 boards, and 1 block per game over the last 4 games against the Cavs, compared to 8/6/2 for the Atlanta series in comparable minutes. I mention him because I expect him to be much more effective against the Pistons. I think the Celtics have a rebounding advantage they need to exploit, particularly on the offensive glass to create high percentage scoring opportunities.

Ray Allen has been ineffective. He has logged significant minutes without producing significant value in any statistical category. I’m more down about the shot attempts than shooting percentage because the lack of shot attempts indicate to me that he is not getting in the flow of the offensive game. The C’s are currently running out the story that he’s been covered and is rotating the ball rather than take a bad shot. But for all his minutes, it is on him to get himself some separation from his defender to receive a pass and take an open shot. After leading the team in minutes in the regular season and being second to Garnett in playoff minutes and having a limited season last year with off-season surgery in between, I think he’s just hit a wall.

Ray’s Regular season (game averages from ESPN.com) – 2.5/6.2 beyond the arc, 3.5/7.3 within the arc.
Ray vs. Hawks, postseason – 2.6/6.4 beyond the arc, within the arc – 3.4/7.9
Ray vs. Cavs, postseason – 0.6/3.4 beyond the arc, 2.3/5.3 within the arc
Also, his rebounds, turnovers, steals, free throws and assists are down despite increased minutes in the postseason – he is simply not involved.

Bench use – Rondo has been on the bench for stretches of 10-15 game minutes in favor of Cassell. House has had trouble getting off the pine. Powe’s minutes have been inconsistent. Glenn Davis played 17 minutes in Game 6 against the Cavs, but was a DNP – Coach’s decision in Game 7. Tony Allen averaged 18 minutes per game in the regular season, but less than 5 mpg in the playoffs with 4 DNP-CDs. Somebody needed to spell Ray Allen more frequently. Doc is having trouble identifying the players that give him the best chance to win.

Perkins was slacking off Z on the defensive end in the first couple of games to provide help defense and rebounding near the basket. Z scored efficiently, so Perkins was sent to defend Z on the perimeter. Z’s scoring dropped, but Perkins was no longer rebounding or providing help defense. With no offensive game, I am not sure he should have been starting (or playing 20+ minutes). He averaged 4 points, 3 boards, and 1 block per game over the last 4 games against the Cavs, compared to 8/6/2 for the Atlanta series in comparable minutes. I mention him because I expect him to be much more effective against the Pistons. I think the Celtics have a rebounding advantage they need to exploit, particularly on the offensive glass to create high percentage scoring opportunities.

1. There are many new expansion teams. In an NBA with perfect competitive balance, each team would win a championship once every 30 years on average. But some would win slightly more often and some slightly less often just due to natural randomness. The effect would be to leave a sizable number of franchises still without a championship.

2. The format of the game itself reduces the possibility of very many upsets. The NBA version of basketball is 8 minutes longer than college and has a quicker shot clock. Consequently, there are many more possessions for each team in every game. If the better team has a slight advantage on every possession, the high-possession format means the better team will very likely come out on top. Fewer upsets mean that dynasties would persist, such as the Celtics, Lakers, Bulls, and recently the Spurs.

3. Also bolstering dynasties is the playoff format. A 7-game series in a sport that already favors the better team will limit upsets. Just like with possessions in a game, the longer the series the higher the chance the better team will ultimately prevail.

4. Large-market shenanigans. Pau Gasol and others. Need I say more?

5. Of the major North American team sports, the NBA requires the fewest number of primary players (starters + top bench players) on each team. Compare that to the NFL which requires 22+ primary players. The more players on the field/court the more individual talent levels average out across a team. The relative variance of talent levels in the NFL is going to be much smaller than the NBA because the talent level is averaged among a larger team.

Golf and tennis are two major sports that are individually based, so unit talent levels in those sports do not have to be averaged among teammates. They would accordingly have the largest variance of talent levels of major sports. This is what allows players like Federer, Sampras, Navratilova, Woods, Nicklaus, and Palmer to dominate for years.

I’m not sure about the short-supply-of-tall-people explanation. The structural factors above are probably strong enough to explain the state of competitive balance we observe in the NBA, and additional theories would not be required.

Besides, the NBA’s supply of tall people has increased exponentially as the US population increased. Plus, the NBA now recruits from a global player base. Their supply of well-suited athletes has increased several-fold over recent decades, yet the level of competitive balance has not apparently improved.