The season is winding down and so our thoughts turn to the playoffs. Now we wish to know how each team will do in the NBA’s second season.
Forecasting the East is easy (so everyone should look like Erich Doerr). Whether we look at won-loss record or efficiency differential (offensive efficiency minus defensive efficiency) the Boston Celtics are the “strong” favorite in the East. Entering Wednesday night’s game, the Celtics had a 62-15 record and a differential of 11.2. Both marks lead the league (by a wide margin). Consequently, no matter how the non-Boston series are decided in the East, we still expect that whoever has to face Boston will lose. In other words, we should fully expect the Celtics to appear in the NBA Finals.
Forecasting the West
In the West the forecast is the much more difficult. Here is how these teams are seeded (won-loss record before Wednesday’s games in parenthesis):
1. New Orleans (54-23)
2. San Antonio (53-25)
3. LA Lakers (53-25)
4. Utah (52-26)
5. Houston (52-25)
6. Phoenix (52-26)
7. Dallas (49-29)
8. Denver or Golden State (47-31)
Now here is how these teams rank in terms of efficiency differential:
1. Utah (7.5)
2. LA Lakers (6.7)
3. New Orleans (5.6)
4. San Antonio (5.4)
5. Phoenix (5.1)
6. Dallas (5.0)
7. Houston (5.0)
8. Denver (3.7)
9. Golden State (2.5)
If efficiency differential predicts the outcome of each series, then here is how the Western Conference will unfold:
First Round
New Orleans over Denver or Golden State
San Antonio over Dallas
LA Lakers over Phoenix
Utah over Houston
Second Round
Utah over New Orleans
LA Lakers over San Antonio
Western Conference Final
Utah over LA Lakers
Trades and Injuries Make Forecasting the West Very Difficult
But wait a minute… these differentials are based on what the teams did the entire season. The rosters of these teams – because of injury and/or trades – have not remained the same the entire year. Consequently, the efficiency differential the teams have posted for the entire season may not reflect the quality of the team entering the post-season.
For example, the Suns with Shaquille O’Neal only have a differential of 3.5. In other words, Phoenix has been a worse team with Shaq (despite what they did to the Spurs on Wednesday night)
In contrast, Dallas with Jason Kidd has posted a 6.5 differential. If this mark captures the current quality of the Mavericks, then we would expect Dallas to defeat the Spurs in the first round. In other words, the number seven seed would be favored to defeat the second seed (and I doubt that has ever happened before in NBA history).
And then we have the Lakers. The Lakers were very good when they had Kobe Bryant and Andrew Bynum. After Bynum got hurt the team traded for Pau Gasol. Teaming Kobe with Gasol also resulted in a very good team (while Kobe without Bynum or Gasol is not a great team). What happens if Bynum comes back and the Lakers can put all three on the court at the same time? Will the Lakers then be better than the Jazz?
The problem with these questions is that we do not know if Bynum will come back (although I read a report that he might return this weekend). And we don’t know how he will play if he does return.
Okay, here is what I think we know right now. At the moment the Jazz have the best efficiency differential. So they should be the “weak” favorite in the West. If the Lakers get Bynum back the Lakers could become the “weak” favorite (or perhaps a “strong” favorite if Bynum is really as productive as he was earlier in the season).
Notice I used the word “weak” favorite. The difference between all these teams is so small, that no team in the West (except maybe the Lakers with everyone healthy) is a “strong” favorite to win anything. So we should not be surprised to see any team finally emerge.
What should surprise us is if any team that does emerge from the West actually defeats the Celtics in the Finals (except maybe the Lakers with a very healthy and very productive Bynum). The Celtics are most definitely a “strong” favorite to win the whole thing.
Forecasting the East
Okay, the Celtics are the clearly the favorite in the East. But who will the Celtics get to play (and defeat) on the way to the Finals?
Here is how each team in the East ranks in terms of efficiency differential (again, not including games from Wednesday night):
1. Boston (11.2)
2. Detroit (8.0)
3. Orland (4.9)
4. Toronto (2.7)
5. Philadelphia (0.8)
6. Washington (-0.2)
7. Cleveland (-0.6)
8. Atlanta (-1.6)
Given these marks, here is how each round should go down (given how the teams were seeded entering Wednesday night):
First Round
Boston over Atlanta
Detroit over Toronto
Orlando over Philadelphia
Washington over Cleveland???
Second Round
Boston over Washington (or Cleveland)
Detroit over Orlando
Eastern Conference Final
Boston over Detroit
Looking at efficiency differential, the only real question is Cleveland and Washington. Washington has a slight edge for the season. But Cleveland made a significant trade a few weeks ago, so their roster has changed substantially. And Washington gets Gilbert Arenas back. So that series is hard to forecast (I could be persuaded to take Cleveland, though).
Ultimately, though, it doesn’t make much difference. Unless the Hawks pull off the greatest upset in NBA history (and make no mistake that would be the greatest), the winner of the Cavaliers-Wizards series gets Boston. And neither Cleveland nor Washington should be expected to defeat Boston (and yes, I know Washington took 3 of 4 from Boston in the regular season. I still think Boston is the heavy favorite against the Wizards).
Getting Ahead of Ourselves
Let me close by noting that there are still about seven days worth of games left to be played. Since we don’t know the final seedings, any forecast is a bit premature. What I did wish to point out, though, was that when we finally see how these teams finish, forecasting the East will still be easy. And forecasting the mess in the West will still be messy.
– DJ
Wages of Wins Journal 
Tim
April 10, 2008
Are you making the same mistake as last year, and forgetting about home court advantage?
https://dberri.wordpress.com/2007/06/17/final-thoughts-on-the-nba-finals/
Key quote:
“But whereas I only considered efficiency differential, Kubatko considered both the quality of the two teams and home court advantage. And when you consider home court advantage we see that the Pistons should have been slight favorites to defeat the Bulls. So I failed because I ignored home-court advantage (which was a bit stupid on my part). ”
How much does home court advantage help New Orleans against Utah, for example?
And by the way, is there another True Hoop stat geek smackdown this year? Are you going to compete? If so, remember to account for home court advantage!
Rashad
April 10, 2008
Could you do an analysis like this for past playoffs, and then compare them to the results. I wonder how well efficiency differential works in the shorter format of the playoffs?
For example, did the Lakers have the best efficiency differential in all three of their championships? When have inferior teams won the championship? What was the biggest efficiency differential upset?
stephanie
April 10, 2008
Minor error: “And we don’t know how we will play if he does return.” Unless you work for the Lakers or are a really big fan that doesn’t read right.
Just last year Cleveland > Detroit and Golden State > Dallas, both major upsets. I’m wondering, if one goes through the past 28 or so years of NBA history using the same methods you use here how often do the playoff predictions on paper line up with what actually happened?
Costa
April 10, 2008
I would think the differentials are close enough that home court should push Cleveland back ahead of Washington, as well as neutralize Dallas’ potential in upsetting San Antonio.
This of course assumes the matchups remain as they, which is far from likely with the bottom of the East and middle of the West being so bunched up.
ilikeflowers
April 10, 2008
Statistically, is there a home court advantage in the playoffs? If so how much is it worth in terms of offensive and defensive efficiency?
Todd
April 10, 2008
I was just curious why scoring differential is measured without taking into account game pace. I just did a few quick calculations, and found that if you measure efficiency differential as points scored per point given up, Houston jumps to fourth in the Western conference. It seems to me that this would be a more accurate measure.
Tball
April 10, 2008
Todd,
Points scored per point surrendered isn’t game pace. Game pace would be points scored per possession and points surrendered per possession. The ‘per possession’ being game pace.
Bill James’ Pythagorean Theorem for expected baseball winning percentages attempts to value teams on a runs scored per runs allowed basis (loosely interpreted), which ends up giving more weight to defense than offense.
Not sure your measure or James’ (as applied to basketball) is more accurate than Berri’s, but the result is different.
Kalyan
April 10, 2008
I don’t think you can compare Boston’s efficiency differential with that of a team in the West. They don’t play the same teams while accumulating that “efficiency differential” do they?
andrew
April 10, 2008
58 games are common. The bottom east teams are as bad as the bottom west teams. The top 3 east teams compare favorably to the west top 3. It’s the middle where it gets ticky. Still, the issue of conference disparity is largely a myth.
Sam Cohen
April 10, 2008
Any thoughts on how the changed minutes distribution that occurs in the playoffs will impact efficiency differential? For the most part, I assume it all basically washes out (since the best players _all_ see their minutes rise), but I’d think there are some instances where it could make a difference.
For instance, Duncan plays slightly under 35 minutes a game but I recall him playing 40 minutes a game in the playoffs. Ginobili plays just over 31 minutes per game, but I imagine that’ll bump up about 5 minutes per game in the playoffs. On the other hand, Kobe plays more than 39 minutes per game already for the Lakers, so I’m not sure how many more minutes per game he’ll really be able to play. Similarly, Odom plays more than 38 minutes per game, so I doubt he’ll be able to pick up that many more minutes in the postseason. So while the Lakers are favored over the Spurs by efficiency differential, does that advantage remain once “playoff minutes” are taken into account?
Todd
April 11, 2008
Where can we find stats for efficiency differential at home and on the road. I think it would be interesting to see where teams end up compared to each other if we took this into account for each team. I would guess, based solely on their record, that Utah might become an even bigger favorite in the first round, but perhaps one of the worst teams of the 8 in the west in a series where they don’t have home court advantage.
GoldShammGold
April 11, 2008
Celts haven’t played together in a playoff series. This isn’t like, say, Lakers — Kobe’s played with Fish, Odom, Luke….just never with Gasol or (really) Bynum.
No 1 Celt player has EVER been on same team as another Celt during a playoff game. Rondo, Perk, Powe, Baby have never played one. KG, Posey, Cassell, Jesus, House — all new to Boston.
Have you examined any other “sudden collection of veteran talent” who were, by virtue of record, playoff favorites….and nonetheless a playoff team for the first time?
Scott
April 12, 2008
What is the efficiency differential of Boston versus Western Conference teams? Playing against to many low-efficiency teams would inflate their differential relative to a west coast playoff team.
Todd
April 12, 2008
Scott,
I don’t know where to find that stat, but I do know that Boston was 25-5 against the west and 38-11 against the East. I also know that their scoring average against the west was 102.3 and was only 99.4 against the East, so my guess is they actually had a better efficiency differential against the West.
jamesgrahamrealtor
April 15, 2008
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