Dwyane Wade went down with an injury about three weeks ago. At this time, the Miami Heat had a record of 26-27 and I had just analyzed the Heat’s chances to repeat. This analysis indicated that Wade was the team’s most productive player. Unfortunately several aging veterans were not producing like they had in the past. Hence the team did not look capable of repeating as champions.
Table One: The Miami Heat 52 Games
Typically when you lose your most productive player, especially someone who has produced 11.6 wins and posted a Wins Produced per 48 minutes [wp48] of 0.318, you can expect the team to suffer. The Heat, though, have not suffered. Since the injury the Heat have played eleven games and won nine. In sum, without their best player, the Heat have improved dramatically. How is this possible?
Let’s start with what the Heat look like after 63 games.
Table Two: The Miami Heat 63 Games
After 63 game s this team has still failed to outscore their opponents. So it should not be surprising that Wins Produced only sums to 30.2 when the team had actually won 34 contests (the Heat also won their 64th game, but NBA.com did not update their data, so we are looking at the team after 63 games).
The leading wins producer on this team after 63 games is still Wade. The team, though, has thrived in his absence, so who can we credit for this outcome?
Miami’s Fountain of Youth
The obvious choice is Shaquille O’Neal. Shaq’s WP48 stands at 0.143 after 63 games. Given that his mark was only -0.40 after 52 games (when he had only played 13 games), we can see that O’Neal has improved dramatically. From game 52 to game 63, Shaq posted a WP48 of 0.328. This mark is quite close to his career average of 0.338. In other words, since the injury the Shaq of old has replaced the old Shaq we saw earlier in the season.
Table Three: The Career Performance of Shaq O’Neal
It would be a mistake to think Shaq has been the only one responsible for the Heat’s new found winning ways. Alonzo Mourning has raised his WP48 from 0.033 after 52 games to 0.057 after 63 contests. So over the eleven intervening games his WP48 has been 0.221. Given a career mark of 0.211, we see that like Shaq, Mourning has also returned to what he was of old.
Table Four: The Career Performance of Alonzo Mourning
Of course Mourning is only playing 15.5 minutes a night, so he could not be a big part of the story. To see where else the Heat found wins you need to move away from the front court and notice Eddie Jones, the shooting guard who took Wade’s place in the line-up.
Table Five: The Career Performance of Eddie Jones
Eddie Jones is in his 13th NBA season. Entering this season he has produced 105.4 wins (the same mark as Alonzo Mourning) and posted a WP48 of 0.167 (he has played more minutes than Mourning). E. Jones has never been below average, which is what you can also say about Shaq (Mourning was only below average once, in 2003-04 when he played 215 minutes right after his recovery from the illness that kept him out of 2002-03 season).
Earlier this year with Memphis E. Jones was both injured and posting below average numbers. Since joining the Heat, though, the E. Jones has posted a WP48 of 0.239. Although this is not quite what the Heat were getting from Wade, when you couple the performance of Eddie Jones with the resurgence of Shaq (and a little help from Mourning), you can see how the Heat survived the lost of Flash.
Is Wade Overrated?
The inevitable question that arises when a team thrives in a star’s absence is whether or not the star is over-rated. What we see in the numbers is that the Heat have done well because Shaq, Mourning, and E. Jones have returned to what they have been much of their career. Because these players were available to the Heat, the loss of Wade was overcome.
The Wade story does illustrate how evaluating a player by looking at how the team does with and without his services is problematic. Wade is definitely one of the best players in the game. But the Heat also have other players who have been among the best in the game in the past. With these players able to regain their past form it has given us the illusion that Wade is overrated. Nothing could be further from the truth.
We do see, though, that if Wade can return to the court this season and produce like he was in the first half of this year, the Heat have a very good chance to win the East and return to the NBA Finals. Of course, Wade returning and being productive is a big “if”. But if it happens, it is possible that the NBA could see another team repeat as NBA Champions.
– DJ
Wages of Wins Journal 
Chris
March 16, 2007
The tough thing about evaluating Shaq is you never know if he’s giving 100%. I think his performance earlier this year was part injury and part apathy. Now that he’s needed he’s decided to step it up.
I also think the reports of Shaq’s demise are a little too early. His contributions are still beyond any metric. Having Shaq in the lineup completely alters how the other team plays defense. Plus, I’d guess that he gets opposing post players in foul trouble at a much higher rate.
It seems like everyone seems to think that Wade is the superior player but Shaq scores efficiently (besides FTs), gets rebounds, forces double teams, and provides an above-average defensive presence down lown.
Okapi
March 16, 2007
I just want to make a trivial point about how 11 games is a small sample. I don’t know what the variability of Win Score per game is for the typical player, but it’s presumably big enough that an 11 game sample offers only a very noisy estimate of ability.
Also, Chris’ comment about Shaq not necessarily giving 100% always is good intuition for why some players might show elevated performance in play-offs. (Though I guess this turns out to not be empirically true in general.)
dberri
March 16, 2007
Okapi,
You are correct, 11 games is a poor sample if your objective was to determine a player’s ability. In the case of Shaq, Alonzo, and Eddie Jones, we know their long term ability. What we saw in these eleven games is evidence that over a short period of time, each player still has “it.” Can they sustain this over time? We will see over the last 18 games of the season and into the playoffs.
I also agree that Shaq may not have been giving his all early on. He certainly has said that he was intentionally deferring to Wade with respect to scoring. What is interesting is that as Shaq scored less, he also seemed to rebound less. Not sure who he was deferring to with respect to rebounding.
The Franchise
March 17, 2007
Maybe Shaq’s “deferential” mood makes him less aggressive in all areas of the game, so he’s less intense when rebounding as well. Just an hypothesis, though, which may or may not actually describe reality.
Chris
March 17, 2007
I also agree that a sample size of 11 games means almost nothing. With most players I’d potentially attribute it to an injury, playing against a stretch of inferior opponents, or maybe just a string of abnormally productive games. But with Shaq, who has openly gloated about saving his best for the playoffs, I almost expect it.
If there were one thing I’d guess is a result of the sample size, it would be rebounding. From what I’ve seen rebounding is a combination of strength/size (explains why Barkley, Fortson, etc. are effective), athleticism (Dwight Howard), technique, and effort. I haven’t watched enough of Shaq to gauge his technique, but his athleticism will never be what it once was. I’d guess his improved rebounding is more a function of the sample than increased effort.
Still, I think one of the interesting subplots for the rest of the season will be to see how much Shaq has left in the tank. My guess is he has more than the ESPN experts credit him for.
Robert
May 7, 2007
I feel this game is tough.