Back in January – before the Rockets won 22 consecutive games – people were questioning the value of Tracy McGrady. People at that time were harping on that fact that with McGrady the Rockets seemed unable to get out of the first round of the playoffs. And looking back over his entire career, critics noted that McGrady’s teams never got out of the first round.
Looking at the data, though, it appears the playoff troubles of McGrady’s teams were not really about T-Mac. Basically, McGrady has often had less than stellar teammates. When you separate McGrady from his teammates — and that is what the statistics are supposed to do – McGrady appears to be a very productive player. In fact, the numbers suggested that McGrady – across his career – was a more productive player than Kobe Bryant (the player some – not many, but some — believe is the greatest to ever play basketball).
A few weeks after I posted my comment the Rockets embarked on that 22 game winning streak. Although T-Mac had little to do with this streak (noted here), people’s evaluation of his skills suddenly changed.
Like all good things, the Rockets streak eventually ended. We are now a few weeks past the streak, and the Rockets are once again (despite Thursday night’s win) looking at a first round failure. And again, people are questioning McGrady. In defending himself, T-Mac n0ted that he raises his game in the playoffs. Yes, according to T-Mac, he is a better player in the playoffs. When I heard this I thought, “hmmm… not sure I buy that story.”
T-Mac and Kobe in the Playoffs
As we often do here, let’s go to the numbers.
Table One: T-Mac in the Playoffs
If all that matters is scoring, T-Mac is right. For his career he has scored more in the playoffs than he has in the corresponding regular season. Wins, though, are about more than scoring. Shooting efficiency, rebounds, steals, and turnovers all matter. And with respect to all these factors, McGrady offers less (or in the case of turnovers, more) in the playoffs. Consequently his post-season Win Score, relative to what we see in the regular season, consistently declines.
What if we look at Kobe?
Table Two: Kobe in the Playoffs
Unlike T-Mac, Kobe scores less in the post-season. Like McGrady, though,Kobe also offers less shooting efficiency, rebounds, and steals. And that means – again, like T-Mac – Kobe’s post-season Win Score is not as good as what he offers in the regular season.
From The Wages of Wins
Readers of The Wages of Wins – specifically Chapter Eight – will remember that Kobe and T-Mac are not unique. Players like Michael Jordan, Larry Bird, and Shaquille O’Neal all tended to offer less in the post-season.
As we note in the book
Of course one might expect performance to decline in the playoffs. Teams play better defense and at a slower pace in the post-season. So naturally players accumulate fewer points, rebounds, etc. To see how big a decline we can expect, we collected data for every player in every post-season from 1995 to 2005. On average, Win Score declines by .03.
Checking the data (it has been a few years since we did this analysis so I am not positive I am looking at the right spreadsheet), the decline appears to be 0.025, or 1.20 over 48 minutes.
When we look at both T-Mac and Kobe, we see larger declines. In other words, they play worse than expected. Again, though, this is the same story we see for other major stars. For example, with Chicago (in other words, ignoring the Washington years), Jordan posted an average Win Score per 48 minutes of 14.39. In the playoffs his mark was 12.26. Now both marks are better than anything Kobe has done in the regular season or playoffs (prior to this year). In other words, average MJ beats Kobe at his best. That being said, post-season MJ – which is still phenomenal – is not as good as regular season MJ. And that difference is bigger than the average decline we tend to see between regular and post-season performance.
The Playoff Story
So here is The Wages of Wins playoff story.
1. T-Mac claims he plays better in the playoffs. When we look at all the numbers, we see that is not true.
2. What we see with T-Mac is not surprising. Because the competition is better in the playoffs, players tend to offer less.
3. Star players tend to offer even less than the average player. I suspect this is because star players tend to focus even more on scoring (and less on other stuff). Because scoring is more difficult in the playoffs, shooting efficiencies decline. Hence overall productivity goes down.
4. All that being said, it is still the case that the best players in the regular season tend to be the best players in the playoffs. In fact, as noted in The Wages of Wins, the consistency between regular season and playoff performance is about the same as we see between successive regular seasons. So although Jordan offered less in the playoffs, he was still generally the best player on the court.
Back to T-Mac and Kobe
Let me close by re-iterating what I said earlier in the year. When we compare the careers of McGrady and Bryant, T-Mac appears to be the slightly more productive player. That point was made in the column — T-Mac and Kobe – and corresponding tables.
Table Three: Comparing the Per-Minute Performance of McGrady and Kobe
Table Four: Comparing the Careers of McGrady and Kobe
Table Five: What If McGrady and Kobe Switched Teammates?
If we update the story for 2007-08 – noted back in March– Kobe is the more productive player today. Kobe’s Win Score per 48 minutes was 12.03 in the 07-08 regular season. T-Mac only offered 6.90.
So far in the playoffs, both players are contradicting the story of this column. Kobe has a Win Score per 48 minutes of 15.19 while McGrady has a mark of 7.13. Of course, Kobe has only played two games and T-Mac has only appeared in three.
In these very small samples, each player has managed to raise their level of play from the regular season. Of course, each player’s past performance – and what we see from most NBA players – suggests that what we have seen so far will not continue as the playoffs progress.
– DJ
Our research on the NBA was summarized HERE.
The Technical Notes at wagesofwins.com provides substantially more information on the published research behind Wins Produced and Win Score
Wins Produced, Win Score, and PAWSmin are also discussed in the following posts:
Simple Models of Player Performance
What Wins Produced Says and What It Does Not Say
Introducing PAWSmin — and a Defense of Box Score Statistics
Finally, A Guide to Evaluating Models contains useful hints on how to interpret and evaluate statistical models.
Wages of Wins Journal 
CP
April 25, 2008
You mention “Because the competition is better in the playoffs, players tend to offer less.” Do players offer less during the regular season against better competition as well? Put another way, if you excluded bad teams (maybe non-playoff teams) would a player’s regular season and playoff performance be closer in line?
Westy
April 25, 2008
One statement you made I find interesting:
“I suspect this is because star players tend to focus even more on scoring (and less on other stuff). Because scoring is more difficult in the playoffs, shooting efficiencies decline. Hence overall productivity goes down.”
It seems that elsewhere you have stated that shot creation is not difficult or at least not worth rewarding for. If you’re now saying that it becomes ‘more’ difficult, that would imply to me that it is regarded somewhat difficult during the regular season.
Regardless, this is not reflected in the formula. As I know you are painfully aware, the lack of reward for shot creation for high usage players who see the opponents’ best defense has been cited as a shortcoming of your formula. Giving slight credit to players whose shots generate an offensive rebound would help reflect this.
dberri
April 25, 2008
Westy,
No, you are not reading what I say correctly. There are better defenses in the playoffs. Hence getting the ball to go in the basket is more difficult. This is not really about shot creation.
If you could go read the Guide to Models (click on link above), it might help you understand how models are put together.
GoldShammGold
April 25, 2008
Bill Belichick has a playoff strategy: Take away the opposing team’s best threat.
Isn’t it possible that NBA coaches do that? They change their approach during the playoffs?
Lebron doesn’t see many triple teams during the season, but I’ve seen that against the Wiz.
I think the answer lies in part with the comment above. Playoffs combine 3 effects: defense is better because players exert more effort; it’s harder to score b/c officials permit more physical plan, and b/c teams become familiar.
That means shot creation is tougher, which perhaps leads to star players rationally trying to create more shots?
Perhaps that could be tested by examining what happens in playoff games where the stars are out…ie, minus any shot-creating star on the team, and therefore forcing the Dikembes, Battiers, and Scolas to jack up more shots, what happens?
Fred Flintstone
April 25, 2008
“Bill Belichick has a playoff strategy: Take away the opposing team’s best threat. ”
But he wouldn’t employ this strategy in the regular season?
Westy
April 25, 2008
There are better defenses in the playoffs. Hence getting the ball to go in the basket is more difficult. This is not really about shot creation.
But I think they are definitely related. Shot creation is about creating a ‘good’ shot. You are exactly right that good defense means it’s harder to create a ‘good’ shot, ie. one that will go in.
That there are fewer shots that go in means that less good shots are being taken, which is directly a result of the better defense.
That it is tougher for a star player who is facing good defense to create a good shot than a mediocre player who is facing easy defense is very related. If a star player still shoots as well as the mediocre player, that’s a testament to how much better they are.
andrew g
April 25, 2008
You haven’t seen many Cavs games, then. He gets a lot of double- and triple-teams.
Jacob Rosen
April 25, 2008
There are many, many people who believe that Kobe Bryant is the best player since Michael Jordan. All season, I have been reporting that LeBron James and Chris Paul are having historically better seasons than Bryant, but many people feel that the media does not give Kobe enough credit for winning three championships; that Kobe is treated unfairly because of the old rape charge; that Kobe is treated unfairly because he is not significantly smaller than LeBron.
I understand that Kobe has not had very much success in the playoffs personally, and that he is not as gifted as an overall player as LeBron or MJ. How would you point out that Kobe in his natural position is not as good as LeBron, MJ or even Chris Paul in theirs? How would you argue to a less-than-avid NBA fan, that just because Kobe has won three championships, he is really not that good?
Faizan Hassan
April 25, 2008
Jacob,
I think part of the reason the average NBA fan is so adamant about believing Kobe is the best player in the NBA is because it is repeated by analysts and commentators ad nauseam.
Raoul Duke
April 25, 2008
KOBE BRYANT IS TEH BEST PLAEYRE IN THE NABBBAAEBAAAAABA!!211!!!!21!!!!1
Tommy_Grand
April 25, 2008
Jacob you should begin by noting that Kobe is a very, very, very good player. That much is obvious. He has three rings. He is killing Denver & I recall he him scoring 84 one time.
The only issue for debate is — does Kobe deserve the MVP this season, or is he merely among the 4-5 best players on earth, despite his injuries.
I wouldn’t give him the MVP. I think CP3 gets it this year. But it’s close. Kobe, Lebron, and KG are all in the conversation. + Maybe Dwight Howard.
pablasso
April 26, 2008
Enlighten us with your wisdom. Who is the best player of all time?
Tim
April 27, 2008
Jacob, besides pointing the people you want to convince to the columns Berri has written about Kobe, you may want to point to the Lakers’ record when both Gasol and Bynum were out. It’s not great. Nor was it great last year, or the year before that, or the year before that, or any year since Shaq left. If Kobe wins the MVP this year, it won’t be a product of his play, but of Bynum’s and Gasol’s.
I think most people would agree that Lebron had a statistically better year than Kobe, but they’re not impressed with the Cavaliers’ record, so they won’t give the award to Lebron. The knock on Garnett is his ability to “close the deal” in the fourth quarter — a vastly overrated ability, from what I understand, but ever since Jordan people have looked for an MVP to have the ball in his hands with the game on the line. The knock on Paul is his defense.