On Monday, Henry Abbott at TrueHoop discussed the rivalry between Gilbert Arenas and Richard Jefferson. This discussion linked to Agent Zero’s blog at NBA.com. In a discussion of Jason Gardner’s wedding, attended by both Arenas and Jefferson, Arenas offered the following observation:
It really was a great time. Me and Richard, for some reason, always end up having a bragging session when we’re around each other and try to out-do one another. For some reason, he thinks he’s better than me. He can’t fathom that he’s only the third best player from Arizona, and I’m No. 1. He just hates that I’m No. 1. He hates to see me on my own video game, he hates that I’m a three-time All-Star, he hates the fact that he only got a bronze medal … all of that. He is bitter about it.
This quote raises a couple of questions:
1. Who, besides Arenas, does Agent Zero think is a better NBA player than Richard Jefferson?
2. And, perhaps the bigger questions, is it true that Arenas is the best player from Arizona?
You can actually answer both questions at the same time. And it all starts at Basketball-Reference.com. One of the many neat features at Basketball-Reference.com is the ability to look at all the players who have ever played in the NBA from each college or university. According to Basketball-Reference.com there have been 35 players who have played in the NBA after attending Arizona. Of these, I am going to focus on the 24 players who logged at least 1,000 minutes in the Association.
The Wins Produced Story
Let’s start our examination by looking at how many wins each player produced. The top player is Jason Terry, who has thus far produced 58.4 wins. He’s followed closely by Damon Stoudamire (56.9 wins) and Mike Bibby (55.9 wins). Not coincidently, these Arizona players also rank in the top four in career minutes played.
Given differences in playing time, let’s focus on Wins Produced per 82 games (a stat I just made up). By this metric, the top Arizona grad is (drum roll please)….. Andre Iguodala. As Table One indicates, Iguodala is the only Arizona alumni to post a career WP48 (Wins Produced per 48 minutes) in excess of 0.200. Again, average is 0.100, so Iguodola’s average mark is twice the NBA average.
Table One: Ranking Arizona Alumni by Wins Produced
Per 82 games, Iguodala produces 13.4 wins, the only Arizona alumni to average in double figures. Although he has only played three seasons, he has led the 76ers in Wins Produced every year he has played.
Okay, Iguodala is good. What about Arenas and Jefferson? In terms of both WP48 and Wins Produced per 82 games, Jefferson is a bit better. This is not the story you would tell if you focused on the past three seasons. Over the past three seasons, Arenas has been more productive than Jefferson (although not more productive than Iguodala). When you focus on career performance, though, Arenas is only the third most productive Arizona product.
Searching for Player Number Two
Arenas not only claimed he was better than Jefferson, but that his former teammate was also ranked behind another Arizona graduate. Who exactly was he talking about?
When I think about perceptions of performance my thoughts turn to metrics like NBA Efficiency. This metric over-values scoring and thus is consistent with how performance tends to be perceived. When we look at the Arizona grads via NBA Efficiency – and again I am going to focus on the measure per 82 games played – we see that Arenas is indeed the top Arizona graduate.
Table Two: Ranking Arizona Alumni by NBA Efficiency
But by this measure, Bibby and Iguodala rank ahead of Jefferson. Arenas clearly said Jefferson was the third best player, so NBA Efficiency can’t be exactly what he had in mind.
So I decided to make this even simpler and just focus on scoring. The following table ranks all Arizona alumni in terms of points scored per game.
Table Three: Ranking Arizona Alumni by Points Scored per game
Now we see a ranking consistent with what Arenas claimed. When we focus solely on points per game, Arenas is the top Arizona graduate. And Jefferson is ranked third behind Mike Bibby.
Is Bibby the mystery player? Does Arenas only think of scoring when he evaluates himself and his peers? Did I take an Arenas post too seriously? Are you taking this post too seriously? Is this sounding like the end of an episode of Soap? If so, I would note that none of these questions will be answered in our next episode.
– DJ
Our research on the NBA was summarized HERE.
Wins Produced and Win Score are Discussed in the Following Posts
Simple Models of Player Performance
What Wins Produced Says and What It Does Not Say
Wages of Wins Journal 
mrparker
August 23, 2007
Agent Zero,
The Wizards are about to finish in 8th place
unless you change the way you play bball.
What are you going to do about that?
Chirstopher
August 23, 2007
DB, can you take this one step further and look at their college careers to see how college stats predict NBA stats using your metric? That’d be neat to see.
JChan
August 23, 2007
Great post, I was wondering who he was talking about as well. Your numbers are sound, but I think Arenas may have been thinking of Jason Terry, since (I think) Terry was still at Arizona when Arenas got there, and Bibby was already in the pros. So Arenas probably knows and likes Jason Terry better.
Either way it’s funny that Iguodala will probably end up being better than all of them.
JChan
August 23, 2007
P.S. I bet Henry links to this one.
drew
August 23, 2007
Great work. I’ve actually wondered who was the best UA alum for some time. By the way, the JET was not at UA while Arenas was. He finished in ’98. Arenas was there only ’00 and ’01.
JChan
August 23, 2007
Yeah, you’re right, they just missed each other. I knew I should have looked it up before commenting. Oh well. Let’s see…maybe he likes Terry better because he knew he was going to Arizona the year before and watched Terry in all the games…yeah I’m really stretching now.
Benjamin
August 23, 2007
Gilbert was actually refering to Miles Simon or Micheal Dickerson lol
j
August 23, 2007
Arenas is number 1, Kerr is number 2
Luke
August 23, 2007
Whatever happened to the great Sean Elliot that put Arizona on the map? Of the guys you named, he has more championships than all of them combined
diddy
August 23, 2007
ok all good players. What about miles simon from the national championship season?
D shan
August 23, 2007
arenas would know who ranks 1st and who ranks
after him when RJ and all those other guys end u
up gettin rings and him alone stand up there
with his hands free…saying habachi or w.e..
he is just zero. he’ll deserve this for his big
mouth.
Pete
August 23, 2007
Excellent post. Thank you.
Marty
August 23, 2007
Just curious, but is there some reason you can’t use a normal word such as “measurement” or “statistic” instead of torturing the word “metric” to mean something it actually doesn’t (despite the sudden prevalence of that word being employed in the same it is by you)?
george
August 23, 2007
what about player of the year and NBA champion Sean Elliott? HELLO!!!
mgarb3489
August 23, 2007
Where does Sean Elliot rank in this? I’m sure that when pressed with a point-blank question as to who Agent Zero’s #2 may be, many would have thought Mr. Extra Kidney was that guy, yet he never made his way into your conversation. Why not, and if not, where does he fit in your “stat” regime?
dberri
August 23, 2007
To all the people asking about Sean Elliott….there are three tables in the post ranking the Arizona players in terms of Wins Produced, NBA Efficiency, and Points Scored. Elliott is not in the top five by any metric (or measure or statistic, take your pick).
kevin
August 23, 2007
Holy cow y’all have a lot of time on your hands. Please tell me why you care! OK, don’t really tell me, but please ask yourself why you care… for the sake of humanity.
Idan Solon
August 23, 2007
Arenas’ comment is present tense, so instead of comparing the players over their entire career, or the past three years, you should also have a statistic comparing them over just the previous year. Recall that Arenas has improved dramatically since his entry into the NBA in 2001, as well as in the past three years.
peepo
August 23, 2007
yes, seriously now, gilbert arenas is just ehnjoying his time in the nba, so why make a big deal out of everything he says? im from the philippines and im an avid nba fan. i just think that maybe people are taking this guy too seriously when in fact hes not being serious at all about a lot of his blogs and comments. relax and enjoy agent zero while he still has something entertaining to showcase for the world to see.
The Kai
August 23, 2007
How are Kerr and Sean Elliot not mentioned? We need to check the stats on those guys and compare them.
celtics suck and kg wont make a difference
August 23, 2007
RJ is #2. All people think about is scoring and RJ is in the scoring shadow of Vince Carter. Add up the total wins of the sixers and kings led by andre and bibby and they don’t come close to the amount of nba wins that RJ has had.
16 year old knows his cats
August 23, 2007
Alright Kerr and Elliot definitly need to be
in top 5 but the truth is Gilbert didn’t win a
Championship like Miles and Bibby. Yes Gilbert
is good now but is more famous now than in
college(he got picked in 2nd round). Terry
again good now but did you know he was AZ 6th
man. I don’t even know if you can make a top 5
there has been so many athletes that came
through UofA. Bear Down!
Stoltz
August 23, 2007
Sean Elliott is one of the best players from the U of A.
LLOYD
August 23, 2007
Hello, I would like to give u my top 5 players from Arizona, I think Agent Zero is number 1 and 2 is Mike Bibby and 3 is Iguodala and 4 is Jason Terry and last but not least is Richard Jefferson.
Bavand
August 23, 2007
Arenas is probably the most overall skilled player.
Bibby was better then. Terry is better now (and remember, Terry was a national player of the year in college).
Jefferson and Iguodala probably go 3-4.
And lets not forget Jud Buchler.
Jay
August 24, 2007
As an Arizona Alumn, and diehard NBA fan who follows the progress of AZ players careers, I enjoyed that. Thanks.
jerry
August 24, 2007
jason terry was not college player of the year u idiot. i think bibby and terry are 2 and 3. point guards that can drill the three are very valuable. does anybody remember what a killer bibby was when they were challenging the lakers years back. laker fanatic
jahahaha
August 24, 2007
I’m thinking Steve Kerr or Sean Elliott might have snuck into that 2nd spot. Both were solid players with at least 1 NBA championship under his belt.
Steve Kerr is the top 3-point shooter in NBA history (thanks to Wikipedia for the confirmation) and has 5 Title Rings. That’s a solid argument in his favor.
JAY
August 24, 2007
RICHARD JEFFERSON HAS BEEN TO THE NBA FINALS TWICE!!!!
NOT AGENT ZERO!!
AGENT ZERO DOESNT HAVE AS MANY WINS AS RICHARD JEFFERSON
NK
August 24, 2007
uhh… I think he was simply referring to who’s better, period. I doubt anyone who pays attention to the actual game and not on stats will argue that Arenas is the best player out of Arizona. If he played for sixers and Iguodala played on a playoff team, that’d be another way to say Arenas scores 40 a game so he must be the best player in the nba. I don’t know who he meant by being #2 out of Arizona but I’m pretty sure no one cares about WP48. If you could trade Jefferson for Arenas who wouldn’t?
Pete
August 24, 2007
This is statistics run amok. Basketball is a fundamentally offensive game so scoring does matter. Gilbert Arenas is a much better player then Jefferson as is Iggy.
Things like wins produced are just garbage statistics that try to factor in to many variables unsuccesfully.
Any statistic that leaves two time MVP third on his own team in an MVP year (Steve Nash) should just be chucked into the garbage. Stop peddling it.
SJH
August 24, 2007
There is a point at which a truly statistical analysis departs a bit from reality and I believe you´ve found it. Ask yourself this: If Arenas didn´t play for the Wiz, would they make the playoffs? Obviously not (see end of last season). None of the other guys compare in that category although I´m willing to give Iggy some time since he had the whole AI problem.
Bottom line: Any argument that Bibby, JT, or Jefferson is better than Agent Zero is mental masturbation far removed from what´s happening on the hardwood.
Jay
August 24, 2007
The fact that Sean Elliot is not in an argument with Jason Terry and Richard Jefferson discredits this post.
He was an all-star, a champion and played a much better all-around game than Terry. The fact that he is no at least in the argument says much about the validity of these formulas.
jc
August 24, 2007
I loved this post. I had been pondering the same thing, and it’s great to know you share in my (in)sanity. I assumed it was Bibby, but friends I asked spat out names like Jason Terry, which I laughed at.
bcrawfo
August 24, 2007
the writer of this article looked way too deep into what Arenas was saying…what does this Wins Produced Crap mean? Its worthless to any real basketball/NBA fan and only relevant to statistic geeks. Arenas is one of the best players in the league, AI is a really good player as is Jefferson and several other Wildcat Alums…leave it at that b/c this all of this statistical garbage proves nothing.
MT
August 24, 2007
Well, Agent Zero may not be the best alumnus but he does seem to be the best draw for traffic to the site.
omar v
August 24, 2007
What about STEVE KERR and SEAN ELLIOT (both withh championship rings)…. Arenas its really good ina amediocre mid rank team, Jefferson play along with 2 superstars (Kidd and Carter)… who else plays with wizards? cum´on… Arenas #1????
Thinking Human Being
August 24, 2007
wow. you are absolutely idiotic. yes, of course, andre iguodala is better than gilbert arenas. clearly, this must be true. oh, feeble minds who think without using numbers! how boxed and caged you are!
look man. andre iguodala is not and will not ever be in the same category of player as gilbert arenas. i don’t care if the frigging theory of relativity confirms it. it isn’t true.
big O
August 24, 2007
who caresssssssssss!
Surfer Joe
August 24, 2007
Steve Kerr is better than both of them. Look at his rings.
Ted
August 24, 2007
Thanks for elucidating this, Josh. I’m glad I somehow managed to make it all the way to the end of these posts..
big O
August 24, 2007
First of all, Areanas never took no team to the championship………thats strike one….second of all….this the same person that spoke about MIAMI HEAT chances…and then the MIAMI HEAT won a championship…….. so what the hell do he know! and if Areanas was so great how come he dont dawn a OLYMPIC jersey like your boy jefferson…..so Arenas shut your traP SHOOT SOME MORE THREE POINTERS…AND MAKE THAT MONEY!
Ted
August 24, 2007
I kid of course.., very nice work.
big O
August 24, 2007
a COUPLE OF GAME WINNERS DONT MAKE YOU GREAT……GO TO THE BIG DANCE……….AS A MATTER OF FACT….CHECK KOBE RESUME…..THEN YOU GET INSPIRED TO DO THE SAME!
big O
August 24, 2007
………WHATEVER…….
big O
August 24, 2007
FIRST OF ALL, LET ME STRIP THAT B.S. TITLE ANGENT ZERO………….THATS B.S. FOR REAL..SECOND OF ALL….HE’S A GOOD ROLE PLAYER…WE ALL SEEN HIM CHOKE THE LAST FEW YEARS IN THE PLAYOFFS….MISSING FREE THROWS…SOME PEOPLE FORGET WHOS THE BETTER PRO..OR BETTER PRODUCT WHEN THEY SPENT THEIR TIME AT ARIZONA….SOME OF YALL FORGET THE THE TANDEM OF DAMON STOUDEMIRE AND KHALID REAVES…..HOW ABOUT JASON TERRY….SEAN ELLIOT..STEVE KERR….THE LIST GOES ON..AND HE THINKS HE’S #1…..ANDRE 2000….HOW ABOUT….
NK
August 24, 2007
big O’s got a vendetta or something against Arenas. Haha. Look dude, no one’s saying the other cats aren’t very good players. If you want to compare people with rings, that means the players that played as 8th or 9th players on the boston celtics teams that won 11 championships are better than the rest of the nba since they got more rings.
Just take it as is, Gil is pretty darn good. Good enough to take a crummy Wizards team to the playoffs. Jefferson is playing third fiddle to Kidd and Vince and if it wasn’t for Kidd, Nets probably won’t even have made it to all these playoffs these past years. Arenas is a top 10 talent right now in the nba. Jefferson is not. Simple as that.
steele
August 24, 2007
anthony cook,best u of a defender
Miles
August 24, 2007
Memorial day miricle! Championships! Sean Elliot and Steve Kerr are one/two ahead of Agent “How many rings do I have?” ZERO!!!!
Ap
August 24, 2007
Wow, I guess its a good thing for you, Dave, when more people come to your site, but gee whillickers does the quality of the discourse plummett. You provide links to explaining your Win Score and Win Produced formulas and hey ask what it is.
Good post though, Iguadola won’t be underrated after next year, I don’t think.
dberri
August 24, 2007
Ap,
I actually had to do something I had not done in a long while. Delete a comment that wasn’t spam. Yes, the quantity of comments has risen today. But quality didn’t quite keep pace. Oh well.
2kul
August 24, 2007
bibby is just the best..so get over it…he rocked UA bak in the day, he rocked the leauge, and hes still the joint player…just cuz he got injured bad and had a bad season doesnt mean he suks…if u think that ur an idiot
Carlos
August 24, 2007
We ALL know that Gilbert Arenas is the BEST player to come out of the University of Arizona. That’s a no-brainer. As far as Richard Jefferson, he MIGHT not even be the 3rd best player to come out of UA. Mike Bibby has had a MUCH better (statistically) career than RJ. His winning percentage is probably higher than that of RJ. Then you also have a promising star in A.I. (not the answer) and also, you can’t forget Jason Terry. Not to mention, that we ALL know Richard Jefferson ONLY drives to his RIGHT and finishes with his RIGHT. Why was EVERYBODY shocked when he had the winning bucket vs Toronto in Game 6 of last year’s playoffs? Not because Vince Carter DIDN’T get the ball, bt because RJ drove to his LEFT and finished with his LEFT. How can you be ranked the 3rd best player out of UA if you can’t go to ur left?? Think about it.
Carlos
August 24, 2007
We ALL know that Gilbert Arenas is the BEST player to come out of the University of Arizona. That’s a no-brainer. As far as Richard Jefferson, he MIGHT not even be the 3rd best player to come out of UA. Mike Bibby has had a MUCH better (statistically) career than RJ. His winning percentage is probably higher than that of RJ. Then you also have a promising star in A.I. (not the answer) and also, you can’t forget Jason Terry. Not to mention, that we ALL know Richard Jefferson ONLY drives to his RIGHT and finishes with his RIGHT. Why was EVERYBODY shocked when he had the winning bucket vs Toronto in Game 6 of last year’s playoffs? Not because Vince Carter DIDN’T get the ball, but because RJ drove to his LEFT and finished with his LEFT. How can you be ranked the 3rd best player out of UA if you can’t go to ur left?? Think about it.
ambiv
August 27, 2007
Very interesting analysis. To all fans of Sean Elliot and Steve Kerr, I think they both deserve to rank higher, and here’s why. Because these stats were calculated based on their whole career, retired players, who most likely include years of playing past their prime and/or dealing with injuries (esp in Elliot’s case), are disadvantaged. I wonder how the picture might change if we only consider the players’ best 1/3/5 career years? In that case, Elliot would most certainly have to be considered at least on par with Jefferson/Terry/Bibby, all while playing in the shadow of the great David Robinson. Plus the two all-star appearances, that’s more than those 3 combined.
In fact, going back to the original question of “who’s #2”, if you just rank them by their all-star appearances, that should put Arenas at #1(3 times), Sean Elliot at #2(2 times), and 0 for everyone else (IIRC), putting Jefferson potentially at the #3 spot.
Justin
August 28, 2007
“By this metric, the top Arizona grad is (drum roll please)….. Andre Iguodala.”
As an Arizona alumnus myself, I should point out that neither Igoudala (2 years), Arenas (2), Jefferson (3) nor Bibby (2) actually graduated. Just saying.
dberri
August 28, 2007
Justin,
Excellent point. If you don’t graduate are you still an alumni? And if not, what do we call these players? People who passed through Arizona?
Greg Bigfella Cannon
September 7, 2007
Gilbert Arenas is clearly the best now,
however I’m what you would call a good player in the streets since I didn’t make the league, I know
who got game and who don’t and Andre Iguodala is
the clear and apparent second best player from Arizona followed closely by Jason Terry.
Greg Bigfella Cannon
September 7, 2007
IGUODALA AND ARENAS WOW!!
TERRY AND BIBBY GOOD!
KERR AND ELLIOTT OPPORTUNISTS FOR CHIPS!
STOP PLAYING OUT THERE WITH ALL THE BULL CRAP!!
Arena's a punk bitch
March 8, 2008
I think that college and NBA are totally different. Duke always has a lot of NCAA talent, but next to nothing to NBA talent. Bibby and Salim Stoudamire Rocked in college…..Bibby led his team and Stoudamire almost led his (Illinois) with Frye. NBA talent is def. Iguodala. Arenas is just like Iverson…….40+ shots a game and no D & no ring! If you shoot an dplay that much you need stats across the board like Iguodala and Kobe (check all the greats) Unless you shoot 60%…..you need more stats. Plus Jefferson plays for the nets…..he might as well be a globetrotter….they all get good numbers. Jordan made the bulls great, Arenas make the wiz OK. When Arena leads the Wiz to a ring, then argue that case (and he might, but doubtful). Most of these players have about the same shooting stats…..compare the other stats. if A GREAT PLAYER WILL LEAD HIS TEAM TO A TITLE!
Nice love talking UA basketball……there can be a case for every player, it’s the U, thats what we do!
Tyson
July 2, 2008
SJH: I guess Washington proved you wrong. Arenas played 13 games, and Washington improved by two wins.