Judging by the reaction to my last post, if you tell fans of a team that there is little hope more than three months before the season even starts, those fans are going to become unhappy. Unfortunately, the story I told about the Raptors is not unique. And to illustrate this point I thought I would talk briefly about the team that I have followed all my life, the Detroit Pistons.
The Pistons Today
John Kuester has become the 6th head coach hired by Joe Dumars. As Kuester makes his move to the Motor City he faces a choice: Should he rent or buy?
For a number of reasons, renting seems like the way to go. First of all, the housing market in Detroit is lousy. But beyond that issue is the past history of Dumars. Dumars has fired successful coaches. He has been even quicker to fire unsuccessful coaches. This suggests that Kuester is not going to last in Detroit.
Beyond what Dumars had done to coaches in the past, though, is the roster Dumars has assembled. Here is the team’s current first and second units, with 2008-09 Wins Produced and WP48 [Wins Produced per 48 minutes] reported for each veteran player.
First Team:
PG: Rodney Stuckey [4.0 Wins Produced, 0.077 WP48]
SG: Richard Hamilton [1.9 Wins Produced, 0.040 WP48]
SF: Tayshaun Prince [7.3 Wins Produced, 0.114 WP48]
PF: Charlie Villanueva [3.6 Wins Produced, 0.082 WP48]
C: Kwame Brown [2.4 Wins Produced, 0.117 WP48]
Second Team:
PG: Will Bynum [1.2 Wins Produced, 0.071 WP48]
SG: Ben Gordon [4.9 Wins Produced, 0.078 WP48]
SF: Austin Daye [Rookie]
PF: Jason Maxiell [2.9 Wins Produced, 0.098 WP48]
C: ????
When we look over this roster we see that the player with the highest WP48 from last year was Kwame Brown. And he was only slightly above average (average WP48 is 0.100). Overall, six of the eight veterans on this team were actually below average last year.
Coveting Big Baby?
And now we see the following from Marc Stein (of ESPN.com).
The early sense I get is that the Mavericks have little interest in using their midlevel exception — which is back in their possession after Orlando confirmed its intention to match a five-year, $34 million offer to Gortat — to play the restricted free-agent game again with Boston’s Glen Davis.
Detroit, by contrast, really covets Big Baby, whose modest $711,517 salary last season didn’t stop him from stepping in admirably for the injured Kevin Garnett in the playoffs. The Pistons’ problem is that their offer can start in only the $3 million range compared with $5.9 million in Dallas’ case, raising the obvious fear that the rival Celtics could tie up the Pistons’ money for seven days and then match.
Last year Glen Davis produced -2.0 wins and posted a -0.058 WP48. So Davis – if he came to Detroit – could actually be the least productive player on a team of (mostly) below average performers.
Stein argues, though, that although the Pistons “really covet” Davis, they are not likely to get him. So Dumars might be forced to look elsewhere. One possibility – suggested by A. Sherrod Blakely of MLive.com – is that Dumars will bring back Ben Wallace. Big Ben produced 5.4 wins last season with a 0.198 WP48. But he will also be 35 years of age before the season starts and unlikely to play more than 20 minutes a night. Consequently, Wallace probably can’t help much.
If we put the whole picture together, it becomes clear that whether the team has Davis or Wallace, this is simply not a very good team (and that’s also true if they sign Drew Gooden, although a trade for Carlos Boozer would really help). At least, that’s the picture painted by Wins Produced.
Channeling Isiah
If we focus on scoring, though, another story is told. Stuckey, Hamilton, Villanueva, Bynum, and Gordon are all above average scorers. Such a collection of scorers suggests that Dumars might now be channeling his inner-Isiah. Back in 2004 the Pistons won an NBA title with a leading scorer (Richard Hamilton) only averaging 17.6 points per game. Meanwhile, Isiah was building a team of scorers in New York that kept missing the playoffs.
When we look at the team Dumars is currently assembling, one suspects that Isiah called his former back-court mate and said: “you know, a team of scorers really should win in the NBA. In New York we didn’t have the right chemistry. But I know you can create the right atmosphere in Detroit for this idea to work. Really.”
Unfortunately for fans of the Pistons (and I am one of these), the Isiah model really doesn’t work. So the team Dumars has assembled is probably going struggle next year. The veterans currently on the roster only produced 28.2 wins last season. So even if Austin Daye is amazing and the team signs Wallace (and he is still productive), this team is still going to struggle to reach 40 wins (again, trading for Boozer might change this forecast some).
That means the Pistons probably miss the playoffs. And when that happens, Kuester will probably go back to being an assistant for another head coach in another city.
So it looks like Kuester needs to rent. And given this roster, Dumars might start hoping the housing market in Detroit starts to improve; because if the Pistons don’t get back to the playoffs soon, Dumars might also follow Kuester out of town.
- DJ
The WoW Journal Comments Policy
Our research on the NBA was summarized HERE.
The Technical Notes at wagesofwins.com provides substantially more information on the published research behind Wins Produced and Win Score
Wins Produced, Win Score, and PAWSmin are also discussed in the following posts:
Simple Models of Player Performance
What Wins Produced Says and What It Does Not Say
Introducing PAWSmin — and a Defense of Box Score Statistics
Finally, A Guide to Evaluating Models contains useful hints on how to interpret and evaluate statistical models.
20 responses so far ↓
Austin // July 14, 2009 at 10:06 pm
It’s really too bad for Detroit. A huge, huge waste of cap space on Gordon and Villanueva.
I have a request. A friend of mine and I, both huge basketball fans, often use the “All Players Mid 08-09″ Table (http://www.wagesofwins.com/AllPlayerMid0809.html) as reference for wp48 scores. Does a similar table exist for season’s end, and if not, could you provide one?
In any case, thank you as always for your thorough, fact-based analysis.
Christopher // July 14, 2009 at 10:29 pm
Let me add to that request that some way to get at WS and WP values by player, season, etc. would be very useful. I thought there was a site that did this but can no longer find it? (Altho it was based on the approximation and not the real thing.)
DSMok1 // July 15, 2009 at 5:53 am
I also would like to see a complete table for wins produced–in fact, I would like to see this historically as well (like Sean Smith’s Historical WAR database for baseball). At the very least, though, I would like to see the data for last year.
Rob O'Malley // July 15, 2009 at 6:07 am
http://www.wagesofwins.com/Top152009.html
This might help that request a little.
DSMok1 // July 15, 2009 at 6:55 am
Yes, I know what is available… however, a truly complete list would be nice.
Today's Piston Pieces 7/15/09 - Detroit Pistons Fan Community - PistonsForum.com // July 15, 2009 at 7:15 am
[...] [...]
Italian Stallion // July 15, 2009 at 7:46 am
I find it remarkable that some GMs/Coaches don’t realize that you have to build a team with a more balanced and diverse set of offensive and defensive skills in order to maximize the productivity of each.
It’s one thing to argue the merits of an individual “scorer” or “shooter”.
It’s another to think you can put 5 of them on the court without getting 5 guys that are underperforming expectations and giving you little everywhere else.
Tball // July 15, 2009 at 8:24 am
I find it more remarkable that a GM that has successfully built a balanced team, with the opportunities that were available this offseason, would build this. Ariza could have been had, Andre Miller is available. One suspects Lee. Childress, and Gortat were available in spite of the restrictions, at the right price. Three quality, young players (Ariza, Lee, Gortat) could have been had with the money used to sign Gordon and V. Odom is available at less than Gordon cost. Quality players seeking less than Gordon were available at every position.
I’m not a Pistons fan, but I have found all of Dumars’ actions the last 12 months (Billups trade, extension of Hamilton, silence at the trade deadline with McDyess, Iverson, and Wallace walking in the offseason, waiting until the middle of the offseason to release Curry, use of the cap space) absolutely confounding.
Much like observing Chris Wallace ‘run’ Memphis or Steve Kerr tear down the Suns, the irrational decision-making is irritating for any fan of the sport.
DR // July 15, 2009 at 8:29 am
I think buying would be a good idea, with the kind of money coaches make, he can easily afford to wait half a decade or more for the house value to go up noticeably.
brgulker // July 15, 2009 at 10:35 am
@ Tball:
I find it more remarkable that a GM that has successfully built a balanced team, with the opportunities that were available this offseason, would build this.
It’s perplexing to me, too. After master-minding the 03-04 Champions, the 04-05 finalists who were incredibly close to a re-peat, and then two very successful years after that even — it’s as if Joe decided, “Well, enough of that. It’s time to do the exact opposite.”
We had so much cap space, and we didn’t even make a run at some of the most productive players — Gortat, Lee, Milsap, Ariza. We didn’t even try to get them. And further, we appear to not be interested in Boozer, even though he’d help.
And what’s even more perplexing is that other teams weren’t exactly beating down the doors to sign Gordon and CV. Heck, even Chicago didn’t make an offer to Gordon!
About the only solace I have right now is that Rip and Tay have good reputations around the league and might be tradeable for a very productive big man … emphasis on might be.
Plus, I think there is a chance that CV can improve under the right coaching. He can learn better shot selection (thereby improving his shooting percentage), and defense and rebounding are largely about positioning and effort — two things that can be taught and learned.
I also think there is some room to grow for Stuckey and Bynum, although I don’t know how much, and Tay was battling injuries and being played out of position by his coach all season last year. So, we could see a boost to Tay’s numbers as well.
But admittedly, that’s the best case scenario, and that’s probably of me wishing and hoping for the best than being realistic.
But that’s what fans do, right?
The Franchise // July 15, 2009 at 11:52 am
brgulker isn’t the first one to say something along the lines of “defense and rebounding are largely about positioning and effort — two things that can be taught and learned.”
Why don’t players learn these skills, then? I see shot selection improve for some players (i.e. Tony Parker), and turnovers decline for some, but honestly, I can’t recall players often improving defense or rebounding. It seems that mostly, whatever a player is two or three years into the league is basically what they are. (Barring injury, of course.) Is this perception reality?
dberri // July 15, 2009 at 11:58 am
The Franchise,
That’s what I see in the data. Villanueva might improve. But that shouldn’t be expected.
larryp // July 15, 2009 at 12:20 pm
Dave,
Everyone talks about Big Baby being so unproductive, however as Celtics fans know Big Baby improved drastically as the year on. Can you run your analysis of the last few months of the year and see if your conclusion changes. I would guess he might not be great but he certainly would be better than what your numbers currently suggest.
brgulker // July 15, 2009 at 12:22 pm
Why don’t players learn these skills, then? I see shot selection improve for some players (i.e. Tony Parker), and turnovers decline for some, but honestly, I can’t recall players often improving defense or rebounding. It seems that mostly, whatever a player is two or three years into the league is basically what they are. (Barring injury, of course.) Is this perception reality?
I’m not trying to argue that it’s likely. In fact, I said just the opposite … this could just be me being a fan who’s doing some wishful thinking.
And yeah, usually, once you’re in the league for 2-3 years, you are what you are.
I’m just saying it’s possible. And I’m hoping that possibility comes to fruition.
Palamida // July 15, 2009 at 4:14 pm
Larry P, just for you :p
Big baby started in 16 games this regular season two of these were in Early Feb, and the rest later in the season. his split as a starting PF:
Mins – 33.1 \ Fg % -48.2 \ Ft% -66 \ Reb – 5.6 \ Blk – 0.44 \ Stl – 0.75\ Ast – 1.7 \ To – 1.9 \ Pts 12.6
So what have we here? a big producer? hardly.
His Fg% is slightly below avg. for his position so is his Ft%. His Reb are abysmal (8.4 rebs would be the average for his PT). Blocks about half as many shots as the Avg. PF, below avg in regards to Steals as well and to boot he even posted a negative Ast\To ratio. And those are basically the numbers you were talking about. He was even below average at committing personal fouls. So there you have it. I’ll go on a limb here by saying below average production in EVERY category makes for a below average win producer, perhaps someone can verify that
In such a productive position (PF) this just creates a really big hole.
Boston will be Considerably better off, especially considering the money he’s asking for.
To be fair i’ll note that most of the Big Baby hype is based on Boston’s playoff run and in that stretch he did in fact play better : Shot the ball slightly better from the field and improved to 71% from the Ft% which is about avg. he also had 25 Ast to 20 To. In addition he got a few more Steals per min, but continued to be a poor rebounder, and shot blocker.
Even if that’s the Big Baby of the future (which considering his age is a plausible assessment), committing the a large part or perhaps even all of the MLE long term to him is insanity.
Joe // July 15, 2009 at 7:16 pm
larryp.
Search the archives. The Big Baby story is “a story” on this forum. There have been a couple of posts on him and there will be a few more when he continues to be unproductive and overpaid.
mrparker // July 16, 2009 at 7:42 am
I needed a place to rant about ESPN first take. Skip and the random dude of the day both called the fans “uninformed fanatics” for voting Lebron James the best player in the game for the ESPY awards. Their arguments centered on the fact that Kobe Bryant won the championship and Lebron didn’t. So I must post the major stats for the playoff run.
LBJ 51% 35pts 9reb 7ast
KB24 45% 30pts 5reb 5ast
Kobe’s numbers are amazing, especially considering they came during the playoffs. However, in now way shape or form do they come close to what Lebron James did in any context.
I am really bitter at the league’s GMs for surrounding the truly great players with less than stellar talent. Because of them I have to listen to “Bryant is CLEARLY the best player in the nba every time I turn on ESPN.”
rant over
While We’re Waiting…Paging Wimbley, Tressel’s Book, Frank Herrmann and Tiger Woods | WaitingForNextYear // July 18, 2009 at 6:00 am
[...] Should John Kuester even get comfy in Detroit? A basketball stat-man extraordinaire argues that he should just stick to renting: “But beyond that issue is the past history of Dumars. Dumars has fired successful coaches. He has been even quicker to fire unsuccessful coaches. This suggests that Kuester is not going to last in Detroit. Beyond what Dumars had done to coaches in the past, though, is the roster Dumars has assembled.” [Dave Berri/The Wages of Wins] [...]
larryp // July 18, 2009 at 6:36 am
Thanks for the numbers. I am simply stating that it is safe to say Big Baby improved as the season progressed. During the first three months of the year he shot 31% and during the remainder of the season he shot 47%. His points per shot increased from .93 to 1.1 during the same span. His other numbers per 48 minutes look more or less the same.
I do not think Big Baby is deserving on a full MLE nor do I think he very good. However, any analysis that tries to calculate how good/bad Big Baby is, but does not recognize that Big Baby is 23 years old, continues to improve his conditioning and his skill set, is in my estimation incomplete.
Moreover, while BBaby split his minutes between PF and center. To compare his numbers soley to PF may not be fair. Just food for thought.. Thanks
Previewing the Year of the Super Teams « The Wages of Wins Journal // October 28, 2009 at 5:41 am
[...] and Boston in the first round and therefore get to go home after the first round). Charlotte, Detroit, Miami, Indiana, Milwaukee, Philadelphia, and Toronto each have a team that could win between 30 [...]