On Tuesday – in the midst of my daily scan of TrueHoop – I came across the following item in the daily bullets:
Per minute, Russell Westbrook and Derrick Rose have very similar numbers.
Having spent a bit of time looking at each player’s numbers this year, I found this statement to be a bit surprising. So I followed the link, which took me to The Thunderworld. And there I found the following column.
The potential impact of Russell Westbrook
Within this column were these sentences.
As I was writing this and looking at other players, I think I found my comparison. Russell Westbrook reminds me most of Derrick Rose – as crazy as that is. Rose is clearly on track to superstardom, but Westbrook really isn’t getting the pub. And he’s having a darn fine rookie campaign. The biggest tick on Westbrook is field goal percentage. He shoots just 35 percent from the field and 26 percent from three whereas Rose hits almost 49 percent from the field and almost 37 percent from three. But like I said, let that jumper come and Westbrook is an All-Star waiting to happen. Mark it.
Let me walk through my reaction to this analysis.
- Let me say first… I understand fans in Oklahoma are excited. Your team has only existed for a few weeks, and I certainly don’t want to rain on anyone’s parade.
- That being said, although I may not want it to rain, I think the Westbrook picture is a bit cloudy. In other words, I have a hard time concluding that Westbrook is having a “darn fine rookie campaign.” And the reason behind my reluctance is found in the above cited column. Westbrook is currently shooting 35% from the field. According to Basketball-Reference.com (see link on the right), of the NBA players who have already attempted 200 field goals, only Ron Artest has a lower level of shooting efficiency from the field.
- The column states that if Westbrook didn’t shoot so poorly, he would be an All-Star. Although that might be true, it led me to think that the same logic could apply to a few other athletes. For example, Dontrelle Willis – who walked 35 batters in 24 innings this year – could have been a great pitcher in 2008 if he knew how to throw strikes. Or Daunte Culpepper – who has thrown six interceptions in his first 91 pass attempts as a Lion – could be a great quarterback if he only stopped throwing passes to the other team. In other words, all athletes who play badly would be better if they only played better.
- In looking at Westbrook we need to keep two questions separate. First, there is the issue of how well Westbrook has played so far. And on that count, the conclusion has to be “not so good”. When we look at Wins Produced, we see that Westbrook is currently on pace to produce just 1.4 wins; while posting a 0.017 WP48 [Wins Produced per 48 minutes]. In contrast, Rose is on pace to produce 10.2 wins with a 0.157 WP48. The average mark is 0.100, so at this point Rose could be considered “good” while Westbrook is… okay, he’s not having a “darn fine rookie season.” (by the way – just to connect back to my last post — Greg Oden currently has a 0.253 WP48, so he is having a “darn fine rookie season”).
- Beyond the issue of how good Westbrook has been is the question of how good Westbrook will be in the future. It’s certainly true that if Westbrook starts to hit his shots that his value will rise. And that might happen in the future. Then again, it’s also possible it won’t happen. Although we don’t know if (or when) Westbrook will become a “good” player, we should all be able to agree that a player shooting 35% from the field is not having a particularly good season so far.
Although Westbrook has clearly struggled, three other rookie point guards are having a “darn fine season.” And as Table One indicates, this trio includes Rose, Mario Chalmers, and George Hill.
Table One: The Rookie Point Guards after December 1, 2008
It’s important to remember that Table One only tells us how well these players have played after the first month of their NBA careers. Obviously our sample is quite small and it’s certainly possible that the performance of these players will change over time. But how these players will change is not the point of this story. The point being made is that we need to be able to separate how a player is today and how he might be in the future.
And just to repeat… Today, Westbrook is clearly struggling as an NBA player. And that’s not what we would say about Derrick Rose (although I still think Oden is doing a bit more).
- DJ
The WoW Journal Comments Policy
Our research on the NBA was summarized HERE.
The Technical Notes at wagesofwins.com provides substantially more information on the published research behind Wins Produced and Win Score
Wins Produced, Win Score, and PAWSmin are also discussed in the following posts:
Simple Models of Player Performance
What Wins Produced Says and What It Does Not Say
Introducing PAWSmin — and a Defense of Box Score Statistics
Finally, A Guide to Evaluating Models contains useful hints on how to interpret and evaluate statistical models.
35 responses so far ↓
Zach Hutchins // December 3, 2008 at 5:45 am
David, I have a question, idea for a potential post:
Who doesn’t get nearly enough playing time, given their WP48 numbers? (Obviously, this will likely be someone who’s good in many facets of the game but doesn’t score very many points and is kept out of games because of coaching decisions, not foul trouble.) You talk a lot about players that are underappreciated/underpaid; how about players that are underutilized? Can you take a look at minutes per-game and tell us which coaches are missing the point? Thanks for your great work–always entertaining and informative!
dberri // December 3, 2008 at 8:06 am
Zach,
Thanks for comments and suggestion.
Last year I did a similar post, looking at future stars. These are players who were very productive in limited minutes. I meant to write something like this for 2007-08, but never got around to it. Maybe this is something I will do as this season progresses.
Robert // December 3, 2008 at 10:48 am
Although Westbrook’s play could hardly be construed as good (in any light, really) part of the blame has to be the NBDL team with whom he’s currently associated. It’s hard to fluff up your apg or find any open looks yourself when you have Jeff Green (.469 eFG%), Kevin Durant (.479 eFG%), Earl Watson (34.7 eFG%), and Nick Collison (.450 eFG%) as the other guys getting most of Oklahoma’s minutes.
It’s worth noting this OKC team is in contention for being the worst team ever; probably not getting enough pub, but it truly is a team full of replacement level players. (And I suppose “young talent that someday could be decent”)
Anyway, Russell has been brutal, but I do think some of the blame lies in his teammates.
Tom Mandel // December 3, 2008 at 12:15 pm
Yet, despite the fact that what you write is correct, Dave, the original writer is correct too that the only thing between Westbrook and productivity is his FG%. His other numbers are mostly quite good, especially his net possessions.
That’s not to say that he’ll ever *improve* his fg% significantly, but I think you’d rather see his net productivity held back by one stat than to see mediocrity or worse right down the line, no?
Vince Gagliano // December 3, 2008 at 12:27 pm
In the meantime, Thunder fans can start dreaming of winning the sweepstakes for hometown hero Blake Griffin, who is posting a 14.9 PAWS/40 through six games in college.
Tom Mandel // December 3, 2008 at 3:56 pm
Dave — I’ve been meaning to ask you for this for months:
In your point guard table, linked to in this post, you provide performance/win score data for the “average point guard.” In other such tables, you’ve provided the same kind of averages for other positions.
It would be *great* to have a *single table* containing averages for all 5 positions, and for it to be one of the links on your header.
Any chance you’d be willing to provide this? If it’s helpful, I can even compile it for you.
Rob O // December 3, 2008 at 4:10 pm
Westbrook has played on Rose’s WP48 level the past five games, while shooting 43% from the field. This is a very small sample but writers need things to write about, and to a larger extent Thunder fans need something to be excited about. Overreaction on his part but at the time of his writing Westbrook had been playing well. Speaking of things to be excited about, as a Wizards fan, I’d love a story on Blake Griffin. I’m sure Oklahoma City fans would too. Even though the draft is far away. Keep up the good work!
Vince Gagliano // December 3, 2008 at 4:36 pm
At the rate he’s going, Griffin looks to become the third straight Big 12 player selected in the top-2 of the draft. It’s too early to tell, but he’s probably better (as in, more productive) than even Beasley and Durant ever were in college.
Non-statistically, he is very explosive for an athlete of his size, and has established himself as the best rebounder, on either end, in college ball.
To gain some perspective, his current production bests the PAWS scores of Beasley, Durant, Kevin Love, Mareesse Speights in either season, Greg Oden, and Tim Duncan in his senior season. Again, he needs a few more games against top competition for a more accurate analysis, but so far, he looks like a can’t miss prospect in the draft.
He could likely provide at least 25-30 minutes a night for a pro team.
Rob O // December 3, 2008 at 6:26 pm
I hope so. I don’t like this Wizards winning thing. Eddie Jordan was heading us right where we needed to go to hope for a championship…the top of the lottery. The Wizards as currently constructed with all their contracts and stuff have no championship aspirations even if healthy. I don’t think we have a chance at Griffin, but he’d fit perfectly, and dreaming comes with the fan territory.
Brian Gampel // December 3, 2008 at 6:37 pm
Dr. Berri, can you please comment on how big of a victory this season has been for WoW and the concept of “you are who you are in basketball?” You already spoke of the Billups/Iverson trade. But, what about the Jermaine O’neal for TJ Ford trade? Toronto traded a good player for a bad player. Now, theyre coach is fired because they have underachieved. Because of the GM’s horrible assessment, the expectations were clearly way too high. And, wouldnt you know it, the Pacers are “overachieving.” Theyre playing great ball even without dunleavy.
Vince Gagliano // December 3, 2008 at 7:40 pm
Rob,
Historically, having the most lottery balls is not a guarantee of success in winning the lottery. Dave has covered the incentive for NBA teams to lose in prior columns. Besides, the jury is still out as to when Arenas and Haywood will return.
And, lest I remind you, the last time Washington grabbed a can’t miss big man with a top draft pick, things didn’t pan out so well.
If the team is healthy next season, Griffin would provide the Wiz with a quality player that would allow Antawn Jamison to spend more time at small forward, where it suits his style better. If the team were to go small, he could provide some quality minutes at center with Jamison at 4, Caron Butler at 3, Deshawn at 2, and Arenas at 1.
This team needs Griffin a lot more than Ricky Rubio. However, Rubio, who is more of a pass-first point guard, might spell Arenas at 1, or even let Arenas, a shoot-first player, move to the 2.
However, the top storyline will be the Thunder trying to win the Griffin sweepstakes as the season goes on. Griffin grew up in Oklahoma City and starred at Oklahoma Christian School as a prep star. The region is filled with a cross between Oklahoma and Oklahoma State fans, and Griffin provides a combination of hyped talent and hometown heritage that would draw ticket sales for the team.
Right now, his biggest weakness is his free throw shooting, hitting 59% at the stripe for his OU career. But even the fact that he’s getting to the line more is attesting to the attention that defenses bestow on him.
dberri // December 3, 2008 at 7:42 pm
Tom,
I think I posted all this someplace. But I will try and make a page for this.
Brian,
My next post is on Toronto. So I will comment on this decision. The Pacers have looked pretty good also, despite the loss of Dunleavy. And then there are the Rockets, who are not quite this year’s Boston Celtics.
reservoirgod // December 4, 2008 at 4:42 am
The positiom averages can be found at wagesofwins.com/posavg
dberri // December 4, 2008 at 7:07 am
Yes, this where I put these. Perhaps I should update the table.
http://www.wagesofwins.com/PosAvg.html
mrparker // December 4, 2008 at 9:25 am
I’m trying not to troll but I can’t help it. Someone, and by someone I mean me, MrParker, has posted numerous times that Rose should have been the top pick. While most touted the ability of Beasley. So far Rose is off to a great start. Beasley, not really. Kevin Love is picking up the pace and becoming very productive despite a poor shooting percentage. Meanwhile fan favorite Kevin Durant is not producing anything, I guess we’ll just wait for him to magically become a good shot taker.
Other Parker favorites like Aaron Gray and Joakim Noah are also quietly producing while Chicago refuses to give them any minutes whatsoever. Meanwhile, players who waste limited team resources, like shots, while giving nothing back such as Rodney Stuckey get major minutes and pub.
Carl Landry! Nothing else needs to be said about his play. Why does he get no PT? WHY?
I nominate myself to run my own team, the woeful wizards. Being an NBA gm is easy.
Step 1. Takeover the season after the best player is hurt the whole season, thus ensuring a top 3 pick.
Step 2. Draft Blake Griffin
Step 3. Get rid of all the other picks, except McGee of the past two years.
step 4. Hope Blake Griffin is hurt the entire next season and obtain a top pick once again.
step 5. Pick someone Blake Griffin like.
step 6. Hire someone to coach is not a screw up that will not play Griffin major minutes.
step 7. Raise championship banner in 10′
dustin // December 4, 2008 at 9:40 am
You don’t even need to have him be hurt, just play some horrible defensive scheme. I doubt fans will notice horrible defense.
Royce // December 4, 2008 at 9:42 am
First off, thanks for reading.
You’re right – Russell Westbrook’s shooting percentage is embarrassing and shouldn’t be overlooked.
One thing I want to say to defend myself a little: I didn’t say all Russell needed was a jumper and he’d be an All-Star now. I said if he develops a nice mid-range game, he is an “All-Star waiting to happen.” There’s no denying it – per 48, Westbrook and Rose are very similar.
Westbrook is averaging close to 13 a game, almost three steals and is approaching five assists. I realize shooting percentage is not just something to pass over, but regardless, I think that’s a pretty good rookie season for a guy that was at his senior prom three years ago.
mrparker // December 4, 2008 at 9:49 am
royce,
I am still waiting for Felton to “develop” his shooting percentage. I think I give up. Westbrook is an intriguing prospect. He has all the tools to help his team win but continues to exacerbate his biggest weakness by shooting too much. Go get some o-rebounds and let the less athletic players who cant get rebounds take the bad shots. I don’t think this will ever happen, but Thad Young figured out how to do it for a year so anything is possible.
kevin // December 4, 2008 at 11:04 am
dberri,
It seems to me that Westbrook would be having a “damn fine rookie season” if he’d just stop shooting so much. He’s undoing the good he’s doing in the other aspects by his insistance on bricklaying too many of his team’s posessions.
kevin // December 4, 2008 at 11:10 am
And, lest we not forget, OC is 2-17. It’s hard to make the claim someone who is a central figure on such a poor team is playing like a future superstar.
kevin // December 4, 2008 at 11:42 am
“Meanwhile fan favorite Kevin Durant is not producing anything, I guess we’ll just wait for him to magically become a good shot taker.”
Umm, are you referring to the same Kevin Durant who is sporting a .553 TS%?
Rob O // December 4, 2008 at 12:21 pm
Yeah Kevin Durant’s shooting isn’t necessarily the problem. He just isn’t doing anything else. He has a really low rebounding rate and gives nothing in assists or defensive stats really. I suspect a lot of this has to do with his lack of strength and playing out of position. It does seem like he is improving, however.
As long as we keep looking into small samples in this young NBA season I think we should look into Kevin Durants play under new coach Scott Brooks. Brooks moved Durant to his natural position of SF on November 25th and since then Durant has posted about a .200 WP48. Small sample…yes, but worth looking at. If this trend continues throughout the season it would make for a good post.
Rob O // December 4, 2008 at 12:27 pm
Actually the Thunder as a team have played much better under Brooks than Carlesimo. A story worth keeping an eye on.
dberri // December 4, 2008 at 6:49 pm
Royce,
To the extent I had a point to make… I think I was trying to call attention to what it means for a player to miss so many shots. Although I noted that you were aware of this issue, there is a real concern that Westbrook gets the wrong message. People telling him that he is doing “good”, when he shoots so poorly, runs the risk that he will never focus on fixing this problem. After all, if he is already “good”, what is there to fix?
If we consider the careers of Jerry Stackhouse and Allen Iverson, you can see my concern. These players are not very good at shooting. And this has been a persistent problem. Although I am sure people have mentioned this issue to these players, these players have also been told all their career that they are “good”. Consequently, the need to fix the shooting problem probably never seemed that urgent. And as we see, the shooting problem for these players was never fixed.
Vince Gagliano // December 4, 2008 at 7:49 pm
It gets worse.
Adjusted, Westbrook shoots 36% from the field. For Reggie Miller, Steve Nash, or Chauncey Billups, 36% would be a below-average season from the perimeter, let alone from the field.
Even players who traditionally shoot well from the field can hurt their team if they do little else. For his career, J.J. Redick shot an adjusted 55.3% in his four-year career at Duke, including an unfathomable 57.8% in his senior season at Duke. To gain some perspective, 50% is the break even mark at which a player needs to shoot in order for his productivity to “break even”, so to speak.
The key was that Redick shot exceptionally well from 3-point land; even though he only shot 43% from the field, he was over 40% from behind the arc. However, he didn’t really contribute much else. On average, he stole a little over 1 ball per game, but grabbed just 2.7 boards and dished out 2.2 assists PER GAME.
So Redick’s basketball wizardry was constructed on the fabric of getting his shot off at a very high rate. When he confronted NBA defenders who could defend that shot better than most college defenders, much of his productivity went with it.
Now, Redick is doing worse than even Westbrook, shooting just 32% from the field (Although his 40% AFG percentage is higher.) Chances are, he’s not going to be in line for a contract extension, and even if he gets one, it won’t be big.
On the other hand, Chris Paul has steadily improved his mid-range jump shot and his perimeter shot throughout his career, and is now lighting up defenses to the tune of 54% this season. Even though his scoring average is down to 20.6 from 21.1 right now, Paul is averaging 2.4 fewer shots taken per game. His improved efficiency allows him to do more with less.
Believe it or not, Byron Scott has actually asked him to shoot more at least once this season.
I rest my case.
Vince Gagliano // December 4, 2008 at 8:19 pm
Useless stat of the day: Over his last six basketball seasons, and in this season, Redick has 0 career double-doubles.
mrparker // December 5, 2008 at 3:54 am
Didn’t realize Durant had started the season shooting so well. I made the major mistake of seeing a 102 offensive rating and assuming his shooting sucked. I’m skeptical of that number being combined with a 102 offensive rating. If you can’t be an above average offensive player while shooting above average there is a problem.
John W. Davis // December 5, 2008 at 1:12 pm
If I was 7′0 tall I would be in the NBA.
John W. Davis // December 5, 2008 at 1:13 pm
Scratch that I’m a decent ball player. 6′11. lol
Top Posts « WordPress.com // December 5, 2008 at 5:16 pm
[...] Russell Westbrook is Similar to Derrick Rose? On Tuesday – in the midst of my daily scan of TrueHoop – I came across the following item in the daily bullets: Per [...] [...]
#1 Dberri fan // December 5, 2008 at 6:58 pm
LOL that other article is stupid. A jump shot is the most important part of the game.
the best players shoot 50% FG and 90% FT. they win championships.
playmaking, defense, post-play, intangibles such as hustling–these are all overrated.
if you really know the game, then you know that shooting a jump-shot is synonymous to playing basketball well.
#1 Dberri fan // December 5, 2008 at 7:08 pm
i agree with Dberri that shooting well is the exact same thing as playing 5-on-5 well. ask Peja, the greatest player that ever lived.
also that if you get a lot of interceptions in football, then you suck at football. even if you hypothetically average 15.3 touchdowns per game, if you have 3 interceptions per game, you suck at football.
sage // December 5, 2008 at 9:01 pm
what is this offensive rating you speak of?
jelsBoogs // December 6, 2008 at 8:08 am
Hey I have been looking for this kind of post for long time. You know what, I met the same thing before as you. It’s really great for you to share the experience. Thanks!
Nesta // December 9, 2008 at 4:43 am
Wow…how are u comparing this rookie to daunte culpepper and willis…newsflash he is a rookie…he’s only gonna get better. What a dumb comparison. He is having a darn fine season. His stats speak for themselves. Hitting jump shots isn’t the only part of the game. How many rookie pg’s in the latest draft classes have averaged 13ppg 4 asst 4 reb and 2 stls???? Not too many…u need to open your eyes buddy, this kid is having a darn good season and it’s only going to get better