Stephen Jackson stated the following a few days ago: “It’s just things are in the air right now. I really can’t get too much into it right now, but I’m just looking to go somewhere where I can go and win a championship.”
Translation: Jackson doesn’t think the Golden State Warriors are very good and he wants to be traded to a contender.
Evaluating Jackson
Jackson averaged 20.7 points per game last year, a mark that led Golden State. If all one cared about was scoring, then Jackson would be considered a very good player.
Of course, there are other aspects to the game of basketball. If we look at Jackson’s stats (at Basketball-Reference.com) a few deficiencies stand out. An average small forward has a 48.2% adjusted (or effective) field goal percentage. Jackson’s career mark is 47.5% and last year he only shot 46.6%. With respect to rebounds, net possessions (rebounds + steals – turnovers), and blocked shots, Jackson is also below average. Yes, he can get assists and steals. But his deficiencies overwhelm his few advantages.
As a consequence, although he has played 19,470 minutes in his career he has only produced 15.1 wins. His career WP48 is 0.037, well below the average mark of 0.100. In fact, in nine seasons Jackson has yet to be above average.
Last season the Warriors won 29 games. The team’s Wins Produced of 31.2 indicates Golden State was a slightly better than their record indicated. Looking at the players – reported in Table One – we can see who was responsible for these wins. Or in the case of Jackson, who was not really responsible. Last year Jackson was paid $6.6 million and only produced 2.4 wins.
Table One: Golden State Warriors in 2008-09
Beyond a relatively low level of productivity, Jackson is also old and expensive. Before the next season ends, Jackson will be 31 years of age. He is also scheduled to receive $35 million across the next four seasons.
Jackson on a Better Team
When we consider the entire Jackson picture, it seems a contender wouldn’t be helped much if they acquired his services. It’s also apparent that the Warriors shouldn’t care much if he departs. As it stands now, Jackson is going to get $10 million dollars in 2013-14. Given the age profile of NBA players, at that point he will be a very unproductive 35-year old player. So if the Warriors do find a contender that wants Jackson, now is the time to make a deal.
Let me close by noting the other argument made by Jackson. As noted a few weeks ago, the Warriors could improve next season. In other words, it’s possible that Jackson will get to play on a better team if he just stays where he is. Jackson is not likely to be the major reason the team improves, but he can still enjoy the additional wins.
Of course, I made this statement before the Warriors signed Mikki Moore. As I have noted in the past, Moore is not a very productive NBA player. And if Moore takes minutes from Andris Biedrins, Anthony Randolph, or Brandan Wright; Golden State’s attempt to turn this team around will not be helped. Nevertheless – despite the signing of Moore and the comments of Jackson – the Warriors could be much better next season. All it would take is a few different decisions (and yes, that does make it sound far easier than it is).
- DJ
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Our research on the NBA was summarized HERE.
The Technical Notes at wagesofwins.com provides substantially more information on the published research behind Wins Produced and Win Score
Wins Produced, Win Score, and PAWSmin are also discussed in the following posts:
Simple Models of Player Performance
What Wins Produced Says and What It Does Not Say
Introducing PAWSmin — and a Defense of Box Score Statistics
Finally, A Guide to Evaluating Models contains useful hints on how to interpret and evaluate statistical models.
8 responses so far ↓
Darrin Thompson // September 3, 2009 at 6:20 am
Now that you’ve done the former Pacer, I’m curious what you’ll have to say about the new “defensive minded” Pacers, Jones and Watson.
FanFeedr // September 3, 2009 at 6:58 am
Professor Berri, If I read you correctly, the Warriors could simply buy him out, start Azubuike or Curry (well, probably not, given the defensive issues he and Monta present when playing together) and call it a day.
The Moore pickup is curious, as you note, but I would ask who they should have picked up at the same cost who would have been more productive (and who is available?).
dberri // September 3, 2009 at 7:10 am
FanFeedr,
Why do the Warriors have to pick up anyone? They already had four big men who could play. If Moore is just going to be a practice player and not get into games, then it doesn’t matter. But if Moore does play, that really doesn’t help.
FanFeedr // September 3, 2009 at 7:26 am
That is a fair point, and they had already put forth that they would only carry 14 players this year for cost cutting purposes.
I think that they were getting tired of the press rumblings in the Bay Area that the team had stood pat while everyone in the middle and top tiers of the league reloaded. This has nothing to do with running a team properly, and more to do with public perception.
Great post.
Chris Cohan // September 3, 2009 at 9:37 am
Dave,
You know why, but for my own gratification:
They had to pick someone up so they can continue pushing Turiaf over Biedrins and now plug Moore in while never committing to talented but green young bigmen.
Difference is, they already milked the Randolph hype for all the tickets they’re going to sell. Now it’s back to business as usual.
badro3n // September 4, 2009 at 4:55 am
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Slick // September 9, 2009 at 10:20 pm
hmm, mikki moore was only signed because we needed another big. We have Randolph, Wright, Beidrins, Turiaf… and thats it… So if someone goes down, or 2 go down, or anything happens at all, instead of having the likes on Kurz or whatever else scrub they find from the D league, at least they will have a nba experienced player ready to pick up some minutes.
he was signed for depth, nothing more. seeing that b wright and biedrins both missed time last year, id say its a pretty good pickup, not sure why ppl make a big deal of this.
ROMESdavidWOOD37 // September 10, 2009 at 10:35 am
People made a big deal of the Mikki Moore pickup because we had Jermario Davidson who arguably is the same type of player. IMO, i like JD better because he is younger, well liked with the fans and players (AR, AMo, and him seemed to have developed a good chemistry), has a better 15 foot jumper, probably would have played more aggressive defense and would have been more aggressive on the boards because he was hungry.
JD got cut but I bet his injury played a role with his non-impressive play to the coaches’ perspective. But you know he aint gonna make excuses.
You’re right though, if Mikki Moore was brought in just for depth then it’s no big deal. I’m all for it. But what if the Warriors decide to kill AR’s minutes and play Mikki Moore 40 minutes a game.
You know its a big possibility because the Warrior organization make idiotic decisions like this all the time.
Go Warriors still or something.