A few weeks ago I examined the impact Larry Bird had on the Boston Celtics in 1979. In 1978-79 the Celtics won 29 games. The following season the Celtics won 61 games. Much of this improvement, although certainly not all, could be linked to the outstanding rookie performance of Larry Bird. As Table One indicates, the Celtics improvement in the late 1970s marks the fourth biggest one-year leap by a franchise since 1973-74.
Table One: The Most Improved Teams since 1973-74
Typically these leaps are associated with a specific player being added to the roster. For example, the Spurs have made the two biggest leaps. In 1989-90 the team added David Robinson and improved by 35 wins. In 1997-98 the Spurs added Tim Duncan (and a healthy David Robinson) and improved by 36 wins. And certainly the Celtics leap fits this pattern. What of the other teams on the list?
Did Carmelo Resurrect the Nuggets?
The Denver Nuggets, after winning only 17 games in 2002-03, took Carmelo Anthony with the third choice in the 2003 NBA Draft. With Carmelo added to the roster, the team improved 26 games in the standings. Anthony also led the Nuggets with 21.0 points scored per game. So was this leap all about Melo?
When we look at Anthony’s productivity – both during his rookie season and in the next three seasons – it is hard to see how Carmelo could have been the one player who resurrected the Nuggets.
Table Two: The Career Performance of Carmelo Anthony
Table Two compares Anthony to the average NBA small forward. When we look at Carmelo’s rookie season we see a player that was below average in terms of shooting efficiency, steals, blocked shots, assists, and turnovers. Yes, Anthony could score. But this was primarily because he took a large number of shots, not because he was particularly good at getting shots from the field to go in the basket.
Now he was not bad at everything. Anthony was a slightly above average free throw shooter and rebounder. But these small advantages were not enough to offset his many negatives, and consequently his WP48 (Wins Produced per 48 minutes) was only 0.032. Such a mark is well below the average WP48 of 0.100.
Anthony’s second season saw a very similar pattern. In his last two seasons, though, his shooting efficiency has surpassed the average mark. His ability to grab rebounds, though, is now below average. Consequently, given his disadvantages with respect to turnovers, steals, and blocked shots, he has yet to produce at an above average level in his career.
If Not Carmelo, Who Was Responsible?
Okay, Anthony has not been a great player in his NBA career (although he is a great international player, a point I will make in a near future post). So if Anthony did not spark Denver’s improvement, exactly who was responsible?
To answer this question we need to look at who was on the roster of this team in both 2002-03 and 2003-04.
Table Three: The Denver Nuggets in 2003-04 and 2002-03
The team in 2002-03 was led by Donnell Harvey (hard to believe, isn’t it?), who produced 5.1 wins in 1,613 minutes. Obviously if your most productive player only produces 5.1 victories (and is Donnell Harvey), your team is not going to win many contests.
The next season the Nuggets were led by two players who posted double digit Wins Produced totals. Surprisingly (well, if you read the previous section, maybe not surprisingly), neither player was named Anthony (or Carmelo or Melo).
No, the two players who led the 2003-04 Nuggets were Marcus Camby and Andre Miller.
Camby was part of the 2002-03 team and actually led that squad in WP48. But when you only play 616 minutes you are not going to generate many wins. The next season Camby managed to post a career high in games played. Although he still missed ten contests, he appeared often enough to produce 14.2 wins. Camby has posted a career WP48 of 0.258. So Camby producing wins when he plays is fairly typical. What is not typical is Camby actually playing. Again, he has missed at least 10 games every season he has played, and has actually appeared in only 71% of all possible regular season games (about 58 per season) during his career.
The other leader of the 2003-04 Nuggets was Andre Miller. Like Camby, Miller is also a very productive player. Unlike Camby, though, Miller consistently plays, appearing in at least 80 games each season he has played in the NBA. In 2002, Miller joined the Nuggets as a free agent proceeded to produce 12.4 wins with a 0.204 WP48.
Okay, let’s summarize. The data clearly indicates that Melo – although a great scorer – has not been a tremendously productive player. In addition, Miller and Camby combined to produce 26.6 wins in 2003-04, a mark quite similar to the team’s overall improvement. Consequently, it looks like the story in 03-04 was the health of Camby and the signing of Miller, not the drafting of Anthony.
Let me close with one last note on Anthony. Melo left Syracuse after his freshman season (by the way, he was quite good at Syracuse). Had he stayed at Syracuse for four seasons, Anthony would now be entering only his second NBA season. Again, to date he has not been a great NBA player. But given his age, maybe he can improve. Yes, that is a big maybe. But young players have been known to get better in the NBA, and the calendar tells us that Melo – a veteran of four NBA seasons — is still a “young” player.
– DJ
Our research on the NBA was summarized HERE.
Wins Produced and Win Score are Discussed in the Following Posts
Simple Models of Player Performance
What Wins Produced Says and What It Does Not Say
Wages of Wins Journal 
mrparker
September 13, 2007
1. Melo is great in International play
because he gets to play the same role that
Marion plays in Phoenix. He probably has
superior skill set, and would probably
(subjective opinion alert) be more productive
if he took Marion’s place in Phoenix’s
offense.
2. Denver needs to look at his international
play and switch their style to something
similar. They don’t necessarily have the
players to do so, but they need to look
seriouslyat acquiring different kinds of
players so that they can get the most out
of Melo. IMO, Denver has a .35+ wp48 player
on their roster if they would only use him
correctly.
Mike H
September 13, 2007
Yeah, Camby could probably get to 0.35 if they’d use him in a way that would keep him from getting injured – and maybe dump those two unproductive scorers.
Matthew
September 13, 2007
Your numbers contradict the Jason Chandler website. You have Anthony’s 06/07 wp48 as 0.098 and the jason chandler site has it as 0.130. What gives?
dberri
September 13, 2007
Matthew,
Jason Chandler has the estimated of WP48. There is a strong link between PAWSmin and WP48, so that is what Chandler uses. I think the plan is to post my WP48 numbers at Chandler’s website in the next few weeks. So those will be on-line at some point.
Paulo
September 13, 2007
mrparker,
I think that swapping Melo for Marion only debilitates both teams. From what I’ve been watching, and glancing over stats, Marion needs a distributing point guard (see Jason Kidd, Steve Nash, motivated Stephon Marbury) to be effective since it relieves him off the pressure to score, and enables him to be effective in his ideal role, which is more like a Pippen-without-the-ball-handling-skills type of role. Melo on the other hand, doesn’t have the length and end-to-end speed of a Shawn Marion (sucker punching not included) that fits Phoenix’s needs. If anything, A fair trade for Marion would be AK-47 (with a draft pick to compensate for the longer contract) or probably Igoudala and cap filler.
Melo excels in international competition because outside of Kobe, he’s their best midrange offensive threat, something that is needed with the shorter line and the wider lane. It is also been a point to make Melo their main focus on offense, which means giving him more touches, thus, giving him more chances to be creative. Yes, Melo has a superior skill set, but his skill set is not what fits the Suns’ needs, and vice-versa.
mrparker
September 16, 2007
Paulo,
In international play, I only remember Melo
hitting 3s or finishing at the rim, I don’t
rememember him going to his midrange game
very much. But, there could be a lack of
“good memorizing” on my part.
We agree on the need for Marion and Melo
to have a great distributor on their
team to be able to excel at playing the four.
That is why I think that Denver needs to
switch styles and acquire someone who can
play uptempo and distribute. Of course,, this
is a rare skill in the NBA.
My opinion that Melo would be better than
Marion in this system is based on All-Star
games and International play so it could
be a bit of a reach. I have no numbers
from which to compare the two so I have
to use my eyes which we all know can be
misleading.
cornelio
September 18, 2007
It is completely ridiculous to say that Melo was not instrumental, if not the key factor, in the resurrection of the Denver Nuggets.
This article is what happens when people get so bogged down in statistics that they fail to see the forest for the trees.
In short, ever since setting foot on the court from the beginning of his rookie seasons, who has been the recipient of the VAST majority of double teams put on a Nuggets player by opposing defenses?
Carmelo Anthony.
And this is not to take anything away from Andre or Marcus, because they are both players Ihave a great deal of respect for. But please. Without the arrival of Denver’s new young star small forward to draw defenses away from Miller and Camby and open them up for easy jumpers, neither player would have been nearly as effective. Not even close.
In international play, they can’t afford not to defend Melo’s teammates as closely, because they’re guys named James and Wade and Bryant, and this gives Anthony a lot more breathing room to work with.
“Anthony has not been a great player in his NBA career”?
Give me a freakin’ break.
Richie
September 20, 2007
Ok, without Melo, the Nuggets would still be a team under .500. Think about it, international basketball and NBA is way different. Plus we have all of our Elite players playing against players that arent even in our players caliber.
Since the Nuggets have practicaly one of the best 5 starting players in the nba. AI, Melo, Camby, NeNe, and who ever they have at point guard now. With out Melo, the nuggets would still suck and I wouldnt be a fan, and i wasnt a fan of the nuggets back in the 90’s because I thought they sucked. He might not be putting up big wp48 or whatever but that doesnt matter, as long as he scores 20+ points a game with AI and have Camby and NeNe, they will probably surpas the Suns in a year or two and win a championship…
Paulo
September 21, 2007
mrparker,
“That is why I think that Denver needs to
switch styles and acquire someone who can
play uptempo and distribute.” — mrparker
As crazy as this sounds, if AI can tailor his game to be more of a distributing point guard, and if they can get someone who can hold down the 2-spot, then Allen Iverson is the answer (no pun intended). Yes, it’s a long shot, and yes, I’m crazy for suggesting that especially in this blog, and yes, that has always been the longtime “if” for AI, but I still think it’s possible, and no, I’m not high. They had Steve Blake, but I always thought that pairing AI with a point guard would cause problems defensively for the Nuggets, like the Sixers before. That’s why I think it’s better for them to acquire a productive (at least defensively — think Raja Bell) SG rather than a PG.
As for our little Marion-Melo debate, I do think that while most of his points don’t come from midrange, it’s that threat that he can indeed score from that area that gives him the space to hit “long” jumpers (we have to remember the shorter line), and defenders have to close in on him, giving him room to go by them. Unfortunately, that same midrange game is what is lacking from Marion. Don’t get me wrong, I’m a big fan of both. But I think Melo playing PF won’t work the same way Marion playing PF does. Melo just doesn’t have the same “nose for the ball” on defense, coupled with the athleticism and length that Marion has.