Browsing All Posts published on »July, 2007«

Can Adam Morrison Be Saved?

July 31, 2007 by


On Sunday I noted that there was a 0.69 correlation between a rookie’s productivity and that player’s per-minute productivity the rest of his career. This was an exceedingly crude study. The only explanatory variable was rookie performance. Players who played more than 10 years were lumped in with players who played only two. In sum, […]

Point Shaving in the NBA

July 30, 2007 by


There are two big stories today. The first is the proposed Kevin Garnett deal, which appears to make the Celtics into a title contender in 2008 (but perhaps in trouble in a few years) and the Timberwolves into a lottery team (which they already were). Although this is a great story, it’s not the subject […]

When Will We Know About Greg Oden?

July 29, 2007 by


On Friday I compared the performance of the top pick in the NBA draft to the performance of the most productive player selected in each draft since 1991. Or as I put it – I compared The Top Pick vs. The Top Pick. In this post was the following table, which detailed the career performance […]

More from Justin Wolfers – including an intuitive look at Win Score

July 28, 2007 by


The work of Justin Wolfers has been a frequent topic in this forum. Stacey offered two posts examining Wolfers study of point shaving in NCAA men’s basketball. Point Shaving in NCAA Basketball Point Shaving Briefly Revisited And I offered four posts examining the Joe Price–Justin Wolfers study of implicit bias in the NBA. Implicit Bias […]

The Top Pick vs. The Top Pick

July 27, 2007 by


Today I am going to briefly address two questions. 1. How often is the number one pick in the draft the most productive NBA player? 2. Who is the most productive NBA player from each draft class (since 1991)? To answer the first question we first need to consider the career productivity of each player […]

The Undrafted in the NBA

July 26, 2007 by


From 1991 to 2006, there were 1,098 players who made their debut in the NBA (according to data at By my count, 327 of these players were never drafted. This works out to an average of about 20 such players each year. Just last year, 27 players (again by my count) debuted in the […]

How The Sports Media Evaluates NBA Talent

July 25, 2007 by


There is much debate about how to measure the productivity of an NBA player. There is NBA Efficiency, the Player Efficiency Rating, Win Score, Wins Produced, Plus-Minus, Adjusted Plus-Minus, and many more. One might wonder (at least I do) with all these choices, how do the sports media evaluate talent? Consider voting for the Sixth […]

Avoiding Work on Tuesday

July 24, 2007 by


My general rule is that I post at most once a day. Although I am tempted to do more than this, my job as a professor (for which I am paid by the state of California) is about teaching and research. For nine months of the year I teach and in the summer I focus […]

Looking Back At the 1991 Draft

July 24, 2007 by


This summer I have been looking back at the outcome of past NBA drafts. Today I want to discuss the draft from 1991 (you can look at the NBA Draft page for other drafts I have examined). The Importance of Winning We can talk about Wins Produced, Player Efficiency Rating, NBA Efficiency, Plus-Minus, or any […]

Some Needed Perspective on the NBA Referee Scandal

July 22, 2007 by


This was posted originally at The Sports Economist On Friday we learned that NBA referee Tim Donaghy is under investigation by the FBI for betting on NBA games. Here is how this story has been described by various members of the media. Adrian Wojnarowski, Yahoo! Sports The nightmare has forever lurked in the reaches of […]