On Tuesday morning the Houston Rockets received what seems like the worst possible news. Yao Ming is not going to play anymore this season. Since he’s clearly their most productive player, the Rockets (and Tracy McGrady) dream of playoff success are now over.
And then on Tuesday night we saw a different story. The Rockets – without Yao – blew the Washington Wizards off the court.
Such a result is reminiscent of last season. On December 23rd of 2006, Yao fractured his leg. This injury caused him to miss 32 games. Across these 32 games, though, the Rockets managed to post a 0.625 percentage, a record that surpassed the team’s record with Yao in the line-up.
Can we expect to see such a story again this season?
The Rockets with Yao
Before we get to that question, let’s look at what the Rockets have done so far this season. Table One offers two projections of Houston’s Wins Produced. The first assumes that what we saw from these players last season (except the rookies) will be seen this year. The second projection assumes that what we have seen so far this season will be seen the rest of the 2007-08 campaign.
Table One: The Houston Rockets after 56 games
As one can see, both projections are quite similar. Had each player on the Rockets played as well as he did last season, the Rockets would be on pace to win 54 games. Given what these players have done this year, though, we would expect 51 victories. The only real difference is seen with respect to the play of Bonzi Wells. Last season Wells was uncharacteristically unproductive. This season, under Rick Adelman (the coach he played for in Sacramento), Wells has been well above average.
Of course, now he gets a chance to be well above average in New Orleans. So the departure of Wells doesn’t help. His departure, though, also allowed the team to rid itself of Mike James. James was playing very badly, so his loss is quite the positive. In sum, the trade of Wells and James for Bobby Jackson doesn’t look like a transaction that is going to dramatically help or hurt this squad.
The loss of Yao, though, is another story. Yao leads the Rockets in Wins Produced, more than doubling the production of the second most productive player (Shane Battier). How can the team survive this loss?
Losing Yao
Last season Mount Mutombo came to the rescue. For the 2006-07 season, Dikembe Mutombo posted a WP48 [Wins Produced per 48 minutes] that was more than three times the level posted by an average player. Such production – as I detailed last March – allowed the Rockets to survive the loss of Yao last year.
This year, though, Mutombo is offering quite a bit less. His WP48 of 0.068 is actually below average. Now this could be for two reasons:
1. Mutombo is old. He’s the last survivor of the 1991 draft class and he clearly is near the end of the line.
2. Mutombo hasn’t played much. This is another possibility. When a player doesn’t get consistent minutes his per-minute performance can drop.
In his first game back in the starting line-up, Mutombo offered 6 boards and 4 blocked shots in 23 minutes. Such production was above average (on a per-minute) basis, suggesting that maybe reason #2 is plausible (of course he’s still old). And if it’s reason #2, maybe we will see a repeat of what we saw last year.
But let’s ignore for a moment Tuesday night’s sample of one. Let’s say that Mutombo isn’t suffering from lack of playing time and that he really is old. If this is the case, the Rockets might still be able to survive the loss of Yao.
To see this, let’s imagine the Rockets allocate minutes in the following fashion (inspired but what they did Tuesday night):
Rafer Alston: 32 [0.130 WP48]
Tracy McGrady: 36 minutes [0.103 WP48]
Shane Battier: 32 minutes [0.101 WP48]
Luis Scola: 34 minutes [0.085 WP48]
Dikembe Mutombo: 20 minutes [0.068 WP48]
Bobby Jackson: 16 minutes [0.094 WP48]
Luther Head: 26 minutes [0.065 WP48]
Chuck Hayes: 20 minutes [0.184 WP48]
Carl Landry: 20 minutes [0.298 WP48]
Given these minutes and these performance levels, the Rockets could expect to win about 49 games over an 82 game season. In other words, they are not too far off the pace they were with Yao
How is this possible? The key is the play of Carl Landry. As I detailed a couple of days ago, Landry has been very productive for the Rockets this year. With Yao out, Landry will get more minutes. And if Landry maintains his production (a very big if given the size of the sample we have seen), the Rockets can still win without Yao.
A Few Caveats
Okay, a few other things to keep in mind.
1. I have only looked at nine players and there are certainly other players on the team. When Steve Novak, Gerald Green, and Aaron Brooks take the floor, the Rockets will be worse off. So this level of wins I am projecting without Yao might exaggerate the team’s performance.
2. Then again, if Mutombo returns to what he did last year the 49 win projection is too low. In other words, it’s possible for the Rockets can improve without Yao (which they did last year).
3. And this ignores the play of Luther Head. Head was above average last year in more minutes. Now that Wells is gone, Head might return to what he was in 2006-07.
Post-Season Success?
And now for the big story. Tracy McGrady has had a very good career. Before injuries began to diminish his production, T-Mac was every bit as good (and I have argued more productive) as Kobe Bryant. Despite this production, McGrady has never seen the second round of the NBA playoffs. Can this change this year?
The Rockets are currently in the midst of a 13 game winning streak. But when we look at the entire season we see a team with an efficiency differential (offensive efficiency minus defensive efficiency) of only 4.0. This mark is currently bested by six other teams in the Western Conference. In other words, the Rockets – given what they did across the entire season – are not likely to be favored in their first round match-up.
Although it’s possible that Houston can remain competitive without Yao, it doesn’t seem likely this team is going to be able to defeat one of the top seeds in the Western Conference in the first round. This was true before Yao was hurt. And it’s still true today.
So what does Yao’s injury mean for Houston? It’s possible that they won’t lose with any greater frequency. But now McGrady can offer a reason why (that doesn’t focus on McGrady) his team can’t get out of the first round again. In other words, Yao’s injury gives this team a ready-made excuse. And who said all injuries had to hurt?
– DJ
Our research on the NBA was summarized HERE.
The Technical Notes at wagesofwins.com provides substantially more information on the published research behind Wins Produced and Win Score
Wins Produced, Win Score, and PAWSmin are also discussed in the following posts:
Simple Models of Player Performance
What Wins Produced Says and What It Does Not Say
Introducing PAWSmin — and a Defense of Box Score Statistics
Finally, A Guide to Evaluating Models contains useful hints on how to interpret and evaluate statistical models.
Wages of Wins Journal 
Pete23
February 27, 2008
“When a player doesn’t get consistent minutes his per-minute performance can drop.”
Isn’t this a selection bias? Better players get more consistent minutes because of coaching decision. It’s not that more consistent minutes make better players.
dberri
February 27, 2008
Pete,
I agree that bad players don’t get consistent minutes. What I am referring to, though, is the observation that declining minutes seems to lead to declining per-minute production.
It could be the case that a coach sees that a player is worse so the minutes get cut. But I think that is not always the case. For example, David Lee is playing worse this year with less minutes. The same is true for Luther Head. And Bonzi Wells went from playing minutes two years ago (and playing well), to not playing much (and playing badly), to playing quite a bit again (and playing well). I don’t think it is the case that Wells went from good, bad, to good in his performance. I think it was the inconsistent minutes that led him to play worse last year.
grungedave
February 27, 2008
Check our schedule. It’s filled with softies. We will win 50 games and make the playoffs.
And *who* we play will determine whether we can win a round.
Alex
February 27, 2008
Great analysis. I do think we’ll make the playoffs, but you’re right in that we probably won’t make it past the first round.
I do think that you should take the last 25% of the season into more consideration ,because we’re better than even our record indicates, simply because we’re playing well now. So yeah I do think we deserve a little more credit, but as always your analysis is spot on. you’re book isn’t bad either :D:D:D
Andrew
February 27, 2008
Dave:
Would you be willing to do a comparison of Lebron and Kobe? Might be even more fun than Deron and Chris Paul.
Thanks,
Andrew
Tom Mandel
February 27, 2008
Realize that the Wizards were back-to-back, coming off a hard-fought road win against New Orleans. I watched the game last night, and they had literally nothing in their tank.
Still, it was great fun to watch Dikembe. He may be old, but he is still amazing!
Pete23
February 27, 2008
Andrew,
He might not be able to post about Kobe because it will crash the https://dberri.wordpress.com server as thousands of Kobe acolytes will flood the site with comments about how “Kobe is the best.”
dberri
February 27, 2008
Andrew and Pete23,
I think another Kobe post would be fun. It is amazing to see such devotion in fans of a basketball player. A post on why LeBron is better might allow them to express their emotions once again.
The rookie
February 28, 2008
Andrew, Pete23 and dberri,
Well why not a post about who is the best player of the 2004 draft (Carmelo, DWade, Bosh, LBJ23,Darko….) and maybe compare the 3 best players of this draft to KB24…Think that this one would be funny to read….
By the way I’m a DWade and LBJ23 fan.
Steve
March 13, 2008
.103, wow I cant believe TMac had that low of production until Yao got hurt…….. he used to be in the .300 + range with the Magic and had the highest PER in the Nba.
That is insane, he steps up with Yao out though, he just defer’s to get everyone going I guess. good thing we get to see the real tmac now, too bad it takes Yao getting hurt to see that. Tmac is a great player.
Steve
March 13, 2008
I think the Rockets wouldve got out of the first round with Yao this year and had a legit shot at winning the championship with their new coach and good supporting cast (First time a good supporting cast in the yao/tmac era was last year, and this years is much better).
Plus I saw Yao just flat-out dominate Duncan on the offensive end to the point that I hadnt seen since Shaq left for Miami, os that told me alot. AND the fact that McGrady was ripping it up while the Rockets started 7-1 and then he got hurt in the 9th game, and since he has came back for good at 100% health (instead of being under 100%, or in-and-out of the lineup, or just out injured) for the last time they have went about 27-3……… 34-5 with Tmac 100% healthy aint bad.
So yeah, TMac is only 28 years old and his back specialist did wonders for Roddick and now him, he should be in his prime right now for another 4 or 5 years and Yao is entering his prime at 27 years old, I could see them winning the ring next year in their 5th year together and 2nd year with a great supporting cast and 2nd year with a great coach.
Too bad though because I think they definitely wouldve made it past the 1st round this year if Yao and TMac were both heatlhy, and had a legit shot at making the finals……. so the championship shot is crushed with Yaos injury but its been remarkable what theyve done and I am very impressed with TMac making his teammates better and being unselfish and dominant like last year, and I am HOPING AND ROOTING FOR THE ROCKETS TO LAND NEW ORLEANS oR DENVER Or THE WARRIORS IN THE 1st rouND so they have a legit shot at making round 2. Im rooting for that, and im rooting for Tmac and the rockets (Even though Im a celtic fan).