The Western Conference, from top to bottom, is clearly the best conference this season. But as I noted a few days ago, the stars of the West were not clearly better than their counterparts in the East. So we should not be surprised that the Eastern stars prevailed in the 2008 All-Star game.
The M2P
Was LeBron James, though, the game’s MVP? To answer that question, let’s turn to PAWS [Position Adjusted Win Score]. Table One reports Win Score, Win Score per minute, PAWS, and PAWS per minute for each of the participants in the 2008 NBA All-Star Game.
Table One: PAWS in the 2008 All-Star Game
Table One indicates that LeBron certainly played well. But he was not the M2P (Most Productive Player). That honor went to (drum roll, please)… Brandon Roy. Yes, with a mark of 16.3, Roy was the most productive star in the All-Star game.
But Roy’s team lost. On the winners, the M2P was the player Doug Collins identified as the MVP of the game. Yes, Ray Allen – the last addition to the team – was the M2P in the East.
As for King James, he placed fourth, right behind Mr. Slam Dunk (or Superman), Dwight Howard.
Thoughts on the Slam Dunk Competitors
Speaking of the slam dunk competition, a thought occurred to me as I watched this on Saturday night. Clearly the competitors for this title are extremely athletic. I imagine few people can blow out a candle and slam dunk a basketball at the same time. But how does this athletic skill translate into wins?
For the winner of this competition, Dwight Howard, we know his skills do produce wins. After all, Howard was the M2P of the first half of the season. For the other competitors, though, the answer is not that clear.
Table Two: The non-Winners of the Slam-Dunk Competition
Table Two reports the productivity of Rudy Gay, Jamario Moon, and Gerald Green. All three players are primarily small forwards, and we see that relative to average at this position, all three have shortcomings. Gay is an above average scorer, but not particularly good at any other aspect of the game. Moon falls a bit short in terms of shot attempts, but is exceptional with respect to net possessions (rebounds + steals – turnovers). And Green can be average as a scorer (at least he was in 2006-07), but he is below average with respect to most other aspects of the game.
Of the three, I suspect Gay is the preferred player for most NBA fans. Certainly he improved tremendously between his rookie and sophomore season. And Gay is easily the most prolific scorer. In terms of wins, though, Moon is somewhat more productive. No, Moon cannot score like Gay. At least, he hasn’t shown this skill yet. But his work with respect to the non-scoring aspects of the game, give him the nod over Gay.
Although people might debate the merits of Gay and Moon, I think it’s clear that Green has not been a productive NBA player. This is clear when you look at Wins Produced, Win Score, or even NBA Efficiency. Green’s shortcomings should be used as an illustration for young basketball players. Yes, Green has amazing athletic ability. But NBA players are not asked to blow out candles while dunking basketballs. The game of basketball requires that you offer something beyond scoring. Rebounds, steals, and turnovers are all correlated with team wins. And when a player ignores these aspects of the game, both his productivity and his team will suffer.
The Other News
The big news over the weekend was not the All-Star festivities. The Hawks and Kings swapped players and hence signaled to their fans that the playoffs are the team’s priority. Of course, the Hawks are focused on the 2008 playoffs, while the Kings are looking at 2009 (or 2010, 2011, etc…). My plan is to offer some thoughts this week on whether this move allows each team to achieve its objectives.
In addition, the Nets might be moving Jason Kidd to the Mavericks. Will this make Dallas the favorites in the West? Or will this move derail the title aspirations of the Mavericks? Again, I will try and answer these questions this week as well.
– DJ
Our research on the NBA was summarized HERE.
The Technical Notes at wagesofwins.com provides substantially more information on the published research behind Wins Produced and Win Score
Wins Produced, Win Score, and PAWSmin are also discussed in the following posts:
Simple Models of Player Performance
What Wins Produced Says and What It Does Not Say
Introducing PAWSmin — and a Defense of Box Score Statistics
Finally, A Guide to Evaluating Models contains useful hints on how to interpret and evaluate statistical models.
Wages of Wins Journal 
Animal
February 18, 2008
As a Mavs fan, Jason Kidd fan, and Win Score fan, I’m really looking forward to the column on how Kidd will help the Mavs! :-)
Kent
February 18, 2008
The integrity of the slam dunk contest has been lost and it’s all gimmicks now. There should be no cakes or ladders allowed as props. The contest jumped the shark that year when a guy won by dunking with a fake blind fold.
Costa
February 18, 2008
Saying “the integrity of the slam dunk contest has been lost due to all the gimmicks” is like saying “the credibility of Paris Hilton’s acting career has been ruined by The Hottie and the Nottie”. We’re not talking about some revered basketball event here. It’s always been no more than a circus sideshow meant more for the kids than anyone else, and there’s nothing wrong with that.
Pete23
February 18, 2008
Kent, I think the slam dunk contest jumped the shark the year it was used for product placement. A participant had an endorsement contract with Reebok and “pumped” his shoes before taking off on the dunk. This year it truly got ridiculous. Blowing out a cake candle while dunking. Using a ladder. Attaching a device to the rim to the backboard to prop up the ball. Wearning a Superman cape. In the “superman” dunk Howard received a score of 50 even though he didn’t make it to the basket. He threw the ball in. It should have been disallowed.
Owen
February 18, 2008
I enjoyed the slam dunk contest, no need for a purity test in my book….
Kent
February 18, 2008
Pete, when I was growing up guys like Dominique Wilkins, Michael Jordan, and Spud Webb had such talent that they didn’t need props to put on an astonishing show in the slam dunk contest. The current crop just doesn’t measure up.
Wayne Douglas
February 18, 2008
This is the mos rediculas piece of crap that i have read in a long time. You must be one of Skip Bayless deciples!
antonio
February 18, 2008
seriously, how bout the dunkers now need to think of something NEW because doing the same old dunks, which had been going on for the past few years became extremely boring. it was nice to see a change up and some creativity. how bout jordan wilkins and webb didnt need props because they were the first to perform their dunks, so what they did was new and fresh?
T33
February 18, 2008
Kobe Bryant is clearly the MVP of the Western Conference. Consider the fact that the MVP’s from the last 4 seasons played in Sundays exhibition and they all looked like rookies. Tim Duncan looked slow and uncomfortable, Nash should that when forced to think about plays rather than jus throw it up he is considerably less effective, and Dirk Nowitzki looked as out of place as a prostitute at church. AI was a turnover machine, and it was clear that the run n gun type starters of the west were not equipped to perform against the east in a half-court game.The east dictated pace and style and thus got the victory. Chris Paul was phenomenal and Brandon Roy was fantastic, but clearly the west needed Bryant’s passion, passing, defense and shooting. Especially late in the game, i doubt Ray Allen would have been as open for those last two 3’s as he was. The west lacked desire and heart and left much to be desired. They owe basketball fans across the world an apology because they deserved more.
Animal
February 18, 2008
Tony,
Jordan/Webb/Wilkins were more talented than the participants of today. Jordan dunked from the free throw line. Howard couldn’t do that so dunked from a few feet within the free throw line and wore a cape to distract from that fact. There might be players in the NBA today– like Vince Carter– that could match the talent level fo the past but the really good guys don’t bother with the contest anymore.
Kent
February 18, 2008
A slam dunk counts the same as a layup. I wonder if dunkers are overrated because they are flashy. In other words, are the dunkers overpaid relative to their win score productivity.
Pete23
February 18, 2008
Wouldn’t dunkers being overrated be same thing as inefficient scorers being overrated? Not perfect overlap but simialr conceptually.
antonio
February 18, 2008
not true- have you seen jamario moon? he dunked 2 FEET from behind the free throw line. While maybe he could not dunk from the free throw line, how about his dunk off the back of the backboard? has that ever been seen? Or Rudy Gay’s second dunk? Those were simply amazing. To see the guys in the dunk contest are not as good as the past is just ridiculous.
andrew
February 18, 2008
Jordan is the best player ever. No questions asked. That doesn’t mean he’s the best dunker, however. His best non-FT line dunk, the “Kiss the Rim” dunk, was average at best. It would have been like a 37 at this year’s contest.
antonio
February 18, 2008
exactly my point. in terms of dunkers, the 80s dont compare to now. they only seemed better because at the time what they were doing seemed groundbreaking. not anymore