Eight rebounds. That’s it. Kevin Durant played 137 minutes of summer league basketball and all he could get were eight rebounds. At the Summer League games 94 players logged at least 100 minutes. Durant was out-rebounded by all of these players except Warriors guard Marco Belinelli.
Let’s put that production in some perspective. From 1993-94 to 2006-07 there were 5,328 players who played at least 137 minutes in an NBA regular season. Of these, all but 53 managed to rebound at a rate better than 8 boards per 137 minutes. And none of these players were 6’9” tall.
Okay, let me put that stat this way. Starting with the 1993-94 season, 99% of all NBA players were able to capture more rebounds per 137 minutes than eight. Ninety-Nine Percent.
When we turn to shooting efficiency we see a similar story. Durant took 78 field goal attempts in four games. From these shots he scored 57 points, which results in a points-per-shot rate of 0.731. Of the 94 players who played 100 minutes in the Summer League, all but 10 managed to shoot better than this. When we look at the 5,324 players who have logged at least 137 minutes in the NBA since 1993-94, we see that all but 212 – or all but 96% — shot better than 0.731.
In Durant’s last game he played 38 minutes and captured three rebounds, which is again well below average. His points-per-shot was 0.89, which is well below the NBA average of 0.97. Despite this ineptitude, this is how his performance was described by the Associated Press.
Kevin Durant had the stage to himself. The second overall pick did not disappoint.
If such a performance doesn’t disappoint, exactly what would he have to do to not meet expectations? This is a 6’9” forward who is supposed to be a major star in the NBA. But he couldn’t score efficiently and he couldn’t rebound.
And, as noted, this game was not an aberration. Across four games Durant had a Win Score 0f -3.0. Yes, his Win Score was in the negative range in the Summer League. Now you can call Durant a power forward, small forward, shooting guard, or point guard. But a negative Win Score is below average not matter what you call him.
Do these four games mean anything at all? I would think not. Durant’s college numbers suggest he should be a very good professional. And I think the college numbers should trump four summer league games.
Whether the summer league games matter or not is beside the point I am making. It’s the perception of Durant’s performance that I am focusing upon.
The description of Durant’s performance focused on the moves he made on the court. But basketball is not figure skating. The scoreboard doesn’t care about the moves you make on the court. It only cares about your numbers. And Durant’s numbers were very bad in Las Vegas.
So if you are a Sonics fan, or just a fan of Durant, hopefully you were disappointed to see Durant average only two more rebounds per game than you did. Hopefully you expect the Sonics brain trust to make a note: “Must tell Durant that rebounding is part of his job description. Oh, and we have to tell him that we like it when the shots he takes go in.”
If Durant doesn’t get that message, you can expect the results the Sonics offered in Vegas to continue in 2007-08. Behind the “non-disappointing” Durant, Seattle managed to lose every game it played in Vegas. And what makes this even more “disappointing” for Seattle fans is that the Sonics were the only team playing two of its starters. Yes, with two starters in the line-up, Seattle still couldn’t win any games in Vegas. When you look at this way, it’s all just a bit disappointing.
– DJ
Wages of Wins Journal 
Matthew
July 17, 2007
Craig Smith also rebounded poorly, but we know from last season that he’s a adequate rebounder. I think the pickup game atmosphere means that players with guaranteed contracts don’t go for the hustle stats all that often. The only thing I worry about in summer league is scoring efficiency.
JChan
July 17, 2007
But DJ, Durant scored 32 and 28 points in his last two games! Anyone that scores that many points is a great player, didn’t you know that?
My favorite part is that Jeff Green played fantastic that last game, with a 17.5 Win Score, but just garnered a mention as “he also scored points, along with Durant”.
Yeah, the Sonics are probably going to be terrible this year, but it should be fun to watch these guys grow and become better.
Mr. Parker
July 18, 2007
Honestly,
Why even share info like this with other
people? I have a grand time laughing at
people when they are so shocked that I think
25% of the NBA is a better player than
Carmelo.
Instead of explaining I just say you’ll see.
Then when they lose to San Antonio in the first
round they say…its because Denver bigs
suck. Really? Marcus Camby sucks? Yes he’s
awful no moves!!!
Yet these same people discount the ability
of Kevin “Garnot”(as Skip Bayless calls him)
by saying he’s never won a championship.
Really? Yeah he should make his teammates
better!!!
Which is the credit that is always
given to Jordan for the bulls championship
runs. Which is funny because what actually
happened is his teammates got better and
removed some of the workload from Jordan.
My point is Durant is not Jordan or Garnett
and people are dumb. Durant in 3 years if he
works as hard as one should expect should be
a pretty good NBA player somewhere around
Gilbert Arenas 06-07. He needs to greatly
improve his passing(which is the hardest aspect
of a player’s game to teach or develop) if he
wants to be on the level of Grant Hill(the
mid 90s version) or
Scottie pippen as great NBA SFs.
His inability to create for anyone but himself
showed in the NCAA tournament game. Down big
in the first half because DJ Augustine
was locked up big time by Nick Young and Gabe
Pruitt a player of Durant’s supposed
ability should have been able to take over
the point guard duties. Instead he just watched
Augustine get the business and Texas lost
by 30.
My system doesn’t like him nearly as much
winscore does, I have him ranked 7th in future
production and further below that in
rookie year production.
Mr. Parker
July 18, 2007
P.s-
You could see this type of ability in
Duncan though I can’t get a hold of the
right numbers to grade him by my
college projection system.
Back when Duncan was at Wake Forest no one
could press Wake Forest because their press
break was a very simple yet effective play.
They set Duncan up around mid court and
in bounded the ball to him. Thats it. Afterward
Tim would always turn around and find a team
mate inevitably left open because the other
team’s players are all out of position.
Great player’s should be equalizer’s. Texas
had two other highly touted Freshman on their
squad yet got blown out in the round of 32.
This was the moment that cemented my opinion
on Durant. Alot of Durant’s success can be
attributed to the sucktitude of the Big 12
this year. They had exaclty two first round
picks in this year’s draft. By contrast
USC had two on its team and Duran’t weaknesses
were exposed.
Mr. Parker
July 18, 2007
P.S.S-
Mr. Berri,
I think a great project for you next year
would be projecting the NCAA tournament.
You could use a 6 game outlook instead of
82 game outlook. Of course the stat would
be wp40 instead of wp48 but it would be
interesting to see the results.
MT
July 18, 2007
Witty post, DB, but these games have not proven to be probative of anything long term.
dberri
July 18, 2007
MT,
As I noted, I don’t think these games mean anything. What I was addressing was the perception of Durant’s performance. He played about as bad as a player can play. 99% of all NBA players can rebound better than this. 96% of all NBA players can shoot better than this. Yet people thought his performance did not disappoint.
Whether or not these games predict anything is not relevant to the story being told. What matters is how scoring totals alone can blind people to what was truly a disappointing performance.
kjb
July 18, 2007
I’m having much the same conversation with Wizards fans about Nick Young at the moment. Some fans are excited about Young’s scoring, athleticism and his ability to “create his own shot,” and I’m looking at the fact that Young shot poorly and did virtually nothing else when he wasn’t scoring — few rebounds, assists, or steals. He did turn the ball over and do some fouling, though. His Win Score for the 5 games was -13, which was among the worst for all of summer league.
dberri
July 18, 2007
kjb,
Interesting comment on Nick Young. Of the rookies who played at least 100 minutes in the Summer League, only Yi Jianlian offered less. Young did lead the Wizards in points scored. But he shot inefficiently, couldn’t rebound, and turned the ball over at an above average rate. Yet his scoring totals are all many people can see. I wonder how different the conversation is internally for the Wizards. Do the coaches tell Young that he basically failed in the Vegas? Or do they tell him he played pretty well but just has a few things to work on?
kjb
July 24, 2007
dberri: I’m not an insider with the Wiz, but I do have my sources. My understanding is that the coaches generally think that Young was pretty good overall, but with stuff to work on. They see a guy who can run fast, leap well, “create shots,” and handle the ball competently (by that, they mean dribbling the ball).
My prediction is that while Dominic McGuire was the more impressive of the two players in summer league, it’ll be Young who gets more playing time. One reason I say this is a quickie study I did after the season of how different stat categories relate to playing time.
Nothing really rose to the level of statistical significance (which I didn’t expect). But, the results still provided an interesting look at what coaches value. For the Wizards, two categories stood out — per minute scoring (.83 correlation) and per minute steals (.77). They had some of the league’s strongest negative correlations between big man stats (per minute rebounding and shots blocked) and playing time.
Different teams could be viewed as valuing different things. Orlando valued rebounding. Denver game playing time to guys who got assists and turned the ball over. Nobody valued blocked shots much. Leaguewide, the strongest correlation between a stat and playing time is scoring. The only thing that rivals scoring is fouls — and that’s a negative relationship (the tendency is for guys who foul more per minute to get fewer minutes per game).
dberri
July 24, 2007
kjb,
Great research!! I have also found that scoring is the primary determinant of playing time. Not much of a surprise, but nice to see that decision is consistent with all the other decisions.