Previously I labeled Jermaine O’Neal the MOP (Most Overpaid Player) of 2007-08. Although we frequently focus on the winner of any contest, there should be some interest in the player who was MOP runner-up. After all, in the event the reigning MOP cannot fulfill his duties, the runner-up will assume the crown. And who would take on such duties if J. O’Neal faltered? It’s none other than Andrea Bargnani, the new teammate of J. O’Neal.
Bargnani for O’Neal?
In addition to being the runner-up MOP, Bargnani was also the L2P (Least Productive Player) of 2007-08. Bargnani – in only 1,861 minutes – produced a (-5.7) wins. Had the Raptors replaced Bargnani with a power forward that produced zero wins, Toronto could have expected to win nearly 54 games this past season.
How does replacing Bargnani with someone who produced zero wins get a team that won only 41 games all the way to 54 victories? The answer is in Table One.
Table One: The Toronto Raptors in 2007-08
Table One offers two projections of the Raptors. The first is based on the player’s performance in 2006-07. The second looks at how many wins the team should have seen based on the 2007-08 performance. Both forecasts indicate that the Raptors were better than a 41 win team. And this can also be seen in the team’s efficiency differential (no surprise, since Wins Produced is based on efficiency differential). The Raptors efficiency differential of 3.1 was the fourth best mark in the Eastern Conference (something I noted last March).
To this team, the Raptors are adding Jermaine O’Neal. Unfortunately, O’Neal – since the middle of the 2006-07 season – has stopped producing at an above average level. Prior to the 2007-08 campaign, O’Neal had a career WP48 [Wins Produced per 48 minutes] of 0.143 (average is 0.100). Last year his mark was only -0.017.
Obviously – as I noted a couple of days ago – O’Neal didn’t help the Pacers much last year. Still, even if he doesn’t improve at all as a Raptor, he could help Toronto win more games if the minutes given to Bargnani are simply transferred to O’Neal. Specifically, the Raptors are about five wins better replacing Bargnani with O’Neal. And again, that’s without J. O’Neal getting any better.
Unfortunately, one suspects that the Raptors are not going to follow this approach. No, O’Neal’s minutes are probably going to come mostly from Rasho Nesterovic (who departed in the trade for O’Neal). Nestrovic posted a 0.104 WP48 last year, so the Raptors would have to be getting the O’Neal from a few years ago for this move to start to make sense.
It’s possible, of course, that this is the J. O’Neal the Raptors have acquired. At least, it’s possible that J. O’Neal only played poorly because he was either injured or unmotivated. Certainly when the other O’Neal (Shaq) moved from Miami to Phoenix, Shaq suddenly offered more output (not as much as the Shaq of old, but certainly more than the old Shaq we saw in Miami). So it’s possible the change of scenery will make a difference for J. O’Neal and the Raptors. But since the Raptors gave up an average big man for J. O’Neal, even if J. O’Neal is healthy and motivated, the Raptors are still not much better off.
Looking at the Rest of the Trade
And this analysis completely ignores the other elements of the trade. The Raptors are also surrendering T. J. Ford and the draft rights to Roy Hibbert. Ford posted a 0.160 WP48 last year, making him one of the better point guards in the game. The Raptors, though, already have Jose Calderon. Calderon’s WP48 was 0.309, a mark that ranks among the top five at the point guard spot in the NBA. By moving Ford, the Raptors have made a clear commitment to Calderon (re-signing Calderon also helped). And giving some of Ford’s minutes to Calderon should help the team improve. But it’s important to remember, Calderon averaged 30 minutes per game last season. So the Raptors can’t transfer all of Ford’s minutes. In other words, Toronto can’t give Calderon that much more time. And Toronto is still going to have to add a back-up point guard, who is likely to be worse than Ford. In sum — if you can follow this last paragraph (not sure I can) — the net impact of losing Ford might still be negative.
The Colangelo Way
Let’s summarize all of this by considering the recent big moves in Toronto.
- This year we have the O’Neal trade. When we consider O’Neal’s lack of productivity in 2007-08, the loss of T.J. Ford, and the loss of Toronto’s first round pick, it’s hard to see how this trade helps the Raptors.
- Last year the Raptors signed Jason Kapono, who produced -2.0 wins this past season. Not Bargnani bad, but still not a level of productivity that helps.
- And then in 2006 the Raptors drafted Bargnani with the first pick overall. Clearly this move hasn’t quite worked out either.
If we consider each of these major moves, it looks like the tenure of Bryan Colangelo has not been successful. But then we consider the following names: Calderon, Jamario Moon, Anthony Parker, and Carlos Delfino. Each of these players are above average talents who were acquired very cheaply by Colangelo.
In sum – as I noted last January – Colangelo seems to have a knack for finding productive players who are also quite cheap. It’s just the big decisions – trades, free agents signings, and the draft – that seem to cause problems.
Nevertheless – even with the O’Neal trade – the Raptors will still have five productive players in the regular rotation (Chris Bosh, Calderon, Parker, Delfino, and Moon). If O’Neal can return to form – and the team’s efficiency differential and wins move into better alignment (like it is for most every other team) – Toronto should win more games than it did last year. And if Colangelo finds yet another cheap, productive player, perhaps the Raptors can make this O’Neal trade look like a winner.
It probably won’t be, but it might look like one if the team wins more than 41 games in 2008-09.
Update: Two WoW Journal readers noted that Colangelo did not originally sign Calderon. So Calderon was not a Colangelo find (although he did choose to keep him). Also, most of the arguments in this post were actually noted in the comments on the post examining the Indiana side of this trade. I meant to note the perceptiveness of the WoW Journal readers when I originally posted this column on the Raptors.
– DJ
The WoW Journal Comments Policy
Our research on the NBA was summarized HERE.
The Technical Notes at wagesofwins.com provides substantially more information on the published research behind Wins Produced and Win Score
Wins Produced, Win Score, and PAWSmin are also discussed in the following posts:
Simple Models of Player Performance
What Wins Produced Says and What It Does Not Say
Introducing PAWSmin — and a Defense of Box Score Statistics
Finally, A Guide to Evaluating Models contains useful hints on how to interpret and evaluate statistical models.
Wages of Wins Journal 
M
July 1, 2008
I generally agree with the Colangelo assessment presented.
On the flip side, going with 2 long bigs who can score might be the right approach against the Celtics, Pistons, Magic.
Pete
July 1, 2008
John Hollinger looked a the draft and did some fascinating statistical work to predict NBA player performance. The New York Times profiles his work here, http://freakonomics.blogs.nytimes.com/2008/07/01/can-a-draft-regression-outpredict-nba-experts/
Paul
July 1, 2008
Some Raptor fact-checking:
* Calderon was acquired by Colangelo’s predecessor, the much-maligned Rob Babcock. He’ll be backed up by Croatian prospect Roko Leni-Ukic, also a Babcock find.
* But another find we should give Colangelo credit for was Jorge Garbajosa. The Raptors made a great run at the beginning of 07 with Garbajosa in the starting lineup, and were never the same after he went down, for whatever reason. I wonder if your stats reflect this (and I wonder how much you think about how teammates influence each other’s performance; ie. O’Neal’s presence in the post may help Kapono, etc.)
* Delfino’s presence on next year’s team is seriously in doubt, as the Raptors have very little room under the luxury tax and have expressed a desire to shorten the rotation and give players more clearly defined roles. That could send Delfino packing for Europe.
JY
July 1, 2008
Great article, David. One small correction: Calderon was actually signed by Rob Babcock and not Bryan Colangelo.
khandor
July 2, 2008
Bryan Colangelo’s efficacy, as a GM in the NBA, is an interesting subject for debate.
In general, ‘Activity’ should not be confused with (actual) ‘Accomplishment’.
Good job, on your part, David. :-)
Sam
July 2, 2008
I highly doubt Bargnani’s minutes will remain the same next season. While Collangelo and company seem to hold out hope for Bargs they appear to be entertaining the possibility he is a draft bust. The trade with the Pacers represents them hedging the bet they made on Bargnani in the first place. Given his salary, Jermaine O’Neal will be expected to start and play major minutes alongside Bosh and, to a lesser extent, Bargnani.
One question: assuming that O’Neil has deteriorated a bit since his peak season (which I note was not that long ago), can coaching reinvigorate his WP48? i.e. if he was persuaded to focus on defense and rebounding would there be a likely improvement in his WP48?
khandor
July 2, 2008
Sam,
FYI …
Trading for Jermaine O’Neal doesn’t signify a ‘hedge’ against the bet the Raptors are making that Bargnani is not a ‘draft bust’.
On the contrary.
Including Rasho Nesterovic in the O’Neal trade package is a MASSIVE BET on the Pass Line … that Bargnani is not a bust at all, and is actually CAPABLE of eating up the AVAILABLE minutes as the 3rd Big Man in the Raptors’ ‘tightened’ rotation, as THE REPLACEMENT for Nesterovic … which is a risky proposition, at best, given Il Mago’s production (?) numbers from the 2007-2008 season, as outlined precisely (above) by David Berri.
‘Persuading’ Bargnani to focus on Rebounding and Defense is not the problem they face.
Getting meaningful ‘production’ from him, in these specific areas, as their 3rd Big, is what matters … else the DON’T PASS Line will be reaping huge rewards next season for the ‘players’ inclined to tilt in that specific direction with their investment dollars.
:-)
Sam
July 2, 2008
Hey Khandor. We’ll slowly turn all sites into a debate over Raptors minutiae. I wasn’t talking about Bargs in the last question. I was wondering about JO’s decline from ’06-’07 being reversible if he was focussed on defensive production because a decent amount of press on the JO deal lauds his defence and because he and Bosh are going to have to find an equilibrium on the offensive end (and Bosh might be better doing the heavy lifting there). Essentially, mine is a question of whether you can at least guess at the statistical impact of a change in coaching.
I get your point about Bargs now taking Rasho’s minutes but if management has opened their eyes to the possibility Bargs is not a good NBA player there is the possibility that if he doesn’t produce as a #3 big man he will relegated to the #4 big man spot and Humphries to #3 (if he isn’t traded) – i.e. filling the #3 spot is less difficult than filling the #1 or #2 spots in a forward rotation.
khandor
July 2, 2008
Sam,
Jermaine O’Neal’s ‘productivity’ (defensively or offensively) DID NOT plummet recently due to the coaching he received these last 2 years in Indiana.
I’m willing to bet that David Berri would simply DISAGREE with the other commentators you’ve (we’ve) been reading who ‘believe’ that JO has been ‘one of the best defensive players’ in the League these last few years, based on the productivity numbers/analysis David’s using.
IMO, at this stage of his career, the on-court basketball reality (as opposed to stats-only reality) is that JO is at best a decent defensive player.
====================
When Jermaine O’Neal has been completely healthy he has been a good but nowhere near great PF/C in the NBA.
If JO is injured … he is a mediocre-bad defensive player.
======================
Sam Mitchell has yet to establish himself in the NBA as a good defensive coach … despite the fact that he was a solid defensive player during his own career.
======================
IMO, filling the #3 Big Man spot with a highly productive player is more difficult than many casual NBA observers realize and one of the key elements which separate the Legit Contenders from Everybody Else at this level of competition.
Jim Stark
July 29, 2008
You make a lot of bad points with this article. Your basically saying that Rasho Nesterovic was better at center numbers wise. So trading for O’Neal means the Raptors wasted a valuable center. Nesterovic is trash even a injured O’Neal playing at center this year would be better than him. You also say losing TJ Ford hurts the team. But Jose Calderon played better thus more minutes starting this year means a even better player. Also losing the #17 pick (Roy Hibbert) means nothing to the Raptors. Even if Hibbert played he’s just a rookie he wouldn’t had made an impact with the team.
Tim
August 21, 2008
Dave,
Some questions about the 2007/2008 league analysis. It seems Toronto had the highest disparity between wins produced and actual wins of -7.8. Is this because the team ‘beat up’ on some weaker teams with some high scores?
Alternatively, both NJ and Cleveland had a few more actual wins to wins produced.
Can you clarify why you think there is a disparity? Specifically, I’m wondering whether coaching/late game execution played a part?
Thanks!
khandor
August 22, 2008
Toronto won games by a lot of points on those occasions when they shot the ball well … and, in general, lost their games vs quality opponents.
With Jose Calderon playing more minutes this season, at the Point, coming the stretch of more games this season their performance should better reflect their actual Pts For/Pts Against numbers, in terms of overall wins and losses.
khandor
September 4, 2008
Also of note … the Raptors will not have Carlos Delfino on this year’s roster … which removes one of the five productive players you had slated for their primary line-up heading into this season.
From your perspective, does this fact make the Jermaine O’Neal trade (in exchange for Nesterovic, Ford and a flip-flop of 2008 draft picks) a zero-sum gain for the Raptors?
eddie
November 2, 2008
good trade for raptors after first 3 games undefeated.
khandor
November 3, 2008
In 2004-2005 the Toronto Raptors started their season with a 3-0 mark.
That year they finished 33-49/.402, in 4th place in their division, 12 games behind the leader in the Atlantic.
Is this going to happen again during the 2008-2009 season?
Maybe; maybe not.
However, just because a team starts the season 3-0 does not mean that a certain transaction which occurred during the off-season qualifies as a ‘Good Trade’ [or not] for that team.
It’s a long grind in the NBA.