There is often an overall imbalance between point differential and predicted wins because NBA teams do not always win and lose by the exact same margin. For example, the Reggie Miller-era Pacers might have often had a lower differential than their win total. This wasn’t necessarily because they faced easier competition, but rather because with Miller, one of the best clutch performers of his era, the Pacers would often eke out a number of extremely close wins, while their losses might be by wider margins.

If we count the game at the Clippers as a home game for the Lakers (since they play in Staples anyway) then LA has won its five home games by an average of almost 19 points per contest.

However, in their three road games, all against playoff competition, their margin dropped to only 7 points per contest. In other words, much of their large differential is due to a familiarity with their home court. But away from Staples, they look considerably more mortal.

We’ll probably see similar numbers for the rest of November, since the team has only the road game at Phoenix on their schedule. However, it should dip heading into the new year.

All in all, the team will probably have the best record in the NBA and home court advantage in the playoffs, but their performance on the road will be key.

But their ultimate success will come from NOT GET DIMINISHING RETURNS on all that talent on the court at the same time. If they don’t, all their individual stats will slowly go down without getting a correspnding improved increase in efficiency from each that leads to better team results. I think that’s sometimes tougher to accomplish than it looks because these are highly motivated athletes with big egos.

Second, winning games in the season is mostly a test of talent.

Winning games in the playoffs is a test of both talent and heart. I don’t see these Lakers on the leader board of any heart stats YET!.

The biggest problem with forecasting a champion (aside from injuries) is that “winning a championship” is not binary – a team isn’t “championship caliber” or “not championship caliber”. So although the Lakers are likely the plurality favorite to win the title, their chances surely aren’t greater than that of the field… Put another way, at this point in the season, there is no team that has a 0% chance of “winning it all.”

It should be noted that with the exception of Vujacic, every player on the list has clocked an average of 20 minutes per contest.

Also, there are signs that the triangle offense has led to a resurrection of sorts in Pau Gasol’s career. At time of writing, he has an estimated .201 WP48 for his entire career, assuming he has played all of those minutes at power forward.

However, as the Lakers’ center, he posted an estimated .311 WP48, as much as anyone, propelling LA to the Finals.

Through his first seven games, he has registered a .306 WP48 at power forward using the model, compared to the actual value of .312. In other words, it’s almost as if the Lakers traded for Pau’s productivity PLUS that of an average, run-of-the-mill, NBA player.

Also, his surge has helped balance out some of the drop witnessed in Andrew Bynum.