On Saturday night the NBA completed 20% of the regular season. Teams have now played 246 regular season games. Just 984 more games and the 2009 playoffs can begin. Although the NBA still has 80% of the regular season to complete, I think we can now start to form some ideas about how this season will end. And those ideas start with Table One.
Table One: NBA Efficiency Differential After 20% of the 2008-09 Season
Table One reports each team’s Efficiency Differential (offensive efficiency minus defensive efficiency) at the 20% mark. In addition, for each team I have projected the final winning percentage the team’s efficiency differential suggests.
The Struggling Spurs
Before we go over the numbers it’s important to note that no effort has been made to adjust for injuries. For example, currently the San Antonio Spurs have the 9th best differential in the Western Conference. Given this result, the Spurs are right now looking at the lottery, not the post-season.
But the Spurs have played most of the season without Tony Parker or Manu Ginobili. And since these two players have been very important to this team’s past success, it’s not surprising the Spurs have struggled without each of these players in the line-up. For the rest of the season, though, Parker and Ginobili – if they stay healthy – will play. So San Antonio will probably win more than 43 games this season and fans of this team can expect to see playoff basketball.
The Spurs early struggles, though, have led me to wonder about the perception of Tim Duncan. Since Jordan left the Bulls in 1998, people have debated the identity of the best player in the game. One player that has to be part of this discussion is Tim Duncan. Across the past ten seasons, the Big Fundamental has consistently been the leading scorer on a team that has won four championships.
Duncan, though, didn’t win these titles by himself. Yes Duncan is very productive, but his teammates matter. The initial 20% of this the 2008-09 season tells us that if Duncan was forced to play with the cast of players employed by the Spurs this year, Duncan would not have hoisted those championship trophies. And if Duncan was not on four championship teams, would he still be considered an all-time great?
For an answer, consider the career of Kevin Garnett before he arrived in Boston. As I have noted in the past, Garnett has offered just a bit more than Duncan. But KG was consistently playing with less talented players in Minnesota. Consequently, many people believe Duncan has consistently been the better player.
The story of Duncan and Garnett appears to be quite consistent with the argument Malcolm Gladwell offers in Outliers. As I noted in my last post, “in this book Gladwell examines the source of a person’s success. We tend to think that an individual’s success is all about the individual. But Gladwell argues convincingly that success is often about a person’s particular circumstance.” Applying this argument to Garnett and Duncan… it appears our perceptions of a person’s abilities depend upon the people around the person.
By the way – again, just as I noted in my last post — I was hoping to post a complete review of Gladwell’s latest, but I have not had the time. I did read the book and thought it was his best so far. For a review that appears to be consistent with my assessment, I recommend what David Leonhardt had to say in the New York Times.
Other Stories at the 20% Mark
Beyond the struggling Spurs, what else have we learned at this point in the 2008-09 season? Here are a few quick observations:
- The Lakers are the best team in the NBA. And if their efficiency differential holds up (not saying it will, just saying if), the Lakers in 2008-09 will be the best team in NBA history.
- The Cleveland Cavaliers have improved the most since last season. As I noted a few days ago, this is primarily because Ben Wallace, Anderson Varejao, and Delonte West have returned to form.
- The Celtics have slipped. Yes, they are still very good. But the team is not what it was last year. And after a quick glance at the numbers, I think we can blame the aforementioned Garnett. KG’s WP48 [Wins Produced per 48 minutes] is only 0.200 this season. This is still far above average, but not nearly the level of productivity Garnett offered in the past.
- The Pistons have really slipped and are on pace to suffer the biggest decline. I am afraid this change can be tied to the loss of Chauncey Billups and the acquisition of Allen Iverson. Yes, once again, “the Answer” is really not the answer.
- The Houston Rockets and Toronto Raptors both made major acquisitions in the off-season. In both cases, these moves were made so that these franchises could seriously contend in their respective conferences. So far, though, both teams are posting an efficiency differential that is less than the differential observed last season. So it appears that Ron Artest (in Houston) and Jermaine O’Neal (in Toronto) have something in common with Iverson. None of these players appear to be the answer.
- The three best teams in the NBA are the Lakers, Cavaliers, and Celtics. At number four we have the Orlando Magic. Dwight Howard is having an amazing season, and the return of Tony Battie has also helped.
- And the fifth best team is the Portland Trail Blazers. Although I have not looked at all rookies, Greg Oden and Rudy Fernandez look to be on pace to be the primary contenders for Most Productive Rookie award. Currently Fernandez has produced more wins. Oden, though, has the higher WP48 and should eventually have a higher Wins Produced (if he stays healthy). I should note that Oden’s productivity has been obscured by the outstanding play of Joel Przybilla. And I should also note that Portland employs six players with WP48 marks that are above average. None of these, though, are named LaMarcus Aldridge
Those are just a few stories in this season. It’s important to remember that most of the season remains to be played. That being said, I would be surprised if the identity of the top teams – and the teams at the very bottom – is going to change much as the season progresses. Yes, it’s beginning to look like LeBron vs. Kobe could be the story next June.
– DJ
The WoW Journal Comments Policy
Our research on the NBA was summarized HERE.
The Technical Notes at wagesofwins.com provides substantially more information on the published research behind Wins Produced and Win Score
Wins Produced, Win Score, and PAWSmin are also discussed in the following posts:
Simple Models of Player Performance
What Wins Produced Says and What It Does Not Say
Introducing PAWSmin — and a Defense of Box Score Statistics
Finally, A Guide to Evaluating Models contains useful hints on how to interpret and evaluate statistical models.
Wages of Wins Journal 
C
December 1, 2008
It seems worth noting that at the end of December last year, the Celtics were on pace (by efficiency differential, not just wins and losses), to be the best NBA team ever:
https://dberri.wordpress.com/2007/12/29/the-best-in-the-nba/
Didn’t happen. Of course, they did win the title.
Chris
December 1, 2008
Look at the Jazz! 7th in efficiency differential with Deron William missing all but (realistically) three games. Boozer has been out for 5 or 6 games now, Okur missed 4 to attend to a family emergency, Matt Harpring has missed of the season and Kyle Korver and Kirilenko have missed time as well. This team has been absolutely decimated by injuries. Most nights half of their rotation has been in street clothes, and yet they are still 7th in differential.
The biggest injury story in the league hasn’t been the Spurs, it has been the Jazz. That is where the identity of the top teams could change. Utah could easily, once they get everyone healthy, be right up in the top 2 or 3.
Daniel
December 1, 2008
It may seem worth noting, but the comparison is weak. Nearly every Celtic last season was producing at a level far beyond what he had produced in prior seasons. When the players’ production leveled out to their career averages, they did almost exactly what they had done in the past.
The Lakers are a totally different story. If each player produces at a similar level to past production, the Lakers will be the best team in NBA history. So far, they are just doing what they are supposed to do.
Vince Gagliano
December 1, 2008
It’s important to note that, out of their first fifteen contests, the Lakers have only played four games outside of the Staples Center. And it’s a truism that in the NBA, teams tend to know how their own rims bounce the best.
We’ll know more about this team when they begin a three game road trip this week, including a back-to-back with the Pacers and Sixers.
On the flip side, the Cavaliers have played almost half of their contests on the road, with a relatively consistent lineup throughout.
It’s highly unlikely that the two squads will both finish with 70+ wins, but the gap between the two teams is probably closer than one would expect at first glance.
If both teams continue on their current pace, expect LeBron James to be the favorite for his first MVP award. He has a formidable squad around him and, not to mention, is second in the NBA in scoring. If nothing else, those two factors will contribute some immensely positive PR in James’ favor.
Stephen Quirk
December 1, 2008
“Although I have not looked at all rookies, Greg Oden and Rudy Fernandez look to be on pace to be the primary contenders for Most Productive Rookie award.” Please look at Derrick Rose!
C
December 1, 2008
Not only has LA played most of their games at home, they’ve also had a relatively leisurely start to the season, having played just 15 games. Only Minnesota has played fewer (14), and many teams (including Boston) have played 18. Sacramento has played 19.
They’re certainly the class of the NBA thus far and they have a realistic shot at 70 wins. But they have not had the most taxing beginning to the season.
dberri
December 1, 2008
Stephen,
I have looked at Derrick Rose. He is above average, but not quite as productive as the Portland players I mentioned.
Italian Stallion
December 1, 2008
Doesn’t point differential have to be adjusted for schedule and other factors?
The Knicks for example have had both an easy schedule and run into several teams with key injuries. IMO, that accounts for the 8-8 record and reasonable rating so far. The schedule will now toughen up, so they are likely to start getting their heads handed to them.
In addition, a team like the Knicks plays a very volatile style of basketball because of all the 3 point shooting. I think that style actually leads to more wins for an inferior steam but much more volatile scores (win by a lot or lose by a lot depending on is the 3 pointers are falling)
Peter Rumm MD
December 1, 2008
The authors premise that Garnett offers more on a night in an night out basis is irrational as Duncan had 4 championships with basically 4 different squads and has led his teams to the highest winning percentage of any team in history. It is lock that Duncan would have taken the Timberwolves (who had some great players including Marbury in his hey day) deep in the playoffs several times. Duncan may not be the physical athlete that Garnett is, but has that inate “stuff” that makes a champion. To argue otherwise is absurd, even though Garnett is a darn fine player in his own right but he is not a Tim Duncan.
Mike
December 1, 2008
What strikes me as untenable about the “conclusion” offered about the Duncan/Garnett comparison are two facts:
1. the Spurs have been better this season with just Duncan (5-2) than with Duncan & Parker or with Duncan, Parker & Ginobili. While those are small samples, a 20 game sample isn’t much bigger.
2. Duncan has, throughout his career, won regardless of the identities of his teammates. Certainly, the Spurs organization has found quality guys to surround him with, but Duncan’s teams win no matter who’s out there with him. (see the recent 5-2 stretch without Parker & Ginobili). There is an intangible, unmeasurable quality to a player’s ability to make those who surround him better and Duncan has always made his teammates better. I’m not sure the same can always be said for Garnett.
In the end, I think there is a need, in some corners, to prop up Garnett in a direct comparison because he’s somehow more approachable and dynamic than the aloof and unspectacular Duncan. The current argument may not be intended in that way, but it strikes me as consistent with that effort. The mere suggestion that Duncan might, somehow, not have been considered an all-time great is beyond appalling to me. But it is, if nothing else, part and parcel of the ongoing effort to diminish the greatness that has been happening in San Antonio for the last decade or so.
sage
December 1, 2008
considering there is a diminshing returns in basketball, isn’t it possible that garnetts better statistical play is *because* of his typically worse teammates. Duncan is not forced to do as much for his team, and thus probably does not. If put on a team where the talent between him and his teammates were much more immense, one would think he would try to statistically improve his game.
Joe
December 1, 2008
sage,
https://dberri.wordpress.com/2007/08/28/how-to-lose-your-best-player-and-win-a-title/#comments
The gap in WP48 is pretty large and offsetting for teammates wouldn’t be enough for Duncan to pass Garnett, especially if you dump Garnett’s first couple years since he was a kid.
Italian Stallion
December 1, 2008
I agree with Sage.
Notice how much more Lee is scoring and rebounding now that Zach Randolph is off the team!
Erich
December 1, 2008
This is certainly not going to look pretty, but I took Table one and compared its win projections against a monte carlo simulation based on the team stats so far. The results are very close overall, though the MC model is 5 wins less optimistic on the Cavs/Lakers and 5 games more optimistic on the Bulls/Nets. These differences are likely due to SoS and back to back scheduled games (where the MC model penalizes the road weary)
Team MC DB Diff MC Division MC Playoffs
Boston Celtics 62.8 62.7 0.1 100.00% 100.00%
Philadelphia 76ers 38.0 41.6 -3.6 0.00% 38.29%
Toronto Raptors 38.0 38.4 -0.4 0.00% 38.09%
New York Knickerbockers 35.3 35 0.3 0.00% 16.31%
New Jersey Nets 37.4 32.6 4.8 0.00% 32.40%
Cleveland Cavaliers 66.2 71 -4.8 100.00% 100.00%
Indiana Pacers 39.2 41.1 -1.9 0.00% 50.07%
Detroit Pistons 43.3 43.3 0.0 0.00% 85.05%
Chicago Bulls 36.9 32.4 4.5 0.00% 27.75%
Milwaukee Bucks 34.4 34.7 -0.3 0.00% 11.36%
Orlando Magic 56.7 57.3 -0.6 98.53% 100.00%
Miami Heat 41.6 44 -2.4 0.19% 74.77%
Washington Wizards 22.6 23.4 -0.8 0.00% 0.00%
Atlanta Hawks 44.8 44.2 0.6 1.28% 92.06%
Charlotte Bobcats 29.8 30.4 -0.6 0.00% 0.98%
Portland Trail Blazers 55.8 55.4 0.4 81.04% 99.85%
Utah Jazz 48.9 50.8 -1.9 6.85% 91.52%
Minnesota Timberwolves 30.7 33.1 -2.4 0.00% 0.08%
Denver Nuggets 50.1 46.7 3.4 12.10% 95.15%
Oklahoma City Thunder 14.3 11.7 2.6 0.00% 0.00%
Los Angeles Lakers 70.9 76.5 -5.6 100.00% 100.00%
Phoenix Suns 45.3 44.8 0.5 0.00% 69.15%
Golden State Warriors 29.4 29.8 -0.4 0.00% 0.03%
Sacramento Kings 23.3 21.2 2.1 0.00% 0.00%
Los Angeles Clippers 19.4 18.1 1.3 0.00% 0.00%
Houston Rockets 50.9 52.4 -1.5 48.16% 96.49%
New Orleans Hornets 49.9 50 -0.1 35.22% 94.30%
Dallas Mavericks 47.5 47.3 0.2 14.59% 85.20%
San Antonio Spurs 43.4 42.7 0.7 2.03% 46.50%
Memphis Grizzlies 22.8 22.8 0.0 0.00% 0.00%
Elizabeth
December 1, 2008
Is there something in your projected winning percentage equation that we’re missing? I tried calculating the same values based on the equation, but got .665 for the Blazers, .922 for the Lakers, and .855 for the Celtics.
Did you use an older set of data than the one shown on the table?
Mark T
December 1, 2008
Is there a website that is maintaing current season WinScore / WP48 stats per player?
too many steves
December 1, 2008
I don’t think you can just skim over a claim as crazy-sounding as “Derrick Rose is less productive this year than Oden or Rudy Fernandez.” I hope there’s more detail on the way on that.
dustin
December 1, 2008
Dave, by my calculations, the 3rd portland rookie, Nicholas Batum, has a fairly impressive wp48 as well, although his wins produced is not as high as the others because of his minutes.
dustin
December 1, 2008
mark, I have made some greasemonkey scripts that work with various espn sites. You can read about greasemonkey at https://addons.mozilla.org/firefox/addon/748 . The scripts are at http://userscripts.org/users/72607 .
I just double checked, batum has about 1.3 wins produced, the same as oden right now. As with fernandez, oden will probably outstrip him since oden’s wp is higher.
thanking dustin
December 1, 2008
Thank you Dustin, I have wanted something like that forever now.
Vince Gagliano
December 1, 2008
The Celtics have not suffered a large dropoff because Rondo has become more productive than last season, at about a 11.4 WS/48 compared to an 8.6.
j.awkward
December 2, 2008
dustin, that’s just amazing, thanks big time!
Tball
December 2, 2008
WoW Club Nominee
Ramona Shelburne of the Los Angeles Daily News: “Lamar Odom is averaging a career-low 7.5 field goal attempts this year in a career-low 25 minutes a game in his new role as the Lakers’ sixth man. But after taking just three shots in 29 minutes in Sunday’s win over the Raptors, Odom said that was less about playing time and more about the way the Lakers have been sharing the ball this season. ‘The game is called basketball, not shoot,’ he said. ‘You can play a complete basketball game without shooting a lot of shots. There aren’t too many guys that can do it, I just happen to be one of them.'”
Comment
December 2, 2008
Actually, when Parker went down, that team should’ve had a losing record according to win score.
The fact that they actually had a winning record with a bunch of garbage players (although it seems Roger Mason and George Hill are pretty good) says a lot about Duncan.
‘Struggling’ Spurs sounds a lot like an exaggeration when they are pretty much within the striking distance of everyone in the conference except Lakers.
stephanie
December 2, 2008
As always, Duncan is more valuable than KG because Duncan possesses a game changing low post game. He causes his team mates to get open looks out of double teams on the box (most of which do not result in assists because they tend to pass it along the perimeter) whereas KG is just as happy to be taking 20 foot jumpshots. He’s very good at making them, yes, but I’d rather have the low post domination in a seven game series.
I’m sure KG has the talent to be as useful to a team offense as Duncan, he just isn’t — in a similar way, I’m pretty sure Rasheed could fulfill a similar role with the Pistons instead of bombing away from three, but he doesn’t.
Jacob
December 2, 2008
Who are the 6 Blazers above average in WP48? My guess is that they are (ranked in order of WP48): Przybilla, Oden, Roy, Fernandez, Batum, Rodriguez.
Am I close?
dustin
December 2, 2008
You are just about correct, except batum wp48 > fernandez wp48. Addionally, blake and outlaw (if counted as a small forward only) are about average.
Pryzbilla is playing out of his mind right now.
Stephanie, I did a quick investigation of your hypothesis, but brent barry’s production actually declined when he switched teams from seattle to san antonio. Ditto for michael finley.
Ime Udoka experienced a moderate increase in production when he switched teams from the blazers to san antonio.
Jeremy
December 9, 2008
If duncan were on the Wolves and Garnett on the Spurs, the Wolves would have been no better, and the Spurs would have been just as good if not better.
Look at whats going on in Boston, and you see that having productive teammates can change everything. Duncan is on his way down, if not already done, and KG is still playing at a championship level. Maybe you all will wake up with KG retires with multiple rings, and appreciate what he did more in Minny.