The New Jersey Nets announced Sunday that they have signed Keyon Dooling. Dooling is coming off his best season, which suggests this move might help. At least, until we learn what “best” means for Dooling. With the Orlando Magic in 2007-08, Dooling produced 1.4 wins in 1,334 minutes. This works out to a WP48 [Wins Produced per 48 minutes] of 0.050. Average is 0.100, so Dooling was not exactly good. And yes, that’s the best he has ever done.
The Dooling move is quite consistent with the other moves the Nets have made this summer. So far this off-season the Nets have added – in addition to Dooling — the following players:
Yi Jianlian [-0.056 WP48 in 2007-08]
Jarvis Hayes [0.048 WP48 in 2007-08]
Bobby Simmons [-0.022 WP48 in 2007-08]
Eduardo Najera [0.038 WP48 in 2007-08]
Brook Lopez [rookie who Erich Doerr’s analysis does not treat favorably]
These six players are added to the following returning talents:
Devin Harris [0.135 WP48 in 2007-08 with Nets]
Vince Carter [0.181 WP48 in 2007-08]
Josh Boone [0.154 WP48 in 2007-08]
Sean Williams [0.070 WP48 in 2007-08]
Marcus Williams [0.051 WP48 in 2007-08]
Now if we look at these numbers we see that none of the six players the Nets added this summer look to be more productive than the five rotation players the team retained. In sum, it looks like the Nets – who won only 34 games last year – are not heading in the right direction.
A Different Perspective on the Nets
At least that’s what Wins Produced indicates. Rod Thorn – the team’s president and architect of this team -is more optimistic about the Nets. Here is what Thorn said in the New York Daily News:
The long-term that Thorn may be talking about is 2010. That is the summer of LeBron, or the summer when the New Jersey (or Brooklyn) Nets hope to lure King James from Cleveland to New York. It’s suspected that the moves the Nets are making now are not designed to win games this season or in 2009-10, but rather done to create enough cap space to sign LeBron.
I don’t think one needs Wins Produced to know that Yi Jianlian, Dooling, Najera, and Hayes are not the core players a championship team requires. And if this is true, it makes the LeBron conspiracy all the more plausible.
The Fan’s Response
If the Nets are in full “LeBron pursuit” mode, though, one wonders what fans of this team should do over the next two years. Generally when you buy tickets to see your favorite team play, you hope your favorite team is trying to win games. But the Nets don’t look like they are putting together a winner in 2008-09 or 2009-10. This means that for two years, the Nets are going to be among the NBA’s losers. So should fans buy tickets to see this team play? Or should fans of this team simply wait until the Nets actually field a competitive squad?
Sports fans don’t like to be accused of being “fair-weather fans.” In other words, people seem to take pride in their willingness to be supportive even when their team is a loser. It’s odd, though, that we don’t see this behavior in other areas. You don’t hear people return to a restaurant that serves food that doesn’t taste good. Or hear people say “I was eating here when it was awful. But I kept coming because I wanted to be here when it was good.”
What we don’t see with respect to restaurants, though, we often see with respect to sports fans. The “true” fans of the Nets are simply going to suck it up and keep watching this team lose.
What will LeBron do?
Will all that losing, though, be worthwhile? Does LeBron need to come to New York? It used to be the case that living in New York was quite advantageous for an athlete. Advertising people tended to live in New York and they seemed to want to cast their favorite athletes in commercials. If you watch TV, though, you have seen LeBron in many commercials. Apparently, living in Ohio – where LeBron is from – has not prevented LeBron from earning money off the basketball court.
It’s possible that LeBron is not motivated by outside earnings, but rather by winning. And since Cleveland has not provided him with the best supporting cast, King James might be willing to look elsewhere. But is King James going to win in New Jersey (or Brooklyn)? When we look at the current cast in New Jersey, it’s hard to see that happening. At least the supporting cast in New Jersey doesn’t look any better than what we see in Cleveland.
Of course if the Nets keep losing and adding lottery picks, maybe the picture will change. But that picture is going to involve much losing before it changes. And the fans buying tickets are still going to have to pay to see a team that is often going to leave a bad taste in their mouth.
– DJ
The WoW Journal Comments Policy
Our research on the NBA was summarized HERE.
The Technical Notes at wagesofwins.com provides substantially more information on the published research behind Wins Produced and Win Score
Wins Produced, Win Score, and PAWSmin are also discussed in the following posts:
Simple Models of Player Performance
What Wins Produced Says and What It Does Not Say
Introducing PAWSmin — and a Defense of Box Score Statistics
Finally, A Guide to Evaluating Models contains useful hints on how to interpret and evaluate statistical models.
Wages of Wins Journal 
Jacob Rosen
July 20, 2008
I am from Akron, Ohio, LeBron James’ hometown. The consensus opinion around here is that the Cavaliers are working towards creating a supporting cast around him that is better than everyone on the expected Nets roster in the summer for 2010. I was wondering if you could look at those numbers for players that are under contract through that year for the two teams, or the most productive players that would be sidekicks to LeBron. For example, is a future with Devin Harris, Chris Douglas-Roberts, Sean Williams, Josh Boone, Yi Jianlian, and Brook Lopez better than a future with Delonte West, Daniel Gibson, Sasha Pavlovic, J.J. Hickson, and Anderson Varejao?
The Cavaliers will have a lot of freedom to look for that extra young piece over the next calendar year as Wally Szczerbiak, Joe Smith, Eric Snow, and Damon Jones all have expiring contracts. Certainly the future core of recent high draft picks looks more promising for the Nets right now, but anything can happen in the next year. LeBron isn’t all about the glamor and hype of living in Manhattan, he wants to be a legend, and to be a legend he has to win championships.
versifiervt
July 21, 2008
I was wondering where this article was going after the first two paragraphs, then by the end, my curiousity turned to the writer. Is the writer a Cavs fan? Lord, help us. Cleveland is so fearful of losing Lebron that there seems to be more being written about his departure from Ohio, then there is being written here in the NY/NJ tri-state area about LBJ’s possible arrival. Sure, once the RJ trade to Milwaukee was made, everyone began writing about Lebron in most NY papers, but not much has been written about it around here since. But move over to Ohio, and the mystery surrounding Lebron is top story and will be for quite some time. Sad, I must say. Cleveland writers continue to compare this current Cavs team to the current Nets squad. In my mind, the Cavs traded away their only other young stud when they got rid of Drew Gooden. That was a huge mistake as it turns out. There are a number of “bad” teams in the league with a much better squad then that of the Cavaliers of Cleveland. And dare I say it…even the woeful Knicks boast more talent then the current Cavs squad and if you throw LBJ on the Knicks right now, how different do the Knicks become? The knock on the Knicks these past couple years wasn’t truly the lack of talent for the team does have some talented players, but it was their heart and the bad mix of players put together by Zeke. Put lebron with Curry/Randolph/Lee and let Duhon control the flow and that’s a pretty formidable starting lineup people. But this is about the Nets squad vs. the Cavs squad. Let see:
Devin > Boobie / West
VC > whole cavs squad minus Lebron
Boone/Lopez/SWill/Krstic > Cavs aging front court
Nets bench(Najera/MWill/Hayes/CDR/Anderson/Dooling) > Cavs Bench(who are they again? more aging players)
Yeah, I do believe the Nets are slowly recovering in this post-JKidd era, and slowly beginning to build a legit winner. The cavs on the other hand…good luck should Lebron ever be lost to either injury or to another team. And if the Nets don’t land Lebron? From what I’ve been reading from other “experts” —> CDR and Brook are supposed to be the real deals. So a core of Devin/CDR/Lopez…not too shabby…oh wait…I hear this Yi kid and Anderson Kid have some major upside too.
Joe
July 21, 2008
@versifiervt
You forgot about Stromile Swift. Major upside there too… who needs production when you have upside.
Jacob Rosen
July 21, 2008
Vince Carter will most likely not be on the Nets by the end of this coming NBA season, and assuredly will not be in town if/when LeBron James enter the fray. They would not have the cap room to sign James as a free agent if Carter was still in town. They are depending upon their young recent draft picks (Lopez, Douglas-Roberts, Harris, Jianlian) to be the core of their franchise. In Cleveland, J.J. Hickson, Daniel Gibson, and Anderson Varejao are the most promising recent draft picks. On the other hand, Eric Snow, Joe Smith, Ben Wallace, Wally Szczerbiak, and Zydrunas Ilgauskas are all old, and should be off the books by the time LeBron hits free agency. Devin Brown, and Delonte West are average players in the NBA, and could be helpful short-term is signed somewhat soon this off season.
Cleveland is scared out of their minds. You are talking about the most tortured city in all of North American sports. From “The Drive” by John Elway in 1987 to “The Shot”by Michael Jordan in 1989, and the fact no Cleveland team has won a championship since the Browns in 64, this city is the king of heart-breakers. The Indians failed to win the World Series twice in the mid-90’s, the Browns have yet to make it to the championship game in the Super Bowl era, and the Cavaliers have had playoff success with LeBron. We need him, and what a story it would be if the hometown legend helps his city win a championship.
Tim
July 21, 2008
Although your analysis might be dead on it really doesn’t make much sense since all these players played on different teams. If you put them together you might, and of course I say MIGHT, come up with a different conclusion. I guess we’ll find out starting in November.
versifiervt
July 21, 2008
@Joe
Point is…before Cleveland/Ohio writers go out ripping other team’s squads…basically out of fear of losing the “King”, take a deep breath and analyze your own situation and then put yourself in LBJ’s shoes. If you were him, do you like the direction of this Franchise…the same franchise who before he arrived, was as dysfunctional as the Nets team before Kidd? So then when you analyze what the Nets and Cavs have done ever since Kidd and LBJ arrived on the scene for their respective teams, neither can be given high grades. Cleveland has lost two young solid big men in Boozer / Gooden. They sign or trade for players like Larry Hughes or Ben Wallace who just aren’t consistent enough or aging. Their young talent in Gibson / Varejoa / Pavlovic aren’t as great as Cavs fans think they are. Gibson is definitely a playah with a sweet jump shot, but players like Sasha and Varejao can be found around the corner….just a matter of overpaying them so they can continue to over-achieve. The Nets on the otherhand have made bonehead moves like drafting Wright over Danny Granger. They’ve made their share of eye-browse raising signings like Mutumbo, McCinnins…etc. But there we are in 2008…Thorn/Kiki were able to isolate the issues on the Nets personnel, and bring in some young players…not just with upside but with good basketball IQ.
So point is…what is the long term direction of both teams…CAVS NEED to find some more pieces to keep LBJ happy. Do they have the assets to get him a legit star to play with? If not, do they have enough assets to build a good all around team? If the Cavs traded their 3 young assets for an aging star or other veteran pieces then it had better work or LBJ is gone…because they’d be putting all their eggs in one basket. If they don’t trade their young assets and hope for the best, then one of’em better turn out to be a great star or LBJ is gone. And not saying the Nets would be where he’d end up. But for him to do the right think, by analyzing the direction of every team he might go to….Cavs, Knicks, Nets, Dallas…etc. I’m pretty certain that the direction and quality of team management will play heavily on his mind. As of right now, the only right thing Cavs management has done is get lucky in drafting Lebron.
MarkT
July 21, 2008
I have no doubt the Nets are tanking 08 and 09. As a result they will wind up with at least two lottery picks befor LBJ has to make a decision, and depending on how Dallas does in 09-10, maybe three. In contrast, LBJ will probably keep Cleveland out of the lottery. So, regardless of how the present rosters compare, theoretically NJN may close the gap and even be in a better position come 2010 to offer a credible promise of future greatness.
LBJfan23
July 21, 2008
Who wrote this crap??? Are you serious? Don’t tell me people actually pay you to write articles on sports… I would rather pay you a million dollars a year to write some amusing blogs on MySpace for me to read when I am bored out of my mind. LOL
The writer of this sorry article really HAS to be a Cleveland Cavaliers fan scared out of his pants in fear of losing LeBron to the Nets in 2010.
Thank you, versifiervt , for setting the record straight.
I know people from Cleveland have been heart-broken over the past few decades or so… but what good does it do to start bashing on other teams???
Worry about your own teams and on devising a much better plan to keep LeBron by the time 2010 comes…
Because by then… as much as Cleveland HATES to see LeBron wearing a YANKEES cap with great Yankee Pride at Cleveland Indians games… and admitting to the public about New York being his number one most favorite city with Brooklyn being his number one most favorite borough… (Cleveland DOESN’T even make his Top 5)… you’re all gonna really hate it when he’s dropping 50 points on your Cleveland Cavaliers, while wearing a NETS uniform as Jay-Z and Beyonce sit courtside by the Nets bench and cheer him on! YEAH!
Owen
July 21, 2008
Must have been posted on True Hoop…..
Evan
July 21, 2008
Did we get a linky from TrueHoops today or something? The comments are truly inane.
Evan
July 21, 2008
(apparently it took me more than 13 minutes to read through the comments whle multitasking)
LBJfan23
July 21, 2008
Did Chicago ever think they would ever see MJ wearing another jersey? Did Orlando ever think they would ever see Shaq wearing another jersey? Did Philadelphia ever think they would ever see AI wearing another jersey? Did Minnesota ever think they would ever see KG wearing another jersey? Did Toronto ever think they would ever see VC wearing another jersey? And at the time, Carter was to Toronto just as LeBron is to Cleveland right now… The whole entire city’s HERO. In fact, at the time… Carter was to Canada just as Jordan was to the US during his Bulls tenure… The whole entire country’s HERO.
The point is… NO ONE in those respected places would’ve ever thought of a time coming when their HERO was going to leave them… And even if it was to somehow just pop up in their minds, they would probably pray to God that it wouldn’t ever happen.
But hey… That’s Life. THINGS HAPPEN.
NBA. Where **** happens.
Jeff
July 21, 2008
LBJ will and should leave Cleveland for parts unknown. I’m sure the Nets will be giving their all to get him, but so will many others. Cleveland’s management has consistently shown that they are not great judges of talent and chemistry. They’ve made efforts to make trades, but consistently fail to upgrade the team. LBJ can see that, and when his contract is over he’ll try to find someone who’s been doing a better job at building their team. Watch out for Kevin Pritchard in 2010. He’s a sly one.
jabez
July 21, 2008
The Nets are in rebuilding mode. They are assembling young talent and will be looking to attract a marquee free agent to fill their new stadium. Is the talent good enough to do this? Berri is driving by his rear view mirror when he attempts to analyze the talent level of a team of very young players by looking at their past stats. They are just getting started– you need to analyze leading and not trailing stats. I take Rod Thorn over any stat geek in making that call. The vets like Hayes, Simmons, and Najera are clearly not the core of the team. Unlike the Knicks (or theCavs, for that matter), the Nets are building a team the right way, LeBron or not. The Nets will be lucky to get 35 wins this season, but are clearly on the right track. Berri will be able to let us know only after they get there using his methodology.
LBJfan23
July 21, 2008
Hey Berri… Be an accountant or somethin. A Math professor. A scientist. I don’t care which one…
JUST DON’T WRITE ANYMORE ARTICLES ON SPORTS… FOR THE LOVE OF GOD… PLEASE DON’T.
ilikeflowers
July 21, 2008
Thanks for the extra helpings of stupid LBJfan23. jabez gets a shout out for the tasty-funny side of devastating ignorance as well.
I envy you two and your magical worlds of perpetual childhood mystery, where reason and evidence are beyond one’s grasp.
jimbo
July 21, 2008
with the exception of the nets 2 recent teams that made the finals, they have been ‘tanking’ for years before and since. i stopped going 15 years ago, too many 42-19 1st quarter scores. no, they got plenty of my money, but no more. if jersey had any balls we’d make them leave for brooklyn now, and by the way, take the devils with them. $500,ooo,ooo dollars for the new arena, IN NEWARK, a complete waste of money. no noticeable increase in devil attendence in a new arena. imagine how bad it will get when they are bad.
Jack Wilson
July 22, 2008
http://nbainsidestuff.wordpress.com/2008/07/19/great-classic-commericals/
Jack Wilson
July 22, 2008
Marcus Williams just got traded to the Golden State Warriors. http://nbainsidestuff.wordpress.com/2008/07/22/marcus-williams-traded-to-the-golden-state-warriors/