Much has been said about Allen Iverson and Carmelo Anthony in this forum. Given the story told – Melo and The Answer are overrated – one might expect me to note that the 76ers without Iverson have won more playoffs games the past two seasons than the Nuggets have won with The Answer. But that’s not the purpose of this column. This column is being offered as a beacon of hope… to Denver fans. Yes, I think the Nuggets with Melo and Iverson have a reason to be hopeful about 2008-09.
Reviewing 2007-08
This story begins with Table One, which reports what the Nuggets did in 2007-08 and what this team could have expected given what their players did in 2006-07.
Table One: The Denver Nuggets in 2007-08
Given what these players did last season the Nuggets should have only expected 33 wins. The team, though, won 50 games. The team’s Wins Produced summed to 51.0. All in all, there was some improvement in Denver.
One could argue – contrary to what we see in Denver’s sports media – that George Karl must have done an excellent job of coaching. Although Karl’s influence cannot be discounted, we can assign some responsibility to the players. Specifically, we can actually go through the individual player’s numbers and see which players improved.
Although Denver employed 17 players this past season, nearly 17 of the 18.2 additional Wins Produced can be tied to only four players: Allen Iverson, Carmelo Anthony, Anthony Carter, and Linas Kleiza. In other words, most players didn’t change at all. But what of the four that did?
Allen Iverson’s performance returned to essentially what we saw in 2005-06. So Iverson playing a better (and I mean just better, he is still not one of the game’s best) is not a surprise.
Kleiza was in the negative range his first two seasons. He’s still below average, but he has managed to raise his production into the positive range. Although this small leap was unexpected, it’s not surprising to see a young player get a better.
Unlike Kleiza, Carter is not a young player. This past season was his 9th year in the league, and he had never been above average in any previous campaign. Of course, his minutes have been quite erratic(less than 1,500 minutes over the past four seasons). So perhaps what we are seeing is just the benefit of Carter getting to play.
The Surprising Melo
And then we have Melo. Anthony had played more than 11,000 minutes before the start of the 2007-08 season. Despite lofty scoring totals, his total production had frequently hovered around the average mark. In other words, Melo was not quite the star people believed him to be.
But as I said at the start of the season, despite all his experience (which again didn’t result in an outstanding level of productivity), Anthony is still only 23 years of age. Had he stayed at Syracuse (where he put up some good numbers) for all four seasons, the 2007-08 season would only be his second year in the league. So maybe we should not be surprised to see such improvement.
Okay, let’s be serious. We should be surprised. Just take a look at these numbers.
Table Two: The First Five Years of Melo
Anthony was below average his first two seasons. Then in year three and four his numbers managed to creep above the average mark.
For year five – this last campaign – Table Two reports both the first half and second half numbers. In the first half we see another small leap forward. Although his shooting efficiency was a bit off his 2006-07 pace, Melo was managing to grab a few more rebounds.
And then we have the second half of 2007-08. Suddenly Melo is hitting his shots. He is also rebounding. Plus his turnovers are down.
When we put it all together, we see a player who transformed from being little better than average in the first half of 07-08, to a player that was finally fulfilling the vision people had after looking at his Syracuse numbers. In sum, if the second half is not a mirage, Melo might finally be a star.
Hope in Denver
And that should give Denver fans hope.
And here is more hope. When we look at the Nuggets in 2006-07 we see that Nene Hilario was an above average big man. But Nene only managed to play 266 minutes in 2007-08. If he can be healthy and productive in 2008-09, the Nuggets can put the following line-up on the floor:
PG: Anthony Carter [above average in 2007-08]
SG: Allen Iverson [above average in 2007-08]
SF: Carmelo Anthony [well above average in second half of 2007-08]
PF: Nene Hilario [above average in 2006-07]
C: Marcus Camby [one of the five most productive players in 2007-08].
These five players – given what they did in the time frame listed above – would combine to produce 54 wins next season. Yes, without getting much of a contribution from Kenyon Martin or J.R. Smith (two players who can be just below average), the Nuggets could join the Western Conference elite in 2008-09.
A Zen-Like Vision for Denver
The vision I laid forth assumes Denver does basically nothing this off-season. And that’s going to be hard to do. Carmelo Anthony – like Tracy McGrady – has never won a playoff series. Plus, Melo and the Nuggets exited the 2008 playoffs without winning a game. So it seems clear to some that something must be done.
But I don’t that it’s that clear. We basically have two samples. In the playoffs Melo and Iverson were below average (as was everyone else on the Nuggets not named Camby, Kleiza, or J.R. Smith). But in the regular season, this team won 50 games and showed it was just a shade below the top teams in the West. The playoff sample is only four games, or less than 5% the sample we see in the regular season. Given the size of the playoff sample, I think it should be heavily discounted.
This leaves us the regular season and the argument advanced above. If Melo’s second half performance is a good representation of what he will do next year (and that is a big IF), and Nene can be healthy and productive, this team will improve in 2008-09. And that means the Nuggets will be true contenders.
Of course, if the Nuggets do something silly – like get rid of Marcus Camby – then Denver is probably going to take a step back next season.
So that’s my story. If Denver does nothing, I think they can make progress. If they try and make “progress”, Denver will probably slide back. In sum, Denver is facing a “moment of zen.” Do nothing and thrive. Do something and slide (or some such “zen-like” statement).
– DJ
Our research on the NBA was summarized HERE.
The Technical Notes at wagesofwins.com provides substantially more information on the published research behind Wins Produced and Win Score
Wins Produced, Win Score, and PAWSmin are also discussed in the following posts:
Simple Models of Player Performance
What Wins Produced Says and What It Does Not Say
Introducing PAWSmin — and a Defense of Box Score Statistics
Finally, A Guide to Evaluating Models contains useful hints on how to interpret and evaluate statistical models.
Wages of Wins Journal 
Tony Cohen
April 30, 2008
No, they should do something. What they should do is find a team, and there are plenty out there, that overvalue scoring, and move Melo or Iverson. Of course, moving them should only be done if some other team hears the word ‘star’, and gets those in his eyes, and makes a swap and gives up a more productive but less ‘superstar-ish’ player.
In addition, given the number of big teams (Dallas, Suns, Denver, Golden State) who were solid sides but finished poorly, there may be a unique market for good players moving, irrespective of absolute value, under the notion that ‘something has to be done’.
From a GM’s POV, getting a ‘superstar’ and giving up solid guys that are effectively better may be just the thing to save a job….
antonio
April 30, 2008
i have asked this a few times recently and have yet to get a response, but what do you do with a player like iverson? He starts as a shooting guard but also plays a fair amount of point guard for this team. So what kind of position adjustment is used for Iverson?
David
April 30, 2008
You know what I can’t stand about stats people like this website, is they act like we don’t watch these games with our own two eyes. Like we don’t consistently see that Camby makes often dangerous and risky blocked shots and is a poor offensive rebounder.
Secondly, when dealing with human beings and stats there must always be some form of percent error, which of course this guy has refused to made known.
Westy
April 30, 2008
Interesting. It makes sense. Melo unfortunately also has some other issues going on. If he can overcome those, he certainly would seem to have the potential to keep improving.
It’s probably worth noting too that not only did Denver have a better record than Philadelphia, but their playoff opponent was a much stiffer test.
reservoirgod
April 30, 2008
This was VERY interesting analysis. Have you ever seen other players sustain their 2nd half improvement into a full season?
Steve
May 1, 2008
“Do nothing and thrive. Do something and slide”
Hmm, seems more Taoist than Zen.
WWYS (What would Yoda say?) “Do, not-do, same thing.”
However, you are saying there IS a difference, an opposition more Taoist in approach.
I’m just sayin’.
Lang
May 1, 2008
Regular season they might improve some if they “do nothing”.
They should not do something “stupid”.
But I agree with Tony that they should try to do something smart.
Give away Camby? No but he only improves team defense on/off by 1 pt and had an adjusted +/- of just 1 as well so he isn’t untouchable if the right offer was made especially in a package deal though he is a piece they probably should retain more than others, especially if they still try to contend short-term.
I do not see current Nuggets getting out of 2nd round with Iverson / Anthony. Re-signing Iverson to a big contract would be absurd. I do not see them doing so with just Anthony, post Iverson either if they get nothing when he walks away. They need to make a move, a good move.
Personally I’d trade both Iverson and Anthony if I got pretty good offers that fit a good team design and the coach. And more. In a heartbeat. This team has peaked and the peak is not to the level of the goal and team salary. If they truly want a championship and that is the total focus they need major changes.
Lang
May 1, 2008
If they stay the same it is almost entirely a bet on Nene as differencemaker. He played pretty well in 06-07. I am skeptical on depending on him but that’s a management group call.
Lang
May 1, 2008
If they can’t trade Martin injecting more Nene almost certainly means less or no Najera and could be close to a wash as he was 2nd best on team +/- on/off.
Lang
May 1, 2008
Iverson played a little better with Nene vs not last season, Anthony a little worse. Maybe they can find a bigger synergy in the future but it wasn’t there previously.
John Park Williams
May 1, 2008
Marcus Camby one of the 5 most productive player in 07-08?? Are you freaking kidding me? How can I possibly take your website seriously when you make such a claim? Did you see Pau Gasol in the series? Dunk after dunk after dunk. And I know what you will say, that Camby had to help out on Kobe and yada yada yada, but if you watch those games closely, you’ll notice that 90% of the time Camby is all too eager to step up and try and make the specatacular block on Kobe just to leave Gasol wide open underneath the basket.
Or just think back to last season, when Robert Horry buried the Nuggets with a three out of the corner. It was the same night Camby had just been named Defensive Player of the Year. Sure enough, it was Camby who left the lethal Horry wide open in the corner for the win, because Camby was obsessed with making the game saving block on Ginobili.
Camby has always been worthless on offense. In the Lakers series, he had twice as many turnovers as he did made field goals!!! He is not an imposing big man. He gets all his stats from being overaggresive, which costs his team in the end.
JTapp
May 1, 2008
What about regression to the mean for the team and particular guys like Carmelo Anthony? I wouldn’t be so hopeful if I were a Nugget fan.
Kieran
May 1, 2008
I agree that Iverson is overrated, but my biggest complaint about your “wages of wins” model is that it doesn’t take into account player combinations. If you look at the top player +/- combinations for the Nuggets, Anthony Carter wasn’t in the top 5. That’s because having two sub 6-foot guards in the same line-up creates disastrous defensive match-ups against a team like the Lakers, where you have 4 guys over 6′ 6” in the starting line-up. I think the reason that guys such as Marcus Camby and Ben Wallace fit so well into your model is because they tend teams tend to overestimate the value of inefficient scorers. However, if teams began to overweight efficient rebounders and massively inefficient scorers over semi-inefficient scorers who don’t rebound quite as well, the opposite would hold true.
kenoshakid
May 1, 2008
I haven’t dove into the numbers too much, but the notion that the nuggets should have won 33 games this year is absurd on its face and tells you there is something severely wrong with your methodology. They haven’t won less than 42 games in the previous 4 seasons and had more talent than any of those teams.
Jacob Rosen
May 1, 2008
Why were the Lakers able to dominate this team four games in a row? I saw game four, and it seemed like this team really did quit like Carmelo said they did in game three. Compared to the bright futures of Golden State and Phoenix, not too mention the very long-term potential of Portland and Seattle, I think Denver is not in that great of a position.
They barely made it into the playoffs, and advanced only to be humiliated by the Lakers. Kobe played the most impressive playoff series of his career, Gasol and Odom went nuts, and the Nuggets had no drive.
Lang
May 1, 2008
Nuggets were 12-23 against top 10 teams, slightly worse than the year before with Nene. 6th best home record in regular season taking advantage of altitude, high pace and season grind. Right smack at average on the road. They are an 8th seed. To be more they need better focus and chemistry. It could happen but I’d bet on a lot of other teams before them.
Lang
May 1, 2008
Iverson played together with Anthony for over 2500 of his 3400 minutes (74%). They won 56% of that time together per game according to 82games.com.
What about the 900 minutes of Iverson and no Anthony? They won 83% of those minutes.
Anthony without Iverson? Done under 300 minutes and no change in results.
This is surface information and you’d have to look at details about other teammates and quality of opponents. The previous season Iverson’s first there the team was better with the combo 60% win over just Iverson 40% win. So a contrast with this season. Could be other factors and randomness but it might be that Karl and the team learned to do better with Iverson sans Anthony. And again adding Anthony to Iverson did not add extra wins last season either vs just Anthony.
There might be some merit to considering a trade of Anthony if they plan to keep Iverson more than just one more season. See what you can get offered.
Or go find someone that Anthony can play with and actually get added wins when together. Iverson is not that guy.
Lang
May 1, 2008
The Zen-like vision of Jerry Buss supported and implemented by Mitch Kupchak and / or Phil Jackson lead to better results with the Kobe- Pau Gasol pairing, Kobe’s best pairing from a team win % standpoint, winning 88% of the time.
Lang
May 1, 2008
If you build around Anthony there is some data suggesting that he works best with good defenders and 3 pt shooters. Being around 10th on defense may not be enough to achieve playoff success. Being 19th on 3pt Fg% and 13th on team 3ptrs made seems like not enough.
Either choose between these scorers or I’d suggest managing the rotation to separate them as much as possible. They essentially fill the same role.
Lang
May 1, 2008
If team performance is mainly or nearly entirely the sum of individuals then Najera would not seem an essential piece. But raw team +/- data with him on court is better than for any other Denver player the last 2 seasons and he was also apart of the best lineup according to the adjusted +/- at basketballvalue.com this season. Will be interested to see if the Denver braintrust keep him or let him go and what results that see from that. By Wins Produced he appears to be nothing more than a decent but minor roleplayer. Is that the case? Different lenses, different answers.
Lang
May 1, 2008
Surrounding Anthony with defenders and 3 pt shooters would be fairly similar to what Houston has with McGrady.
A good reference model for Iverson might be New Orleans. It isn’t that different conceptually than Denver’s apparent design but in New Orleans everyone accepts that Paul is #1 and Peja is a great late in the clock bailout option. Anthony improved as a “crunch shooter” from last season to this one but he is still nothing special yet but could be.
The pace of these 2 teams is very different with Denver the fastest and New Orleans one of the slowest. Iverson’s best season was in Philly under Brown playing slow (19th on pace) surrounded by defense. After getting to the finals they generally played faster and won less. Iverson might like to play fast and a lot people like to see it but Denver’s experiment that way isn’t a raging success in the playoffs either.
Lang
May 1, 2008
These are just the quick impressions from 1-2 hours research. The net decision of the “experts” inside the Nuggets was apparently that Iverson / Anthony was an important combo that could be very successful and that playing fast was the way to go. It has gotten them this far but… further? With “no change”, patience and Nene?
We’ll see what they decide and what the results are next season.
Lang
May 1, 2008
Denver staff had to project how Iverson would do with Anthony which is difficult. Right now I am looking back which is easier but I wasn’t a fan of the move then or now. I am a little surprised though that iverson seems the better fit of the you right now though age obviously is a big factor in any “choice” if it comes to that. I don’t think it will. They probably roll with the pair one more time then likely let Iverson go or sign n trade.
Lang
May 1, 2008
JR Smith was their best 3 pt shooter but do they keep him?
That could be an important choice.
Sign n trade might be the preferred rout but not sure to where or for what value in return.
Nuggets not looking very good right now from perspective of 2009 and beyond.
Between choice of maximizing next year or major overhaul, fullout attempt beginning now to improve the future I’d opt for the later.
Lang
May 1, 2008
No JR Smith, no Najera without adequate replacements would weaken next year’s squad and might tip the balance on getting the 8th seed or not. It will be very hard for salary cap reasons to just “stay the same”. Preferring to, expecting that to be the “best course” is not enough. The key to me is achieving the best change.
andrew fisher
May 2, 2008
i disagree with what the stats say about marcus camby. from what i see in the game (which is more than what stats can claim), marcus camby is a liability on offense and EVEN on defense! sure he gets us 4 blocks a game, but 90% of his blocks are all weakside blocks where he leaves his man (or even worse, his zone when we play zone!). and against teams with great low post players like pau… theyre just WAY too strong for camby. i say trade camby for a good PG who could do better than anthony carter in LESS minutes, giving more playing time to JR and linas! that’s just what I think. peace
M2J
May 2, 2008
this is the dumbest statistical bullshit I’ve seen in sometime
dustin
May 2, 2008
I’m glad you found a way to contribute to the conversation M2J. We all know humans have an exceptional abililty to perceive information without bias. I’m sure your basketball knowledge and disregard for statistics has landed you in the front office of a premier NBA team. It’s probably just a coincidence that the Celtics, Mavs, and Cavs all keep advanced statistics and also all happened to make the playoffs. I’m sure the front office that you work for knows better than that though.
dustin
May 2, 2008
I’m not saying stats are infallible, I’m just saying that if you aren’t working in the front office of an NBA team I would be a little more skeptical in my ability to evaluate NBA talent.
Lang
May 3, 2008
The the thrust of the article is against the grain and I respect the willingness to do that. That is part of why I decided to think and write about it.
hohoho
May 18, 2008
ok. I will point out just a few things…..
these points are all suggested upon the assumption that you mentioned in the column that denver should go with starting line-up “carter-answer-melo-nene-camby”…
first of all, what about a poor parameter defence and rotation?? how are you gonna deal with that with 2-3 zone defence and “carter-answer” small line-up backcourt??
second, if you start with nene, instead of martin, then there will be decline in transition offence – especially 2ndary fastbreak, and also game pace. as you know, denver use early-offence-isolation, so it’s critical to keep the offence efficiency keeping the game pace real high. how are you gonna deal with that??
third, nene has shorter shooting range and lower ability to make points in paint zone than martin. that means you lose another offence option (cutter/shooter) in middle range. what if denver lose some offence-efficiency in halfcourt-offence? how are you gonna deal with that?
I agree that if denver use nene over martin for starting line-up, denver can take advantage of defence of low-post area. if denver use camby as a helper for middle range area and use nene as a final defender at low-post area. but the more important matter for denver now is not about low-post defence but poor parameter defence.