What a difference a day made
Twenty-four little hours
Brought the sun and the flowers
Where there used to be rain
Okay, it’s actually snowing in Cedar City. That aside, yesterday is a bit different from today. And it’s not just the weather that changed. Yesterday I argued that Andrew Bynum isn’t quite back. Then last night, Mr. Bynum scores 26 points (on just 18 field goal attempts) and grabs 15 rebounds. His WP48 [Wins Produced per 48 minutes] for the game was 0.496. And now his season mark is 0.229. No, he isn’t quite back to what he was in 2007-08. But after eight games, he’s clearly offering more than what we saw last year.
As a team, the Lakers also look better today. Prior to last night’s game the team’s efficiency differential was 5.4. Today it’s 7.1, and Pau Gasol hasn’t played yet.
So what’s the moral of the story? Writing about stats and basketball before the first ten games has been played is a risky business (even if you are just looking at the generally consistent box score numbers). One game can have a significant impact on your story. Yesterday I argued that Bynum wasn’t really much different from what he was last year, and therefore, the Lakers had not really improved enough to repeat as champions. Today… well, Bynum is still not back to what he was in 2007-08 (unless he just keeps doing what he did last night). But if I were a fan of the Lakers, I would certainly be a bit more optimistic.
- DJ
The WoW Journal Comments Policy
Our research on the NBA was summarized HERE.
The Technical Notes at wagesofwins.com provides substantially more information on the published research behind Wins Produced and Win Score
Wins Produced, Win Score, and PAWSmin are also discussed in the following posts:
Simple Models of Player Performance
What Wins Produced Says and What It Does Not Say
Introducing PAWSmin — and a Defense of Box Score Statistics
Finally, A Guide to Evaluating Models contains useful hints on how to interpret and evaluate statistical models.
9 responses so far ↓
Lior // November 13, 2009 at 9:22 am
Off-topic: There’s a new attempt to analyse football (soccer) by statistical methods — see here. Money quote: “[w]e have found [that] goals scored and goals allowed, when adjusted in this fashion, are a much better predictor of future results than wins and losses alone.”
Rashad // November 13, 2009 at 9:37 am
Funny. I had the exact same thought when I saw the box score for the laker game. “I wonder what Bynum’s WP48 is now?”
Westy // November 13, 2009 at 9:37 am
Might it be that Bynum is looking good because Gasol is not playing?
It will be very interesting to watch how his stats go down when Gasol comes back.
stephanie // November 13, 2009 at 6:10 pm
Speaking of stats over a small sample size, Chris Paul after 9 games is shooting 63% FG and 65% from three. Words fail.
I wonder how Kobe’s Hakeem induced love for the low block will affect his WP. Or if he will continue this strategy when Gasol comes back.
Italian Stallion // November 13, 2009 at 9:09 pm
Is WP48 tracked anywhere so I can look up players from time to time?
Michael // November 14, 2009 at 12:57 am
Yes Paul is definitely earning his new msm title of ‘the planets best point guard’. It doesnt count for much around here I know but his per so far has been nuts. I still can’t believe Rondo had the gall to talk down to him the other game, what a jerk.
Rocabatus // November 14, 2009 at 2:09 am
Speaking of what 24 hours can do…
The Lakers got trounced yesterday. And while I’m not sure about the effect on Bynum’s wp48, their efficiency differential predictably plummeted.
ilikeflowers // November 14, 2009 at 12:38 pm
I think that using WinScore weights with standard NBA stat packaging gives a fairly intuitive and succinct summary of what happened.
FGM is replaced by Effective FGM = 1/2Net Points = 1/2(Points + 1/2Assists – 1/2PF)
FMA is replaced by Effective FGA = FGA + 1/2FTA – 1/2Blocks
boards is actually Net Possessions
LA STARTERS
Ron Artest………….6 for 17 with 1 board
Lamar Odom………….7 for 21 with 7 boards
Andrew Bynum………..9 for 16 with 12 boards
Kobe Bryant………..10 for 24 with 0 boards
Derek Fisher………..1 for 8 with 0 boards
BENCH
Josh Powell…………0 for 5 with 1 board
Luke Walton…………1 for 3 with 0 boards
Shannon Brown……….1 for 10 with 5 boards
Adam Morrison……….1 for 9 with 4 boards
Sasha Vujacic……….0 for 5 with 3 boards
D.J. Mbenga……….(1) for (1) with 2 boards
Jordan Farmar……….4 for 11 with 2 boards
Denver STARTERS
Kenyon Martin……….5 for 6 with 10 boards
Carmelo Anthony…….12 for 24 with 4 boards
Nene……………….7 for 11 with 6 boards
Chauncey Billups…….5 for 15 with 2 boards
Arron Afflalo……….4 for 8 with 3 boards
BENCH
Malik Allen…………0 for 1 with 1 board
Chris Andersen………4 for 11 with 11 boards
Joey Graham…………1 for 2 with 0 boards
Renaldo Balkman……..0 for 1 with 3 boards
J.R. Smith…………10 for 28 with 2 boards
Johan Petro…………0 for 2 with 2 boards
Ty Lawson…………..8 for 12 with 2 boards
It’s very easy to spot who had exceptionally good (Bynum, Martin, Nene, Lawson) and exceptionally bad (Artest, Fisher, most of the LA bench, Billups, Smith) games.
What do you think?
todd2 // November 15, 2009 at 5:10 am
LA scored 8 points in the 3rd. Uncharacteristic meltdown for a veteran team.