On August 10th the USA Basketball Men’s Senior National Team will begin the 2008 Olympics with a game against China. The hope is that the Senior Team will fulfill the dreams of basketball fans in the USA and conclude the Beijing Olympics with a gold medal. In other words, it’s hoped that the Senior Team can remind people of the Dream Teams from the 20th century.
Dream Team History
Last August I noted that the 2007 Senior National Team was the best USA team since 1996. This was determined by looking at the average Wins Produced per 48 minutes [WP48] of each Senior National Team since 1992 (when NBA players first started competing in the Olympics). Here are the results I reported last year:
1992 Dream Team: 0.317 average WP48
1996 Dream Team: 0.277 average WP48
2000 Dream Team: 0.189 average WP48
2004 Dream Team: 0.165 average WP48
2006 Dream Team: 0.200 average WP48
2007 Dream Team: 0.228 average WP48
As the above list indicates, the quality of the Dream Team decline from 1992 to 2004. And as I argued last summer, it was this decline in quality – as opposed to improvements in the quality of the competition – that I believe primarily led to worsening of observed outcomes for Team USA.
The 2006 Team -which took the bronze medal in the FIBA World Championship – stopped the decline. This team, though, was only comparable to the 2000 team; a Dream Team that came within a failed Lithuanian three-point shot from missing out on the gold medal.
The 2007 edition continued the progress in the right direction. And as Table One indicates, the 2008 Dream Team finally approaches the dominant teams of 1992 and 1996.
Table One: The 2008 Dream Team
To put the 2008 edition in perspective it is useful to look back on the past Olympic Dream Teams.
Table Two: The 1992 Dream Team
Table Three: The 1996 Dream Team
Table Four: The 2000 Dream Team
Table Five: The 2004 Dream Team
Looking through these tables we see that
the 1992 edition
– employed two players with +0.400 WP48 marks
– employed five more players with +0.300 WP48 marks
– and employed three more players with +0.200 WP48 marks
the 1996 edition
– employed one player with a +0.400 WP48 mark
– employed four more players with +0.300 WP48 marks
– and employed four more players with +0.200 WP48 marks
the 2000 edition
– did not employ a player with a +0.400 WP48 mark
– employed two players with +0.300 WP48 marks
– and employed three more players with +0.200 WP48 marks
the 2004 edition
– did not employ a player with a +0.400 WP48 mark
– employed one player with a +0.300 WP48 mark
– and employed three players with a +0.200 mark.
And one should add, the 2004 team was led in scoring by Allen Iverson, a player who posted a 0.020 WP48 in 2003-04 (and who only shot 37.8% during the 2004 Olympic games).
When we look at the 2008 edition we see a level of production that clearly eclipses the 2000 and 2004 editions; and is quite reminiscent of what we saw from the first two Dream Teams. Specifically, the current Senior Team
– employs one player with +0.400 WP48 marks
– employs three more players with +0.300 WP48 marks
– and employs three players with +0.200 WP48 marks
Even Better?
The average WP48 on the 2008 team is 0.250, which is the best mark since 1996.
Two players on the 2008 edition, though, might be better than Table One reports. Dwyane Wade was hurt in 2007-08 and consequently only posted a 0.136 WP48. When healthy he’s quite a bit better, as his 0.291 WP48 in 2006-07 indicates.
And then there is Carmelo Anthony. A few weeks ago I noted that there are signs that Melo is finally the productive star people have always envisioned. In the first half of the 2007-08 season Anthony posted numbers quite comparable to what he did in 2006-07. This means that Melo was a bit above average.
In the second half of this past season, though, his shooting efficiency improved. Plus his rebounding increased, his turnovers were down, and his steals were up. As a result, Melo’s second half WP48 in 2007-08 was 0.245.
If both Wade and Anthony are +0.200 players, then the 2008 edition has nine players who post per-minute productivity numbers that are twice the NBA average (average WP48 is 0.100). And if we consider that Chris Bosh was a +0.200 player in 2006-07 (and quite close in 2007-08), the number of “perfect players” (a team of 0.200 WP48 players would be expected to win every game in an NBA season) rivals the numbers employed in 1992 and 1996.
When we go back to average WP48 we again see the 2008 team is indeed quite dreamy. If we consider Melo’s second half performance and what Wade and Bosh did in 2006-07, then the average WP48 in 2008 rises to 0.269. This is just a shade below what we saw in1996.
In sum, when you look at the quality of the 2008 edition it is hard not to be optimistic about this particular USA Basketball Men’s Senior National Team. Yes, the level of international competition has improved. But this competition is going to be met by a team that rivals the great Dream Teams of the 1990s. And one suspects, even if the teams the USA face have an abundance of international experience, the sheer talent level of the 2008 Dream Team will be enough to take the gold medal in Beijing.
By the way, as we all know, the Internet is global. This means people from around the world read The Wages of Wins Journal. I would very much like to hear what basketball fans around the world think about the Olympics. So if you have the time, please leave a thought (or two or three) in the comments section.
– DJ
The WoW Journal Comments Policy
Our research on the NBA was summarized HERE.
The Technical Notes at wagesofwins.com provides substantially more information on the published research behind Wins Produced and Win Score
Wins Produced, Win Score, and PAWSmin are also discussed in the following posts:
Simple Models of Player Performance
What Wins Produced Says and What It Does Not Say
Introducing PAWSmin — and a Defense of Box Score Statistics
Finally, A Guide to Evaluating Models contains useful hints on how to interpret and evaluate statistical models.
Wages of Wins Journal 
KnickerBlogger
July 27, 2008
Compared to last year, Carmelo’s stats are identical except for two areas: 3p% and dreb. There’s no doubt that his 3p% helped him (which improved his ts% from .552 to .568).
But the improvement in rebounding seems to be due to Anthony’s teammates, and not so much with Anthony in particular. In 2007, the Nuggets had Nene Hilario in their rotation, and Reggie Evans on the bench – both good rebounders. But the next year those minutes were taken by Kenyon Martin and the rest of the Denver bench who were below average rebounders.
So it seems a portion of Carmelo’s improvement was due to the change in rotation and the greater number of rebounds available to him. Granted Carmelo did grab these extra rebounds, but it may not be an improvement in him per se as much as a change in his environment.
dberri
July 27, 2008
Knickerblogger,
Not to discount your explanation…. but it is important to note that at the midpoint of this season Carmelo was still pretty much what he was last year. If it was the departure of Reggie Evans and Nene that makes all the difference, why wasn’t Melo different in the first half?
I don’t have an answer to this question. I also don’t know why Melo is different in the second half. This gets at a point we make in the book. The stats can tell you how productive a player is, but you have to watch the player to know why the player is productive.
Lior
July 27, 2008
The main problem with the current USA team is tactics: the team is has very few big men, which means that many players will be playing out of their regular (NBA) position. This will probably be a tactical issue (interior defense may be a problem), but also affects statistical predictions.
At the very least, WP48 numbers are normally adjusted for position. Since Anthony will play PF, Bryant will share minutes between SG and SF (e.g. he’s starting at SF while Lebron is out) and Boozer and Bosh are backing up Howard in addition to Anthony (in the NBA they are a SF, SG and two PFs, respectively), the team is probably somewhat weaker than your predictions.
mrparker
July 28, 2008
While you make a good point Lior, I feel that those sort of effects become muted as the players being utilized become better. What’s make a wp48 player a .3 or better player is ultimately their versatility. Versatility is the key to playing multiple minutes.
Maybe Kobe can’t rebound as well as a sf as he does as a guard but his ball handling ability, stealing ability, and passing ability are all superior to what almost any small forward can offer. As long as he is not physically outmatched by other smal forwards then it shouldn’t matter if he’s playing sf or sg.
ibrahim binshahbal
July 28, 2008
nice blog
Ken
July 28, 2008
It looks as if David Robinson was an incredible player. Could you possibly do an entry on the admiral some time? I’d bet he’s been underrated in his career, with almost everyone giving the credit for the ’99 title to Duncan, saying that Robinson was soft, etc. …
Joe
July 28, 2008
@lior
Good point. Perhaps the USA team being smaller is a result of the different roles of players in international play dictated by the different 3 point shot length. Maybe that is why the USA team is playing predominantly SFs at the PF position.
stephanie
July 29, 2008
I’d love to see WP48 discussions of older players. How much were those mid 90s Rockets carried by Hakeem the Dream? How did Magic and Bird’s numbers fluctuate? How productive was Bill Walton at his peak? Sidney Moncrief? etc.
mrparker
July 29, 2008
I think the player most will be surprised with is David Robinson. He had an incredible career. Was he another KG? The problem with his image is that when he got help in came in the form of another hall of fame level talent. Timmy D ended up recieving the lions share of the credit though during the playoff run Robinson outplayed Duncan in terms of shooting efficiency(Duncan played > 20% more minuted than Robinson and shot 50% more while only going to the line 20% more), Rebounding per minute, steals per minute, blocks per minute, and assists per minute. I wonder what win score would have to say about that.
William
July 29, 2008
Prof. Berri,
Is there any chance you could update your NBA-wide list of Wins Produced/WP48 for the 07-08 season? I know you’re still working your way through team reviews, and I look forward to your analysis about each and every team. Selfishly, I’d just appreciate having a complete-season look at each player as I evaluate the various off-season wheelings and dealings. (This is the format I’d envisioned you use for the update: http://www.wagesofwins.com/AllPlayersMid0708.html)
I’m a huge fan of this blog and completely understand if you have too much on your plate to provide the 450-person list! Just wanted to toss the request out there.
Thanks for all your hard work.
Josh
July 29, 2008
Prof. Berri,
After reviewing the WP stats for the 1992 and 1996 Dream Teams (both of which featured Stockton, Malone, Robinson, Barkley and Pippen) I find it unusual that Karl Malone’s WP increases markedly over this time period while those of his contemporaries decline, however slightly.
I would love to see an analysis of Karl Malone’s career that would allow us to examine the late-career performance surge that allowed him to achieve MVP-level performance well into his thirties. It seems unprecedented, particularly when even Michael Jordan’s performance began a slow yet steady decline from 1991-on.
My completely unsubstantiated theory on the mid-nineties Karl Malone is that he was using performance enhancers (hence his gigantic physique during the latter stages of his career). It makes sense given the changes in his physical appearance and the shenanigans going on in professional baseball and football during this time.
Thanks.
GoldShammGold
August 3, 2008
Josh,
I think you’re onto something there vis a vis Malone….
reservoirgod
August 10, 2008
test
reservoirgod
August 10, 2008
Dwyane Wade has been the most productive player on the team after 6 games (5 exhibition, 1 preliminary round) while LeBron James is 2nd. LeBron missed one game, but he would probably still be second to Wade since he has the lower WP40.
Kobe has played the most minutes (and gotten the most publicity), but he’s only been the 9th most productive player on the squad. The most underrated player so far appears to be Chris Bosh. He’s only played 77 minutes (which ranks 8th on Team USA) in 6 games but is 4th in Wins Produced and 2nd in WP40. In fact, he’s been Team USA’s best center (Dwight Howard is 5th in WP with 43.9 more minutes). Bosh had the best WP40 on the team against China – an incredible 1.117!