Game Two Thoughts: More on Powe and Kobe

In the regular season Leon Powe posted a 13.68 Win Score per 48 minutes [WS48].  WS48 for an average power forward is 10.45, so Powe’s PAWS48 [Position Adjusted Win Score per 48 minutes] was 3.23.  And that would be very good.

Across the first three rounds the playoffs, though, Powe’s WS48 fell to 5.31.  This results in a PAWS48 of -5.14.  Of course that is very, very bad.  As noted a few days ago, although most people focused on the struggles of Ray Allen in explaining Boston’s post-season problems, it was the decline of Powe that was the bigger issue for the Celtics.

And now we have reached the NBA Finals.  Powe only played nine minutes in Game One.  But in these nine minutes he grabbed four rebounds, hit his only field goal attempt, hit both of his free throw attempts, and only committed one personal foul.  All of this means his WS48 and PAWS48 stood at 29.3 and 18.9 respectively. 

Again, Powe only played nine minutes. So his PAWS was only 3.5.  Still, this mark was only eclipsed by Paul Pierce (the hero of Game One).

In Game Two Powe appears to have played even better. In fifteen minutes he made six of seven field goal attempts and nine of thirteen shots from the free throw line.  In all, he scored 21 points.  Such a performance clearly was a main topic in the post-game discussion.

But when we look at all his stats we see a couple of issues.  In fifteen minutes Powe committed four personal fouls.  At this rate, he would have fouled out of the game in less than eight more minutes.  Plus, he only grabbed two rebounds.  Yes, a power forward was on the court for fifteen minutes and only grabbed two boards (that would be well below average).

Now when you make six out of seven shots you are going to have a “good” game.  Despite the failure to rebound, Powe’s WS48 was an amazing 24.0.  His PAWS48 of 13.6 was the top mark in the game.  But I think many observers would guess that Powe’s per-minute contribution in Game Two eclipsed what he did in Game One.  And the numbers suggest otherwise.  In both games Powe was amazing.  He just did a bit more on a per-minute basis in the first contest.

The Top Players in Game Two

Okay, enough on Powe.  What of the other participants in the game? 

Table One: Analyzing Game Two of the 2008 NBA Finals

Table One indicates that Boston was again led in PAWS by Paul Pierce, who posted a mark of 4.6.  Boston was also helped by the play of James Posey (4.4 PAWS), Rajon Rondo (4.4 PAWS), and Powe (4.2 PAWS).  The big men – P.J. Brown, Kevin Garnett, and Kendrick Perkins – all hovered around the average mark; while Ray Allen and Sam Cassell were each below average.

Turning to the Lakers… Derrick Fisher led the Lakers in Game One with a PAWS of 2.6.  In Game Two, three Lakers – Pau Gasol, Vladimir Radmanovic, and Kobe Bryant –  all bested Fisher’s mark in Game One.  Gasol was above average in Game One, and also in the first three rounds of the playoffs and the regular season.  Radmanovic was also above average in Game One, but decidedly below average in the first three rounds of the playoffs and the regular season.  So if past performance means something, we can expect Gasol to keep playing well while a decline in Radmanovic’s production will not surprise.

The Kobe Story

And then we have Kobe.  Here is what Kobe has done against the Celtics in 2007-08:

November 23 (at Boston): 5.2 [WS48], -1.0 [PAWS48]

December 30 (at LA): -7.8 [WS48], -14.0 [PAWS48]

Game One NBA Finals: -3.4 [WS48], -9.6 [PAWS48]

In 82 regular season games, Kobe was only below average 21 times (yes, he is pretty good). Against Boston, though, he was below average every time.

At least, that was true until Game Two.  In Game Two, Kobe posted a WS48 and PAWS48 of 10.8 and 3.8 respectively.  So Kobe was finally above average.

And now he is headed back to LA.  Of course, if you look at the above numbers you will note that Kobe’s worst game against Boston occurred in LA.  In fact, this game occurred in a stretch of 12 contests where LA’s only loss was at home against Boston.  This was also Kobe’s worst game of the season (and it happened after a night off).

In sum, it’s not necessarily the case that Kobe and the Lakers will play better in LA.  Unfortunately, if they do not, they have no hope of taking this series back to Boston.  And if that doesn’t happen, the Lakers have no hope of winning a title in 2008.

Of course, if Andrew Bynum comes back and is productive, the Lakers will probably win the whole thing next year.  In other words, even two more losses to Boston in the next few days just postpones Phil Jackson’s 10^th title (and Kobe’s 4th).

- DJ

The WoW Journal Comments Policy

Our research on the NBA was summarized HERE.

The Technical Notes at wagesofwins.com provides substantially more information on the published research behind Wins Produced and Win Score

Wins Produced, Win Score, and PAWSmin are also discussed in the following posts:

Simple Models of Player Performance

Wins Produced vs. Win Score

What Wins Produced Says and What It Does Not Say

Introducing PAWSmin — and a Defense of Box Score Statistics

Finally, A Guide to Evaluating Models contains useful hints on how to interpret and evaluate statistical models.