When I write about sports I typically like to pretend that I’m an objective academic. In essence, I look at the data and tell the story I see.
Of course, sometimes I have trouble believing what I see. Consider the team I follow, the Detroit Pistons. As I noted last month, I was born in the Motor City and have spent my life following the Pistons, Lions, and Tigers. When my teams win I am happy.
A Lions Rant
And when my team loses because Paris Lenon doesn’t know a linebacker is supposed to fall on a fumble; then I’m unhappy. For those who missed the Lions game on Sunday, Detroit would have thwarted the Cowboys comeback if Lenon would have simply fallen on a fumble with about two minutes to play. That’s all he had to do. Instead he tried to pick it up and run. Where he was running to, I’m not sure. When he tried to run, though, he booted it back to the Cowboys. Soon after, Romo is a hero and the Lions season is shot to hell.
Okay, enough ranting on the Lions. What was I talking about? Oh yes, the Pistons.
Back to the Pistons
Last year the Pistons won 53 games, which is pretty good. Not as good as the 64 this team won in 2005-06, or the 54 the team won en route to the NBA Finals in 2004 and 2005, but still much better than what the Pistons did in the late 1970s (my earliest memory of this team) or for a few years in the 1990s.
In the off-season the Pistons made few significant moves. At shooting guard the Pistons gave Carlos Delfino – an above average shooting guard – to the Toronto Raptors (where he continues to be an above average shooting guard). Detroit then signed Jarvis Hayes, who has produced -0.1 wins across his entire career. Going from Delfino to Hayes didn’t seem like a step forward.
In addition to the Hayes for Delfino swap, the Pistons also failed to re-sign Chris Webber. Webber was only average last year, but he looked to be a better player than his proposed replacement, Jason Maxiell. Maxiell posted a -0.002 WP48 [Wins Produced per 48 minutes] last year, which is well below average.
Given these two moves, I fully expected the Pistons to decline somewhat in 2007-08. But after 20 games this year, the Pistons are on pace to improve on last year’s record. Okay, the won-loss record doesn’t say there has been a big improvement. A 14-6 mark only put the team on pace to win 57 games, or a bit better than what they were last year.
But the team’s efficiency differential (offensive efficiency minus defensive efficiency) is 9.1. This mark is consistent with a team that plans on winning more than 60 games. In sum, the Pistons – as John Hollinger’s rankings indicate – look like a title contender.
Turning to Wins Produced, we can see which players improved on this team.
Table One: Projecting the Pistons in 2007-08
Table One reports two projections. The first indicates how many wins the Pistons could expect if these players (except the rookies) played as well as they did last year in the minutes they are playing this year. This projection says this team should be on pace to win about 46 games. In sum, right where I thought they would be before the season started.
But then there is the second projection. This tells us how many wins this team could expect if the players continue to play as they did across the first 20 games. This projection says the team is on pace to win 63 games this season.
Turning to the individual players, we can identify three players who account for nearly 15 of the 17 additional wins we see in the second projection. These players are Jason Maxiell, Jarvis Hayes, and Rasheed Wallace.
Maxiell has posted the biggest improvement, and given that he had only played 1,100 minutes in his career entering the season, it’s not too surprising to see such a jump. Young players can make big leaps early in their careers.
We cannot say the same about Hayes and Wallace. These two players have been around awhile. To see these players take a step forward is somewhat shocking.
An Explanation?
In fact, it leads me to search for an explanation. Throughout the first few weeks of the season I have been looking at various teams around the league. Each time I look at a team I say “it’s early.” This means, the sample we have is too small and we shouldn’t be surprised if things change.
What does “it’s early” mean for the Pistons? John Hollinger reports Strength of Schedule for each team in the Association. When we look at a team over the course of an 82 game schedule, SOS (average winning percentage for a team’s opponents) should even out. But early on, SOS isn’t going to be even. So far SOS for the Pistons is 0.447. Only the Denver Nuggets have played an easier schedule.
Looking at Detroit’s schedule we see that the Pistons have only played five teams that currently have won more than they lost. So far they have not played Boston, Toronto, San Antonio, and Phoenix. One suspects that when the schedule gets tougher the efficiency differential of the Pistons will fall and the Wins Produced of the team’s players will decline.
Or maybe not. Maybe Maxiell is really this good. Maybe Wallace and Hayes have suddenly improved. And maybe Paris Lenon, with a bit more practice, could learn how to fall on a fumble.
– DJ
Our research on the NBA was summarized HERE.
The Technical Notes at wagesofwins.com provides substantially more information on the published research behind Wins Produced and Win Score
Wins Produced, Win Score, and PAWSmin are also discussed in the following posts:
Simple Models of Player Performance
What Wins Produced Says and What It Does Not Say
Introducing PAWSmin — and a Defense of Box Score Statistics
Finally, A Guide to Evaluating Models contains useful hints on how to interpret and evaluate statistical models.
Wages of Wins Journal 
Jimm
December 11, 2007
I’m glad you figured that out yourself, because I’d hate to the bearer of bad tidings (at least the one who breaks the story, not repeats it).
Detroit is not that good, and their schedule has been cake, so the record is going to take a hit as the season progresses, but there’s a bit of irony as I say this, because I’m absolutely bullish on the Pistons future, as Rodney Stuckey, Amir Johnson, and Jason Maxiell are going to be studs in my opinion, and you still have the rights to Alex Acker who may yet become a force in this league as well (or at least a solid role player).
Even this season, the Pistons have played really well with a bad schedule, but have also done so without the services of Stuckey, who by my unscientific analysis will be a Top 3 Impact Rookie this season, a guy who will be able to bring impact and spark off the bench in his rookie season (unlike other guys who need more time). The guy is truly gifted and skilled, and of course my instincts could be way off, but if I was a Detroit fan I’d be happy about the young nucleus of Stuckey, Johnson, Maxiell, Afflalo, Samb and Acker.
Of course, none of this is scientific or statistical by any stretch, as far as projecting out youth when there’s not much to go by (especially in the case of Johnson, Samb and Acker), but I love the way Dumars has forged a veteran core as well as the next generation youthful core (though nothing will probably pardon Dumars for taking Darko over Melo, what was he thinking?).
Jimm
December 11, 2007
To clarify, I do think the Pistons are “really” good, easily Top 4 in the East, just not “this” good, as in their current record (following the thread theme).
Ben Guest
December 11, 2007
DJ,
Could it have something to do with coaching? I remember you alluding to a breakdown you had done of various coaches and how they impacted WP48. Was Flip one of the coaches who had a positive impact?
Also, I imagine Hayes’ improvement has to do with his increased shooting percentage (.458 this season as compared to .406 for his career). He has always been a good mid-range shooter, and Detroit runs a lot of stuff off curls to free up Rip/Hayes for the mid-range.
dberri
December 11, 2007
Ben,
It could be coaching. Flip is one of those we have found to have an impact. And I like your explanation for Hayes.
SOS, though, does stand out at the moment.
The Franchise
December 11, 2007
Taking Darko over Melo wasn’t that big a deal, though–Anthony is not a particularly good NBA player, but he’s a “star”. He would be paid more than his value, and take away from the team’s ability to hire players that would contribute more cost-effectively.
Amerri
December 11, 2007
How well the Pistons play, and how far they go as a team, actually depends on Chauncey Billups. When Chauncey is aggressive the team wins. When he’s passive, the team loose. Take the Bulls game for example. The Pistons problem is that they were not getting any rebounds and poor rebounding has to do with not being aggressive, which is what caused the Pistons to loose. Had the Pistons been aggressive, starting with their leader Chauncey Billups, then they would have rebounded the ball a lot better, and had a better chance of winning. Unfortunately Chauncey waited till the fourth quarter to be aggressive. By then it was too late.
http://detroit-pistonsfans.blogspot.com
Kevin
December 11, 2007
Don’t forget the injuries that plagued Detroit for about the first 10 games and playing a huge role in a few of their losses.
What’s promising is that last year, we needed the starters to be out there in the 4th quater in blowouts because we were so afraid of blowing the lead. This year, our reserves not only hold that lead but often increase it.
There’s a lot to look forward to this year, and I think this team is back on the rise. Look for them to put together very tough games when they do play the top teams.
Jimm
December 11, 2007
I’ve never seen Hayes play all that much with the Wizards, but I did see him in some games, and I came away much more impressed from what I’ve seen from him this season in Detroit.
The first game I noticed him in a Pistons uniform, I was wondering who the heck this guy was, looked aggressive and could get into the lane, went hard for some offensive glass, and lo and behold it was Hayes.
Jimm
December 11, 2007
As for Melo, that guy is only going to get better, and the Pistons likely would be a dynasty right now had they drafted him.
Brian
December 11, 2007
So… while we’re dooming the Pistons because of their cake schedule, anyone care to bring up the schedule so far for those mighty Boston Celtics?
Jimm
December 11, 2007
Not much better Brian…it will be interesting when it does get difficult for the Celtics, especially with their questionable depth (at this point, I actually like their young depth going into the future, and maybe even by playoffs this season).
Animal
December 11, 2007
I like cats.