Last week the New York Knicks officially entered the LeBron James sweepstakes. This sweepstakes exists because many think LeBron is likely to leave Cleveland when his contract expires in 2010. Why would LeBron depart Cleveland? At this point, King James and Cleveland have yet to surpass 50 wins in a season. Last year the Cavaliers only won 45 games, a mark that was 21 games behind the Boston Celtics. Given such a gap, it seems unlikely LeBron can contend for a title in Cleveland. And if LeBron is not going to contend with the Cavaliers, why would he stay in such a small market?
Lebron’s Motivation to Leave
Well, something appears to have happened since the end of the 2007-08 season. Cleveland – after 13 games – has the third best won-loss record in the NBA. And there is reason to think they should be ranked just a bit higher.
To see this point, let’s briefly look at Boston. Last year the Celtics finished with a 10.95 efficiency differential (offensive efficiency minus defensive efficiency). This year Boston – after 15 games – has slipped to a 7.65 mark. This is still quite good, but not quite what we saw from the Celtics in 2007-08.
Although Boston has declined a bit, they are still far ahead of what Cleveland did last year. In 2007-08 the Cavaliers had a differential of -0.38. So although Cleveland finished above 0.500 last year, their efficiency differential was consistent with a losing team.
When look at Wins Produced, we see why this team was so poor. Essentially the Cavaliers had LeBron James, and then not much else. As I noted last July…
What did the Cavaliers have without LeBron? LeBron’s Wins Produced was 20.2 last season. The rest of the Cavs produced 20.0 wins. Given the minutes everyone played, everyone not named King James posted a 0.057 WP48. This is not the worst mark in the league for a supporting cast, but it’s clearly below average.
The lack of a supporting cast in Cleveland suggested that LeBron had little reason to stay. And it didn’t look like Cleveland was trying hard to change the supporting cast this summer. In the off-season the Cavaliers primary move was adding Maurice Williams. Williams posted a 0.122 WP48 [Wins Produced per 48 minutes] last year. Although this is an above average mark, it didn’t look like this move was going to dramatically change the quality of LeBron’s teammates.
Contending Cleveland
But clearly something has happened to the LeBronettes (is that a term yet?). After 13 games in 2008-09, Cleveland has an efficiency differential of 8.89. Yes, Cleveland has completely closed the gap with Boston and currently ranks ahead of the defending champs.
So how was this possible? For an answer we turn to Table Two, which reports both the Cavaliers Wins Produced in 2008-09 and what this team could have expected had its players performed as they did in the past.
Table One: The Cleveland Cavaliers after 13 games in 2008-09
As Table Two reports, the Cavaliers are on pace to win about 63 games. And if their players did as they did in the past, Cleveland would be on pace to win 62 games.
Okay, that seems odd. The team’s efficiency differential – and Wins Produced – suggests that Cleveland should have won only 40 or 41 games last season. So where did the extra 20 wins come from? Here are some possible answers.
- Last season Anderson Varejao only played 1,319 minutes, posting a 0.136 WP48. This year he is on pace to play 2,113 minutes. Plus he has improved, posting a 0.199 WP48. Actually, if we look back at 2006-07 – where Varejao’s WP48 stood at 0.188 WP48 – we see that “improved” is not the word. After a season characterized by a contract dispute and some health issues, Varejao has actually just reverted to form.
- The same story can be told about Ben Wallace. Last year Big Ben – in a season characterized by a trade and health issues – posted a 0.177 WP48. This year he has “improved” to 0.287, a mark that is remarkably similar to the 0.281 WP48 Wallace recorded in 2006-07.
- And then there is Delonte West. West’s WP48 last season was 0.150. This year his WP48 stands at 0.153. Although his per-minute production is about the same, West is offering more simply because he is playing more minutes. Last year he was acquired in midseason, so he only played 806 minutes. This year he is on pace to play 2,807 minutes, so his Wins Production will increase dramatically.
The changes in production (and/or minutes) from these three players explains virtually the entire 20 win gap.
One should note that one player is left off the list. Maurice Williams – Cleveland’s major offseason acquisition — has really not made much difference. His current WP48 of 0.071 is below average, and not much different from what the Cavaliers were getting from guard Devin Brown last season [WP48 of 0.080 in 2007-08].
M. Williams is not the only Cavalier player to decline. Daniel Gibson is also offering less. The declines of M. Williams and Gibson, though, are offset by improvements in the play of Sasha Pavlovic, Wally Szczerbiak, and LeBron James. Pavlovic and Szczerbiak have gone from very, very bad to just bad. LeBron, though, has gone from amazing to… well, something beyond amazing. Last year LeBron’s WP48 was a career high. This year, despite a small decline in shooting efficiency, LeBron is offering even more. After thirteen games – primarily due to an improvement in rebounding — his WP48 stands at 0.378.
The Reward to Losing
Such a high level of productivity, at such a young age, clearly causes NBA executives to act goofy. The Knicks have just given up on two seasons of basketball in the hopes of landing LeBron. But if James is already playing on one of the best teams in the NBA – and thus far it looks like that is the case – why would he want to leave the Cavaliers? After all, as he learned the first few years of his career, he is going to need help to win. Right now he has that help in Cleveland. It’s not clear that the teams clearing cap space to acquire his services can offer him a better shot at a title.
All this means that the Knicks might be losing now in an effort to acquire… Chris Bosh? Dwayne Wade? Amare Stoudemire? All of these are good players. But they are not LeBron. And at this point, it looks like Cleveland is the frontrunner to keep King James.
Let me close by noting that even if Cleveland can maintain its small advantage over Boston, and it’s Cleveland that ultimately makes it to the NBA Finals, I don’t think the Cavaliers can defeat the LA Lakers in a seven game series. Yes, LeBron is more productive than Kobe (do we need a post on that topic?). But Kobe’s supporting cast is better than the LeBronettes. And given the age of Kobe’s team, this might still be true even if LeBron acquires new LeBronettes in a new destination.
– DJ
The WoW Journal Comments Policy
Our research on the NBA was summarized HERE.
The Technical Notes at wagesofwins.com provides substantially more information on the published research behind Wins Produced and Win Score
Wins Produced, Win Score, and PAWSmin are also discussed in the following posts:
Simple Models of Player Performance
What Wins Produced Says and What It Does Not Say
Introducing PAWSmin — and a Defense of Box Score Statistics
Finally, A Guide to Evaluating Models contains useful hints on how to interpret and evaluate statistical models.
Wages of Wins Journal 
Duff Soviet Union
November 25, 2008
But, but, but…..he needs to play in New York. Only New York can possibly make him a superstar. No one is ever going to know who this guy is unless he plays in New York.
Vince Gagliano
November 25, 2008
Dave:
We know that the Lakers are good, but here’s why:
LA has adopted a similar approach to the Washington Wizards, where the team’s top three or four top players produce at roughly the same level. That being said, there is a wild-card possibility here that could end up altering the race.
Bryant is a free agent at the end of the season. If he decides to leave and play overseas for a larger contract, that suddenly puts the Lakers right into the mix to take a crack at the free-agent class.
New York provides the cosmopolitan appeal that would suit James well. But LA isn’t half bad, either. Besides, playing for a coach with 10 or more championships would be very hard to pass up for a superstar seeking NBA immortality.
Besides, with the way they’re playing, it’s not like the Lakers are going to completely fall apart; they would still be a 50-win team in playoff contention.
Okay, this is far-fetched. But it’s obvious that clearing cap-space is in vogue right now.
And even if the Knicks don’t land LeBron, they still have the space to sign two or three members of the free agent class, which, I should mention, could also include Kevin Durant, Al Horford, and the other members of the 2007 draft class.
If New York signs, say, Bosh (.280 WP48 this season), Amare Stoudemire (.240), and keeps Chris Duhon (.160), then maybe, just maybe, they have the makings of an East Coast Lakers type of team.
Tball
November 25, 2008
The Celtics and Cavs have each had a tough road to date with an opponents average winning percentage of .543 and .573, respectively. And the Celtics have endured a tough 8 games in 12 days stretch. It will be interesting to see how these teams compare when their schedules even out a bit more during the holiday season. These teams are essentially the same ones that met in the playoffs (in a series decided by home court advantage), particularly if Mo Williams is not having much of an impact.
In the early going, Pierce/Allen/Garnett have seen about a 30% drop in their assists, which may be part of the reason their offensive efficiency is below league average. Garnett, in particular, with a career average of 4.4 a/gm, averaged over 3 assists last year, but has only had two games with more than 3 assists this year.
Christopher
November 25, 2008
“Yes, LeBron is more productive than Kobe (do we need a post on that topic?).”
No, we don’t. Lebron Bryant is better than Kobe James :) Everyone knows that.
Alex
November 25, 2008
Granted, half the league has opened cap space for 2010, but how about some speculation into everyone’s favorite team, the Pistons? :-) Iverson and Wallace both become free agents next year, which is a year too early by my math, and Rip is up in 2010. So what do the Pistons do next year to keep enough room for LeBron but still keep the team attractive to him? And if they go after LeBron, what do they do with Tayshaun?
Nate
November 25, 2008
Alex: Hamilton’s contract no longer expires in 2010; they extended him the same day of the Iverson trade. I think it’s clear that Iverson is gone unless the team starts looking a good deal better than it does now. That leaves the (currently struggling) Stuckey and the maybe-he’ll-be-OK-someday Will Bynum at PG, which might necessitate some sort of move. I suspect that they’ll be able to talk Rasheed into staying one more year before he retires. At that point, I think they’re much more likely to sign Bosh than LeBron (unless their current young bigs progress a good bit in the meantime). If they DO get LeBron, I don’t think there’s any reason he and Prince can’t both be on the floor at the same time, since they’re both quality perimeter defenders.
Vince Gagliano
November 25, 2008
Depending upon how Rodney Stuckey develops, Detroit could go with a lineup of LeBron at the point, Hamilton at shooting guard, and Prince at small forward. He’s already one of the top assist men at his position, as is.
They could even play LeBron at power forward and Sheed at center. Or, if they sign Bosh as well, it could be LeBron, Hamilton, Prince, Sheed, and Bosh at 1,2,3,4, and 5.
dberri
November 25, 2008
I find the lack of faith in Allen Iverson to be disturbing. Obviously, the Answer is the last piece of the championship puzzle in Detroit. So I can’t imagine why people here think the Pistons are even thinking about LeBron. What about the Pistons record with Iverson suggests they would even consider going in another direction?
j
November 25, 2008
I’d be all in favor of a line-up with your smalls being Hamilton, Prince and Lebron, but on that team the traditional position determinations would be meaningless. You wouldn’t have a conventional point initiating the offense.
In that case I would make Hamilton the 6th man, have the smallest guy on the court be Prince and run a high-low post offense with whomever the other team’s point guard tries to guard. Lebron or Prince could easily do a servicable job on most of the points in the league, and even with Chris Paul, who is probably the best point guard we’ve ever seen outside of Magic and the Big O, there’s no way he’d be able to generate on offense what he was giving up on defense. You’d have to double every time, and even so, both Lebron and Prince are excellent passers, and also quite skilled at turning the away from the double team. (Prince showed this when Philly tried to guard him with Korver a few years ago in the playoffs.) Instead of surrounding Lebron with a traditional team, I think that’s the best way to use his skill and athletic ability. There have been a limited number of those types of players available in the NBA in recent memory (Marion, AK47, Ariza, Quentin Richardson all come to mind though), but there is a large talent pool to choose from if that were to be your offense, since the NBA tends not to value post skills in smaller players.
For instance, take a guy like Hakim Warrick, whose game is that of a limited power forward, but who has the athletic ability to guard shooting guards easily. You play him next to Lebron and suddenly you’ve taken a player who is below average in the NBA and you’ve made him almost unguardable because there’s only a three shooting guards who could guard him in the post, and they all happen to be on the same team (McGrady, Battier, and Artest), and if you guard him with a shooting guard, well then that puts a point guard on Lebron or whoever you have at small forward. (Of course, the Rockets would also have the luxury of putting McGrady at the point-ie. shouldn’t they be running this offense anyway?) And Warrick’s a player you could have for almost nothing on the dollar.
There are any number of players who are out of the NBA, or who have no role on their teams like PJ Tucker, Derrick Byars, Jared Dudley, Alando Tucker, Hassan Adams, Julius Hodge, Julian Wright, Tyrus Thomas (guarding small forwards in that offense he would actually be a valuable player) that could be had for cheap, and would have value in such an offense. Lebron could allow a team the ability to actually use these players strengths, while not spending near the amount of money on your “role players” because you’d be looking for something different than the rest of the league.
joeA
November 25, 2008
Seriously people!
Why would Lebron go to Detroit? He would never leave Cleveland to go to Detroit, no matter what the financial consdiderations were. The cost to his image (which he is very conscious o) for leaving one midwestern town for another a few hours waay) would be greater than whatever extra the Pistons were paying. If he leaves Cleveland, it will only be to go to a big market team for marketing purposes.
The only way I see it as even possible is if Detroit was somehow able to get Bosh (or Amare) first, and then make a competitive offer for Lebron. He would need to see a guaranteed championship.
Still though, sorry, it’s just not happening. Don’t waste your time figuring out Piston’s lineups that include Lebron.
John W. Davis
November 25, 2008
I think Lebron will stay in Cleveland. He will be what 26? If he signs for another 4 years and still doesn’t get it done he can leave at 30 at the height of his career.
P.S. Lebron wants to earn his championship. He doesn’t want it given to him because he is playing with two other 2010 Max Contract Free Agents.
Frank
November 25, 2008
The title of this article is pretty poor. LeBron has never stated a desire to leave, not even once. The media like to talk like it’s there, but it isn’t.
He may leave for a better team, no doubt. But he probably won’t. People are going to be disappointed when Bosh, Wade, LBJ, etc. all stay home. ESPN gets the ratings in the meantime though.
Sylvan Zarwell
November 25, 2008
Two things: Zydrunas Ilgauskas & Ben Wallace. By 2010 they will have aged themselves out of basketball or at least usefulness. In other words the Cavs won’t have a frontcourt in two years.
Shawn Ryan
November 25, 2008
“Yes, LeBron is more productive than Kobe (do we need a post on that topic?)”
YES, YES, YES, YES, YES. We do need a post on that topic.
Shawn Ryan
November 25, 2008
I agree that there is no way that LeBron goes to Detroit. He would be labeled a Judas in Cleveland (Similar to the Favre to the Vikings nonsense this summer).
And the Cavs are going to have to replace either Big Z or Big Ben by 2010, but not both because Andy can absorb more minutes. So if the Cavs can manage to add another quality pivot man and another above average guard, production should remain fairly consistent. They should be able to pull that off though if they make good decisions, because both Big Z and Ben are coming off the books before that. That is over 25 mil to work with
Vince Gagliano
November 25, 2008
Between the two players, James is the slightly better shooter, having an adjusted field goal percentage of 49.8% for his career as compared to Bryant’s 48.6%.
Also, between the two, James gets more boards, dishes out more assists, steals the ball more, blocks more shots, and gets fouled less, although the boards and blocks can be partially attributed to a height advantage.
Bryant is better with respect to turnovers, free throw percentage, and perimeter scoring.
Josh
November 26, 2008
Kobe and James are both great players. They both put up big numbers night after night and they both put on a show for the fans. James is as strong and agile as they get – he can drive the lane and finish at the basket with a fury. Kobe has incredible court awareness and can pretty much do anything he wants with the ball at any time – there are very few defenders in the league who can stop him. It’s tough to compare them equally … they are both totally sweet.
The thing to keep in mind is that there is an age difference there. James is where Kobe was 7 years ago … Kobe isn’t the young buck he once was, so his game has evolved quite a bit. Obviously, from a long-term mind-set, James will be around longer – so he is the younger, stronger pick.
barry
November 26, 2008
a few other IMO relevant factors:
1) the cavs have only THREE players that started the 2007 season – LBJ, Z & gibson. everyone else was elsewhere.
2) hughes is elsewhere – this is a guy who was quoted as preferring to play “his game” rather than have his team win. there is now tremendous chemistry in the clubhouse.
kevin
November 26, 2008
“Kobe has incredible court awareness and can pretty much do anything he wants with the ball at any time …”
So, Kobe decided on his own to shoot .405 against boston in the Finals? Just to prove he could occasionally miss a shot or two, if he wanted to?
Oren
November 26, 2008
Maybe I’m misunderstanding but it looks like your data from 06-07 says that Wallace’s WS48 was .266(and not .281) and Varajao’s was .166(and not .181).
Isn’t Varajao leaving the Cavs as soon as he can? I seem to remember a contract dispute and lots of bad blood. The front court will need a lot of work if he goes.
dberri
November 26, 2008
Oren,
The difference is related to what I use as the position averages. There were some posts where I looked at 06-07 performances with 07-08 position averages. For this post, I compared 06-07 performances to 06-07 averages, which I think is the best way to do it.
Josh
November 26, 2008
Kevin,
Kobe shooting .405 in the finals last year was a direct result of good defense. The Celtics proved they had a solid defensive team that totally crushed the Lakers in the Finals. Every time Kobe touched the ball during that series, he was swarmed by 2, 3, sometimes 4 defenders. Unfortunately, his team mates were not knocking down crucial shots when he would dish it out. Kobe took tons of horrible shots in desperation to score when no one else would.
kevin
November 26, 2008
So he CAN’T pretty much do anything he wants on the basketball court then?
Then why did you write he could?
Josh
November 26, 2008
Haha … in a normal game where somebody guards somebody, yes he can do anything.
If they are going to throw a whole team at him … of course he’s not going to be affective – only someone super-human could take on a team single-handedly.
All I’m saying is that he can take anyone in the League head to head and dominate. He’s proven it time and time again. Basketball, however, is a team sport … so if your team is sucking, it doesn’t matter what skills you possess … you’re going to lose.
andrew g
November 27, 2008
Superhuman? Someone like Lebron?
Josh
November 28, 2008
Yeah. Well, if Lebron was superhuman … it would have been the Cav’s in the Finals last year against the Celtics …
Jacob Rosen
December 1, 2008
“Yeah. Well, if Lebron was superhuman … it would have been the Cav’s in the Finals last year against the Celtics …”
If LeBron was superhuman AND had a sick supporting cast like Kobe. Are you trying to compare LeBron and Kobe because the Lakers are a better team right now? You have to look at the two players with the context of their two teams. They play different positions first of all, and in no way shape or form should the fact that Lakers are better all-around be a reason why Kobe is better. Just look at the rosters:
Gasol, Bynum, Odom, Farmar, Vujacic, Radmonivic, Ariza, Fisher
vs.
Z, Wallace, Gibson, Mo Williams, Varejao, Pavlovic, West, Szczerbiak
You must be out of your mind to say that the Cavaliers supporting cast is even close to the Lakers. If LeBron leads the Cavaliers to the finals with that roster, he is up there with the greatest players ever, look it up, but not too many people have ever done that with such a sorry supporting cast. If Kobe leads the Lakers to the finals again with that roster, it proves that he is a decent star, but it doesn’t prove that he is superhuman.
I bet you that if a player like Joe Johnson, Rip Hamilton, or Brandon Roy was on the Lakers instead of Kobe, they would still be one of the top teams in the NBA and probably the favorites for the title.
Josh
December 10, 2008
I agree completely Jacob.
And that was my original point … that comparing Kobe and LeBron is retarded.
They are both outstanding players. We saw time and time again Kobe trying to do it all over the last few years … when he didn’t have a supporting cast, and in the end, he failed.
The same will happen to LeBron this year.
Although, they are playing very well with LeBron exploding this season.
I will say that overall, James is outplaying Bryant this season .. from what I’ve seen.