Last season the Phoenix Suns made a bold move. Despite leading the Western Conference in wins, Steve Kerr – the general manager in Phoenix – traded Shawn Marion to the Miami Heat for Shaquille O’Neal. At the time of the trade I noted that this move would cause Phoenix to decline. And when the season ended, Phoenix with Shaq had clearly declined.
The “good” but not “great” Richardson
After 23 games this season, the Suns had set even further. Although the team had won 13 games, the team’s efficiency differential (offensive efficiency minus defensive efficiency) was exactly 0.0. In other words, this team was exactly average; and average is only good enough for 9th place in the Western Conference. And that means Phoenix is not currently expected to make the playoffs.
So let’s briefly summarize the Kerr regime. Last February Phoenix had the best record in the Western Conference. Less than one year later, this team looked to be destined for the NBA lottery.
As a consequence, it’s not surprising to see this team make another move. This week the Suns sent Raja Bell, Boris Diaw, and Sean Singletary to the Charlotte Bobcats for Jason Richardson, Jared Dudley, and a second round draft choice in 2010.
Of the players in this transaction, Richardson has attracted the most attention. A lottery pick in 2001, Richardson has averaged 18.8 points per game in his career. Last year his average was 21.8, and he scored 23.7 points per contest in 2005-06. Clearly Richardson can score.
However, as is often noted in this forum (perhaps too often?), just scoring points is not enough to produce wins in the NBA. When we look at all that Richardson has done in his career – via Wins Produced and WP48 [Wins Produced per 48 minutes] – we see a player who is not quite as good as his scoring suggests.
- 2007-08: 8.0 Wins Produced, 0.122 WP48
- 2006-07: 4.0 Wins Produced, 0.114 WP48
- 2005-06: 9.4 Wins Produced, 0.156 WP48
- 2004-05: 8.0 Wins Produced, 0.141 WP48
- 2003-04: 8.2 Wins Produced, 0.134 WP48
- 2002-03: 1.7 Wins Produced, 0.030 WP48
- 2001-02: 1.1 Wins Produced, 0.021 WP48
- Career: 40.4 Wins Produced, 0.104 WP48
An average WP48 is 0.100. So for his career, Richardson is only slightly above average. But after his first two seasons, Richardson’s WP48 stands at 0.135. This means that Richardson is better than “slightly above average”. One could actually call him “good” (but not exactly “great”).
Of course, what Richardson brings to the table is only half the story. Richardson’s minutes will primarily come from Raja Bell, and Bell’s WP48 this year has only been 0.001. And Bell’s career mark is only 0.015. So clearly Richardson tends to offer more than Bell.
But how much more? For an answer we turn to Table One.
Table One: The Phoenix Suns after 23 games
So far Bell hasn’t produced any wins in 712 minutes. If Richardson steps in and posts a WP48 of 0.135 in Bell’s minutes, Richardson will produce 5.1 wins across the rest of the season. This will transform an average team into a team that will still fall short of 50 victories.
Now the Suns can be even better if Steve Nash and Amare Stoudemire return to the form we saw last year. As one can see in Table One, drop-offs with respect to both Nash and Stoudemire – if these continue for the full season – will cost Phoenix about 12 wins. So if Nash and Stoudemire revert to what we saw in 2007-08, the Suns could still win 50 games this season.
And if that happens… this team still won’t be as good as they were before they acquired Shaq. But they might win a playoff series. In sum, although this trade means the Suns are rising just a bit, Phoenix is still not serious a contender (not with the Lakers, Cavaliers, and Celtics in the league).
What about the Bobcats?
Well, they were never contenders in the first place. And after this trade… it looks like they will be in a better position to get more lottery balls.
Oden vs. Hawes
There have been other events in the NBA in recent days. Players have been traded. Coaches have been fired. But I want to comment on something I read two weeks ago. Bill Bradley – of the Sacramento Bee – penned the following column on November 26: Leading Off: Hawes or Oden? It’s closer than you think (HT: Henry Abbott and TrueHoop)
After spending two of the past five nights watching the top centers of the 2007 NBA draft, I ask you to ponder this: Who would you pick now, Spencer Hawes or Greg Oden?
I would take Hawes.
You say I’m crazy? Stay with me. As much hoopla as there was over Oden as the No. 1 overall pick – and yes, he was injured all of last season – he seems to be a one-dimensional player. He is great inside, rebounding and blocking shots. Yet he doesn’t have the offensive impact like the big men to whom he was compared, Shaquille O’Neal and Karl Malone.
Hawes isn’t in that league, either. But what makes him attractive is his other dimensions: passing and outside shooting. Plus, Hawes has bulked up enough to compete with the wide bodies and he isn’t afraid to play inside this season.
In two games against each other, Oden had a combined 10 points (4-of-9 shooting) and 14 rebounds in 38 minutes. Hawes had 30 points (12 of 26) and eight rebounds in 72 minutes.
You get what you get with Oden. It appears the best is to come for Hawes.
Let me just first focus on the numbers Bradley cites. Using the above numbers, we see that Oden – per 48 minutes – scored 12.6 points, grabbed 17.7 rebounds, and posted a 44% field goal percentage. Meanwhile, Hawes – again, per 48 minutes – scored 20.0 points, grabbed 5.3 rebounds, and hit on 46% of his field goal attempts. So Hawes was a better scorer, but on the boards he was a disaster. Despite these numbers, Bradley wants us to “stay with him”.
Let’s go past the head-to-head match-up and consider what each player has done (prior to Wednesday night’s games).
Table Two: Greg Oden vs. Spencer Hawes
It’s important to remember that Oden – prior to Wednesday night – has only played 17 games in his NBA career while Hawes has appeared in 93 contests. So Hawes benefits from just a bit more experience.
Despite the benefit of more experience, Oden’s contribution currently exceeds what we see from Hawes. Yes, Hawes is a better scorer, with three more points scored per 48 minutes. But Oden grabs 4.5 rebounds more per 48 minutes. Plus he blocks more shots. As a result, Oden’s Win Score per 48 minute [and WP48] is higher. And I think it’s reasonable to expect – contrary to what Bradley asserts — that the difference between these two players will continue to expand.
Let me close by noting, though, that Bradley is not the only one who is down on Oden. In the most recent edition of Sports Illustrated it’s noted that Oden only scored two points during a recent game against the New York Knicks at Madison Square Garden. According to SI, this is the lowest point total by a number one draft choice in his debut at the Garden in 40 years.
Both the comments of Bradley and Sports Illustrated highlight a potential problem with Oden’s career. Given how much people focus on scoring, it’s possible that Oden’s career will disappoint many NBA fans. But his production of wins should make Portland fans happy. And since the objective of the game is to win, perhaps that should be enough.
– DJ
The WoW Journal Comments Policy
Our research on the NBA was summarized HERE.
The Technical Notes at wagesofwins.com provides substantially more information on the published research behind Wins Produced and Win Score
Wins Produced, Win Score, and PAWSmin are also discussed in the following posts:
Simple Models of Player Performance
What Wins Produced Says and What It Does Not Say
Introducing PAWSmin — and a Defense of Box Score Statistics
Finally, A Guide to Evaluating Models contains useful hints on how to interpret and evaluate statistical models.
Wages of Wins Journal 
Anon
December 12, 2008
1) The Bee column is further (unsurprising) evidence that shot attempts are overvalued by mainstream NBA analysis. Pointing out two players with near-identical FG% but wildly different rebounding prowess, and then claiming the inferior rebounder is a superior player by virtue of his having taken more shots ought to get one’s sportswriting license revoked.
2) Interesting note- the comments for the Bradley article are overwhelming hostile to his conclusion, suggesting that the readers are more accurate in their assessment of the talents of Oden and Hawes (or, that Bradley set out to stir up some controversy and attention). But one comment in particular caught my eye:
“Is this a fan-article? Next we’ll be comparing Beasley v Jason Thompson.”
Unless I have missed the point entirely, I believe this fan is implying that no such comparison is needed because Beasley is clearly superior. But so far, Beasley has posted a -0.061 WS48 and produced -0.722 wins in 566 minutes, while Thompson, the King’s much-maligned “reach” in the draft, has posted a 0.103 WS48 and produced 1.134 wins in 543 minutes. While perceptions of Thompson have changed since the draft, I suspect that something close to 100% of Kings fans would still swap Thompson for Beasley straight-up if given the chance, even though such a move would, if both players sustain their current production for the rest of the season, cost the Kings more than five wins (according to my quick-and-dirty analysis).
Okay, given that Sacramento’s goal this year is likely to seek increasingly-favorable lottery odds, maybe this would not be such a bad idea. It’s weird, though, that this is the second year in a row in which a highly-promising athlete, according to both college win score analysis and popular perception, has been such a massive bust (according to WoW).
3) Shaq is currently the most productive player per minute on the Suns. Go Big Cactus!
Peter BK
December 12, 2008
I am a big believer in your approach, and I do agree with you that Greg Oden will have a better career than Spencer Hawes. However, I believe that your analysis of their play thus far is somewhat flawed. You say that “Oden’s contribution currently exceeds what we see from Hawes”. This is true purely on a per minute basis, but Oden’s rate of fouls (8.2 per 48 min!) precludes him from playing as many minutes as Hawes can. I realize that the negative effect fouls have is included in the Win Score formula, but a stat like WP48 inflates Oden’s value, as he is unable to stay on the court. If I were a coach, and needed either player for one quarter, I would choose Oden. But as the game does last 48 minutes, choosing Oden would force me to trust a good deal of minutes to a replacement player. Fortunately the Blazers have Joel Przybilla, who has been phenomenal. But as for the Oden and Hawes, I do not believe that Oden’s advantage in per-minute production is great enough to overcome the fact that, at present, a coach is forced to leave Oden on the bench far more often than Hawes. Great stuff though, write more!
William
December 12, 2008
I think Jared Dudley is worth a mention as well. He’s the prototypical WoW-style player (if you will). Watching him night in and night out in Charlotte, he’s quietly on course for a solid NBA career (WP48 of 0.53 in limited minutes last year). Even though Dudley is undersized, and is by no means the next Carlos Boozer, the Suns are markedly improved by handing Boris Diaw’s minutes to Jared Dudley.
It will be interesting to see if Dudley can get playing time in Phoenix, but if he does, I have a hunch he will flourish.
As a Bobcats fan, I’ll actually miss Dudley (and his hustle, reliability, efficiency, and contract) more than Jason Richardson.
William
December 12, 2008
Check that: 0.053. Dudley is slightly below average, not Wilt Chamberlain!
Sorry for the typo!
Tball
December 12, 2008
Truehoop (linked) was asking today if Rondo’s star had brightened to all-star status. With the top names at the point in the West (Paul, Nash, Williams, Kidd, Billups, Parker, Davis – forgive me if I am missing someone), who are the all-star point guards in the East now that we are half-way to the All-Star Game?
Italian Stallion
December 12, 2008
I’d rather have Oden because I think he’s so young and inexperienced right now he’s more likely to improve a lot, but I still think rebounding is overrated.
Case in point.
Zach Randolph is considered a good rebounder (as is David Lee). When Zach left the Knicks, all the rebounds didn’t leave with him. David Lee’s rebound rate soared.
Did David Lee suddenly become a better and more productive player?
Well perhaps statistically he did, but the reality is that he’s exactly the same player as he was. He just happened to have more opportunities to get rebounds with Zach gone.
IMO, that’s always the case to “some extent”. Defensive rebounding is almost always overrated just as inefficient scoring is.
C
December 12, 2008
I think the David Lee/Zach Randolph situation is more complicated than you suggest. For one thing, Lee appears to have gotten more minutes since Randolph left, frequently playing over 40 minutes and never fewer than 30 (in contrast to before). Is Lee’s per-minute rebound rate really that much higher since Randolph left? Also, has the pace of the Knicks increased since Randolph’s departure? I don’t know, but it seems possible.
Anon
December 12, 2008
@Tball
The WP48 All-Stars at point (or top five anyway) in the East appear to be:
Rajon Rondo- 0.326
Devin Harris- 0.254
Jose Calderon- 0.253
Mike Bibby- 0.207
Jameer Nelson- 0.185
Rondooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooo!
Vince Gagliano
December 12, 2008
Note that both Hawes and Oden play with outstanding shooting guards; Hawes with Kevin Martin, and Oden with Brendan Roy.
In today’s NBA, the theme of having your center being defensively oriented and your backcourt carrying the scoring load is not uncommon.
We saw Marcus Camby doing the dirty work in Denver while A.I. and ‘Melo got most of the glory. It happened with Ben Wallace in Detroit and now in Cleveland. Al Horford is doing it in Atlanta, and so go on the examples.
The trend of 20-10 guys like Shaq and Duncan carrying the offense are slowly dying out. Now, teams want point guards who can create shots for themselves and others, i.e. Deron Williams, Chris Paul, and Derrick Rose.
Owen
December 12, 2008
IS – If you bothered to check you would see that Lee’s rebound rate this year is below where it was the last two years, despite 10 straight double doubles since the Randolph trade.
Not that you ever bother to check…
Italian Stallion
December 12, 2008
Owen,
IMO Lee’s rebounding rate last year is basically irrelevant. I think your love for Lee as a player blinds you to what others are saying and what is actually going on the court.
Stats are great, but if you don’t know how to use them you will come to lots of incorrect conclusions (as you often do).
Lee was rebounding at level “X” THIS YEAR year with Randolph on the team. That almost immediately accelerated to X +Y when Randolph left.
What does that suggest?
Part of that was probably related to extra minutes (I haven’t done that specific calculation), but he became a rebounding machine immediately after the trade (last game excepted when he got hurt) .
I don’t think a comparison to last year is nearly as relevant because they were different teams, playing at different paces, taking different types of shots with different players on the court etc…
More importantly, Lee was rebounding very poorly at the start of this season (relative to last year) because of his bone spurs. So any comparison of all of this year to all of last year is skewed by that short period of time this year when he admitted he was struggling with injury.
He started to play better after awhile (more Lee like), but he exploded to set all kinds of lifetime tops after the trade. There is no way to account for that stretch other than to think that he was getting more rebounds and offensive touches as soon as Randolph left.
C,
I agree that Lee’s minutes are up and that partially accounts for more rebounds, but if anything the pace has slowed a little lately. I haven’t actually checked the pace stats, but I saw a quote by Duhon where he suggested he was slowing things down a little after the trade so he could wait for Lee to get up court and run the pick and roll. So if he is right, then the pace has not quickened.
Italian Stallion
December 12, 2008
Here is David Lee’s season so far.
http://www.nba.com/playerfile/david_lee/game_by_game_stats.html
November 18th was the last game Lee and Randolph played together. You can see the sudden and immediate acceleration of his rebounding and scoring to lifetime tops after the trade. The minutes played also rose. That accounts for some it, but IMO not all of it.
To me, there is no logical explanation but to think he has been getting more rebound and offensive opportunities without a strong rebounder and high usage scorer like Randolph on the court.
You can also see that he was playing poorly for a stretch in early November which is approximately the time we started hearing about bone spurs being a bit of an issue for him. That short period is what is keeping his overall record for this year somewhat level with prior years despite the recent surge.
Jimbo
December 12, 2008
I think your analysis and the whole WoW overvalues rebounding just like national writers overvalue scoring – ever thought about that? What makes you think that the weights you have attached to each component of basketball (scoring, passing, rebounding etc) accurately captures the importance of that component towards team success??
ilikeflowers
December 12, 2008
Sly, your logic for why rebounds are overrated applies to scoring (and most other stats) as well. So compared to what part of the game is rebounding overrated? Is your claim that rebounding is more susceptible to diminishing returns than other skills? Why?
Owen
December 12, 2008
IS – There have already been many long and heated arguments on this board about the issue of apportioning credit for rebounding, between the leading figures in this field. Everyone at this point has agreed to disagree and have stopped trying to argue about it since there is really nothing to be gained and there are many other, far more interesting things to talk about. I suggest you follow suit.
Mountain
December 12, 2008
Individual offensive rebounding matters more than individual defensive rebounding and the adjusted impact on team rebounding of either type (both important) matters more than the individual stats. I don’t have the adjusted rebounding impact data for these two players but it is conceptually feasible and one or more NBA consultant may be providing that type info to their team. We do have on/off data that isn’t a reliable basis for making judgments but it hints at Oden having a big team offensive rebounding impact. It also screams no defensive impact yet or even quite negative impact if you look at his team opponent FG% allowed or adjusted opponent scoring for a probable pace change. And a major decline in teamoffense on/off. Not reliable but food for thought.
Meanwhile on/off in lieu of adjusted data shows Hawes on the court perhaps contributing to a decline in team offensive rebounding, The data on his offensive impact is mixed with points scored down but team FG% up.
Hard to say who will be better. Will be easier to say who was better for their team, their context in the win column over time. But in different contexts the answer might vary. Will see which GM had the better design or understanding of their context and the league here today.
Mountain
December 12, 2008
I understand almost everyone chooses to to treat play after an offensive rebound as still the same possession since it didn’t change but ultimately I consider offensive essentially a new possession, a contribution to net possessions. This is a valuable part of Oden’s game but he will need more to be a major impact player. Either by developing individual or team defensive impact or offensive impact or both. Hawes has the same options for channeling his impact with adjusted team impacts ultimately mattering more than the individual stats.
Italian Stallion
December 12, 2008
Owen,
I didn’t realize I was rehashing an old debate.
I enjoy looking at all the models for evaluating players and generally feel that the model used here is the best one (relative to PER, +/-, adjusted +/-, NBA efficiency etc..) , but I also enjoy thinking about the exceptions and unique situations that come up so that I can improve on them using subective analysis.
Mountain
December 12, 2008
At the individual level Hawes as a 3 pt edge in the cdounterpart data on offense and OPden a4 point edge on defense. So right now at the counterpart level Oden has a 1 point edge.
At team level on/off Hawes is essentially equal to his sub while Oden is showing 6 points worse than his but of course the subs are of different quality between teams and the players each play with vs their subs play with vary too. So ultimately you need the adjusted data to gauge impact. Though you need good adjusted tools and the initial pure one season adjusted is not fully that. You need the next generation tools.
dustin
December 12, 2008
Regarding the on/off data, who is Hawes’ backup? Pryzbilla is having an AMAZING season so far which could skew the on/off data for oden.
Anony
December 12, 2008
DJ addressed the rebounding thing about 2 years ago. Also some interesting debates with Hollinger about PER can be found.
Jacob Rosen
December 12, 2008
You failed to mention the impact to the suns of replacing Diaw with rookie forward Robin Lopez. Won’t that subtract out the impact of having Richardson instead of Bell?
Great analysis of the Hawes vs Oden conversation. What do the numbers say about Kevin Durant this season? Is he starting to improve at all? What do you think is his ceiling in terms of WP48?
Mountain
December 12, 2008
The players who play center when Hawes doesn’t, according to 82 games, are Miller (about 2/3rds of the non Hawes time) and a little Moore and Thompson (for the remaining third).
Vince Gagliano
December 12, 2008
1. Kevin Durant has gotten more productive this season, but he has also moved from shooting guard to small forward. Overall, he has improved even in spite of his position change (6.1 WS/48 this season to 5.2 last season), but this improvement is marginal, and certainly nowhere near enough to help the Thunder climb out of the NBA cellar.
2. Durant has improved his shooting touch, particularly from the perimeter, with a 49.6% adjusted field goal percentage this season compared to 45.1% last season.
3. However, Durant has remained stagnant in rebounding and on-the-ball defense. If anything, he has slightly *regressed* in these categories.
4. Durant’s assist-to-turnover ratio has gotten much worse this season. Last season, it was .82 assists to 1 TO. This year, it’s .59-1.
5. Overall, Durant has gotten better as a scorer, but most, if not all, of this improvement has been offset by decreases to everything else. Making matters worse, as the Thunder continue to lose, the onus will be on Durant to score more to try and take them out of it. And if he goes into a slump, hello 250 lottery balls.
Mountain
December 12, 2008
Now 82games also shows Hawes with Miller almost 50% of the time so Hawes’ sub is probably a much higher % of Moore and Thompson and even Williams and less Miller than I said previously.
Mountain
December 12, 2008
Now 82games also shows Hawes with Miller almost 50% of the time so Hawes’ sub is probably a much higher % of Moore and Thompson and even Williams and less Miller than I said previously.
Mountain
December 12, 2008
When Miller and Hawes are together how is the center? I’d say whoever guards the center. Who does? Any Sacramento fans want to inform us?
If Hawes is actually half or so PF then he probably ought to compared to those type players instead of Oden.
dustin
December 12, 2008
Random thought:
What is the average difference in production for a player on the road versus at home? I was looking at various splits, and year after year players consistently produce (per minute) more at home.
Vince Gagliano
December 13, 2008
One thing is for certain, the two most common areas in which players are likely to differ in their production are shooting and rebounding.
Because teams know how the nets on their home court bounce the best, it stands to reason that statistics affected by missed field goals will be the most important.
For example, through 23 games, Dwight Howard is averaging 14.1 rebounds per game, at time of writing, tops in the NBA.
In 12 games at Amway Arena, Howard has averaged 14.7 rebounds per game (176 boards/12 games). But in 11 road games, he is only getting 13.5 boards. Because he practices his rebounding on the Amway floor, he knows the rims at his homecourt. Thus, he can work more off of his instincts at home than on the road.
The 2nd best board-crasher, Andris Biedrins, averages 12.9 boards per game in 10 games at Oracle Arena. On the road, he only gets 12.0 boards.
mrparker
December 13, 2008
1. Oden’s offensive rating is 107, Hawes is 102.
2. This is Lee’s lowest def rebounding year of his career by advanced metrics, yet his minutes have caused this to be his best year by overall numbers.
Vince Gagliano
December 13, 2008
At a few games past the quarter pole, here are the initial returns on the Lakers and the Celtics, currently the #1 seeds in the West:
1. The C’s boast an efficiency differential of
+12.0 per 100 possessions, the Lakers +11.5. For all practical purposes, a Finals between these two teams would be too close to call right now. However, Celtics in seven would not be an unreasonable guess as to the results.
2. This C’s team is playing slightly better than last year, when they posted +11.4. Last year’s Celtics and this year’s Lakers are currently in a dead heat.
3. The Lakers have one of the league’s top offenses, averaging 111.3 points per 100 possessions. The Celtics have a top defense, surrendering only 96.2 points per 100 possessions.
4. Pau Gasol is arguably the one player producing at a truly “superstar” level (.300+ WP48) on a consistent basis, averaging .318. For the Celtics, Rajon Rondo is providing .310.
5. Both teams are structured with an assortment of “above average” players in their lineup. Referencing “The Super-Star Theory,” a Lakers/Celtics Final would be the first time that the team’s leading wins producer would not have a career WP48 exceeding .300. However, either Gasol or Rondo would provide that “Super-Star” level productivity.
6. Rondo is providing much of the production lost by the C’s 30-something stars due to age. Combined with team chemistry, this is why the Celtics have not suffered a drop-off, and in fact, have improved.
7. If the Lakers win, Kobe Bryant will be seen as the “head guy” on a title team for the first time in his career. But, as before, the big guys will lead the way.
The Lakers are playing better than last year, but so are the Celtics.
P.S.: They say hindsight is 20-20, but pin some of the blame on the Sixers season for Elton Brand’s below-average productivity (NBA standards, NOT Elton Brand standards). At his current pace, he stands in danger of losing his 20-10 gold card in the NBA (Also held by Shaq, Tim Duncan, and KG) This isn’t the first time that ill-fated shopping has gotten a good coach fired. Am I right, Sam Mitchell?
Vince Gagliano
December 13, 2008
And speaking of the Cheeks firing, Mo Speights (Mo Speights!) has actually had higher per-minute Win Score stats than Brand. Yikes!
Jason E
December 13, 2008
Vince,
While Howard and Biedrins show marginal improvement in their rebounding at home, the difference in Biedrins’ rebounding is less pronounced when you control for minutes played. I suspect that it’s not statistically significant.
Further this is not at all a universal issue, even among elite rebounders. Rounding out the #3, 4, and 5 rebounders currently, Okafor grabs more rebounds on the road (per minute) as does Murphy. Tim Duncan’s rate ever so slightly favors his home rebounding this year, but the difference amounts to two rebounds over the course of the season so far.
I think we’d need to analyze more data, looking at not just rebounds per minute, but rebounding rates as a function of missed shots to really conclude that rebounders do better off their home rims than on the road. Right now, the anecdotal evidence for the top 5 suggests very little or no apparent pattern.
Vince Gagliano
December 13, 2008
Jason,
I was fully aware that this data is not conclusive, Howard and Biedrins are 2 of 300-400 players, and the season isn’t even halfway done.
But as far as productivity on home and the road is concerned, I would look at the rebounding and shooting numbers first, as those numbers are most effected by how the rims are constucted, whereas assists, steals, and blocks relate more to action on the court.
Also, power forwards and centers grab the most rebounds on the team, so any differences between home and road rebounding are likely to me more pronounced.
Furthermore, there is a wild-card possiblity here. If Okafor and Murphy played for teams that installed new rims on their floor this year, there is the possibility that they might not be as familiar with the bounces on those news rims as on the old ones that they used last season. That would certainly cancel out any advantage that they had by knowing their own rims.
For example, Okafor is indeed rebounding better on the road than at home this year. But last season, playing all 82 games, he grabbed 11.1 rebounds per game at home compared to 10.2 on the road. Murphy grabbed 7.6 rebounds per game at home last season compared to 6.9 on the road. Duncan was closest to evening the rebounding, but he still grabbed 11.4 rebounds at home to 11.2 on the road.
Granted, this theory still needs more work. But there is evidence that playing at home could very well help a team’s big men crash the glass.
John W. Davis
December 13, 2008
Rondo is doing his thing. His rebounding is what makes him special. He will continue to rebound because it’s in the his DNA. He led Kentucky is rebounding his last season there.
I agree that it is sad that people will think Spencer Hawes is better because he will average 20 points per game.
Too bad Hawes and Sac-Town will never be as good as Portland.
I think Portland could play their bench and give the Kings a good game.
keving
December 13, 2008
The Suns problem is the same one the Lakers had when they picked up Wilt. They have/had a forward and center who both need to be near the basket to be effective, so they tend to get in the way of each other. Stoudamire plays noticably better when Shaq isn’t in the game.
While I like Shaq, he’s a poor fit for the Suns. They need a center who can stay outside and set picks for Nash and pass to cutters moving to the basket.
Vince Gagliano
December 13, 2008
As far as David Lee is concerned, there is a little bit of a tradeoff.
Even if he is not as productive as in any of his three prior seasons, if he gets more minutes for the Knicks, he will produce more wins than comparable players with lower WP48s.
Believe it or not, this idea is at work in the aftermath of the O.J. Mayo for Kevin Love trade. Love has a higher WP48, but Mayo is getting more minutes. They’re actually at something of a dead heat in Wins Production, but most people are conceding that Memphis won the deal because:
1) Kevin McHale gets flak, and deservedly so, for other bad draft-day trades.
,
2) Mayo is scoring 20 points per game, while Love isn’t even getting half that.
,
3) The Grizzlies have 8 wins on the season, the T’Wolves 4. Therefore, people think that Mayo is contributing that much more to his team by scoring so much.
and
4) The consensus is that the Grizzlies have found one-half of the answer to their guard glut, while the Wolves haven’t found much of anything (Mike Miller, the other major centerpiece of the trade, has produced less and in fewer minutes than last season.)
Italian Stallion
December 14, 2008
IMO you guys are totoally misunderstaind Lee’s performance this year.
He spent 6-7 games playing injured (bone spurs) where he did very little rebounding relative to his norms. To not take that into consideration at this very early point in the season (where that sample size is very significat) is be a slave to numbers without using some common sense.
His production returned and then soared (more than can be accounted for by increased minutes) when Zach left.
You guys can tell me how productive he is, just don’t look at the raw seaosnal numbers for this year and compare them to last year because they are irrelevant without accounting for the various things that impacted the results.
Vince Gagliano
December 14, 2008
Come to think of it, his productivity HAS been outstanding since he’s been starting.
Given his increased minutes, his Wins Produced is bound to go up, which is a good thing for the Knicks.
For the Clippers, however, Zach Randolph has had somewhat pedestrian productivity, not terrible, but not what it was with the Knicks this season.
When Chris Kaman returns, there’s going to be a logjam between Randolph, the offensively-oriented big man, and Kaman and Camby, who are more defensively-oriented.