Last September I noted the following quote from Richard Peddie [President and CEO of Maple Leafs Sports & Entertainment Ltd., which owns both the Toronto Maple Leafs and the Toronto Raptors]:
“I’m a great believer in continuous learning. I do it mostly through reading. I devote at least an hour a day to reading, although some days it’s more. I read Fortune, Forbes, Business Week and the dailies. But I go beyond the business section and read the whole paper. All of it is ripe with ideas. I also get a clipping service for basketball stories. I keep current on everything from sports marketing to player moves.”
“I’m really trying to read different books to get more perspective. I joke that I’ve read all the leadership books. The last one was the The Wages of Wins: Taking Measure of the Many Myths in Modern Sport, which I’m getting my hockey and basketball general managers to read.
From this quote it appears that Bryan Colangelo, general manager of the Toronto Raptors, has read The Wages of Wins.
If we look at what Colangelo has done in Toronto, it’s not immediately apparent that he was tremendously influenced by what his employer asked him to read. Rather, it seems like he is doing his best to construct a team that might appeal to a population more enamored with Europe than the United States. In the past year the Raptors have added several players of European origin – including Andrea Bargnani, Jorge Garbajosa, and Rasho Nesterovic. Even Anthony Parker, who is from the United States, spent many years playing in Europe.
One wonders if Canadians – disenchanted with the United States in recent years — plan on pulling a Bugs Bunny move and cut Canada off from the United States, ship the nation across the Atlantic, and then attach it to Europe (is the Bugs Bunny reference too obscure?). If this happens, the team Colangelo is assembling will fit right in.
Actually, relying on players born outside the United States has worked very well for the San Antonio Spurs, who have Tim Duncan, Manu Ginoboli, and Tony Parker. Of course these international players do something Toronto’s international players do not, i.e. produce wins.
When we look at this team after 37 games – which you can see HERE – we can see where the wins on this team are coming from. And despite the international flavor of this team, it’s the Americans who are producing what few wins this team has this season. The top players are Chris Bosh, T.J. Ford, and Morris Peterson. Bosh has improved over last year, and is coming closer to producing as much as LeBron James and Dwyane Wade, the two more celebrated members of his draft class.
Once we get past Bosh, Ford, and Peterson, though, this team gets virtually nothing from the other players averaging twenty or more minutes of playing time each game. Bargnani – the first player taken in the 2006 draft – has been quite disappointing. Thus far he is threatening Adam Morrison for the title of least productive rookie in 2006-07. So far Morrison is still the front-runner, but Bargnani remains a threat to win that crown.
Although this team is below average, it occupies the worst division in the history of professional sports (I wonder if that is true). Consequently Toronto might make the playoffs and thus lose out on a lottery pick that could actually improve this team in 2007-08. And that would be a problem. Despite the talents of Bosh and Ford, this team still needs quite a bit (another productive big man, depth everywhere but especially in the backcourt) to become a true contender in the NBA.
– DJ
Wages of Wins Journal 
TK
January 14, 2007
A little edit: The title tag for your Raptors stats URL remains “The Cleveland Cavaliers in 2006-07”
dberri
January 14, 2007
TK,
I know. I was lazy so I just inserted the Raptors information into the Cavaliers table.
Okapi
January 14, 2007
In this post you criticize Morrison and Bargnani. But instead of benchmarking their respective performances against the average NBA players at their positions, perhaps a more lenient benchmark should be provided since they are rookies. Maybe the general improvement from rookie to sophomore seasons is such that a slightly “below-average” first year typically prefaces an “above-average” second year. So its’s worth the sacrifice in performance in the first year to contribute to the development of that player for the following year.
dberri
January 14, 2007
Okapi,
It is true that some players get better in their second years. Bargnani and Morrison, though, are well below the average NBA player. Each could improve quite a bit and still be below average. It is too early to draw conclusions on each player, but the early returns are not promising.
Okapi
January 14, 2007
Thanks for your reply to my comment.
Loosely relatedly, I liked the all-rookie team study in your book.
(Described by Malcolm Gladwell as: “In one clever piece of research, they analyze the relationship between the statistics of rookies and the number of votes they receive in the All-Rookie Team balloting. If a rookie increases his scoring by ten per cent—regardless of how efficiently he scores those points—the number of votes he’ll get will increase by twenty-three per cent. If he increases his rebounds by ten per cent, the number of votes he’ll get will increase by six per cent. Every other factor, like turnovers, steals, assists, blocked shots, and personal fouls—factors that can have a significant influence on the outcome of a game—seemed to bear no statistical relationship to judgments of merit at all.”
http://www.newyorker.com/critics/books/articles/060529crbo_books1?060529crbo_books1 )
JChan
January 16, 2007
If you are still taking requests, I’d like to see an analysis of the Seattle Supersonics. I am a Utah Jazz fan and keep seeing rumors of trades involving my favorite player, Andrei Kirilenko. The only trade I’ve heard that interests me is something involving Ray Allen. I’d like to see if his Wins Produced holds up to his incredible PER and super-star status.
rob
January 16, 2007
That’s fascinating. I’m intrigued by the numbers for two players: P.J. Tucker and Andrea Bargnani. Tucker, the unheralded rookie, has very impressive wins produced numbers. As a reward, the Raps have shipped him to the D-League. Bargnani, the first overall pick, is enjoying more playing time and posting better numbers as the season progresses despite the fact that he is apparently hurting the team.
I was wondering if you could provide a little more detail as to why Bargnani is having so negative an impact. What does he need to improve? I’m also wondering what Dirk Nowitzki’s stats were in his rookie season, given that he is the player to whom Bargnani is most often compared.
Thanks for a fascinating book and blog.
dberri
January 16, 2007
JChan,
The Sonics will be the next team I look at. Hopefully that will be posted by the end of the week.
Rob,
Just glancing at Bargnani’s stats: He has trouble getting rebounds and he can’t shoot very well. This is exactly the same problem with Morrison. And I just glanced at Nowitski’s stats and I see he had the same problems his rookie season. Of course that does not mean that Bargnani is destined to be as good as Nowitzki in future years. I am sure there have been many players who could not rebound or shoot their rookie year and never learned how to do either task.
Matt
February 2, 2007
Watch a Raptors game before jumping to statistical conclusions.
Craig
February 26, 2007
Wow.
I have yet to read a more off the mark articale on the Toronto Raptors than this. Do you actually WATCH games, or just look at stats? Bargnani can’t shoot well???? HAHAHA. Dude, you need to get off your lily white ass and actually learn a bit abou tthe game of basketball, then actually VIEW a Raptor game before you toss out statements like the ones I just read. Mo Pete????? The best????? Jesus man, is this actually a joke?