The NBA season tips-off tonight so I thought I would offer a forecast of this season. For the most part, this is a somewhat educated guess. And, as I note at the end of the post, hopefully at least some of this is wrong.
Before we get to my guesses, there are a few issues that need to be noted that will impact the accuracy of this forecast. The most important issue is player health. People often say injuries are no excuse. But we know if you change the people in the clothes you will change the outcomes we observe. As I have said before, not only are injuries an excuse, often they are THE excuse.
But injuries are not the only excuse. Although the best predictor of current performance is what the player did in the past, player performance can deviate from what we saw in previous campaigns. Some players will get better this year. Some will get much worse. And right now we do not know the identity of these players.
Finally, even if we know the performance of the player and he doesn’t suffer injuries, coaches ultimately have to decide to put the players on the floor. And as we argue in The Wages of Wins, sometimes coaches don’t evaluate players perfectly.
Okay, given the caveats, here are the forecasts. Oh wait, two more points. I did not actually forecast each player’s future production and then determine how many wins the team can expect. One can do this, I guess, but it would take time (which I don’t have). All I did was look at the rosters, thought briefly about what we know about these player’s past performance (and what we might expect of the rookies), and then guessed. Given this method, I am not going to forecast specific records, but I will note the expected playoff participants, with teams listed in alphabetical order in each category.
Eastern Conference
Home Court in the Playoffs: Chicago Bulls, Detroit Pistons, Cleveland Cavaliers, Miami Heat
On the Road in the Playoffs: Indiana Pacers, New Jersey Nets, Orlando Magic, Washington Wizards
Lottery Bound: Atlanta Hawks, Boston Celtics, Charlotte Bobcats, Milwaukee Bucks, New York Knicks, Philadelphia 76ers, Toronto Raptors
Comments: The top teams in the Eastern Conference are Miami and Chicago. I think Detroit and Cleveland can secure home court in the first round, but neither team should win as much as the Heat or Bulls. Of the remaining playoff spots I see New Jersey, Orlando, and Washington as likely post-season participants. Indiana is my choice for the 8th slot, over Milwaukee, Boston, or Philadelphia.
It is important to note that there are only eight slots. Barring injuries, many of these slots looked to be claimed by the teams I identified. For a team like New York – which I think hopes to make the playoffs under Isiah – one of the eight teams I identified has to slip. At this point I can’t see the Knicks making it past any of these teams.
Western Conference
Home Court in the Playoffs: Dallas Mavericks, Houston Rockets, Phoenix Suns, San Antonio Spurs
On the Road in the Playoffs: Denver, LA Clippers, LA Lakers, New Orleans
Lottery Bound: Golden State, Memphis, Minnesota, Portland, Sacramento, Seattle, Utah
Comments: The Western Conference is much harder to forecast. Four teams I see as the Best in the West: Dallas, San Antonio, Phoenix, and Houston. Of these, Houston and Phoenix have serious injury issues to overcome.
After these four, there are four slots that can be taken by eight teams. The only teams that I doubt can make the playoffs in the West are Portland, Memphis (only because Gasol will not be there much of the season), and Golden State (although Baron Davis did look good in the preseason and Nelson is a good coach).
Now that I have forecasted the playoffs, I shall now make a guess at the playoff outcomes. As noted, I see the East as a contest between Miami and Chicago. At this point, Miami is the favorite to get past the Bulls and reach the NBA Finals.
In an earlier post I pointed out that although several teams are serious contenders out West, only one team gets to reach the Finals. My guess, and this is really just a guess at this point, is that Dallas represents the West.
So this means I am forecasting Dallas to play Miami again in the Finals. Okay, that is not an interesting forecast. All that work and all I am saying is that the Finals in 2007 will be the same as the Finals in 2006. That is boring, uninteresting, and completely lacks imagination.
Therefore I am going to go in a different direction. Let’s have Chicago take out Miami in the East. And out West, I am going to take Phoenix.
Had I gone with my first – very boring – forecast, I would take Dallas in the Finals. But with my new and more interesting forecast I am going to take… Chicago.
Obviously I am just guessing. Basically there are six contenders for the title – Miami, Chicago, Dallas, San Antonio, Phoenix, and if they are healthy, Houston.
That being said, given that I am an economist (and prone to incorrect forecasts), the actual champion will probably be someone not on this list. Although basketball is not as uncertain as baseball and football, there is still uncertainty of outcome on the hardwood. This means that any forecast will have error, and that should be thought of as a good thing. If it were the case that someone could know with certainty the outcome of the season before it started, then this is no longer a sport, but rather something like professional wrestling.
UPDATE: There were a few comments yesterday, but no one pointed out the obvious flaw in my forecast. The NBA gives home court advantage to the three division winners and then the team with the best record who did not win a division. With respect to both the Eastern Conference and Western Conference I had three teams slated to earn home court advantage from the same division — Chicago, Detroit, Cleveland in the Central and Dallas, San Antonio, Houston in the Southwest. Given these rules, I am going to forecast New Jersey to take the Atlantic and Detroit to finish in third in the Central (although Cleveland taking third would not be surprising). In the West, Houston finishes third in the Southwest. I guess someone has to win the Northwest and I will guess that someone will be Denver. Actually, giving home court to a team in the Northwest is a shame. None of those teams are very impressive.
— DJ
Wages of Wins Journal 
Tom Philpott
October 31, 2006
DJ, I admire your analysis, but the writing here could be tightened dramatically. EG, “In an earlier post I pointed out that although several teams are serious contenders out West, only one team gets to reach the Finals. My guess, and this is really just a guess at this point, is that Dallas represents the West.”
The first sentence is true, but needs no pointing out; one doesn’t need to read Wages of Wins to know only one team comes out of the West. The only information in the second sentence is that Dallas is your pick–any predictions regarding something so far in the future are clearly “just a guess.”
A better written sentence: “The West is too loaded with serious contenders to have an emphatic favorite, but my early guess is that Dallas will emerge.”
Also, do you ever wonder about facets that aren’t captured by stats? Eg, maybe the 2001 Sixers rallied around their hard-charging star, pulling up their performances; and maybe KG’s intensity can tend to turn off his teammates?
anyway, love the blog. Cheers
Jake
October 31, 2006
First, i would like to point out that this is a web log, not an academic journal, a newspaper article, or an essay written for a class. As such, it really isn’t in good taste to offer critiques of the blogger’s writing style.
Secondly, i agree that the above listed teams seem to be th emost likely to contend in the NBA this year. However, i would like to see a discussion of which so called ‘bubble’ teams have the most potential to change their fortunes. Which squads do you think have player capable of dramatically increasing their win production, either by changes in their game, or just additional playing time?
Travis
October 31, 2006
DJ,
Any thoughts/predictions as to who will win the MVP and who should win the MVP?
Kent
October 31, 2006
DJ, do you know if cats eat spaghetti? Thank you.
Best Regards,
Kent
Erich
October 31, 2006
Wow. Those Bulls looked strong. I was little less optimistic on them, but tonight they played closer to your projection than mine (49 wins). Its a long season.
Tyrus Thomas got in the game early and may have a significant role until Skiles goes through a random rotation shuffle. That kid looks good.
dberri
October 31, 2006
Glad to see the comments. Let me see if I can offer some intelligent responses.
Tom: Not sure what to say about the writing comment. The point I was trying to make was that although there are a number of contenders out west, all but one are going to be unhappy. That may not be that brilliant of an observation, still one gets the sense in listening to the coverage of the NBA that every team is going to make the playoffs and every team is going to contend for the title. That, of course, seems hard to believe.
About the stats questions… The position we take is that without the stats you cannot win. In other words, teams need to shoot efficiently, rebound, avoid turnovers, etc… to win games. Once we understand how these factors relate to wins we can see how productive a player has been. What you note might be part of the question of why a player is productive. We offer some insights into the book on this topic, but there are factors that we have not quantified that might matter. Certainly there is more research to be done, especially with respect to the importance of coaching (a project I am still working on).
Jake: Not sure about the ‘bubble teams.’ How about Golden State if Baron Davis plays really well? Or Utah if Kirilenko and Boozer are healthy? Or Orlando if Grant Hill plays an entire season? You probably could do this with many teams. About changing minutes… I would like to see how player performance changes as one goes from few minutes to major minutes. That is yet another project I hope to get to in the future.
Travis: For Most Productive in 2006-07 I am going to pick Kevin Garnett. He has done it four years in a row, so he is the king for now. As for MVP, that will probably not be Garnett. I am not sure Minnesota can make the playoffs, so Garnett won’t be voted MVP. LeBron James or Dwyane Wade are possibilities. Wade certainly will win of commercials are part of the voting. Duncan and Nowitzki will also get consideration. And if Phoenix wins the West, Nash could three-peat. I suspect, though, that voters are going to grow tired of voting for Nash. So he could play very well and still not win.
Erich: The Bulls were good tonight, but as you say, it is a long season So one game means nothing. I would also add that my forecast for the Bulls also means nothing. At least, I am not sure you can predict exact win totals just by looking at what a team’s players did last year. We don’t know injuries before the season starts. And we don’t know minutes. That is why I didn’t do that for any other team. The data did say the Bulls would be much better than last year, and I think I will stand by that. But I am hoping, as a Pistons fan, that 60+ wins doesn’t happen for Chicago.
Erich
November 1, 2006
Thanks for the response, Prof,
I would suggest your forecast for the Bulls means something. It means, that in your educated guess world, the Bulls are a top 2 team in the east. And you can predict totals, and you can be wrong, and thats ok. Minutes & Injuries are always a question mark, but so is an individual FG attempt.
I think I’m angling for a basketball prediction system much like baseball’s PECOTA, Diamond Mind, or Zips. I’d love to see competing predictions from Vegas, Hollinger, yourself, Beech, and any other analyts. This kind of competition/cooperation can drive basketball analysis to develop better models and reveal the most significant factors in basketball success.
Dr. Dick
November 3, 2006
I want to work on the project that examines what happens to player performance as minutes rapidly increase from one year to the next.
DC
dberri
November 3, 2006
Dr. Dick,
Does that mean you are about to come out of your retirement and get to work?