The Milwaukee Bucks finished with a 50-32 mark in Don Nelson’s final season as head coach. That season marked the 7th consecutive season the Bucks finished with at least 50 wins. One suspects that Nelson takes some credit for this record. And although Wins Produced mostly credits Sidney Moncrief for Milwaukee’s success in the 1980s (a point made a few days ago), Nelson’s perspective is bolstered by the fact that Bucks have only have only reached 50 wins once in the 22 years since he left town.
This past season was consistent with the post-Nelson era. The Bucks finished with only 34 wins, a record that ranked 11th in the Eastern Conference. The team’s efficiency (offensive efficiency minus defensive efficiency), though, was -1.1; a mark that tied the Pacers for 9th in the conference. Translating this number into Wins Produced shows us that the Bucks should have expected to win 38 games, or just one game less than the Detroit Pistons. In sum, the Bucks were nearly a playoff team last season.
Turning to the individual players – reported in Table One – one can see who was responsible for these wins. Leading the way was Ramon Sessions, who finished the 2008-09 season with 9.0 Wins Produced and a 0.198 WP48 [Wins Produced per 48 minutes]. Sessions was not the only above average talent. An average player posts a 0.100 WP48; and Luc Mbah a Moute, Andrew Bogut, Luke Ridnour, and Michael Redd all played more than 500 minutes and posted a WP48 mark that was above par.
Table One: Milwaukee Bucks in 2008-09
Bogut and Redd, though, played fewer than half the team’s games. One suspects that if Bogut and Redd had been available the entire year, Milwaukee could have been a playoff team. No, the Bucks may not have won 50 games. But certainly they could have challenged the Hawks – a team with only 44.9 Wins Produced last year (or just seven more than the injured Bucks) — for the fourth seed in the East.
Of course, the injuries did happen and the Bucks missed the playoffs. In the off-season the team’s two leading scorers (in terms of total points scored) – Richard Jefferson and Charlie Villanueva – went elsewhere. And now Ramon Sessions has signed an offer sheet with the Minnesota Timberwolves. If Sessions leaves, a significant number of Wins Produced also departs. Given these departures, we shouldn’t be surprised that the experts at ESPN expect the Bucks to finish the 2009-10 season ranked 14th (out of 15 teams) in the Eastern Conference.
Then again, the Bucks haven’t just lost players. A few new faces have also come to town. And some of the new faces have actually been productive players in the past. In fact, when we actually look at the team’s current depth chart (a depth chart from ESPN.com that ignores Hakim Warrick) there’s reason for hope in Milwaukee.
First String
PG: Luke Ridnour, 0.106 WP48
SG: Michael Redd, 0.133 WP48
SF: Luc Mbah a Moute, 0.116 WP48 [at PF; 0.194 WP48 if he played SF]
PF: Hakim Warrick, 0.082 WP48
C: Andrew Bogut, 0.204 WP48
Second String
PG: Brandon Jennings (rookie)
SG: Charlie Bell, 0.037 WP48
SF: Carlos Delfino, 0.180 WP48 [at SG in 2007-08; 0.141 if he played SF]
PF: Kurt Thomas, 0.191 WP48
C: Francisco Elson, 0.011 WP48
Of these ten players, six are above average performers. If these players maintain this production, then the Bucks will not be one of these worst teams in the Eastern Conference in 2009-10. In fact, it’s possible this team will challenge the Hawks and Wizards for the fourth seed. In other words, the Bucks could actually reach the second round of the playoffs (where they will probably get blown out by the Cavaliers, Magic, or Celtics).
Before Milwaukee fans get too excited, there are a few bumps on the road to this vision. For all this to happen…
- Bogut and Redd need to be healthy.
- Joe Alexander – the team’s lottery choice in 2008 – needs to stay on the bench (or get much better).
- Unless Jennings can come in and be above average as a rookie (not a common occurrence), Ridnour has to continue as the team’s starting point guard.
- Delfino has to play and be productive as a small forward (where ESPN.com currently lists him on the depth chart).
In sum, there are some issues that need to be resolved. But if these issues are resolved the Bucks will be better than expected. And if that happens, Scott Skiles – the team’s head coach – might be Coach of the Year; an honor not given to a Milwaukee coach since Don Nelson coached Sidney Moncrief.
Let me close with another persepctive on the Bucks. Ty Willihnganz of Bucks Diary [mvn.com/bucksdiary] also expects Milwaukee to be in playoff contention in 2009-10. Here is how he summarizes Milwaukee’s prospects:
All in all, I think 40 wins is the STARTING POINT as far as what to expect from the Bucks in 2009-10, based upon each player’s career norms. And remember, NO ONE has ever accused me of being in the tank for the Bucks. If anything, I bend over in an attempt to err on the side of caution and pessimism. The bottom line is, I think, that the people who are projecting the Bucks among the worst in the NBA are Know-Nothing Pinheads who, like most analysts, wildly overvalue the contributions made by below average to average players like Charlie Villanueva and Richard Jefferson. The truth is, there is simply no credible evidence to support the notion of a dramatic Bucks collapse… in fact, everything points to improvement (Skiles is loving it… he’s going to look like the overachieving hero). So cheer up Bucks fans. We are nowhere near championship ground yet, but the team ought to show improvement, ought to play respectable defense, and frankly, ought to make the playoffs in 2009-10. Get your 10 packs ordered!
– DJ
The WoW Journal Comments Policy
Our research on the NBA was summarized HERE.
The Technical Notes at wagesofwins.com provides substantially more information on the published research behind Wins Produced and Win Score
Wins Produced, Win Score, and PAWSmin are also discussed in the following posts:
Simple Models of Player Performance
What Wins Produced Says and What It Does Not Say
Introducing PAWSmin — and a Defense of Box Score Statistics
Finally, A Guide to Evaluating Models contains useful hints on how to interpret and evaluate statistical models.
Wages of Wins Journal 
commut3r
September 7, 2009
Amir Johnson is a Raptor, traded there in exchange for Delfino and Ukic. Ersan Ilyasova will be the backup PF, though there’s a chance he may start if his improved Euro form carries over to the NBA.
dberri
September 7, 2009
That was a fast comment.
Yes, I forgot about that trade. And so did ESPN.com. Let me fix the post.
Ravenred
September 7, 2009
Thanks for this, Professor.
A glimmer of hope to generally despondent Bucks fans. BTW, do you have a prospective prediction on the number of wins both with and without Ramon Sessions being re-signed?
commut3r
September 7, 2009
That’s ok, got to keep you honest :)
Redd looks to me like he’s in decline, though its hard to tell with all his injuries. Its a bit of a stretch to assume he’ll come back healthy and play out the season though, and I could probably say the same for Bogut.
If Redd goes down it probably doesn’t hurt them that much. Delfino would slide over to the 2, leaving LRMaM and Warrick with most of the SF duties, and Ilyasova taking on the majority of PF minutes. If they lose Bogut though … they’ll struggle bigtime.
Btw, while its possible Warrick gets the starting PF job its by no means a given, as his lack of bulk and defense means he’ll get abused too often for Skiles’ liking. Bucks management have spoken highly of Ilyasova, who is now apparently a better defender, rebounder and can spread the floor with his ability to shoot the 3, something Warrick lacks. From a WP48 point of view though, Ilyasova’s pretty much an unknown.
FanFeedr
September 7, 2009
Given Commut3rs point about Warrick’s defense, and the amount of money that was spent on him, your larger point: “Ramon Sessions was their most productive player in terms of wins produced” begs a larger question: why sign Warrick and let him go? I know that the drafting of Jennings was for the near future, but this seems like bad team management.
Italian Stallion
September 7, 2009
I knew Sessions was a good player, but didn’t know he rated “that high” on this model.
Now I am even more pissed off the Knicks passed on him for 4M a year because of pipe dreams about signing James or Wade. 4M is a steal!
I can’t understand how any Knicks fan can defend Walsh on this one. Even if James or Wade actually consider leaving, the Knicks are going to have to field a decent team to get them. They look terrible to me right now (waiting for your report). Sessions would have helped.
Plus, they still have a whole year to trade Jeffries or Eddy Curry and could always move Nate’s deal or another sweetener to accomplish that.
Tim
September 7, 2009
The Bucks may challenge the Hawks and Wizards for the fourth seed? Does that mean my hometown Chicago Bulls will struggle just to get into the playoffs? I wouldn’t be surprised if they do struggle, but I would like to see your analysis.
dberri
September 7, 2009
Tim,
I haven’t looked at the Bulls yet. It could be that the Bucks, Wizards, and Bulls will challenge the Hawks for the fourth seed. I am looking at teams one at a time, so at this point I am not sure.
simon
September 7, 2009
The East looks very stacked and competitive in the middle. It’ll be a fun season to see who comes out of that group. Hawks, Bucks, Bulls, Raptors, Pacers, Sixers, etc.
brgulker
September 8, 2009
Makes me mad that the Pistons didn’t go after Sessions on the cheap instead of Ben Gordon for 58 million.
Ugh, ugh, ugh.
Phil
September 8, 2009
Tim,
From a WP perspective, the Bulls should be better. A full season out of Miller and Salmons, both (historically) above-average players, is a big improvement. Those minutes come in lieu of Nocioni, Gordon, Gooden, and Hughes, all (historically) average or worse players. Sefelosha is the only above-average player that they lost.
There’s even more reasons to be optimistic. Deng, having recovered from his injuries, may enjoy a return to form. Rose, Noah and Thomas are also all young, and many players at their age become more productive. The team is pretty young, so while decline is certainly possible, it is not as likely as it is for, say, the Mavs. Improvement more likely.
All that said, the Bulls should be better. But they’re still not close to the elite top-3 of the east.
Rob O'Malley
September 8, 2009
Hey DB I have a video that I’m pretty sure you will enjoy very thoroughly…
dberri
September 8, 2009
Thanks Rob. Can you send that to Matt Millen also?
Statement
September 8, 2009
Prof Berri,
Thank you kindly for undertaking great research and writing great articles.
As a Raptors fan, I was a little dishearted by what you had to say about them…but in my heart of hearts I know that Raptors fans are overrating them.
My hope hinges (faintly) on Andrea Bargnani somehow becoming a better rebounder and this team (somehow) playing better defense.
Hopefully they make the playoffs this year so we Torontonians have something, SOMETHING to cheer about (Remember, the leafs suck and the Jays have the supreme misfortune of playing in the most unfair division in pro-sports)
Anyways, keep up the good work
simon
September 8, 2009
Statement//
That was written prior to the latest moves made by the Raptors. If you are to believe dberri’s method, the team has improved significantly since and it has nothing to do with Bargnani.
Jack. A big improvment over the old PG back-ups. Ukic&Solomon were in the negative WP range and some of Kapono’s minutes will be taken by Jack, who’s about average in WP48.
DeRozan, Belinelli. Not by much, but they are still likely to be an improvement considering Kapono was awful(-0.5 WP48) and Marco is still young. If Wright plays a lot, not much.
M. Evans, Amir Johnson and Rasho. The wild card. If Bargnani averages 35+ minutes per game and these guys play less than 25 minutes per game combined, the improvement over O’Neal will be somewhat small, otherwise they could make a big difference depending on Johnson’s progress.
It’s nothing exhaustive and I haven’t put anything into spreadsheets, but I think the Raptors do have a shot at breaking the 40-win mark.
But cross your fingers so that Wright doesn’t get much playing time, and either Bargnani improves a lot and/or the new frontcourt guys play at their best and eat into Bargnani’s C/PF minutes.
Brothersteve
September 9, 2009
Just wanted an injury up date on Delfino.
Last I heard, he still hadn’t fully recovered from his injuries that ended his season in Russia. In a interview this summer, Carlos was giving it anywhere from 1 to 6 months more to heal fully.
reed
September 22, 2009
your expectations of the Bucks is very optimistic. before believing any of your article, it would have been nice if you also included the total points/stats generated/predicted for all of the teams in the East rather than just talking about the Bucks.. You make the bold prediction the bucks can compete for the 4th spot. What were the wizards and hawks stats? including arenas and hayward? wha t were the stats of the other teams in the East? how ca n yo u predict a ranking for the bucks, without also showing the stats / rankings of the other teams?
reed
September 23, 2009
Mr berri. i’m admittedly not a big fan of the win % player formulas. However, I’ m curious. how many teams have you actually finished ranking for 2009-2010? don’t you agree it would have been smarter to complete your ranking of all teams before you make bold optimistic predictions about some teams? isn’t it quite possible using your formulas on every Eastern team, once you are finished, you would find the bucks rank a lot closer to the 8th-12th best team in the East rather than your optimistic view that they might contend for the 4th slot with Atlanta and Washington?
Can you provide the names of the teams you have actually reviewed this year and what their rankings using your formula were ? and what your predictions for those teams based on your ranking will be? Are your rankings absolute? or would you rank a team higher even if your formula would clearly show the team is not as good as you would hope them to be?