Throughout the NBA Finals we have heard over and over again: “The Lakers have the NBA’s best player.”
If we look at Wins Produced, NBA Efficiency, PERs, or any other “advanced” metric, I don’t think you will see Kobe Bryant on the top of any list. The only place Kobe finished on top is in total points scored.
Of course – as detailed in The Wages of Wins – scoring dominates the evaluation of playing talent in the NBA. So it’s not surprising to hear people say over and over again: “Kobe is the game’s best player.”
If we turn to Wins Produced, we see that Chris Paul was the M2P (Most Productive Player) in the NBA in 2007-08. Kevin Garnett – the top player on the Boston Celtics – has frequently been the NBA’s M2P, and if we look beyond just 2007-08, appears to be the game’s “best” player. Of course, neither Garnett nor Paul leads the NBA in scoring. So it seems difficult for the media to think of either player as the “best.”
The M2P in the WNBA
On Sunday I offered my first analysis of the WNBA. And given what The Wages of Wins says about the NBA, it’s natural to wonder: Does scoring dominate the evaluation of talent in the NBA’s sister league?
To answer that question, let’s look at the “best” player in 2007. If Wins Produced is our metric of choice – the M2P in the WNBA in 2007 was (drum roll please)… Lauren Jackson of the Seattle Storm.
Table One: The Top 50 in the WNBA in 2007
Fans of the WNBA should not be surprised. Jackson led the WNBA in points score per game, and also ranked first in NBA Efficiency (the NBA’s simple, yet inaccurate, metric). If we turn to WP40 – Wins Produced per 40 minutes – we see that Jackson’s mark of 0.396 also led the league. In sum, Jackson was not just the top scorer. She was clearly the best player in 2007.
To put Jackson’s performance in further perspective, one should note that only two players – Tamika Catchings of the Indiana Fever and Cheryl Ford of the Detroit Shock – posted WP40 marks in excess of 0.300 (average is 0.100). Catchings and Ford, though, missed substantial portions of the season. Consequently neither finished second in Wins Produced.
Over Valued Scorers Again?
The player that did finish second might be a surprise. Lindsey Whalen – a guard for the Connecticut Sun – produced 7.1 wins and posted a 0.272 WP40. Despite this performance, Whalen was not named to either the first or second All-WNBA teams.
Becky Hammon – a guard who is ranked 21st in Wins Produced – was named to the first team All-WNBA. How does a player ranked 21st top the second most productive player in the game?
Before I answer that question I should note that Hammon – like Martin Schmidt, Stacey Brook, and myself – attended Colorado State University. In fact, Hammon might be the most famous athlete ever to attend our alma mater. Consequently, my analysis of Hammon’s game might be biased.
Okay, it might, but as Table Two indicates, it ain’t.
Table Two: Comparing Lindsey Whalen and Becky Hammon
As Table Two indicates, Hammon – relative to Whalen – is the much better scorer. This is true from the line and the field. But when we look at the Net Possession factors – rebounds, steals, and turnovers – Whalen has an immense edge. Whalen is better on the boards, gets more steals, and is far less likely to commit a turnover. As Win Score indicates (and this is the same story told with Wins Produced), Whalen’s advantage with respect to Net Possessions completely erases Hammon’s edge as a scorer.
Of course, as we see with respect to the NBA, scorers can be overvalued. And it appears that might be the same story in the WNBA.
Then again, one example does not a study make. What if we look further down Table One? The fourth player listed is Rebekkah Brunson of the Sacramento Monarchs. Like Whalen, Brunson was also not named to the All-WNBA teams. Further down the list, though, we see Tina Thompson of the Houston Comets. Thompson was named to the second All-WNBA team. How do these two forwards compare?
Table Three: Comparing Rebekkah Brunson and Tina Thompson
As Table Three indicates, Thompson takes more shots and therefore scores more points. But when we turn to Net Possessions, Brunson offers more rebounds, more steals, and fewer turnovers. Consequently, we see a large difference in both Win Score and Wins Produced.
Okay, so now we have two examples. Although this isn’t much, it’s enough for us to suspect that the WNBA suffers from the same problem as the NBA. Scorers are overvalued. Players who produce wins via the possession factors are undervalued.
Unlike the NBA, with respect to identifying the top player in the WNBA, the scoring bias is not a problem. Laurent Jackson is the both the top scorer and M2P. When we get past the top spot, though, we begin to see some problems.
For my next post on the WNBA, we will look at the overvalued and undervalued players in the league. That column will offer further evidence that scorers are overvalued in professional basketball, regardless of who is playing the game.
– DJ
The WoW Journal Comments Policy
Our research on the NBA was summarized HERE.
The Technical Notes at wagesofwins.com provides substantially more information on the published research behind Wins Produced and Win Score
Wins Produced, Win Score, and PAWSmin are also discussed in the following posts:
Simple Models of Player Performance
What Wins Produced Says and What It Does Not Say
Introducing PAWSmin — and a Defense of Box Score Statistics
Finally, A Guide to Evaluating Models contains useful hints on how to interpret and evaluate statistical models.
Wages of Wins Journal 
Vince Gagliano
June 16, 2008
While we’re on the WNBA, I feel that Candace Parker’s rookie season bears mentioning, since she is rapidly being characterized as “the face of the league”
She’s only hitting 45.2% from the field and 67.4% from the line, but is 50% from three-point land, averaging a double double (16.7 points and 10 rebounds), has a 1.82 assist-turnover ratio, and has over 2 blocks per game.
By contrast, Brunson shoots 49.5% from the field and 65.6% from the line, but only averages 11.1 points, 6.8 blocks, and 0.5 boards. In fact, her 0.18 A-TO ratio is one-TENTH of Parker’s.
As one final example, Jackson gets 19.6 points and 7.3 boards on 45% shooting and 92.5% free throw percentage, has 1.5 blocks, and a 0.70 A-TO ratio.
Before I sign out, it must be mentioned that Parker is versatile, and has played the role of a guard, forward, and center.
Oh yeah, and the Sparks are 7-2.
Vince Gagliano
June 16, 2008
By the way, Parker currently has a WS40 of 12.3, which would have just cleared Brunson’s 12.0.
That would have easily made her the second-best player in the WNBA in 2007 by any measure. She’s that good.
And the development of the Sparks powerhouse should mesh nicely with that of the Lakers, don’t you think?
Vince Gagliano
June 16, 2008
6.8 boards and 0.5 blocks. Oops.
William
June 16, 2008
Respectfully, I vote that the Wages of Wins Journal’s foray into WNBA analysis ends soon.
Dr. Steven J. Balassi
June 16, 2008
Scorers often end up being the leaders of the team. Our society tends to be result orientated. The top scoring atheletes get the most publicity and dollars. This can lead to a “scorer” mentality instead of a “team” one. It’s the same way in the corporate world. People get recognized and promoted based on results. Teamwork is not stressed as much as it should be.
Vince Gagliano
June 16, 2008
Essentially, scorers are hyped because basketball games are won by having the most points. Everything else contributes to points, and for good reason, but points are the result of the energy a team expends.
By the way, Parker is 13th in the NBA in scoring and 2nd on the Sparks to Lisa Leslie. However, she has 4.4 assists per game to Leslie’s 1.9. In other words, she contributes more to the Sparks’ scoring despite taking it to the hoop less.
In contrast, Cappie Pondexter and Diana Taurasi, the 1st and 2nd most prolific scorers in the NBA, play on the 2-6 Phoenix Mercury. Much of that blame can be traced to the fact that Pondexter only gets .907 points per shot and Taurasi .973
Tangela Smith, the team’s leading rebounder, doesn’t even grab 8 boards per game. Outside of Pondexter, Taurasi, and Smith, nobody else scores in double figures. The Mercury as a whole average 15 assists on 74 field goals.
And that, gentlemen, is why they are only twelfth in the 14-team league.
Parker is stellar in nearly every aspect of the game, and Leslie has been the best center in the WNBA for quite some time.
That’s why many people are penciling them in as the champs.
porteno
June 16, 2008
I’m not sure I can keep visiting if these WNBA posts keep up. I’m nearly convinced that they are just an inside joke where Dave is laughing at the people who take him seriously
Vince Gagliano
June 16, 2008
I certainly thought it was fascinating.
Maybe I’m wrong, but I enjoy looking at basketball stats in general.
Mountain
June 16, 2008
L Jackson off to career worst shooting start this season. Hammon ice cold shooting- 31% FG.
porteno
June 16, 2008
IT’S NOT BASKETBALL!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!11111111111111111111111111111!!!!!!!!1111111111111111111111111111111111111111111111111
Jeremy
June 16, 2008
An awful lot of comments for people who obviously can’t stand the WNBA….
M
June 16, 2008
Whalen is having a good start.
There are some good players and good play but the talent pool isn’t
14 teams deep. 8 deeper teams would impress more.
M
June 16, 2008
38% of WNBA shot less than 40% eFG%. 35% between 40-50%. 27% over 50% eFG%.
In NBA only 10% shot less than 40% eFG%. 52% between 40-50%. 38% over 50% eFG%.
SkipG.
June 17, 2008
The best player in the league is Lebron James. He led the league in scoring, finished fourth in assists and 21st in rebounds. He is the ultimate player. He does it all on the court. He makes those around him better. Oh yea and he’s only 23 years old.
M
July 5, 2008
On adjusted +/- James ranks 14th, lower than he does on many other metrics. James is top 1% on offense but registers below average on defensive impact on this measure. Most superstar team leaders who win titles are 2way strong players. James isn’t right now.
mira1218
July 25, 2008
I think most of us are forgetting one of the best if not THE best or should i say true all around players of the game, Deanna Nolan. Not only has she scored 44 points in one game, this season. She also has had a great all around game. Nolan hands down even on her bad nights has been a consistent player.