The big news in the NBA is that Greg Oden is going to undergo microfracture surgery and probably miss the 2007-08 season. The question facing Oden (and fans of the Portland TrailBlazers) is how likely is it that a player can recover from such a procedure? And by recovery, we don’t mean return to the court. What Oden wants (and Blazers fans as well) is a return to the same level of productivity we think we would have seen had this never happened.
Kevin Pelton of SuperSonics.com provided a history of microfracture surgery in the NBA (hat tip to Henry Abbott and TrueHoop.com). Pelton’s report listed every player who needed microfracture surgery, as well as how the player did – in terms of individual stats and John Hollinger’s Player Efficiency Rating — the season before and after the procedure. What I wish to do is focus on the players who played substantial minutes both before and after this operation. And although the season before and after is important, I also want to see what happened to career performance both prior to and after surgery.
Pelton’s list included 23 players. Given the focus on players who both played substantial minutes before and after this event, I am only going to look at 13 players. These players will be examined from two perspectives. Again like Pelton, I will examine what the player did his last season before the surgery (and by last season, I mean last season the player played at least 1,000 minutes). And this performance will be compared to the first season after the surgery (again, except for Pat Garrity – who never played 1,000 minutes again — minimum 1,000 minutes played). Beyond a comparison of season performance, I will also examine career performance both before and after.
As noted, there are 13 players who meet these criteria. Two of these players – Anfernee Hardaway and Matt Harpring – went under the knife twice. So our total sample is 15. Table One reports the evaluation of this fairly small sample.
Table One: Performance Before and After Microfracture Surgery
Okay, let’s start with the good news. Jason Kidd and Amare Stoudemire appear to have fully recovered from this procedure. Both players actually played better after the surgery. And although Kerry Kittles declined in the season following his operation, his career performance afterwards (albeit just four seasons), did improve.
Unfortunately, the other ten players all declined. And five of these ten – Pat Garrity, Anfernee Hardaway, Allan Houston, Eduardo Najera, and Chris Webber – were quite a bit worse. In fact, it appears that this injury resulted in Hardaway, Najera, and Webber transforming from “great” players into distinctly “below average” performers.
As often stated in this forum, NBA players are quite consistent. At least, relative to what we see in football and baseball, basketball players are amazingly consistent across time. Injuries, though, appear to be one factor that can adversely impact player productivity. And this particular injury, despite a name that sounds “small”, appears capable of causing huge declines in performance.
It’s important to note that Pelton provides a complete list, which includes players like Terrell Brandon and Jamal Mashburn who never played substantial minutes after this operation. So the negative impact of this surgery may be under-stated by my list.
Now does all this mean that Oden and the Blazers are doomed? No, it’s possible he will recover just like Kidd and Stoudemire. Of course, it’s also possible that he will not, just like all the other names on the list. And unfortunately, that latter possibility cannot be considered exactly good news .
– DJ
Wages of Wins Journal 
Paulo
September 14, 2007
I also read up on the list, and it intrigues me a lot. Outside of Stoudemire, those who came back and produced never really relied on leaping ability to excel (Stockton, Harpring, Kidd, Randolph). So that doesn’t bode well for Oden. On the other hand, Oden is younger than Stoudemire (let’s not include the old man jokes for a while here), so that sounds good.
For the sake of Henry Abbot, I just hope he doesn’t end up as a Sam Bowie.
mrparker
September 14, 2007
This surgery has gotten better by leaps and
bounds. They use a similar procedure to
repair torn acl’s and the recovery time has
gone from years to as little as 3 or 4 months.
I fully expect to see Greg Oden doing great
things by January 09′. This is probably
a blessing in disguise for Portland. Some
great teams have blossomed from
losing their best player for an entire season.
Portland should be drafting pretty high
again this year, and then watch out for
the Blazers for the next 8-10 years. Their
nucleus for the 08-09 season will feature
6 players(at least) under 24.
Casey
September 14, 2007
It looks like whatever formula you used shows that Zach Randolph was better before his surgery, but I think it’s fairly obvious that his ’06-’07 season, two years removed from microfracture, was his best.
Justin
September 14, 2007
This isn’t a fair comparison because what matters is the damage on the knee and age. Oden had little damage and is young, even younger than Amare. As long as the Blazers don’t rush him back, he can be as effective as ever — along with an understanding that the game can be taken away at any time.
tangotiger
September 14, 2007
I think baseball hitters would be just as consistent if they each had 30 PA every game.
Roger Federer is “consistent” because he takes over 100 serves every match.
What you are saying is that the stats are indicative of talent, and the more samples you have, the more consistent.
It’s not the players, but the stats.
truehoop reader
September 14, 2007
“Jason Kidd and Amare Stoudemire appear to have fully recovered from this procedure.”
Only someone who doesn’t actually watch any basketball games would say that. Amare is still a great player, but he’s nowhere near as explosive as he was. Kidd is also still a great player, but his lateral quickness took a big hit. He’s often a defensive liability now.
neilan
September 14, 2007
Zach Randolph’s numbers went down the season following his microfracture surgery, but he is obviously playing the best ball of his career today.
Nik
September 14, 2007
Speaking as a medical student, and a sports fan, I think you’ve seriously overlooked some really important factors in this article.
1) You haven’t factored in doctors getting better at the procedure, when Tommy John had Tommy John surgery, they estimated his chances of a full recovery at 1 in a 100, and it took 18 months of recovery to get back to playing form, today it takes 6 motnhs to recover, and on the low side has an 85% success rate, similarly, Penny Hardaways recovery has darn near nothing in common with Amare’s.
2) Not all microfracture surgeries are equal, When Chris Webber had microfracture surgery, the lesion they repaired was both in a load bearing area of the knee, and much larger than the lesion in Amare’s knee, which was located on an area of the knee that doesn’t carry the same level of weight.
bjk
September 14, 2007
Could the “age” of Oden’s bones be related to the fact he looks like he’s 45 years old? Some sort of accelerated aging, related to his height maybe?
Ian
September 16, 2007
Eduardo Najera a “great” player before the surgery?
And please, dear God get a new banner at the top of the page. That is atrocious.