When Malcolm Gladwell reviewed The Wages of Wins in the New Yorker, he highlighted one particular story in our book. Allen Iverson – a player considered by many to be one of the greatest players to ever play the game – does not actually produce many wins. At least, not as many wins as you would expect from one of the “greatest”.
This is much of the last paragraph to Gladwell’s review:
It’s hard not to wonder, after reading “The Wages of Wins,” about the other instances in which we defer to the evaluations of experts. Boards of directors vote to pay C.E.O.s tens of millions of dollars, ostensibly because they believe-on the basis of what they have learned over the years by watching other C.E.O.s-that they are worth it. But so what? We see Allen Iverson, over and over again, charge toward the basket, twisting and turning and writhing through a thicket of arms and legs of much taller and heavier men-and all we learn is to appreciate twisting and turning and writhing. We become dance critics, blind to Iverson’s dismal shooting percentage and his excessive turnovers, blind to the reality that the Philadelphia 76ers would be better off without him.
As Gladwell noted, “the Philadelphia 76ers would be better off without him”. It’s important to remember that Gladwell wrote these words before we got to see Philadelphia without Iverson. And it’s important to note that what he said turned out to be true. Philadelphia – as the following posts indicate (and these three are just a sample of the Iverson coverage in this forum) – got better once Iverson departed.
Creating Shots in Philadelphia
Better Experts Needed: More on an article in the Philadelphia City Paper
The Answer Comes to Detroit
Two years ago Iverson was traded by Philadelphia to Denver. Some people – following the logic that Iverson is one of the greatest players to ever play the game — expected Iverson to transform the Denver Nuggets into a title contender.
The numbers suggested otherwise. Adding Iverson to the Nuggets was not going to be enough for Denver to close the gap with the very top teams in the West. The inability of this team to contend – when many people thought it would happen – got these people thinking that George Karl should be fired. After all, with such a “great player” it was hard for fans of Denver to understand how the Nuggets couldn’t win a playoff series. Hence, many people blamed the coach (see Fire George Karl?).
Rather than fire the coach, though, Denver has decided to end the Iverson experiment. This week the Nuggets sent Iverson to the Detroit Pistons for Chauncey Billups, Antonio McDyess, and Cheik Samb.
As Jerry Seinfeld notes, in the end all sports fans are simply rooting for clothes. We are fans of the athletes who wear the uniform of our team. We are less excited about players wearing different clothes. Consequently, as a fan of the Pistons (as frequently noted, I was born in Detroit), this trade means I am now a fan of Allen Iverson.
Now that I am a fan of Iverson, let me tell you why he’s so great. Iverson is very good at getting to the free throw line, he’s good at getting steals, and he avoids personal fouls. All of these are positives. If we look at Wins Produced, we see that across the last four seasons Iverson has produced 31.9 wins. His WP48 across these four seasons is 0.123, which is above average (average is 0.100). So clearly he helps and that’s why he is one of my favorite players.
Of course if I look at this objective (i.e. not as a fan), I would note that Iverson is simply not as productive as Billups. A few weeks ago I argued that Billups was more productive than Isiah Thomas. In that discussion I posted the following table comparing Billups, Thomas, and Iverson.
Table One: Comparing Chauncey Billups, Isiah Thomas, and Allen Iverson
The career numbers of each player indicates that both Thomas and Billups produced more than Iverson (and Billups offered more than Thomas).
If we look at Wins Produced -again, focusing on just the last four years – Billups produced 58.0 wins with a 0.257 WP48. Yes, Billups was the most productive player in Detroit. And no, Iverson is not going to make up for the loss of Mr. Big Shot.
My sense is that Joe Dumars – the general manager in Detroit – knows that moving from Billups to Iverson is not a step in the right direction. The chance of this team winning a title in 2009 has declined. But, given the strength of the Celtics and Lakers, the odds were already against a title in Detroit this season.
So if this trade doesn’t help the Pistons win a title in 2009, why did Dumars pull the trigger? It appears – and several commentators have made this observation – that the key is Iverson’s expiring contract. At the end of this season, Iverson’s nearly $22 million salary comes off the books. With Rasheed Wallace’s contract also expiring, the Pistons only have $33 million in contracts on the books for 2009-10. And for the summer of 2010, the Pistons only have $11 million in contracts (this does not count the extension Richard Hamilton just signed). This means that after this season the Pistons can be very aggressive in the free agent market.
All of this tells us that for the Pistons, “the Answer” is not on the court, but on the books. In other words, one of the “greatest” players to ever play the game has just been acquired because he had an attractive contract. He was not acquired because Iverson is really all that great (and I say that as one of his biggest fans).
This Year in Detroit and Denver
The problem with acquiring an expiring contract, though, is that expiring contracts don’t win games this year. Given that Iverson offers less than Billups, how many games is this going to cost Detroit? If Iverson had played the same minutes as Billups last year – and his productivity stayed the same — he would have produced 7.0 wins. Billups produced 16.0 wins last year, so the difference is about nine victories.
The Pistons, though, are giving more minutes to Amir Johnson. And it’s possible that Rodney Stuckey will improve. So maybe the drop off for Detroit won’t be nine wins. In other words, Detroit’s victory total could still eclipse 50 wins this season. This total is still far short of what we should see from Boston. But it might be good enough to get home court advantage in the first round in the Eastern Conference.
What about the Nuggets? Denver gave Marcus Camby away in the off-season. So it looked like Denver was taking a step-back in 2008-09. And with Iverson coming off the books, it looked like Denver would think about re-building next summer.
Now the Nuggets have added Billups, which is an upgrade. In fact, I think it’s now possible that Denver could reach 50 wins this year. This means that the loss of Camby, coupled with this trade, might leave the Nuggets right where they were at the end of last season. Unfortunately, where they ended didn’t make their fans happy. Making the playoffs and losing in the first round probably gets Karl fired. If there is a silver lining — I think that with Billups — Denver might at least win a couple of playoff games.
Denver’s position with respect to the salary cap, though, has worsened. So it’s flexibility in 2009 is weakened and building a true title contender in Denver may be a bit harder. In sum, I am not really sure what Denver is trying to accomplish.
I should note that Matthew Yglesias – in the midst of a very historic day (yes, there is something a bit more important than this trade going on) – took the time to comment on this trade. And he briefly made the same points that I made (less briefly). Let me close with the comments from Yglesias.
When I first heard that the Pistons had traded for Allen Iverson, I thought Joe Dumars had lost his mind. Give up your best player (and a useful rotation guy) in exchange for a more famous, but worse, player who plays the same position and is of about the same age? Crazy. But of course Dumars isn’t crazy so it became clear that he wasn’t trading for Iverson at all, he’s trading for . . . Allen Iverson’s expiring contract. That shifts this out of “crazy” and into “gutsy.” Pistons fans have been disappointed with the team’s performance over the past couple of seasons, but the fact remains that they’ve been much better than most NBA teams. I might well have thought that leaving well enough alone was a reasonable policy. But instead he’s looking to rebuild. Gutsy. We’ll see.
Meanwhile, Denver’s decision-making makes no sense. The Camby trade was a clear move to cut costs and rebuild. But this is a “win now” move. A team of Billups, JR Smith, Carmelo Anthony, Kenyon Martin, and Marcus Camby with Antonio McDyess, Nene, and Anthony Carter coming off the bench would be a very good team. Probably still not better than the Lakers or the Jazz, but very good. What they’ve got now is just “eh.”
– DJ
The WoW Journal Comments Policy
Our research on the NBA was summarized HERE.
The Technical Notes at wagesofwins.com provides substantially more information on the published research behind Wins Produced and Win Score
Wins Produced, Win Score, and PAWSmin are also discussed in the following posts:
Simple Models of Player Performance
What Wins Produced Says and What It Does Not Say
Introducing PAWSmin — and a Defense of Box Score Statistics
Finally, A Guide to Evaluating Models contains useful hints on how to interpret and evaluate statistical models.
Rashad
November 5, 2008
Any chance you could run the numbers on how many wins the nuggets with Camby and Billups might have produced? High 50s?
Mike G
November 5, 2008
Let’s delve a little deeper into the move than just the “it looks crazy at first, but Dumars really wants the expiring contract” that the media has reported.
What exactly is the value of the expiring contract in wins-produced? Let’s play it out.
What are the chances they can acquire someone who creates more wins than Chauncey would have this season and the next two? Who exactly?
The reflexive “Lebron or DWade in 2010” seems about as likely as Ralph Nader in 2012.
The best case scenario is…Chris Bosh?
Billups-Billups-Billups
vs
AI-nobody-Bosh
Tball
November 5, 2008
The cap space is being created first for this offseason, when Odom and Marion are free agents.
As we saw with Denver and the Clippers, Detroit is not only positioned to sign a free agent, they are also positioned to take on a contract for nothing from a team looking to compete in the LeBron sweeps or duck under the luxury tax.
Italian Stallion
November 5, 2008
I agree with Mike G. When you give up one of your better players to get an expiring contract, you better be sure you can use the extra cap space to get a player that overall is equal or better than the one you just gave up. I don’t see that as a mortal lock and suspect that moves like are not being valued properly. Theory and reality sometimes collide.
Vince Gagliano
November 5, 2008
Like I said, the hurt productivity translates into higher draft stock (socialism in sports)
And the Pistons are looking at a free agent class with LeBron, Wade, and Bosh, amongst others.
Signing one would markedly improve their wins production over Iverson. If they could sign two, if that is possible, then that would push them over the top.
William
November 5, 2008
It appears that NBA Babble and Win Score is inactive. Prof. Berri (or others), do you know of any website that posts daily WP48/WS stats?
Daniel
November 5, 2008
SMALL SAMPLE ALERT!!!
Chris Andersen is the wild card here. After three games, here’s how he looks compared to Camby.
Per 48 minutes stats:
Chris Andersen Marcus Camby
(08-09) (07-08)
13.6 points 12.5 points
1.9 assists 4.5 assists
6.2 blocks 5.0 blocks
1.9 steals 1.5 steals
5.4 off. rebounds 4.0 off. rebounds
16.3 rebounds 18.0 rebounds
7.3 free throws 3.6 free throws
8.1 fg attempts 11 fg attempts
7.3 fouls 3.7 fouls
5.4 turnovers 1.6 turnovers
.556 fg% .450 fg%
.625 ft% .708 ft%
Win Score 15.1 Win Score 20.5
adj. 18.0
Camby is clearly better, but he also makes 12.5 times more money than Chris Andersen, and would not have produced anywhere near 12.5 times as many wins by season’s end. Andersen’s career turnover/48 is 2.3 and his career fouls/48 is 5.6. His unusually high numbers in those areas this season will drop, and his very high blocks will likely drop to closer to his career average of 4.1 blocks/48 as well. With these adjustments, his win score improves to 18.0, which makes him a top-5 center earning the minimum salary….
END SMALL SAMPLE ALERT!!!
And isn’t economics all about getting as much as you can and paying as little as possible?
Daniel
November 5, 2008
The real story…
With Camby, Najera, and Anthony Carter gone (-26 wins), the Nuggets were able to acquire Billups’ production (+9 wins), much more JR Smith and less Chucky Atkins (+5 wins if Smith keeps up last season’s big second half), minutes for Chris Andersen (+9 wins) a productive big man in McDyess (+8 wins), and in doing so they also acquired a reason to give far fewer minutes to Stephen Hunter, Nene (though productive), and Kenyon Martin and they also waived Juwan Howard’s corpse. Also, Carmelo was MUCH better in the second half last year. Over a full season, he will produce much more (+5 wins).
Chris Andersen is the key to this team– and he wasn’t included in any preseason predictions.
Pelton’s Nuggets prediction was 32 wins. Last year the Nuggets won 50 games. In the offseason, they lost 26 wins (in the projection this would be dropped to 26 and bumped up to 32 based on reallocation of minutes) and to this point the Nuggets have picked up 36 wins. There is a net improvement over last season of +10 wins.
Given the fact that the new players will take some time to gel, this team would be a disappointment if it fails to win 50+ games, and has closer to a 60-win ceiling. Next season, they should be the chic pick to win the title. As long as they don’t do something stupid like buy out McDyess.
Joe
November 5, 2008
Anthony Carter gone?
Jeremy
November 5, 2008
Great GREAT work Dave. I was waiting for you to write this as soon as it was written. It should also be noted too, that Chauncey is extremely popular here in Denver. He is the best Basketball player to ever come from Colorado University, or a Colorado High School, and the day the Nuggets let him go was a sad day here in the D.
Bringing Chauncey back not only helps the team, but gives them a (clean) face for the franchise, and a leader to help bring young ‘Melo along. Too bad the Nuggs got rid of Camby, because without a doubt, this team with Camby would be stronger both offensively, and defensively than they have been in the “Melo era”
As a Celtics and adopted Nuggets fan, I absolutely love this move for numerous reasons. I also get the sense that although AI was fun to watch, he was never beloved to the fans like he was in Philly. The fans will fall back in love with Chauncey, which is to say that they have ever fallen out of love with him in the first place.
Erich
November 5, 2008
Most everything I run suggests the Pistons are 10 wins worse or more. They seem to have traded Billups for a potential pair of lottery tickets and one ticket to the LeBron Prize Game.
Additionally, LeBron’s pending potential free agency will allow the fan base to forgive Piston’s management for pocketing the cap savings for ’09-10 and accepting a lost season.
Dumars has little at risk. If this fails, he’s sure to get another GM job with ease. If he succeeds, its rings, raises, and enshrinement.
Rashad, the Wins Produced projections had the Nuggets in the mid 30’s with Iverson, in the 40’s with Billups, and no lower than 50 with Camby and Billups.
Mike G, as implied above, I generally believe in the average case the Pistons would win more with Billups, but the average case would likely not include the rings or the salary savings. Would you rather be a Marlins fan (feast or famine) or a Blue Jays fan (good, but never quite good enough to contend)? Dumars is aiming for the sky and I can’t say I’d blame him.
dberri
November 5, 2008
Thanks Erich. Great analysis (as always).
I would add something that I should have noted in the post. Billups, for an NBA player, is old. I think Dumars is also motivated by what we saw with respect to Ben Wallace. As players age, their production declines. It is best that decline happens for some other team.
Mountain
November 6, 2008
As players age, their production declines but maybe quicker for an undersized big without much offense and defensive ability to lose especially from help defense requiring speed than an large PG with a great shot, very good slow penetration skill and strong passing skill which doesn’t age much.
Nate
November 6, 2008
I originally hated this trade, but I’ve also come around to it. As the NBA is currently constituted, it’s very unlikely that any team besides the Lakers or Celtics will be able to win a title this year, and next year isn’t looking too good either (barring major injuries to those teams, of course). By the 2010-2011 season, Billups will probably be well into his decline phase, and thus not worth his inflated salary.
Jason J
November 6, 2008
There is a little something to be said for chemistry and gameplay – the actuality behind the boxscores behind the metrics behind the projections, and there is a little bit of hope in the gameplay.
Detroit starts 3 shooters, a playmaking small forward, a beastly offensive rebounding power forward, 3 shotblockers, and one of the best defensive wings of the last decade. Iverson adds an element of unpredictability and explosiveness at the offensive end, steals and transition baskets, and kick out passes for open jumpers.
In Detroit, his ill-advised shots in the paint free up space to offensive rebound. The impact of his over-handling is minimized by his teammates’ abilities to play without the ball. His defensive liabilities are somewhat ameliorated by the terrific defenders on his side.
In theory it actually reminds me of a more talented 2001 Sixers squad. You know, if he can in fact still be THAT Allen Iverson.
I’m sure you’re all correct and the WP numbers will hold up, because they usually do, but I also think a lot of Detroit fans are a lot more crestfallen about this season than they probably need to be. And who knows – with the kind of money they’ll have available over the next two years they can target some huge talent.
Jacob Rosen
November 8, 2008
Great post Dave, I was waiting for you to comment on this. If Detroit falls back a few games in the wins column, how do you think that will affect Cleveland, Orlando and Philadelphia in the race for #2 under Boston in the Eastern Conference?
One thing I would like to see here is more talk about how changes in one team’s efficiency affects other teams within that conference. For example, does this trade for the Pistons make the Cavaliers more likely to win 50+ games this season? That would appear to be so, just slightly, as the Cavaliers certainly move up in the Eastern Conference ever so slightly if the Pistons fall down. Do you think that Orlando, Philadelphia and Cleveland have any chance of catching up to Detroit this year, and what are their projections?
John W. Davis
November 10, 2008
The Pistons are going for Bosh not Lebron.
Bosh is better suited anyway.
I have always preached that we needed to trade Chauncey for a PF or Center.
Mike Martinez
December 1, 2008
Allen Iverson is a self-centered, narcissistic, thug who will never win an NBA championship…and rightfully so. No offense to Pistons fans…
EnjoyMedia
March 17, 2009
NIce post.