The Buffalo Braves came into existence in 1970. After eight seasons the franchise moved to San Diego and was renamed the Clippers. After six seasons in San Diego the Clippers moved again, this time to Los Angeles. In each location this franchise has been immensely consistent. Year after year NBA fans can count on this team to be bad. Only five times in the history of the franchise has this team scored more points than they surrendered. And when we turn to efficiency differential (offensive efficiency minus defensive efficiency), we see that the team’s best marks were as follows:
1974-75 Braves: 1.9 differential (consistent with a 46 win team)
2005-06 Clippers: 1.7 differential (consistent with a 45 win team)
Last year, the Phoenix Suns posted a 2.0 differential and missed the playoffs in the Western Conference. So the Clippers very best season – at least with respect to efficiency differential – would have still landed this team in the lottery.
Only the Worst Performance in the League
Of course, last season was not the Clippers best season. As I noted a few days ago, the Clippers – again, in terms of efficiency differential – were the worst team in the NBA in 2008-09. Now this was not the worst team in franchise history. In 1986-87, 1987-88, 1994-95, 1998-99, and 1999-00 the Clippers posted lower differentials. Yes, five times the Clippers posted numbers below the dismal numbers seen last year. So although last year was not a disaster by Clipper standards, it was still quite bad by NBA standards.
When we turn to the performance of the individual players this team employed – reported in Table One – we can see why this team had so much trouble.
Table One: The LA Clippers in 2008-09
The Denver Nuggets gave Marcus Camby to the Clippers before the season started. And when he played he produced. In addition, the Clippers received above average production from Zach Randolph and DeAndre Jordan. Unfortunately, everyone else on the roster was below average. And Ricky Davis and Al Thornton managed to rank in the top ten of least productive players in 2008-09 (with Thornton leading the way).
Now the NBA – like other professional sports leagues in North America – makes an effort to reward failure (and punish success). And the Clippers failure led to Blake Griffin, the big reward in the 2009 NBA draft. Griffin’s college numbers suggest he will be a very productive NBA player, so it looks like the Clippers will improve in 2009-10.
Of course the Clippers only won 19 games last year. So even if Griffin is the second-coming of Tim Duncan (19.5 Wins Produced his rookie season in 1996-97), the Clippers still look like a lottery team. There is some hope, though, if we look elsewhere on the team’s potential depth chart.
Potential First String
PG: Baron Davis [1.5 Wins Produced, 0.032 WP48; 0.177 WP48 in 2007-08]
SG: Eric Gordon [3.8 Wins Produced, 0.067 WP48]
SF: Al Thornton [-2.6 Wins Produced, -0.047 WP48]
PF: Blake Griffin [Rookie]
C: Chris Kaman [0.5 Wins Produced, 0.025 WP48; 0.233 WP48 in 2007-08]
Potential Second String
PG: Sebastian Telfair [-2.2 Wins Produced, -0.049 WP48]
SG: Rasual Butler [4.2 Wins Produced, 0.077 WP48]
SF: Ricky Davis [-2.1 Wins Produced, -0.128 WP48; 0.034 WP48 in 2007-08]
PF: Craig Smith [1.8 Wins Produced, 0.060 WP48]
C: Marcus Camby [12.4 Wins Produced, 0.308 WP48]
In 2007-08, Baron Davis produced 11.8 wins while Chris Kaman’s Wins Produced stood at 10.1. B. Davis never really produced for the Clippers. But after 481 minutes in 2008-09, Kaman’s WP48 [Wins Produced per 48 minutes] stood at 0.200. Kaman, though, was soon hurt and his production plummeted. If Kaman is healthy in 2008-09, and B. Davis returns from whatever caused his production to drop-off last season, the Clippers could have four players – Camby, Griffin, B. Davis, and Kaman – capable of producing more than ten wins. Yes, the team still has Thornton, R. Davis, and the newly added Sebastian Telfair (and yes, I have a problem with the Telfair adjusted plus-minus story that I am saving for another day) holding the team back. But….
- if the Clippers could somehow get the negative players to be a bit less negative,
- if B. Davis and Kaman to return to form.
- if age doesn’t keep Camby off the floor or substantially reduce his production, and,
- if Griffin can produce as his college numbers suggest,
then the Clippers might post an efficiency differential in excess of 2.0. And that means, the 2009-10 Clippers might be the best team in the history of this franchise.
Yes, those are a lot of ifs. But if you are a Clipper fan, there is a chance this season could be truly memorable. No, it doesn’t seem likely the Clippers can rank among the league elite (usually the minimum requirement for a memorable season). And the playoffs might not happen (it looks like they will have to beat out the Suns). But in terms of efficiency differential, this season could be it. The franchise record – set by the Buffalo Braves 35 years ago – might finally be broken.
- DJ
The WoW Journal Comments Policy
Our research on the NBA was summarized HERE.
The Technical Notes at wagesofwins.com provides substantially more information on the published research behind Wins Produced and Win Score
Wins Produced, Win Score, and PAWSmin are also discussed in the following posts:
Simple Models of Player Performance
What Wins Produced Says and What It Does Not Say
Introducing PAWSmin — and a Defense of Box Score Statistics
Finally, A Guide to Evaluating Models contains useful hints on how to interpret and evaluate statistical models.
25 responses so far ↓
Man of Steele // October 19, 2009 at 10:38 am
Umm… So I guess I missed the memo on this, but I was looking around at basketball reference and saw that the Knicks had David Lee, Renaldo Balkman, and Nate Robinson all on their roster in 2006-07 and 07-08. It looks to me like they totally blew it. Once they began to give Robinson significant minutes he produced, Balkman produced well for the Nuggets this past season. They also had Quentin Richardson on those teams. Those his performance was affected by injury, he essentially been an average player across his career. During that time span, the team added Zach Randolph and Chris Duhon, both average to above average players generally. Also, I saw on one of Dr. Berri’s team reviews that they had Trevor Ariza in 2005-06 (and apparently let him go). So, to recap the Knicks could now have:
PG – Duhon and Robinson
SG – Richardson
SF – Ariza and Balkman
PF – Randolph
C – Lee (it seems like Dr. berri said somewhere recently that Lee played mostly C this year)
So the Knicks could have had a rotation with 7 average to above-average players, but let two cheap but productive players go (Ariza and Balkman).
That team could probably make the playoffs in the East, actually. The funniest thing, though, is that with all the talk about the Knicks trying to make cap room to sig LeBron James, they actually discarded good players who were cheap! Imagine if you added LeBron James to that team
JLewis // October 19, 2009 at 11:02 am
DeAndre Jordan is the wild card here. He’s not going to be a go to guy and he might not be able to give you more than 25-30m a night but he’s looking a lot like Tyson Chandler but bigger and stronger.
If Davis and Kaman return to form, this WILL be a 50 win team. If they are only average (.100) this will still be a .500 team even if they miss the playoffs.
This is the most talented team ever to put up such a dismal efficiency differential (primarily due to injuries). Go back and look at the other historically bad Clipper rosters and it’s pretty obvious to see why they were bad. This roster has too much talent to be an worse than mediocre. For the Clips, that’s a big step up.
Italian Stallion // October 19, 2009 at 12:09 pm
Man of Steele,
Your point is well taken, but not exactly accurate.
I’m prettys sure Ariza was part of the Francis deal. Francis was ultimately part of the deal that brought Randolph in. So they couldn’t have both Ariza and Randolph.
Other than that, Richardson sucks. LOL
IMHO, Balkman is another one of those hybid cases, but the opposite of what we usually see.
On several previous threads I expressed my view about Cs and PF that play more like SFs tending to get underrated by this system.
Well, IMO Balkman is a SF that plays more like a PF so he tends to get overrated.
Balkman can’t shoot a lick, but he finishes around the basket and rebounds well etc… So he rates as an efficient and productive player compared to the typical SF. However, because he cant’ shoot a lick, he can’t provide the floor spacing and outside shot we typically expect from a SF. That’s OK, but I think he needs to be teamed with a PF that has the typical skills of a SF. (see previous thread about Channing Frye)
On topic, I can’t wait to see Telfair’s Adj +/- for this year. LOL
Clippers4Life // October 19, 2009 at 12:21 pm
Yes the Clippers look great on paper; however, the preseason has showed how good Griffin is and how Brand like he can be. The Clippers will at least double last years totals, even if Baron Davis goes down. Telfair is very underrated, and picking up the options on Gordon and Thorton are something that only a winning owner usually would do.
Lu Galasso // October 19, 2009 at 1:06 pm
There’s talent there, no question, but can they put it together in spite of Coach Dunleavy? Time will tell.
TheHighPosts // October 19, 2009 at 2:01 pm
Early pre-season results have been mixed, so I’m not completely sold – first, is the team going to run more? I’d love to see their fast break and secondary fast break improve. Second, who is going to be The Guy in the fourth quarter? Seems like a bunch of guys standing around and wondering who is going to take the shot.
Dunleavy has all the talent and depth that he needs (though I’d like a better back-up PG), if he doesn’t make this work, we HAVE to get rid of him.
Top Posts « WordPress.com // October 19, 2009 at 5:54 pm
[...] The Best Clipper Team Ever? The Buffalo Braves came into existence in 1970. After eight seasons the franchise moved to San Diego and was renamed [...] [...]
Buck Nasty // October 19, 2009 at 5:59 pm
Thanks for the jinx, buddy. Another dismal season for Matt McHale to make fun of. /kills self.
VH // October 19, 2009 at 8:40 pm
Eric Gordon needs to grow into the go to guy. He has the talent, and an uncanny ability to draw fouls. If he can finish just a little better around the basket he could have all star potential.
As for the running situation, I have constantly wondered what the real story is. Dunleavy says it was Baron slowing things down, and Baron was saying it was Dunleavy. BD wasn’t healthy all season so that probably affected it. I went to the Laker/Clipper double header on Saturday and could see the clear difference in the lakers ability to push the ball. For whatever reason the clippers just arent getting it done.
Los Angeles Clippers Roundup 10/19 « FanRates // October 19, 2009 at 9:03 pm
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phoenix mattress // October 19, 2009 at 9:39 pm
gordon needs to become a better player for the clippers to have hope this year.
wow // October 20, 2009 at 12:00 am
Well the starting lineup would be great in a video game, but this is real life and anytime u have an imbecile as a coach…. ur fucked
todd2 // October 20, 2009 at 3:22 pm
Still a lot of holes. Davis isn’t a point guard, no shooters, no inside game, poor perimeter defense, poor rebounding. Griffin—best case scenario, another Charles Barkley, tough to keep off the boards and a matchup nightmare. Or, he’ll need to develop a face up game and he’s a year away.
VH // October 20, 2009 at 8:21 pm
You clearly have no idea what you are talking about. Baron has averaged 7.3 asts per game for his career. Gordon and Butler are solid outside shooters and “best case scenario” Griffin plays like a former MVP? yeah, that would be terrible.
denparser // October 20, 2009 at 8:30 pm
I like Clippers but I wonder their team is so unfortunate. Players are so great but too many loses in the game.
todd2 // October 21, 2009 at 11:48 am
Poor assist/turnover ratio, and look at fg%’s for the others.
VH // October 21, 2009 at 8:05 pm
gordon was 6th among sgs in adj fg% (tops among rookies of course)
VH // October 21, 2009 at 8:07 pm
rasual butler was 9th
and barons asst/to is low, but still well within the realm of pgs.
todd2 // October 22, 2009 at 4:18 am
Butler’s a career 40% shooter…diehard Clips fan? Props and good luck. I’m not arguing with the gist of this article. They should be competitive. Point is, there aren’t any All-Stars (or hall-of-famers) on this team—yet.
JLewis // October 22, 2009 at 10:18 am
todd2,
Are you not able to read what VH the “diehard clips fan” is saying or should we assume you don’t understand what an adjusted field goal % is?
Over 50% is actually pretty good for a shooting guard who takes a lot of 3’s.
todd2 // October 22, 2009 at 3:42 pm
Inside the arc—46%, poor. Outside, didn’t make 2 3’s per game. Doesn’t qualify as a lot.
todd2 // October 22, 2009 at 4:19 pm
What the numbers suggest about EG: 85% FT’s; the dude’s got a stroke. He’s not getting a lot of looks from beyond the arc, teams are crowding him and forcing the drive and getting 46%. He can a.) devel0p a mid-range game a la’ DWade, b.) rely on his team to screen for him, c.) rely on his PG to draw and kick and set him up, or d.) play an inside/out game with a post player that draws double-teams.
I have an issue with espn’s afg%. I’m rounding—12 fga’s at 46% and 4 3a’s at 60% (1.5 x 40%) shouldn’t equal 53%. The percentages should be weighted according to the attempts of each.
todd2 // October 22, 2009 at 4:43 pm
Caught a mistake with the fg% rant—apologies. Gordon’s afg% is higher than Wade’s and Roy’s. What separates him from those two? Looks like the Clips need to find a way to get him more shots and he needs to find a way to contribute more in the areas of steals/assists/fta’s/rebounds. If that happens he’ll be pretty good…we’re talking about a guy with a WP of 0.67. He’s been perf0rming below average but may still have some upside. Time will tell.
reservoirgod // October 24, 2009 at 5:50 pm
I’ve just created an ESPN NBA.COM Fantasy League based on Win Score. You can check out the scoring settings for the league at http://games.espn.go.com/fba/tools/leaguesettings?leagueId=133748. I’m looking for other members to join the league before the season starts. If you’re interested, send your email address to reservoirgod at hotmail dot com.
Previewing the Year of the Super Teams « The Wages of Wins Journal // October 29, 2009 at 12:51 pm
[...] has a shot (Corey Maggette is again listed on the Yahoo.com depth chart at power forward). The LA Clippers also have a shot (at least, if Blake Griffin comes back soon). And Phoenix also has a chance. [...]