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	<title>Comments on: The Bogut Economy</title>
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	<link>http://dberri.wordpress.com/2008/07/10/the-bogut-economy/</link>
	<description>More Stories from The Wages of Wins</description>
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		<title>By: Worth the Money – the Bogut and Okafor Story &#171; The Wages of Wins Journal</title>
		<link>http://dberri.wordpress.com/2008/07/10/the-bogut-economy/#comment-60483</link>
		<dc:creator>Worth the Money – the Bogut and Okafor Story &#171; The Wages of Wins Journal</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 29 Dec 2008 00:00:06 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://dberri.wordpress.com/?p=851#comment-60483</guid>
		<description>[...] I get to that story, I should note that I commented on each player&#8217;s deal last summer (see The Bogut Economy and Okafor Finally Signs). At the time I noted that both players were above average, but Okafor has [...]</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>[...] I get to that story, I should note that I commented on each player&#8217;s deal last summer (see The Bogut Economy and Okafor Finally Signs). At the time I noted that both players were above average, but Okafor has [...]</p>
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		<title>By: Okafor Finally Signs &#171; The Wages of Wins Journal</title>
		<link>http://dberri.wordpress.com/2008/07/10/the-bogut-economy/#comment-58329</link>
		<dc:creator>Okafor Finally Signs &#171; The Wages of Wins Journal</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 30 Jul 2008 06:03:42 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://dberri.wordpress.com/?p=851#comment-58329</guid>
		<description>[...] A few weeks ago the Milwaukee Bucks signed Andrew Bogut for $60 million over five years ($72 million with apparently some hard to reach incentives).   So Bogut and Okafor are both receiving $12 million per season.  [...]</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>[...] A few weeks ago the Milwaukee Bucks signed Andrew Bogut for $60 million over five years ($72 million with apparently some hard to reach incentives).   So Bogut and Okafor are both receiving $12 million per season.  [...]</p>
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		<title>By: Harold Almonte</title>
		<link>http://dberri.wordpress.com/2008/07/10/the-bogut-economy/#comment-58140</link>
		<dc:creator>Harold Almonte</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 15 Jul 2008 17:27:02 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://dberri.wordpress.com/?p=851#comment-58140</guid>
		<description>An additional problem attached to total rebounds, is a problem which is inside all linear metrics based on the boxscore limited offer:  Al positive acomplishments have a negative counterpart to penalize (it&#039;s a zero sum game), except rebounds.  Rebounds allowed is difficult to measure at the player level, and if it were boxscored, it would be more subjective than assists.  Then all metrics show one only face with regard to rebounding, and the only reference is the position average (at grabbing).  That&#039;s not a bad procedure, but like rebounding shows out of scale compared against other (of the 4) factors, rebounding appears as the most important of those factors.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>An additional problem attached to total rebounds, is a problem which is inside all linear metrics based on the boxscore limited offer:  Al positive acomplishments have a negative counterpart to penalize (it&#8217;s a zero sum game), except rebounds.  Rebounds allowed is difficult to measure at the player level, and if it were boxscored, it would be more subjective than assists.  Then all metrics show one only face with regard to rebounding, and the only reference is the position average (at grabbing).  That&#8217;s not a bad procedure, but like rebounding shows out of scale compared against other (of the 4) factors, rebounding appears as the most important of those factors.</p>
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		<title>By: Harold Almonte</title>
		<link>http://dberri.wordpress.com/2008/07/10/the-bogut-economy/#comment-58139</link>
		<dc:creator>Harold Almonte</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 15 Jul 2008 16:54:00 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://dberri.wordpress.com/?p=851#comment-58139</guid>
		<description>&quot;And if WP48 is undervaluing something Duncan and Garnett do, it’s “creating shots” and “good defense without getting a block or a steal.” I believe those are the main attacks on the stat, based on the discussions that have happened repeatedly on this board.&quot;

The main attacks on the metric were an apparent bias to total rebounds, mainly because that &quot;good defense without getting a block or steal&quot; was assigned to the def. rebound stat, by regression.  But, there should be a good correlation between good rebounders and good shot defenders, then when we talk about def. rebounds in this metric, we need to attach the shot defense (bigs end anyway defending the most of shots), the overrating is not as big as one could think.

But, more harmful and less controversial is the fact that scorers are punished not only every time they fail (with a full lost possession), but also every time they made the scoring, because the metric considers a kind of &quot;original sin&quot; that scorers need to take purge for the team &quot;to lose&quot; the possession after the scoring.  Of course that undervalue high usage scorers and is interpreted as undervaluing &#039;creating shots&quot;.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>&#8220;And if WP48 is undervaluing something Duncan and Garnett do, it’s “creating shots” and “good defense without getting a block or a steal.” I believe those are the main attacks on the stat, based on the discussions that have happened repeatedly on this board.&#8221;</p>
<p>The main attacks on the metric were an apparent bias to total rebounds, mainly because that &#8220;good defense without getting a block or steal&#8221; was assigned to the def. rebound stat, by regression.  But, there should be a good correlation between good rebounders and good shot defenders, then when we talk about def. rebounds in this metric, we need to attach the shot defense (bigs end anyway defending the most of shots), the overrating is not as big as one could think.</p>
<p>But, more harmful and less controversial is the fact that scorers are punished not only every time they fail (with a full lost possession), but also every time they made the scoring, because the metric considers a kind of &#8220;original sin&#8221; that scorers need to take purge for the team &#8220;to lose&#8221; the possession after the scoring.  Of course that undervalue high usage scorers and is interpreted as undervaluing &#8216;creating shots&#8221;.</p>
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		<title>By: steve</title>
		<link>http://dberri.wordpress.com/2008/07/10/the-bogut-economy/#comment-58108</link>
		<dc:creator>steve</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 11 Jul 2008 19:03:06 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://dberri.wordpress.com/?p=851#comment-58108</guid>
		<description>I somewhat agree with Jeremy (above), in that Camby is the best, consistent player on the Nuggs. If he was not so old, I would say he is substantially underpaid.  www.betsportsweb.com</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I somewhat agree with Jeremy (above), in that Camby is the best, consistent player on the Nuggs. If he was not so old, I would say he is substantially underpaid.  <a href="http://www.betsportsweb.com" rel="nofollow">http://www.betsportsweb.com</a></p>
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		<title>By: Tim</title>
		<link>http://dberri.wordpress.com/2008/07/10/the-bogut-economy/#comment-58107</link>
		<dc:creator>Tim</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 11 Jul 2008 18:03:47 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://dberri.wordpress.com/?p=851#comment-58107</guid>
		<description>Another question.  If a multi-year contract is guaranteed, isn&#039;t that also worth something to the player?  It&#039;s like disability insurance, which can be quite costly.  Better yet, it also insures against bad performance, which usually isn&#039;t covered by insurance.  So shouldn&#039;t a multi-year guaranteed contract be discounted considerably from what the player would be worth if the contract were not guaranteed?

The comments, for example, note that only $60 million of Bogut&#039;s contract is guaranteed.  That&#039;s still alot, though.  So figuring out a fair contract may not be as simple as multiplying wins produced by $1.67 million.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Another question.  If a multi-year contract is guaranteed, isn&#8217;t that also worth something to the player?  It&#8217;s like disability insurance, which can be quite costly.  Better yet, it also insures against bad performance, which usually isn&#8217;t covered by insurance.  So shouldn&#8217;t a multi-year guaranteed contract be discounted considerably from what the player would be worth if the contract were not guaranteed?</p>
<p>The comments, for example, note that only $60 million of Bogut&#8217;s contract is guaranteed.  That&#8217;s still alot, though.  So figuring out a fair contract may not be as simple as multiplying wins produced by $1.67 million.</p>
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		<title>By: Tim</title>
		<link>http://dberri.wordpress.com/2008/07/10/the-bogut-economy/#comment-58106</link>
		<dc:creator>Tim</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 11 Jul 2008 17:55:51 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://dberri.wordpress.com/?p=851#comment-58106</guid>
		<description>So it&#039;s not that Bogut is or will be overpaid.  It&#039;s that all those other players you listed are exploited, right?  I assume that salary caps on rookies and maximum salaries for veteran superstars are the primary cause, although some players may also be undervalued for other reasons, such as lack of scoring.    

Does the exploitation of rookies and veteran superstars mean that above-average veteran roleplayers should look to be overpaid?  And that teams should consider overpaying them?  Or does it just mean that when they are paid what they are worth, it will look like they are overpaid?</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>So it&#8217;s not that Bogut is or will be overpaid.  It&#8217;s that all those other players you listed are exploited, right?  I assume that salary caps on rookies and maximum salaries for veteran superstars are the primary cause, although some players may also be undervalued for other reasons, such as lack of scoring.    </p>
<p>Does the exploitation of rookies and veteran superstars mean that above-average veteran roleplayers should look to be overpaid?  And that teams should consider overpaying them?  Or does it just mean that when they are paid what they are worth, it will look like they are overpaid?</p>
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		<title>By: Celtics247.com &#187; Blog Archive &#187; Today&#8217;s Links 7/11</title>
		<link>http://dberri.wordpress.com/2008/07/10/the-bogut-economy/#comment-58104</link>
		<dc:creator>Celtics247.com &#187; Blog Archive &#187; Today&#8217;s Links 7/11</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 11 Jul 2008 15:19:45 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://dberri.wordpress.com/?p=851#comment-58104</guid>
		<description>[...] to dump Stephon Marbury in rebuild  Celtics 24/7 Where&#8217;s the source?  Wages of Wins Journal  The Bogut economy Yardbarker Sasha Vujacic guarantees Ball Don&#8217;t Lie Phenomenal Swag: Lakers &#8216;07-08 [...]</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>[...] to dump Stephon Marbury in rebuild  Celtics 24/7 Where&#8217;s the source?  Wages of Wins Journal  The Bogut economy Yardbarker Sasha Vujacic guarantees Ball Don&#8217;t Lie Phenomenal Swag: Lakers &#8216;07-08 [...]</p>
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		<title>By: Jeremy</title>
		<link>http://dberri.wordpress.com/2008/07/10/the-bogut-economy/#comment-58100</link>
		<dc:creator>Jeremy</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 11 Jul 2008 05:46:01 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://dberri.wordpress.com/?p=851#comment-58100</guid>
		<description>Come on now Jim.  PER is garbage.  Hollingers PER stats gave him the Lakers in 6 in the finals.  Obviously there is a major flaw there.  Wages picked the Celtics to win at the beginning of the season, playoffs, and finals.  Nailed it.

Also. Marcus Camby is an absolutely awesome, dominant player on the boards, and is arguably the best defensive player in the planey.  Before you start trying to look smart and bring up the &quot;infallability&quot; of this site, I challenge YOU to read the &quot;tragedies of KG and Paul Pierce,&quot; and watch a Nuggets game or two.  

You wont find many people on the planet who would say Camby is the best player on that team, but he is, by a long shot.  If you are going to bring something to the table, use concrete numbers, or at least make a compelling point for why Duncan is superior to Camby other than having far superior teammates and being a bigger scorer.  

Sounds to me like you are fallible like everyone else who watches hoops.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Come on now Jim.  PER is garbage.  Hollingers PER stats gave him the Lakers in 6 in the finals.  Obviously there is a major flaw there.  Wages picked the Celtics to win at the beginning of the season, playoffs, and finals.  Nailed it.</p>
<p>Also. Marcus Camby is an absolutely awesome, dominant player on the boards, and is arguably the best defensive player in the planey.  Before you start trying to look smart and bring up the &#8220;infallability&#8221; of this site, I challenge YOU to read the &#8220;tragedies of KG and Paul Pierce,&#8221; and watch a Nuggets game or two.  </p>
<p>You wont find many people on the planet who would say Camby is the best player on that team, but he is, by a long shot.  If you are going to bring something to the table, use concrete numbers, or at least make a compelling point for why Duncan is superior to Camby other than having far superior teammates and being a bigger scorer.  </p>
<p>Sounds to me like you are fallible like everyone else who watches hoops.</p>
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		<title>By: Anon</title>
		<link>http://dberri.wordpress.com/2008/07/10/the-bogut-economy/#comment-58098</link>
		<dc:creator>Anon</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 11 Jul 2008 04:14:49 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://dberri.wordpress.com/?p=851#comment-58098</guid>
		<description>Not that I necessarily think Camby is better than Kevin Garnett, but I believe it has been argued that one of the major failings of PER is that it basically is just a measure of popular perception.  Regardless of whether or not WP48 is truly a useful stat, it&#039;s pretty obvious that it&#039;s superior to PER, at least in my mind.  

Camby isn&#039;t a good scorer, but he&#039;s pretty good at everything else, and is almost definitely one of the most underrated players in the league.  He is never really on bad teams.  He&#039;s a great complementary player. 

And if WP48 is undervaluing something Duncan and Garnett do, it&#039;s &quot;creating shots&quot; and &quot;good defense without getting a block or a steal.&quot;  I believe those are the main attacks on the stat, based on the discussions that have happened repeatedly on this board.

Regarding the Bogut deal, it&#039;s not totally unreasonable, and as a Bucks fan, I like that they&#039;ve secured a good solid center.  It&#039;s a harder position to fill than SG or SF or something, because of the &quot;short supply of tall people.&quot;</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Not that I necessarily think Camby is better than Kevin Garnett, but I believe it has been argued that one of the major failings of PER is that it basically is just a measure of popular perception.  Regardless of whether or not WP48 is truly a useful stat, it&#8217;s pretty obvious that it&#8217;s superior to PER, at least in my mind.  </p>
<p>Camby isn&#8217;t a good scorer, but he&#8217;s pretty good at everything else, and is almost definitely one of the most underrated players in the league.  He is never really on bad teams.  He&#8217;s a great complementary player. </p>
<p>And if WP48 is undervaluing something Duncan and Garnett do, it&#8217;s &#8220;creating shots&#8221; and &#8220;good defense without getting a block or a steal.&#8221;  I believe those are the main attacks on the stat, based on the discussions that have happened repeatedly on this board.</p>
<p>Regarding the Bogut deal, it&#8217;s not totally unreasonable, and as a Bucks fan, I like that they&#8217;ve secured a good solid center.  It&#8217;s a harder position to fill than SG or SF or something, because of the &#8220;short supply of tall people.&#8221;</p>
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