After 24 games last season the Philadelphia 76ers were 5-19. And then Andre Miller and Joe Smith arrived (in the Allen Iverson trade) and the 76ers suddenly were transformed from the NBA’s worst team to a distinctly average club. After the arrival of Miller and Smith, the Sixers won 30 of their last 58 contests (an outcome I predicted exactly). This pace translates into 42 victories over 82 games. Again, with Miller and Smith this team was average.
Although this team was average, everyone on the team was not. Table One reports the Wins Produced and WP48 (Wins Produced per 48 minutes) of each Sixer player in 2006-07 (and 2005-06 as well).
Table One: The Philadelphia 76ers in 2005-06 and 2006-07
The Good
From Table One we see that Andre Iguodala, Sam Dalembert, and A. Miller were quite a bit above average. These three players produced 29.0 wins and combined to post a WP48 of 0.180. Average is 0.100, so these players were quite good.
Unfortunately, the rest of the roster combined to offer a Wins Produced of only 3.9. Again, the discussion of the Pareto Principle revealed that it’s not unusual for a team to get most of its production from just three players. The Sixers, though, received virtually all of their production from just three players.
The Average
That’s not to say that everyone else was “bad.” For example, the aforementioned Joe Smith was quite close to average. Before discussing the truly “bad” on this roster, it might be a good idea to discuss what Smith meant to this team in 06-07.
One problem the Sixers had was a lack of big men. Looking over the minutes of this team, it is clear that at some point the 76ers had to be playing at power forward Rodney Carney and/or Kyle Korver. These two players are below average for small forwards. Moving either to power forward – which it appears the Sixers did for at least 800 minutes last year — is a serious problem.
Now why is it a problem? The average power forward grabs 11.4 rebounds per 48 minutes played. An average small forward only grabs 7.6 boards in this time (by the way, someone asked for averages for all positions, and yes I will post these at some point). So moving an average small forward to power forward will cost a team about four rebounds per 48 minutes. Since each rebound is worth about 0.033 wins (as noted in The Wages of Wins), losing four rebounds will cost 0.132 victories. If you did this every 48 minutes, across an 82 game season you would lose eleven more games. Obviously the Sixers didn’t play a small forward at power forward for 48 minutes of each game all season. Still, you can see why playing players out of position can be so costly.
The Bad
And this was not the only costly decision the Sixers made last season. Again, every player on this team was not good or average. We noted the very good. And we noted the average. Now it’s time for those that are neither good nor average.
Willie Green – who I profiled a few days ago – offers so little production relative to an average shooting guard that he cost the team 4.6 wins. And Carney, whether he played small forward or power forward, also cost the team wins.
Unfortunately for Sixer fans, it’s not entirely clear that the problems of this roster have been fixed. Both Green and Carney are still employed. And it looks like both will play in 07-08.
Adding Reggie Evans
As for the power forward spot, average Joe Smith has moved on to Chicago. And Steven Hunter, another big man from last year, was traded to Denver.
The good news is that Hunter was traded for Reggie Evans. For his career, Evans has a 0.216 WP48. Due to his ability to rebound, Evans is a very productive power forward.
But he is also short and unable to score much. This is why the Sonics – who got to 50 wins in 2004-05 partly because Evans was so productive – were willing to let him go to Denver in middle of the 2005-06 season. And this is why Denver – despite seeing a WP48 of 0.266 from Evans last year – was willing to trade him to Philadelphia for Hunter (a taller player who also can’t score much).
Persistent Problems and a Vague Forecast
Although I think Evans should be on the floor thirty plus minutes a night, I suspect this will not happen in 07-08. And that leads me to ask – what other big men are going to play? The team has Dalembert and first round pick Jason Smith. It also has Shavlik Randolph, who played well last year before a serious injury. After that, all that is left is Calvin Booth (who has never been very productive in his eight year career), Herbert Hill (a second round draft choice), and Louis Amundson (whose career so far has consisted of 91 minutes).
This lack of big men suggests to me that once again the Sixers will be playing people out of position. And on top of playing people out of position, the Sixers will also likely give minutes to Carney and Green, and lottery choice Thaddeus Young (a player Chad Ford at ESPN.com compared to Al Harrington, a player I have frequently noted is not very productive). Given what we know of Carney, Green, and Young it doesn’t seem reasonable to expect much help from any of these players in 07-08.
There is good news. A.Miller, Dalembert, Iguodala, and Evans will produce. This combination could move the 76ers past the 35 win mark. But expecting much more requires that someone else on this roster does something. Of course it’s possible that will happen. But given what we have seen before, it seems unlikely.
Making Forecasts
Okay, I sort of made a forecast for the 76ers. And I should note that I have gone through the roster of each team and sort of made a forecast for all 30 NBA teams. So you should look for a post on this before the season starts. I should note that I still have to review the 2006-07 season for Dallas, Denver, Detroit, Houston, Indiana, and, Phoenix before I get to my forecast. And I should also note that I do not intend to give a specific wins forecast for each team. For reasons I will explain, I do not think a specific number is justified by what we know. Still, I think a general idea where each team will finish can be noted.
One Last Observation
The title of this post is “After the Answer” and I have barely mentioned Allen Iverson. This is actually quite consistent with what we do in The Wages of Wins.
If you have heard of The Wages of Wins, yet never actually read the book, you might think much of our book was about Allen Iverson. Certainly much of the coverage of the book by the media has focused on our evaluation of “The Answer” and how that differs from popular perception.
In reality, though, Iverson is barely mentioned in the book. Iverson’s star power– and its impact on attendance– is noted in the discussion of competitive balance in the NBA (Chapter Five). And his impact on wins is noted across six pages in Chapter Seven. Other than additional brief mentions here and there, the rest of the book doesn’t discuss Iverson at all. In fact, much of the book isn’t even about basketball.
Still, the Iverson story was what Malcolm Gladwell seized upon in telling The Wages of Wins story in The New Yorker (an article I still enjoy reading for obvious reasons). And Gladwell was correct, what we say about Iverson captures the basic point we make about the NBA. Decision-makers in the NBA overvalue scoring and undervalue shooting efficiency and other aspects of performance. And although the 76ers in 06-07 demonstrated quite clearly what happens when less production is replaced by more production, I think the bias towards scoring still persists in the NBA.
– DJ
Our research on the NBA was summarized HERE.
The equation connecting wins to offensive/defensive efficiency is given HERE
Wins Produced and Win Score are discussed in the following posts
Simple Models of Player Performance
What Wins Produced Says and What It Does Not Say
Wages of Wins Journal 
Chirstopher
October 11, 2007
Great post. I look forward to the rankings. I also think the 76erss stuff is really powerful as the arguments centered around AI really drive home some of the major points in your book.
Ryan Schwan
October 11, 2007
Hey DJ,
I’m have an issue with your point that playing a SF out of position as a PF naturally results in losses due to the reduction in the number of rebounds. In general, Power Forwards have more opportunity to rebound, since that is one of their designated responsibilities – Small Forwards are frequently given the responsibility of being the first down the court to put pressure on the defense.
Is there analysis stating that a player rebounds at a consistent level, despite their assigned position?
Jason
October 11, 2007
From what I can see at the 82games.com site, small forwards who have to ‘play big’ do see an increase in rebounds. ‘Playing out of position’ seems to make players alter their games to resemble the archetype of the new position. For instance, Rashard Lewis, when he played PF did rebound better than his average overall. What the magnitude of this for all players is isn’t something I know. I suspect that some players are adept at conforming to the new position and perform well, others not so much.
Of course, ‘position’ is somewhat artificial and arbitrary. In most cases on most teams, there are players who, for the most part fit closely to the definition in terms of what aspects of the game they’re expected to cover. But this is not always the case. I’m curious how ‘small ball’ fits into this. In cases with three guards, all more or less expected (and doing) the same things, the ones labeled as forwards get penalized, those labeled as guards will likely get a benefit. As a team statistic, WP will still be valid however, and it’s pure speculation on my part as to how much this will affect individual players. My guess is that in most cases, it’s not *that* big a deal. It might make an average performer look a bit over or under average, but it isn’t going to make Willie Green into Steve Nash.
dberri
October 11, 2007
I do not know that this is true for sure, but I have heard (from someone who I think knows) that 82games.com assigns positions partly on what a player does on the court. So if there are two forwards, the one who rebounds more is more likely to be called the power forward. To the extent that is true, this means our ability to use 82games.com data to evaluate positions is hampered.
I would also add that just having the responsibility to rebound doesn’t mean that will happen. Eddy Curry is supposed to rebound and he doesn’t. Curry is most definitely a center. And he is not the only center who fails to rebound.
So just saying to a player “you are the power forward” or “you are the center” doesn’t mean the player is suddenly going to rebound. I suspect that this is quite true for both Carney and Korver. Putting these guys out there in that position is not going to cause either to become a competent rebounder.
Jason
October 11, 2007
At least in the case of Al Harrington, he rebounded poorly at any position he played relative to the position, though he rebounded better in absolute terms better when he was playing center (as determined by being the biggest guy on the court). In the last month of the season, he was inserted exclusively as a center, essentially rotating with Andris Biedrins such that only one was ever on the court. Per minute, Harrington saw his rebounds go up during this period, though it was still underwhelming. Harrington can rise to the occasion of underperforming at any position you put him in!
Eliot
October 11, 2007
Yep Al Harrington will stink at rebounding no matter what he plays. He has to be one of the most overrated players in the league, a volume scoring forward who can’t rebound and plays pretty bad d.