The Amazing Matt Ryan

Here are the quarterback and running back rankings for Week Eight.

Table One: Quarterback Rankings for Week Eight

Table Two: Running Back Rankings for Week Eight

One of the big stories in the first half of the season is the play of Matt Ryan.  Ryan was selected with the third overall choice of the 2008 NFL draft.  The Falcons wasted no time getting him on the field, starting him from the opening snap of the season. 

Across the first seven games, Ryan has posted the following stats:

• Net Points per Play: 0.215
• Wins Produced per Play: 0.536
• QB Score per Play: 2.49

To put these numbers in perspective, here is what an NFL quarterback – from 1994 to 2007 – averaged with respect to these metrics:

• Net Points per Play: 0.160
• Wins Produced per Play: 0.410
• QB Score per Play: 1.87

In sum, Ryan has been above average.  Of course – if you are a glass half-empty kind of person – you might focus on the fact Ryan is only ranked 15^th in the NFL this season.  So Ryan is above average, but he’s still not a top 10 quarterback in the league.

But for a rookie, just being above average is amazing.  From 1994 to 2007, there were 36 quarterbacks taken in the draft in the spring who attempted at least 100 passes in the fall.  Of these 36 quarterbacks, only two – Ben Roethlisberger and Charlie Batch – managed to post an above average Net Points per Play. And of these two, Roethlisberger – with a per-play mark of 0.224 — was the only one to surpass what we have seen from Ryan in 2008. 

Obviously the average rookie quarterback is quite bad.  How bad?  The aforementioned sample of 36 quarterbacks has a 0.066 average Net Points per play.  Only four quarterbacks in 2008 – Jon Kitna, Tyler Thigpen, Brian Griese, and Ryan Fitzpatrick – have failed to surpass the 0.066 mark.  And none of these four are considered the quarterback of their team’s future. 

Hence – despite Atlanta’s experience with Ryan – rookie quarterbacks tend to be very bad. And this needs to be remembered as our thoughts turn to the NFL draft. 

Yes, I know.  Most NFL fans still think there is quite a bit of season left to play.  But Detroit fans (and I am one) are thinking of the 2009 draft.  And what we see from rookie quarterbacks tells us that the Lions – if they want to be more competitive next year – might want to look at another position.  Or in other words, if the Lions take Matt Stafford or Sam Bradford (or anyone else) in the first round – and the rookie plays – I will spend much of next season thinking about the 2010 draft.

Fortunately, it looks like the Lions might look elsewhere with their two first round picks in 2009.  It looks like Daunte Culpepper might sign, giving Detroit a veteran who can produce (at least he did before he got hurt).  And Dan Orlovsky has so far been above average.  Finally, Detroit fans (but not the coaches) have high hopes for Drew Stanton.  

Although Detroit might (and should) look at another position, some bad team is going to select one of the top college quarterbacks in the first round of the 2009 draft.  Fans of this team are going to think their team has found another Matt Ryan. History, though, teaches us that this is unlikely.  Rookie quarterbacks are almost always awful.  And that’s what makes Ryan so amazing.

- DJ

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For more on the Wages of Wins football metrics see

The New QB Score

Consistent Inconsistency in Football

Football Outsiders and QB Score

The Value of Player Statistics in the NFL