As I noted yesterday, we just moved to Utah. Although we have a house and I have an office, the television has not yet been set up. So I was only able to check in on the draft via the Internet.
Given how much I still have to do to get settled into Utah, what follows is just a quick first impression I had in reading Chad Ford’s coverage of the draft at ESPN.com. Before I get to my comments, let me note that I am not trying to pick on Ford. I am sure that coverage on TV suffered from the same problem.
And what is the problem? Talent on draft night is consistently overrated.
The NBA Draft page (listed to the right in this forum)- which needs to be updated – lists reviews of past drafts from the early 1990s. One theme runs through each of these reviews: Few players ever become the stars envisioned on draft night.
Consider these facts:
- Of the 60 players drafted, some will never play in the NBA.
- Of those that do play – assuming a symmetrical distribution – roughly half will be below average and half will be above average.
- If we take these points together, we realize that the majority of players taken on Thursday night will not become above average NBA players.
Again, not to pick on ESPN’s Chad Ford, but if he is to be believed the NBA just added a number of star players. Consider the following descriptions Ford offered:
- #4 – Russell Westbrook: Overall, he has a chance to be a better version of Rajon Rondo.
- #16 – Marreese Speights: He is kind of a poor man’s Elton Brand.
- #23 – Kosta Koufus: He could be the second coming of Mehmet Okur — a sweet-shooting big man who can play inside and outside.
- #27 – Darrell Arthur: He has a chance to be an Antawn Jamison-type player.
- #28 – Donte Greene: Lots of scouts compare him to Rashard Lewis.
- #34 – Mario Chalmers: He’s kind of a poor man’s O.J. Mayo
- #41 – Nathan Jawaii: a huge player from Australia who looks like a bigger version of Elton Brand.
Okay, here are some quick comments on these players.
- In his last year of college, Rajon Rondo’s Win Score per minute was 0.252 (an above average mark for a point guard drafted into the NBA). As a rookie, Rajon Rondo posted a 0.189 WP48 [Wins Produced per 48 minutes]. In his second year, Rondo had a mark of 0.219. Again, each of these marks is well above average. From Erich Doerr’s analysis of the 2008 prospects, we see that Westbrook’s numbers in college are quite a bit worse than the numbers posted by Rondo. Yet somehow we are to believe – at this point – that Westbrook is going to be the better NBA player? If that happens, UCLA might want to ask Westbrook why he couldn’t have played better in college.
- We have two players are compared to Elton Brand (Speights and Jawaii). Brand has produced more than 100 wins in his career and has consistently posted WP48 marks above 0.200 (average is 0.100). Speights has a chance to be above average. But to expect Brand-like numbers seems a bit of a stretch. And to expect Elton Brand to show up at the 41st pick in the draft is completely unbelievable.
- Darrell Arthur – who Ford mentioned over and over again – is expected to be another Antawn Jamison. Jamison has also been an above average player throughout his career. Again, getting such a player at #27 would be amazing (and judging from Doerr’s analysis, unlikely).
- Yes, Rashard Lewis was taken in the second round. But clearly, if team’s could have forecasted his performance better (a forecast that was made difficult by the fact Lewis came straight out of high school), he would have gone higher than the 28th spot. Donte Greene – the 28th pick this year -did play college basketball. And from Doerr’s analysis, we see that he posted a below average PAWSMIN [Position Adjusted Win Score per Minute] his one year in college. So it seems unlikely he is going to become the next Rashard Lewis (a player who has consistently been an above average NBA small forward).
- Kosta Koufus is another player who posted uninspiring college numbers. And yet we are to believe he can be the next Okur, a player who has been above average in the NBA?
- And finally, both Doerr and I have noted that O.J. Mayo was not impressive in college. And in the second round – according to Ford — Miami has acquired a poor man’s version of Mayo (Mario Chalmers). Again, I am not sure the rich man’s version is going to help much. Hard to see how the poor man’s version makes a big splash.
One could go on and on, but I don’t think that’s necessary. Although it’s easy to fall in love with potential, in a few years many of these players are going to demonstrate that they are not above average NBA players. And very few players drafted last night are going to become NBA stars (expect less than five).
Okay, enough of my first impression. Much has happened that needs to be discussed. In the next few days (or few weeks) I will try and offer detailed comments on…
- the O.J. Mayo for Kevin Love trade (Kevin McHale clearly got the better of that move).
- the Jermaine O’Neal for T.J. Ford trade
- the Richard Jefferson for Yi Jianlian trade
- every player taken out of college
All of this, though, will have to wait until another day. For those who need more Wages of Wins draft analysis today, I once again recommend the following columns by Erich Doerr:
2008 Win Scores NBA Draft Preview
In addition, Erich has also offered the following Draft Recap at Draft Express:
Win Scores 2008 NBA Draft Recap
This recap is quite extensive and definitely worth reading (something you can say about everything Erich writes).
– DJ
Wages of Wins Journal 
Jeremy
June 27, 2008
Berri? Have you considered applying for a GM job or perhaps something like US Economic advisor?? Lets just say if I had my own basketball team I think I know who would be running it. And Im pretty sure that it would be a 70 win team every year.
Q
June 27, 2008
Prof Berri —
I think you make an outstanding point about the analysts overrating some of these prospects — I’ve always found it funny that guys who get picked second round can be compared to perennial all-stars.
So I’m curious about what you think of Hollinger’s latest draft rater system? Instead of comparing college production, he’s used regression analysis to try to project 3rd year production.
I think his analysis also provides a more sober approach to prospect evaluation, though he uses PER instead of Win Score, which I know you have some differences on.
BTW, I have never understood the buzz about Donte Greene… he does have a similar game to Lewis…with every single flaw magnified. Terrible shot selection and worse defense.
Tyson
June 27, 2008
I always like reading your basketball analysis. It seems like most other writers get carried away by small sample sizes and flashy players with 40-inch verticals who don’t shoot well, get rebounds or play defense (Eris Gordon). I don’t know why Ford considers Augustin to be a good pick at #9. He’s not big enough to guard the big point guards like Williams and Billups and Rose, and there’s no evidence that he’s the same type of distributor as Chris Paul. I don’t get it. At best he’s a decent backup point guard.
Henry
June 27, 2008
I wish Berri was in charge of my team…
Brendan
June 27, 2008
It merits saying that indicating that a prospect plays a similar game to NBA Player X is not the same as saying that they play it as well as that player.
Jason
June 27, 2008
I’ve heard that it’s difficult to get a movie greenlighted that can’t be distilled into some combination of movies already made or perturbation of another movie. In similar manner, it’s something of a crutch to compare any young player to an established player.
Erich
June 27, 2008
I think this post was a well-needed dose of reality after a day where fantasy reigns. I look forward to the offseason, book #2, and an in-depth analysis of the topics highlighted.
Thanks for your support!
Owen
June 28, 2008
Erich great work. I can’t wait to see how all this turns out, especially Mareese Speights….
Vince Gagliano
June 28, 2008
As a Gator fan, I’ve felt that Mo made his decision one year too early, as have others.
However, especially in light of DeAndre Jordan, he still ended up on the team that best fits his needs, even if he wasn’t a lottery pick.
I also felt that the Sixers took him because saw a potential “20-10” college center and want to help bring him up to speed.
Oh, and nice work, Erich. However, I have one gripe with your work.
Kevin McHale entered the draft knowing that O.J. Mayo was the “third-best” player in this draft. However, he fell in love with Love during his workout and was even thinking of taking him #3.
However, he got his man anyway after Memphis decided to make a blockbuster trade involving a star weeks before the deadline (sound familiar?)
So one can argue that McHale really picked Mayo as a ploy to get Mike Miller. Thus, by using popular perception, he was able to get 2 (Miller, Love) for the price of 1 (O.J. Mayo)
One final note. McHale has Miller, a star small forward, Love, a potential star at power forward, and Al Jefferson, a star at center. We already know that he drafts 4’s in his own image.
Is he trying to emulate Bird-McHale-Parish from the Red era?
Jacob Rosen
June 28, 2008
Have you ever felt that teams are starting to get better at adjusting and scouting players that are big risks? For example, the players in this year’s draft that were thought of as risky big men were DeAndre Jordan and Kosta Koufos, who both fell drastically. Is this something that has come along with modernization, or just a random occurrence with a few players?
Jason
June 29, 2008
Chris Mullin apparently still feels like targeting “potential” and “maximum upside” in his first rounders, or so he’s said. That’s perhaps the reason for drafting Anthony Randolph, as Randolph’s stats don’t suggest him to be ready for the next level. Koufos and Jordan fell, but Randolph went in the late lottery and Sac took a big man who most projected to go much later in the draft.
At least from the vantage point of a Warrior fan yelling at the screen when the pick was announced, I didn’t see much evidence that GMs are practicing any sensible risk aversion.
mrparker
June 30, 2008
If thats the way Chris Mullin feels then he needs to be fired. I can’t think of one bonified NBA star who was drafted on potential and turned out being a good player after intially sucking. But maybe I’m wrong.
For my troubles the Wiz select Jevele McGee…curses.
I still think one of the top 10 players in the draft went undrafted. His name is Mike Green and he was the point guard for Butler.
Another Pete
June 30, 2008
in a few years many of these players are going to demonstrate that they are not above average NBA players.
And, of course, we’ll see some of these below average NBA players anointed as stars based on high scoring numbers achieved by taking lots of mediocre shots…
I see OJ Mayo being a possible candidate for this kind of start to his career, followed by the inevitable lamenting of TWolves fans for having passed up on a “star” (not noticing for a bit that their team, somehow, is winning more games) and the wailing of Grizzlies fans that their “star needs help, he obviously can’t win alone”. Oh, and the gnashing of teeth of the WoW-style-analysis partisans…
Nick
June 30, 2008
I have to say I’m eminently suspicious of Win Score as means to project the value of prospects. I saw that Eric Doerr had listed the success rates of his projection from last year, but that seems unreliable since we’re only talking about one year of development. I think it would be few GMs who were expecting players to reach their potential in a year.
Is there any way you guys could do a retroactive analysis of the drafts from like 98-03. I think that would lend a little more credibility to Win Score as a draft projection tool.
mrparker
June 30, 2008
Winscore does a pretty good job of projecting nba success. What its missing is a way to project for changing roles from team to team or league to league. Once we/they figure out how to that, they could write a book superior to moneyball.