Last summer the sportswriters named Monta Ellis as the Most Improved Player of 2006-07. In response to this selection, I wrote the following column:
The title pretty much summarizes the argument. If you look at the numbers – and I mean at more than points scored per game – it would be hard to argue that Ellis was the most improved player last year. Of the seven candidates I examined last summer, Ellis was the least improved.
What about this year?
Table One reviews the first three years of Monta Ellis playing NBA basketball.
Table One: The First Three Years of Monta Ellis
When we look at Ellis in year one and year two, we see modest improvement overall. Much of this was driven by increases in shooting efficiency. With respect to rebounds, turnovers, and personal fouls, Ellis actually declined. Despite these numbers, though, Ellis still took home the MIP award.
One could argue that sportswriters don’t look at all these numbers in handing out these awards. But perhaps that view is too harsh. Maybe the sportswriters are just looking into the future.
From year two to year three, Ellis has taken a major step forward. Again, shooting efficiency has improved. But he has also improved with respect to rebounds, turnovers, and personal fouls. When we turn to Win Score per 48 minutes [note: this is not WP48, but the simple model per 48 minutes], we see that Ellis has improved from a mark of 5.5 – which is below average for a shooting guard – to 9.8. In other words, Win Score per 48 minutes has increased by 4.3.
The season just ended last night, so I have not had time to look at every player (hope to get to that this weekend). But let’s compare the leap we see in Monta’s numbers to what we see from Hedo Turkoglu.
Why Turkoglu? ESPN.com asked 20 NBA experts to choose the Most Improved Player in the NBA. Nine different players received one vote, but only Hedo Turkoglu was named by more than three experts. In all, Turkoglu received nine votes. So, one could argue that Turkoglu is the front-runner for this award.
Turkoglu’s numbers this year are a step up from what he did in 2006-07. With respect to everything except steals and turnovers, Turkoglu offered more in 2007-08. One should note, though, that 2006-07 was Turkoglu’s worst season as a pro. If we compare Turkoglu in 2007-08 to his career numbers prior to this season, we don’t see as big a leap. Whereas his Win Score per 48 minutes increased by 3.5 from 2006-07 to this season, the difference is only 2.1 when you compare Turkoglu this year to his prior career number (and the leap is only 1.8 if you excluded 06-07 from his prior career number).
Yes, Turkoglu has improved. But is he the Most Improved?
Again, I haven’t looked at everyone. But I think you could argue that Monta Ellis has improved more than Turkoglu. Certainly Ellis has taken a bigger leap forward in Win Score per 48 minutes. And yet Ellis has received no support in voting for this award.
Of course, I think Ellis is not actually eligible. At least, it would be odd to say that the same player is the Most Improved two years in a row.
I should close by emphasizing that the numbers do not say Ellis is the MIP two years in a row. The numbers indicate he was not the MIP last year. But in 2007-08, he might have a legitimate case (then again, maybe when I look at all the eligible players the case might fall apart). Unfortunately the sportswriters – who must have known Ellis was about to take a major leap forward (note sarcacm) – can’t really give him the award this year. I wonder how much it would cost, though, to scratch out 2006-07 and put 2007-08 on his trophy from last year?
– DJ
Our research on the NBA was summarized HERE.
The Technical Notes at wagesofwins.com provides substantially more information on the published research behind Wins Produced and Win Score
Wins Produced, Win Score, and PAWSmin are also discussed in the following posts:
Simple Models of Player Performance
What Wins Produced Says and What It Does Not Say
Introducing PAWSmin — and a Defense of Box Score Statistics
Finally, A Guide to Evaluating Models contains useful hints on how to interpret and evaluate statistical models.
Wages of Wins Journal 
Alex
April 17, 2008
I’m looking forward to what you find in the end for the rookies.. I can’t believe Durant is going to get the award. I’m going with Carl Landry, or Jamario Moon since Landry only played in half the games.
Anon
April 17, 2008
Horford should win rookie of the year easily. He won’t, but he should. I do fully expect durant to pick up right where he left off this season however, and average 40 ppg on 70% shooting next year.
For most improved, bynum would seem to be a prime candidate if he hadn’t gotten injured. Kendrick Perkins improved a lot as well. Adam Morrison was considerably more productive and valuable to his team this year than last as well.
Joe
April 18, 2008
Yeah I think Morrison has to take MIP this year. Isn’t he up something like 8?
dberri
April 18, 2008
Morrison for MIP? Very funny. Kind of mean, but very funny.
Costa
April 18, 2008
From the little I can remember from the WP roundups Dave produced over the course of the year compared to those from last year, these are some of the names I expect to appear among the top candidates after he does the full roundup:
Andrew Bynum (assuming per-minute numbers are looked at), Chris Paul, Jose Calderon, Chauncey Billups, Chris Kaman, Mike Dunleavy, Fabricio Oberto.
Of those names, Calderon and Kaman are the only ones I’ve heard of as potentially getting votes. Although he’s improved, Calderon was already very good, so I think Chris Kaman would be my pick.
Jason
April 19, 2008
Ellis has improved significantly, largely by playing within himself. He no longer tries to force the tricky pass, no longer tries shoot beyond his range, focusing instead on getting shots as close in as possible. This doesn’t explain his improved rebounding though. Perhaps he’s just figured out what matters most to success and has started playing accordingly.
An interesting thing about Ellis is that while he’s sured up much of his game, he’s been more widely criticized for his defense. When he came into the league, I saw praise for his intensity and the way he attacked opposing guards. Now there’s more about his inability to fight through a screen. I wonder how much of this is a change in his game and how much is perception. There’s a phenomenon in baseball dubbed “Nichol’s law”, where the defensive reputation of a catcher varies inversely with his offensive abilities. I suspect there’s something similar in basketball among a wide number of players.
To read message boards, wholly 80% of players in the NBA are below average defenders. Either those remaining 20% are very, very good and we’ve got a distribution that falls far from normal or perception and reality are not terribly well matched.