In Game One of the 2007 NBA Finals LeBron’s Win Score was 0.0. Obviously this was not how he wished to play in his first game on the NBA’s biggest stage. One wonders, though, is this evidence that the Spurs have a magical LeBron defense? Or did LeBron just have a “bad” game?
Let me begin with what I know about LeBron. In his first four seasons he offered the following with respect to Wins Produced and Wins Produced per 48 minutes [WP48].
2003-04: 6.4 wins; 0.099 WP48
2004-05: 21.7 wins; 0.307 WP48
2005-06: 20.4 wins; 0.292 WP48
2006-07: 17.4 wins; 0.262 WP48
After four seasons he has produced 65.9 wins with a 0.242 WP48. In sum, LeBron is a very good player, although not yet as good as Jordan. In Jordan’s first four seasons he posted a WP48 of 0.344. Still, LeBron is very good.
Although LeBron is definitely a great player, he played very badly against the Spurs. One wonders, how often does this kind of a performance happen? I typically look at performance across a season, so this is not the question I generally can answer. Luckily, Basketball-Reference provides box score data for every NBA game LeBron has ever played.
Thus far he has played 316 regular season contests and 30 playoff games. When we look at his regular season games, we see that his Win Score has equaled zero, or wandered into the negative range, 26 times (or 8% of the time). Most of these dismal performances – seventeen if you wish to be specific – occurred during his freshman season with the Cavaliers. This past season it happened only four times (in 2005-06 it only happened twice, although it also happened once in the 2006 playoffs).
Interestingly, a Win Score less than or equal to zero had never occurred against the Spurs before Game One of the 2007 Finals. It’s actually another Texas team, the Rockets, that has often frustrated King James.
In all, LeBron has faced Houston eight times in his career. On three different occasions his Win Score was zero or in the negative range. Another three times his Win Score per minute (WSMIN) was below average. So does Houston have a magical LeBron defense? If they do, it vanished two of the last three times they played the Cavs. In these games, LeBron was well above average.
The Rockets, though, are not the issue at the moment. What about the Spurs? Again, he has faced this team eight times in the regular season. Four times he was above average (and of course, four times he was not). His career WSMIN against the Spurs is 0.220, which is above the average mark (0.152) for a small forward. To put that in perspective, LeBron has a career WSMIN against all teams of 0.225. In sum, it doesn’t appear that the Spurs have some secret method to stop LeBron. He has historically played as well against the Spurs as he has played against other NBA teams.
Given this history, one might expect LeBron to bounce back in Game Two of the NBA Finals. How far can he bounce back? Can we expect a performance like Game Five in the Eastern Conference Finals?
In that game LeBron posted a 19.0 Win Score. His PAWSmin (Position Adjusted Win Score per minute) was 0.228, which is very good (Jordan’s career PAWSmin was 0.153, for example). Surprisingly, though, this was not LeBron’s best PAWSmin in the playoffs. In Game Three of the Eastern Conference Finals, coming off the only below average game he had played thus far in the 2007 post-season, LeBron posted a PAWSmin of 0.239. Because he played fewer minutes than what he played in Game Five, though, his Win Score was only 18.0.
When we look at LeBron’s regular season career, we see that he has had a Win Score of 18 or higher in 31 different contests. Given 316 regular season games, he does this about 10% of the time. One should note that 24 of these performances occurred during the 2004-05 and 2005-06 season. In 2006-07 he only equaled or surpassed 18 on four different occasions.
The team LeBron most often victimizes is the Portland Trail Blazers. This is a Western Conference team, so he has only played Portland eight times. In four of these eight contests, though, King James has surpassed the 18.0 mark.
There is good news for Portland. In their most recent encounter in January, LeBron finished in the negative range. So even Portland, who historically has played LeBron badly, managed to “force” King James into a really bad game. This suggests that James can play badly against anyone.
And of course, he can play extremely well against anyone as well. The Pistons have faced LeBron 29 times in the regular and post-season. Fourteen times LeBron has been below average. Unfortunately for Detroit, the last four times he was well above average. Which is one reason Detroit is not in the NBA Finals this year. The Spurs certainly hope they do not end up with a similar experience.
One last note…if you like, dislike, or hate the new look of the WoW Journal, let me know. The new look was introduced this morning and I am still deciding myself if I like it or not. As always, suggestions are welcome.
– DJ
Wages of Wins Journal 
Okapi
June 9, 2007
Are there any studies that check for statistical evidence of a non-random disperson of performance for a player across opponents? Looking at the variability of performance for a player across a single team. And comparing iwth the variability of performance across a sequence of that many games against varying opponents.
dberri
June 9, 2007
Okapi,
In the case of LeBron (and probably any player), that would be difficult. He has only played Western Conference teams 8 times in his career. Against the Pistons he has played 29 times, but that includes both the regular season and post-season.
As LeBron’s career advances he totals against the same team will increase. But can we really compare what LeBron did against the Blazers four years ago? It was the same “team”, but hardly the same players. So even though I did this, I am not sure such analysis has any validity.
Jason
June 10, 2007
I think that separating out how a player does against any particular team from the normal stochastic variance in performance would be difficult and I’d be surprised if there were regularly statistically significant differences when compared to a player’s entire season and/or career. It may be that some players have a particular team’s number, but at something like p=0.05, actually demonstrating that it’s not just chance that they’ve had their better games when said opponent is in town will be difficult. Doesn’t mean it’s not so, just that it isn’t necessarily so.
Andrew
June 10, 2007
I like the new look simply because reducing the amount of white on screen makes the blog more readable.
Will
June 11, 2007
With all due respect, I dislike the new look of WoW Journal. I subscribe to your blog via a RSS Reader, and I now can only see a few sentences in the Reader – I have to open a new window to read the actual article. This slows me down (but I suppose it increases hits for your website). Anyway, I read your blog every single day, and will continue to regardless, but here’s a vote for returning to the old format.
dberri
June 11, 2007
Will,
I think I fixed the RSS problem. Let me know if you are now able to see the full text.