Imagine taking a test where you are
a. asked questions that are not over the material you studied
b. answers must be provided the moment after the question is asked
c. if you give the “wrong” answer, many people find out (and some of these people may not say nice things about you).
My sense is that my students wouldn’t be too anxious to take such a test. But each time I am interviewed on TV or radio, this is very much the test I take. Although I am given some idea about the questions ahead of time, there always seems to be a surprise. Despite such surprises, answers must be provided the moment the question is asked. In other words, dead air is the worst possible answer. Finally, you know when you are answering the question that people are listening. And if you give the “wrong” answer, some of these people are going to let you know.
Taking the Pistonscast Test
My latest test was written by John W. Davis and Deven Khrucell of Pistonscast. A few weeks ago I made my first appearance on the Pistons podcast, discussing the greatness that is Amir Johnson and the productivity of Detroit’s bench. This week the topic was Rodney Stuckey.
The following link will take you to the broadcast (the link seems slow but I think it works):
OR
As you will hear, John and Deven believe that Stuckey – the 15th player taken in the 2007 draft – had a very good rookie year. John asked me to look at the numbers (which you can see on their website), and I think I agree (sort of).
It’s important to remember that John, Deven, and I are fans of the Pistons. So our take on Stuckey is biased. Still, I think you can argue that no point guard taken in the first round offered substantially more than Stuckey. And as I note in the podcast, Stuckey got better as the year progressed. Meanwhile – if you ignore Durant’s last game (which hadn’t been played when we recorded this broadcast) – Durant offered less in April then he did in March.
Discussing the greatness of Stuckey was not the only topic we covered. John and Deven also asked about
– the drafting ability of Joe Dumars
– the value of statistics vs. a gut feeling
– Isiah Thomas vs. Allen Iverson
– the importance of the last second shot
– the value of Michael Beasley and Derrick Rose
I think I offered reasonable thoughts on all these topics.
One Wrong Answer
But then towards the end of the interview my performance slipped. It was then that I was asked about the Celtics and Pistons. Specifically, which team did I think was better? Now as a Pistons fan, I would like to say Detroit. But let’s face it, the numbers are pretty clear on this topic. Boston clearly has a better team. In fact, Boston has one of the best teams we have seen in the history of the NBA (I will write more on this next week).
Of course, if you are talking Pistons with fans of Detroit, saying that Boston is better than Detroit is clearly the “wrong” answer. Not surprisingly, I got some deserved grief for my response.
Despite my “wrong” answer on the last question, I had a great deal of fun taking the test. It’s certainly great talking basketball with fellow Pistons fans. And hopefully the Pistons will defy those damn numbers and make us fans happy in 2008.
– DJ
Our research on the NBA was summarized HERE.
The Technical Notes at wagesofwins.com provides substantially more information on the published research behind Wins Produced and Win Score
Wins Produced, Win Score, and PAWSmin are also discussed in the following posts:
Simple Models of Player Performance
What Wins Produced Says and What It Does Not Say
Introducing PAWSmin — and a Defense of Box Score Statistics
Finally, A Guide to Evaluating Models contains useful hints on how to interpret and evaluate statistical models.
Wages of Wins Journal 
William
April 18, 2008
“…Durant offered less in April then he did in May.”
Umm, March? Or was this was a dig at him for producing negative wins (since he’ll produce zero in May by not playing)?
The C’s are better, by a lot… but that doesn’t mean the Pistons “can’t” win. As a C’s fan, I want to see multiple competitive series almost as much as I want to win regardless of opponent. A championship would be more meaningful if the path is Atlanta, WAS/CLE (actually this one doesn’t matter), Detroit, Lakers/Spurs than Atlanta, WAS/CLE, Toronto (if TJ Ford is the starter), Denver.
dberri
April 18, 2008
William,
Thanks. I changed May to March (this is what happens when you try and write quickly).
And you are right, the Pistons can win. They just shouldn’t be expected to win.
Animal
April 18, 2008
Dr. Berri, is Erich going to do predictions for the NBA playoffs? His predictions for the NCAA tournament were clairvoyant!!
John W. Davis
April 18, 2008
Go Pistons!!! We can take the Celtics and any other team.