Last week I provided a column that was so weak I thought it was a good idea to provide links to people who had better insights. The list of links led a couple of people to ask if I could post links on a regular basis. So this weekend I thought I would give it a try. Turns out that what Henry Abbott at TrueHoop does every day is not so easy. He comes up with numerous links to basketball related stuff every morning. I had trouble coming up with a far shorter list, and I had an entire week to think about it. Nevertheless, I did come up with a few links to items I found interesting. So without further introduction, here is the first (and perhaps last) weekend bullets for the WoW Journal.
— Carl Bialik – the Numbers Guy at the Wall Street Journal – wrote The Giants Defy the Numbers. In this column is an interesting observation by Aaron Schatz of Football Outsiders. There have been plenty of comments in our discussion threads, saying that the Giants’ postseason run shows a major flaw in our DVOA formula. None of these comments, as far as I can tell, give any suggestions that would improve things.”
This comment is interesting because it highlights something I have observed also. It’s one thing to say a particular method is incorrect. It’s quite another to suggest an improvement and demonstrate that what is suggested actually makes things better.
— MKE Bucks Diary has offered a collection of interesting columns in the spirit of The Wages of Wins. Although each is quite interesting, the column identifying the most reliable stars was quite enlightening. I wonder how many WoW readers can guess Mr. Consistency.
Two “ferocious” Knickerbockers
Miserable end to bad Bucks month
Identifying the NBA’s Reliable Scorers
Which NBA stars are most reliable?
— More WoW inspired work. The blog In the Shadows of the San Gabriels has two columns on college basketball, as well as a description of Win Score. As Erich Doerr noted as well, the evaluation of Love and Mayo may be the story of the 2008 draft.
Why UCLA is lucky to have Kevin Love
A description of Win Score, valuable for future posts
—Ben Guest has often commented in this forum. Turns out he has a blog of his own (which I only recently noticed). There is much to recommend at Ben Guest’s Blog (which covers more than sports), but a good place to start reading is the following column on Kendrick Perkins.
—Jeffry Standen — the Sports Law Professor – a professor at Willamette University, explains why Boston might field dominant teams for quite some time in the future.
In Boston Forever?, Standen uses economic theory – specifically the Rottenberg theroem – to make his point that sports leagues do not want parity and competitive balance. By the way, Standen also wrote: Why Study Sports Law? which is an excellent column for aspiring sports law professors to read.
—Finally, Justin Wolfers wrote A Super Bowl Preview from the Freako Family for the Freakonomics blog. Wolfers asked each of the contributors at Freakonomics to note who they were supporting in the Super Bowl, how they would bet, and most importantly, what they would be eating. In the spirit of the Wolfers column, here are my answers:
Cheering for: The New York Giants. My daughters like Peyton Manning. So they are rooting for his brother. In the interest of family harmony, and also because my Lions are nowhere near the Super Bowl, I will also root for the Giants.
If it were legal to bet, my $100 goes: First of all, clearly they are paying this collection of professors better than I am getting paid. $100 on the Super Bowl? If I were to bet (not $100), I would bet on the Patriots. Although (as the Bialik column noted) football is hard to predict, the Patriots have to be the favorites in this game.
Super Bowl menu: We will either order pizza or Mexican food. Not sure which one yet. I will say that the food is probably going to be the best part of the game.
Wolfers also asked people to make a prediction for the game. At Freakonomics you get something for guessing right. Here we will play it differently. If you guess right, we will all be impressed. And I will go first. I guess… Patriots 38 Giants 14
I am hoping for a much better game than my guess. But I have a feeling that the halftime show might be the highlight of the evening.
– DJ
Wages of Wins Journal 
Animal
February 3, 2008
Great set of links! Thanks!
Kent
February 3, 2008
Nice, a shout out to Win Score in the Wall Street Journal!
“Just 15% of a quarterback’s performance in one season, as measured by a statistic known as Win Score, is explained by his performance the prior season, according to the developer of that stat. ”
I like these links columns.
Dan
February 3, 2008
Patriots 34 – Giants 20, Walker MVP
Dan
February 3, 2008
I think the weekend bullets posts are great too.
Erich
February 3, 2008
David,
Perhaps those Freakonomics bloggers get bigger paychecks, or your family’s needs have raised your risk aversion.
Please note that a bet on the Patriots is going off at ~ -425 (bet $425 to win $100, or bet $100 to win 23.50). From your column, I did not detect any indication of knowledge on the current lines. I advise you shop for market prices on odds (TradeSports?) before picking a bet.
Overall, I believe betting is one way to prove a system’s power. DVOA, Win Scores, VORP, and the like all deserve more credit once they beat the prevailing models out there and, over time, move lines towards their predictions.
Erich
Oh yes, I’ll be rooting on the Patriots, betting a “proverbial” $100 on 1st.Punt.Giants @ -150, and enjoying whatever food my party host serves. I’ll predict Patriots with TMQ’s 20-17 Final Score Prediction (TM).
Ben Guest
February 3, 2008
DB,
Appreciate the shout-out. Thank you sir.
I’m a Pats fan but worry that predicting a score, or even an outcome, will jinx the game. Food will be wings and pizza.
And I agree with everyone else that a regular links column is a great idea.
Andrew
February 3, 2008
G-Men 27 – Pats 23
(Prediction completely motivated by not wanting to see another Boston-area title)
C0-MVPs: Bradshaw/Jacobs
Gustave Whitehead
February 3, 2008
Giants 31 – Patriots 27
The MVP will be Eli for his 3 TDs and no interceptions. Tiki who? Jacobs/Bradshaw will post a good game.
Brad
February 3, 2008
Go New York Football Giants!
Tom
February 3, 2008
Happy Super Bowl everybody1
Tom
February 3, 2008
Oh, and I say Giants win 34-31.
Animal
February 3, 2008
Erich, your Giants punt bet looking good now after they won the coin toss and will receive!
Animal
February 3, 2008
Wow, 1 full quarter and no one has punted yet!
Tom
February 3, 2008
finally a punt midway thru q2
Animal
February 3, 2008
who do u think first half mvp would be?
tuck if giants were winning. but who for new england? they all stunk
Kent
February 3, 2008
Dave, want to take back your Patriots 38 Giants 14 call? :-)
dberri
February 3, 2008
No. In the fourth quarter the Giants will score 11 (touchdown, two point conversion, and field goal). But the Patriots are going to score four touchdowns and kick a field goal. So get ready.
Animal
February 3, 2008
New York Giants are Super Bowl 42 Champions!!!!!!!!
patriots finish the year 18-1!!!!
Animal
February 3, 2008
Tom, great prediction of Giants winning by 3! Andrew and Gus, very close predictions of Giants winning by 4!!! Wow, the people in the comments section were prescient!
Animal
February 3, 2008
And dberri, great column as usual.
Erich
February 4, 2008
I guess I eat crow on the punt bet.
That was a great game, and I’ll miss you, football, until September. Now it is time for the sports slumber. Wake me for the NCAA tourney please…
Animal
February 4, 2008
The punt bet didn’t work out but I still thought it was a decent one. I didn’t look at the numbers but I’d guess the number of Patriots’ posessions that ended in punts this year was really low, enough to make you think the odds were more towards a Giants punt than that betting line suggested.