When the 2007 season ended the top running backs – in RB Score per game – were Brian Westbrook, Adrian Peterson, LaDainian Tomlinson, Fred Taylor, and Joseph Addai.
Table One: Final RB Score Rankings for 2007
After four games in 2008, four of these five players are below average. And Peterson is only ranked 8th in the league. At this point the top running backs — in terms of Net Points per game (essentially the same as RB Score per game) – are Frank Gore (7th last season), Steven Jackson (10th last season), Julius Jones (25th last season), Michael Turner (unranked last season), and Earnest Graham (16th last season). So there has been a fair amount of turnover among running backs.
Table Two: Running Back Rankings for Week Four
When we turn to quarterbacks, we see a somewhat similar story. Here are the top five at the end of 2007: Tom Brady, Peyton Manning, David Garrard, Tony Romo, and Brett Favre.
Table Three: Final QB Score Rankings for 2007
And since I did the analysis for 2006, here are the top five from two seasons ago: Peyton Manning, Donovan McNabb, Dree Brees, Damon Huard, and Tony Romo.
Table Four: Final QB Score Rankings for 2006
When we turn to 2008 – after just four games – we see one familiar name:
Drew Brees (11th last season), Philip Rivers (17th last season), Jay Cutler (8th last season), Tony Romo (4th last season), and Eli Manning (27th last season).
Table Five: Quarterback Rankings for Week Four
Of all these names, Tony Romo is the only player in the top five this season to show up in the top five the past two seasons. So does this make Romo the best quarterback in the game?
I don’t have an answer to that question. What I do see when I look over all these tables is the remarkable inconsistency in numbers from football. And that’s a familiar story.
In basketball people seem to expect the numbers to be able to tell you how many wins the Clippers will have in February of next season. In other words, the expectations seem quite high. In football, all we see is inconsistency (in other words, there seems to be little expectation that accurate predictions can be made). And this is because so much of what a running back or quarterback does depends upon his teammates. The performance of these two skill positions depends upon the performance of the offensive line, wide receivers (and the other skill positions), as well as the play calling of the coaches and the performance of the opposing defense. All of these factors can dramatically impact the performance – and the numbers – of the quarterbacks and running backs that are analyzed.
Given this aspect of performance in the NFL we can expect some movement in the rankings this season. In fact, I think we can expect to see players who are currently ranked towards the bottom half of the rankings this season to move up.
So here are some questions I would like to see addressed in the comments:
- Which quarterback or quarterbacks, currently below average in the 2008 rankings, will finish the season above average?
- Which quarterback or quarterbacks, currently above average in the 2008 rankings, will finish the season below average?
- And what are the answers to these questions if we think about the running backs?
If you can, post your answers before the games are played on Sunday. If there is any consensus, we will look back on these answers when the season is over.
– DJ
The WoW Journal Comments Policy
For more on the Wages of Wins football metrics see
Consistent Inconsistency in Football
Football Outsiders and QB Score
The Value of Player Statistics in the NFL
Wages of Wins Journal 
Vince Gagliano
October 4, 2008
Okay, here my most educated guess at these questions:
Underrated QB: David Garrard
Even in spite of the inconsistency amongst quarterbacks, Garrard was very, very good at not throwing interceptions last year. He gets a chance to spike his numbers with games at Denver, at Cincy, at Detroit, at Houston, and Cleveland. With almost half the schedule consisting winless teams and/or porous defenses, he could be slated for a turnaround.
Overrated QB: Peyton Manning
Yes, he is still above average this season. Yes, he can punch a one-way ticket to the Hall of Fame. Yes, he does lead the league in most 4000 yard passing seasons.
But Archie Manning’s eldest is losing the battle to father time, and the Colts’ struggles have been no fluke, what with only 17.3 points per game.
At that to games at Green Bay, at Tennessee, at Pittsburgh, at San Diego, Baltimore, New England, and Tennessee at home, and it adds up to trouble. He does have two games with Houston, one with Cincy, and one with Detroit, but that’s about as good as it gets.
Expect the pendulum of consistency to swing the other way for Manning in the near future.
Underrated RB: Marshawn Lynch
There is one advantage that the ex-Golden Bear has that Darren McFadden doesn’t have: Lynch already has one year in the league, while the former two-time Heisman Trophy runner-up is still getting adjusted to the NFL pace.
Buffalo hasn’t even played a division game yet, and the AFC East, well, doesn’t exactly match its counterpart in team strength. And games against Denver, San Francisco, Kansas City, AND Cleveland? Two games with an aging Patriots linebacking corps? And four games with the rebuilding Jets and Dolphins? With a schedule like that and his relative youth in the league, how can his numbers NOT go up?
Overrated RB: Warrick Dunn
He is playing his 12th NFL season in the league, and for the running back position, that reflects age.
The good news? Tampa Bay has another above-average running back in Earnest Graham.
The bad news? When you have two good running backs, in time, one of them is going to get fewer carries. And right now, Graham is averaging almost SIX yards per carry.
To gain some perspective, most coaches are thrilled if their running backs only give them four or five yards per carry. So six after riding the bench three years…is really good. And for Dunn, it’s really bad.
Vince Gagliano
October 5, 2008
Here are some other candidates for each category:
Overrated QB: Matt Ryan
Right on the bubble. Just one or two games from dipping.
Underrated RB: Ladainian Tomlinson
Still a threat to make it 8 1000-yard seasons in a row.
Overrated RB: Larry Johnson
Denver had a horrific defense. Will the offensive line hold up enough for him to maintain his pace