The last time the Philadelphia 76ers won an NBA championship the team’s point guard was Maurice Cheeks. And as I noted a few months ago (see What Ever Happened to “Fo’-Fi’-Fo'”?) only Moses Malone produced more wins for the Sixers during that championship season.
Cheeks left Philadelphia as a player in 1989 and ended his career in 1993. Twelve years later – after three and a half seasons coaching in Portland – Cheeks was named head coach of the 76ers.
Coaching Cheeks
Philadelphia only won 38 games in the first season with Cheeks leading the team. The next season the team started 5-19, but after Allen Iverson was traded for Andre Miller and Joe Smith, the Sixers managed to win thirty of their remaining 58 games (an outcome that was somewhat expected).
Last season, most pundits didn’t expect the Sixers to be competitive. When the season ended, though, the Sixers had won 40 games (a mark that was quite consistent with the past performance of the team’s players). This record, although below 0.500, was good enough for the 7th seed in the Eastern Conference playoffs.
In the off-season the Sixers added All-Star Elton Brand. Brand produced 13.6 wins for the LA Clippers in 2006-07, so it was expected that Brand would transform the Sixers into an Eastern Conference power. But after 24 games in 2008-09 Philadelphia again had a losing record. And now Cheeks has learned that being a legendary player isn’t enough. Consistent with his Portland experience, after a bit more than three seasons Cheeks is now out of a job.
The Chicago Problem
So what exactly happened? The pundits thought the Sixers with Brand would be good. And this time, Wins Produced told the same story. Philadelphia, though, has underperformed. Fortunately, if we look at the numbers, we can quickly see the problem.
Table One: The Philadelphia 76ers after 24 games in 2008-09
Table One reports what the players on Philadelphia are doing this year. It also reports what the team could have expected given what this team’s players did last season. As one can see, given the past performance of the players the team should currently be 14-10, or on pace to win 48 games. Given the team’s Wins Produced this season, though, the team should only expect to be 11-13, or on pace to win 38 games. If we look at the individual players we see that most players are pretty much what they were last year. The two exceptions are Thaddeous Young and Louis Williams. For Young the decline is tied to rebounds, steals, and shooting efficiency. A decline in shooting efficiency is also the primary issue for Williams. So if Young and Williams – two players who were not counted on to produce many wins this year – simply hit their shots, Cheeks might still be employed today.
One might note one issue with this analysis. Brand’s WP48 [Wins Produced per 48 minutes] is 0.075 this season. And last season it was only 0.058. Both marks are below average and not exactly consistent with the $80 million contract Brand received this summer. Of course the Sixers didn’t think they were signing a below average Brand. In 2006-07 Brand’s WP48 was 0.213, and it was this player the Sixers hoped to have (and it was this player people thought about in forecasting the performance of this team). If this was the Brand the team was playing, the Sixers would currently be on pace to win 45 games. And again, Cheeks would still be employed.
So what happened to Brand?
As Table Two notes, two years ago Brand was above average with respect to most statistical categories. Brand was hurt for most of last season and when he did play, he was below average with respect to shooting efficiency and rebounds. This performance, though, was much different from what he had done throughout his career. So in forecasting the Sixers this year, what we saw last year from Brand was ignored.
Table Two: The Recent History of Elton Brand
Unfortunately, what we saw last year has somewhat continued. The rebounding has recovered. But Brand is still having significant problems hitting his shots. Consequently, Brand’s overall productivity has been below average this season (and Cheeks is out of a job).
So is there anything Cheeks could have done to change the shooting efficiency of Brand (as well as Young, Williams, and a few other players)? Well, last year we saw a similar problem in Chicago. And like Philadelphia, Chicago also tried to changing coaches. But the problem in Chicago was never solved.
It’s important to note that most aspects of performance in basketball are amazingly consistent. When it comes to rebounds, steals, turnovers, blocked shots, assists, personal fouls, and free throw percentage; what you have seen in the past (on a per-minute basis) is pretty much what you will see in the future. So although people talk about the importance of coaching, team chemistry, diminishing returns, etc…, in general, what you see in basketball is what you are going to get. The lone exception is shooting efficiency. Although shooting efficiency in basketball is more predictable than almost anything you see in football (and also what you see with respect to earned run average and batting average in baseball), it’s the least predictable basketball statistic.
What Scott Skiles learned last season, and Cheeks has learned this year, when the shots stop falling you can lose your job. What’s not clear is what a coach can do to restore shooting efficiency. After all, if coaches could change the rate at which shots find the net, we would see more consistency with respect to this aspect of basketball.
– DJ
The WoW Journal Comments Policy
Our research on the NBA was summarized HERE.
The Technical Notes at wagesofwins.com provides substantially more information on the published research behind Wins Produced and Win Score
Wins Produced, Win Score, and PAWSmin are also discussed in the following posts:
Simple Models of Player Performance
What Wins Produced Says and What It Does Not Say
Introducing PAWSmin — and a Defense of Box Score Statistics
Finally, A Guide to Evaluating Models contains useful hints on how to interpret and evaluate statistical models.
Wages of Wins Journal 
kevinh
December 14, 2008
76ers are a great example why poring through numbers in basketball doesn’t work compared to baseball. In baseball each guy takes a turn and the defense is relatively equal for each batter no matter what anyone else did at bat. It is completely different for basketball. The top 8 teams in the East have at least one player who can create their own shots and put up points (and shots) no matter who is covering them or what the game situation is.
Most of his career, Brand has had teammates who can do this, which allowed his game to thrive. The current 76ers have a bunch of players who have the ability to generate nice WP48 scores as complementary players, but they don’t have anyone that keeps opposing defenses up at night- and you really can’t be a conference powerhouse without that.
All shots are not equal (as they are treated in wages of wins). Just as a baseball hitter’s efficiency drops dramatically depending on the count, the difficulty of a shot depends on who and how many defenders are guarding the shooter and how many seconds are left on the 24 second clock. WP48 often penalizes the players who draw the best defenders, take outside shots for the purpose of opening up the inside, or shoot because the shot clock is winding down and they are the best at scoring under those circumstances. But a team struggles unless they have a player who can do that. The 76ers certainly have been unable to win in the last 4 decades without a scorer in the line-up. Until someone steps up and develops (Young?) into a major scoring threat (or they acquire one), the 76ers are going to struggle to win games consistently.
Peter
December 14, 2008
Nowadays, the most employed method to improve a team’s shooting efficiency, from a GM standpoint, is to draft or trade for a point guard who can create shots for himself and for others.
Two examples:
1. Tyson Chandler was a highly touted high school player when he entered the 2001 NBA draft. Upon being selected second by the LA Clippers, he was shipped to the Bulls in the trade that brought Brand to Staples Center. Here is a year-by-year look at Chandler’s field goal percentage with the Bulls:
2001-02: 49.7%
2002-03: 53.1%
2003-04: 42.4%
2004-05: 49.4%
2005-06: 56.5%
Career at Chicago: 51.1%
Indeed, Chandler was inconsistent. In two seasons, he shot above 50% and about average for a center, but otherwise, he didn’t shoot well.
Now, enter Chris Paul and the New Orleans Hornets. In three seasons:
2006-07: 62.4%
2007-08: 62.3%
2008-09: 56.2%
Career in New Orleans: 61.9%
Now, it is unrealistic to trace ALL of this improvement to Paul. But there is a change in the positive direction, and is worth noting.
2. Andrei Kirilenko has spent his entire NBA career with the Utah Jazz. In his fifth season, the team drafted Deron Williams, who, like Paul, is one of the top assist men in the league. Here is a season-by-season analysis of Kirilienko’s true shooting percentage before Williams:
2001-02: 47.0%
2002-03: 51.9%
2003-04: 47.9%
2004-05: 52.0%
Career before Williams: 49.3%
And after:
2005-06: 48.5%
2006-07: 49.0%
2007-08: 54.6%
2008-09: 52.4%
Career with Williams: 50.8%
Note that Williams’ assists per game improved from 4.5 in his rookie season to 9.3 in his second, and has since gone above 10 per game. Bearing this in mind, AK-47’s shooting percentage over the last two seasons and this one now stands at about 52.2%
I am open to debate about this topic. I am aware that data is inconclusive.
adam
December 14, 2008
Just a small correction, Dave: the Sixers finished 7th in the East last season, while the Raptors took the 6th spot.
dberri
December 14, 2008
Thanks adam. I fixed it.
Mountain
December 15, 2008
One theory was that Brand would help create more 3 pt shots and raise 3 pt FG% and # of makes. Hasn’t happened. Almost identical stats as last seson.
A less commonly considered theory is that some post players clog the lane and hurt penetration. Surface evidence shows inside shots up a bit but FG% down noticeably. Back Brand out of the team numbers not sure what the message is which I haven’t done it but probably rest of team inside shots are down and rest of team FG% probably down too.
Brand and the starters have a fine enough +9 per 48 for that most used lienup though. Probably have to be more selective about the rest of the Brand lineups. More negative ones than positive.
Mountain
December 15, 2008
Sorry for the late night rush / typos.
Mountain
December 15, 2008
Sixers need a better pure 3 pt shooter. They’d also benefit from better PG leadership but so would 20-25 teams. Miller’s leadership was overrated last season because things worked out. Team worst adjusted +/- then and again this season.
Italian Stallion
December 15, 2008
I tend to agree with a lot of what kevinh says.
I think the reason the performance of basketball players tend to be consistent statistically is that GMs try to build teams with the proper balance of skills required for successful basketball. That allows most players and the team to perform close to potential.
However, they aren’t always successful.
It’s the “exception processing” where statistics sometimes fail to explain WHY a team or individual player is under/over performing expectations.
It sometimes happens when there is a major change of personel, a new coaching philosphy, key injury etc…
Some people refer to it as chemistry, but it doesn’t really matter what you call it. A team needs the proper pieces in order to be succesful.
I think using some subjective analysis of the details of a situation in combination with a statistic as an objective tool is the best way to evaluate players and teams.
I’d feel lost without high quality stats, but I’d feel equally lost if that’s all I had to work with.
Tball
December 15, 2008
If Michael Redd is being made available, maybe the 76ers are the team that should be calling the Bucks.
Also, the team has played better this month than it did last month. I know they are 3-4, but three of those losses were to the Cavs and Lakers – don’t plan on many wins in those games. Miller is shooting and passing better, Williams is shooting better, Iggy is shooting better, and hopefully Young is recognizing his 37% 3pt shooting last month was more luck than skill.
This team may have started like Chicago did last year, but I still believe they will finish over .500, although the lack of consistent perimeter shooting will continue to be a problem until they bring in a better perimeter shooter.
Joe
December 15, 2008
To be fair to Thaddeus Young I think it should be noted he was a PF last year for most of his minutes. This year he plays SF, so with the positional values, I think his WP48 last year would have been close to .100 meaning that he would only account for like 3 of their losses and not 7. Correct me if I am wrong, but in the past I think you have said you just plug the numbers from last year into this year, so I don’t think you accounted for the position shift.
Watching Thaddeus regress into a player who can only help the team when his shot is falling has been truly painful though I must admit.
The problems are…
1. Lou Williams. Take away his little hot streak and he was shooting 34% while shooting at the highest per minute rate on the team. Also turning it over at the highest per minute rate. Also with an ast:to ratio below 1.
2. Brand. Not making enough shots. Turning it over too much.
3. Thaddeus’ transition to the 3. He is struggling out on the perimeter. Last year he played along the baseline and ran and ran and ran at PF.
Mountain
December 16, 2008
“What’s not clear is what a coach can do to restore shooting efficiency. After all, if coaches could change the rate at which shots find the net, we would see more consistency with respect to this aspect of basketball.”
Design good plays… that the opposition hasn’t solved yet. That is a big part of coaches are supposed to do and some fall short on. Brand is in a slump but maybe the plays drawn up from him aren’t that good either.
And while you don’t just chase the hot hand, I don’t think you can totally ignore the hot and cold hands either. If I was coach of 76ers I would have constrained Louis Williams’ shooting further and some others. Stop taking so many shots, including too many bad ones or I am going to cut your time.
If you looked at 76ers last season they were terrible at shooting. The GM needed to do more. Brand should have helped and may still but his impact on team FG% on/off with Clippers trailed off even before his injury and maybe should have been a concern, a topic of intense scrutiny. Was it? I don’t know. I just used raw team FG% but with so much riding on it I’d pay for and use 4 factor, individual and team split adjusteds.