Before Allen Iverson came to town the Detroit Pistons were undefeated. In the ten games with “The Answer” the Pistons have been 5-5. The story told by the Pistons to explain this outcome is that the team simply hasn’t found the right “chemistry”. Here is how Iverson described the situation.
“(Iverson) talked Saturday about the importance of finding chemistry with a new team through practice.
“I’ve been through it before,” Iverson said. “I think the toughest part of it has been our schedule. We’ve been on the road a lot. That was tough. For me, it’s just getting a chance to settle in.
“The most important thing is getting more practice time.”
In an effort to get more practice time, Michael Curry – Detroit’s head coach – called for an additional practice session on Thanksgiving. Although I am sure the team was not happy with this decision, with but one exception, everyone made it in today. The lone exception was none other than Mr. Iverson.
Curry has said that Iverson will pay a “hefty” fine for missing practice. But I am not sure this is necessary. In fact, I think I agree with Iverson’s actions (not his words). Practice is probably not going to make much difference.
Iverson vs. Billups
To see my point, consider what Iverson has done this season, as well as across his career. For comparison purposes, let’s also consider the numbers Chauncey Billups – the primary player the Pistons gave up to acquire Iverson – has posted.
- Iverson Career (prior to this season): 0.090 WP48
- Iverson with the Nuggets in 2008-09: 0.083 WP48
- Iverson with the Pistons in 2008-09: 0.086 WP48
- Billups Career (prior to this season): 0.181 WP48
- Billups with the Pistons in 2008-09: 0.254 WP48
- Billups with the Nuggets in 2008-09: 0.225 WP48
When we look at Wins Produced per 48 minutes [WP48] for these players, we see that Billups has done more than Iverson. And this is the picture we see if we look at the numbers across each player’s career, as well as what each player has done this year.
Given the disparity in what these players offer, it’s not surprising the Pistons have struggled somewhat with Iverson (although I think they are better than a 0.500 team). And it’s not surprising the Nuggets have improved with Billups.
Changing the Story in Denver
Right now, though, the Pistons are in denial (at least publicly). As for the Nuggets, the denial has apparently ended.
The following article from the Denver Post — Point guard praise: Billups over A.I. – indicates that George Karl is no longer one of Iverson’s biggest fans:
Unquestionably, the Allen Iverson experiment produced some scintillating moments for the Nuggets and their fans. But the more coach George Karl watches Chauncey Billups run his offense – and watches Iverson lead the Pistons – it has become clearer that Iverson, well, wasn’t the answer.
“There are less bad plays, more solid plays,” Karl said. “I think the wasteful, cheap possessions that we used to have 10 to 15 a game, they don’t exist very much anymore.”
What always irked Karl was Iverson’s inability to run the offense like a general. Arguably, Iverson shot too much, and like Karl said, Denver could outscore about half the teams in the NBA. But when it came to beating the elite teams, the Nuggets had too many questions with “The Answer” – about his shot selection, his dedication to defense and his ability/inability to trust his teammates.
“We have contested-shot charts, bad-shot charts and cheap defensive possessions,” Karl said. “I would say that when A.I. was here, we had most games in the teens of contested, tough shots, sometimes in the 20s. And I don’t think we’ve had a double-digit one since (Billups has) been here.
“I don’t think there’s any question coaching a team for many minutes, without a passing and point guard mentality, is frustrating for a coach. Sometimes I saw something, but I couldn’t get it done on the court because I didn’t have a playmaker out there.”
But with Detroit, Karl thinks Iverson can thrive, because he is surrounded by more veteran playmakers and will trust his teammates, as opposed to forcing a shot he thought he had a better chance of making.
“A.I., at times, had trouble trusting the guy he’s throwing it to,” Karl said.
It’s important to note that Iverson had practice problems in Philadelphia with three different head coaches (Larry Brown, Chris Ford, and Maurice Cheeks). And he now has a problem with Curry. But he never had a problem with Karl (at least none that we have heard about). Despite consistently practicing with the Nuggets, though, Iverson only posted a 0.134 WP48 last season. This is above average, but less than what Billups offered in even his worst season in Detroit.
Now it’s certainly possible that practice makes perfect. But it seems unlikely, at this point in Iverson’s career, practice is going to transform “the Answer” into a great player. So maybe the Pistons shouldn’t be too upset when Iverson skips practice. Maybe he’s just telling Curry — despite what Iverson says publicly — that practice really isn’t going to help. And after “the Answer” departs Detroit, I suspect Curry will follow Karl’s lead and tell us that he agrees.
– DJ
The WoW Journal Comments Policy
Our research on the NBA was summarized HERE.
The Technical Notes at wagesofwins.com provides substantially more information on the published research behind Wins Produced and Win Score
Wins Produced, Win Score, and PAWSmin are also discussed in the following posts:
Simple Models of Player Performance
What Wins Produced Says and What It Does Not Say
Introducing PAWSmin — and a Defense of Box Score Statistics
Finally, A Guide to Evaluating Models contains useful hints on how to interpret and evaluate statistical models.
Wages of Wins Journal 
Byron
November 28, 2008
And this is why anyone who thinks we traded for Iverson in order to better our odds this year is a fool.
Serhat
November 28, 2008
The Pistons ranks first in guarding opponents’ point guards.
http://www.nbastuffer.com/_2008-2009_Version_-_Strenghts_and_Weaknesses_of_NBA_Teams.html
Serhat
November 28, 2008
I meant they rank worst. This should be something related to Iverson’s arrival.
mrparker
November 29, 2008
serhat,
Were they worst in guarding the other teams point guard last year? That should help in making the distinction
John W. Davis
November 30, 2008
Prof D. I love it. I’m ready for Iverson to permanently come off the bench.
I wish he skipped all the practices and just showed up to the games. That way he could play 25 mins and we could actually win more than half of our games.
-John W. Davis
David Friedman
December 19, 2008
How come no one has mentioned that the Pistons were without last year’s leading rebounder (McDyess) in all of these games? The Pistons’ rpg differential was down by more than 4 rpg without him but the Pistons are 5-1 since McDyess rejoined the team. Acting as if Detroit’s record is only caused by the Iverson-Billups swap is very biased, particularly since McDyess was technically included in the trade (with the understanding that he would be bought out, which means by rule that he could not come back to Detroit for 30 days).
The nice thing about this post is that when the Pistons start winning again (with McDyess) and the Nuggets regress to the same level that they were at with Iverson anyone who reads this with an open mind will begin to understand the flaws and biases inherent in WoW’s methodology.
David Friedman
December 20, 2008
I want to clarify and update my above comment: the Pistons were 5-1 with McDyess overall, including 3-1 since he returned to the team and played alongside Iverson. After the double overtime loss to Utah, those numbers are now 5-2 and 3-2 respectively.