Last December I posted a new story every single day. Such a schedule allowed me to touch upon virtually every story-line in the NBA. To finish this next book, though, I have had to cut back to only three posts per week. And with my schedule limited, I now have to be much more selective in choosing the topic of each post.
For example, for this post I first thought about Rajon Rondo. Kevin Arnovitz – at TrueHoop – argued a few days ago that Rondo is currently playing at an All-Star level. Rondo’s numbers support this argument. In fact, Rondo is currently the most productive player on the Celtics. Yes, I think that’s quite a story.
But before I started working on the column I started thinking about the New York Knicks. Last summer the Knicks fired Isiah Thomas and hired Mike D’Antoni. And suddenly the team is not quite as crappy as they were last year. So did D’Antoni make a difference? Or is there another explanation for the decline in crappiness? Yes, answering those questions would be a good story also.
Sloan Repeats Himself, Again
As I was working on telling that story, Owen Breck – a frequent commentator both here and at Knickerblogger – sent me a quote that got me thinking about the best NBA team in my current home state.
This quote comes from Wednesday night’s game, which saw the Jazz win despite only scoring seven points in the first quarter. Sloan’s quote captures one of the primary arguments offered in The Wages of Wins. NBA players have an incentive to take as many shots as possible, because more scoring leads to more pay. But the incentive to take shots is not always consistent with winning games. And as we saw in the preseason, Sloan seems to spend a fair amount of time telling his team to focus less on scoring and more on winning. Perhaps if players in the NBA were paid to win – not paid to take shots – Sloan wouldn’t have to keep repeating himself.
The Jazz are on the Free Agent Clock
Speaking of paying players, much attention has been paid to the free agent class of 2010. Teams appear to be making decisions that jeopardize both the 2008-09 and 2009-10 seasons in the hope of landing LeBron James, or Dwyane Wade, or Chris Bosh, or…. Yes, there is some talent available in two years. But before we get to that particular market, there’s the free agent class of 2009. And it turns out, there’s some talent available next summer as well.
Two of the most productive players happen to play for the Utah Jazz. Chris Sheridan of ESPN.com reports that Carlos Boozer will definitely be on the market next summer as an unrestricted free agent. And Paul Millsap will be available as a restricted free agent. Here is what we know about each player:
- Each player is primarily a power forward.
- Each player is capable of starting for most NBA teams.
- The Jazz are not likely to start both players.
Given these three points, for the Jazz to bring back both they would have to pay starter money to a player coming off the bench. Further complicating matters is the fact the Jazz have already made substantial financial commitments to Andrei Kirilenko, Mehmet Okur, and Deron Williams. In the past, Larry Miller – the owner of the Jazz – has publicly stated that he is unwilling to pay the NBA’s luxury tax. Although he may have softened this stance recently (at least, that’s what the Sheridan article indicates) it does look like the Jazz are probably going to have to make a hard decision.
Before we get to the decision, let’s first look at the productivity of Millsap and Boozer. And this look begins with an examination of the entire team after 27 games this season.
Table One: The Utah Jazz after 27 Games
Table One reports the two standard views of a team. First we have how many wins the team could expect given what the players did last year (given the minutes this year). Then we have an assessment of how each player has performed this season.
One issue leaps out when you look at the Jazz. The team has been devastated by injuries. The two most productive players from last season – Boozer and D. Williams – have missed a combined 28 games this year. The team has also had to play games without Okur and Kirilenko. If the limited playing time of these players persisted, the Jazz would only expect to win 44 games this year [given what these players did in 2007-08]. Instead, the team is on pace to win 50 games.
This small leap can be mostly tied to Millsap, the player who has posted the biggest improvement. Last year Millsap posted a 0.126 WP48 [Wins Produced per 48 minutes]. This is an above average mark, but far short of the 0.213 WP48 posted this season.
Millsap’s improvement leads some to ask if the team would be better off keeping Millsap and letting Boozer depart. Three issues work in Millsap’s favor.
- He is the younger than Boozer.
- He is a restricted free agent, and that should limit his salary offers.
- He takes fewer shots per game (and scores less), and that should limit his salary offers.
So Millsap is younger and cheaper. But can he match Boozer’s productivity?
Table Two: Comparing Millsap and Boozer
For an answer we turn to Table Two, which compares what Millsap did this year to what Boozer did in both his career and last season (since Boozer hasn’t played much this year). The data suggests that these players are fairly similar. Both players are above average with respect to shooting efficiency, scoring, rebounds, and steals. Millsap is above average as a shot blocker, while Boozer is the better passer and bit less prone to commit personal fouls.
If we put the whole picture together – via Win Score – we see that Boozer offers slightly more. And it’s important to note that we are comparing Millsap at his best to the average productivity of Boozer. In other words, Boozer has already shown that he can be even more productive. We are not sure that Millsap will keep getting better (he might, but then again he might not).
Making the Decision
So what should the Jazz do? This might be one of those basketball decisions that come down to personalities. It can’t thrill the Utah Jazz that Boozer went from saying he wouldn’t comment on his impending free agent status to issuing the following statement to ESPN.com:
This comment was not greeted with much enthusiasm in Utah. For example, columnist Kurt Kragthorpe noted (see Boozer-backing takes a holiday):
“The level of self-interest to which Boozer stretched is disappointing. His whole approach was to shelve the subject of his contract until after the season. For some reason, having not played for 15 games because of another of those mysterious, difficult to quantify injuries that characterized his early years with the Jazz, he chose to field a question about it Wednesday night in New Jersey. What was he thinking?”
Kragthorpe was not the only one to question Boozer. Here is what Boozer’s boss had to say:
Jazz owner Larry Miller, in his weekly radio appearance on KFNZ 1320 AM, called Boozer’s comments “one of the top 10 stupidest things I’ve ever heard an NBA player do in 24 years.”
“Carlos knows better,” Miller added. “He told [Jazz general manager] Kevin [O’Connor] he just screwed up, but that doesn’t fix it, so what do the fans think now?”
Given Boozer’s comment – and the reaction this inspired — it’s possible that Utah might decide to let Boozer go and devote their limited resources to Millsap. Such a decision could save money. But it can also cost wins. As noted, Millsap is not quite as productive as Boozer. And furthermore, unlike Boozer, Millsap will not have Millsap backing him up.
Although letting Boozer go might lead to a decline in wins, I think teams sometimes are willing to accept more losses if it means they will have fewer headaches. And I think fans are okay with this trade. At least, right up until they get to see the additional losses.
– DJ
The WoW Journal Comments Policy
Our research on the NBA was summarized HERE.
The Technical Notes at wagesofwins.com provides substantially more information on the published research behind Wins Produced and Win Score
Wins Produced, Win Score, and PAWSmin are also discussed in the following posts:
Simple Models of Player Performance
What Wins Produced Says and What It Does Not Say
Introducing PAWSmin — and a Defense of Box Score Statistics
Finally, A Guide to Evaluating Models contains useful hints on how to interpret and evaluate statistical models.
Wages of Wins Journal 
JChan
December 18, 2008
Thanks for the Jazz update. I was listening to the Larry Miller interview on my way home from work. He does an hour long interview every week on the radio, and his candor is always impressive. It was great this week, he says something to the effect that “we usually wouldn’t comment on this, but…” and then unleashes on Boozer. It was awesome.
As far as choosing between the two, I don’t think Millsap will ever be quite as productive as Boozer is. Paradoxically, the main reason is that he doesn’t take enough shots. When your power forward shoots 55%, you want him to take as many shots as possible.
However, Millsap will be significantly cheaper, and he has been much healthier than Boozer. As a Jazz fan, I don’t want Boozer to leave, but having Millsap sure will make it easier to handle.
Arturo
December 18, 2008
It’s really surprising to hear such talk from Boozer. After all, it’s not like he has a history of stabbing his fanbase in the back or walking away from a possible NBA title for the money :-)
There’s a blind man in Cleveland who could have seen this coming.
I am a lifelong Celtic fan who is convinced that we would be talking about the defending NBA champs in Cleveland (possibly two in a row) if Boozer had stayed with them. He will walk away for the money and wind up someplace like NY,Chicago or Miami (who all have cap room in 2009).
Ty at Bucks Diary
December 18, 2008
Professor Berri:
There’s a market anamoly you or Erich Doerr MUST do a post on.
How in tbe world is Richard Hendrix unemployed??? He was just released by Golden State. He has size (9’0” standing reach) he has thte bulk, 250 pounds, and the strength, 13 reps to play the two most economically valuable positions in basketball.
More importantly, he has a sterling productive resume. He produced a four year Collegiate WS of 14.2. and he NEVER had a year below your established collegiate big man WS average.
Then, Golden State drafts him… he plays pretty well in preseason… but they send him to the D League (Bakersfield, your old stompin grounds!)
Anyway, he ABSOLUTELY DOMINATES the D League, posting a WS48 of 17.4.
Basically he is a wildly valuable commodity that no one in the NBA marketplace seems willing to acquire.
I dont get it!!
Thanks for your work,
Ty
dberri
December 18, 2008
Ty,
You wrote a great post on this.
http://bucksdiary.blogspot.com/2008/12/why-in-world-is-this-man-unemployed.html
When do you go to MVN? Glad to see your work get a wider audience.
mrparker
December 19, 2008
1.Wasn’t millsap a .2+wp48 player 2 years ago? I considered last year the fluke. Thats not to say that Millsap is anywhere near the offensive player that Boozer. Almost the entire difference can be attributed to assist/turnover ratio.
2. Knicks don’t suck as much because D’antoni plays David Lee 30 plus minutes a game. That one’s easy. Maybe if your Pistons would play their most productive players the most minutes……nevermind.
3. Writing an article about Rondo’s rise would just have been preaching to the choir.
4. I would love the Wiz to pick up Hendrix. Not until after they win the lottery and get Blake Griffin of course. I need to suck as much as humanly possible.
Tball
December 19, 2008
One missed point among those in Millsap’s favor – he is healthier. Assuming they cannot keep both players due to financial discipline, keeping Boozer means having not having Millsap backing him up and vice versa.
Boozer has averaged 67 games/season on his career and cannot best that number this season, while Millsap has yet to miss a game (when was the last time a second round pick avoided a DNP-CD in his first two seasons). If Millsap can play 20% more than Boozer each year, he will produce more wins even with a lower WP48.
Ignoring the financial aspect, keeping Boozer only produces more wins if the Jazz can find another Millsap to pick up the minutes Boozer loses to injury.
Still plenty of time to write about the Knicks or Rondo. It is a long season. That Rondo is a star is not news in this quarter, but how/why he has become more productive than KG is certainly of interest.
kevin
December 19, 2008
Rondo is absolutely abusing the guards he faces. He just blows by all of them, at will. The other night, the Hawks preferred to have Bibby switch off on Pierce, rather than him stay put on Rondo. I interpret this to mean the Hawks perferred to have Pierce blowtorch Bibby than risk whatever havoc Rondo would impose on Mike.
Daniel
December 19, 2008
Isn’t it better to underpay players? If Milsap can produce 10 wins/season for $5m/season, you have 1/11 of your payroll producing 1/5 of the wins of a very good season. It’s better than paying Boozer $15m/season, or 3/11 of the payroll producing 15 wins. Best case scenario, they keep both, but it’s unlikely unless Okur opts out or a trade happens.
Ben Gerber
December 19, 2008
I’ve been reading this blog for the past month now, and I’ve reall enjoyed all of its insight. It really interests me as a lover of basketball and econ/stats.
The way Carlos Boozer presents himself reminds me of a signaling or screening game in game theory. Boozer plays the role of the participant whose complete honesty is not pareto optimal.
He had the upper hand going into the season by being “hush-hush” about his choice of opting out after the completion of the season.
Now he has put himself out on center stage. The signaling game has not occurred yet so he still has the opportunity to have a all-star season and prove why he derserves a raise. Most likely, however, he will have an average to above average seaon because of his injury and a possible decrease in minutes due to the development of Paul Millisap.
So, although the historical numbers show that Boozer is the better player. His mouth is getting in the way. Like the post about the impact of head coaches, performance has a lot to do with team chemistry. Which will most likely take a hit this season and next (if he re-signs with the Jazz or not).
So either way, the Jazz and Boozer will not benefit much (if any) from this situation. Either Boozer will resign and the Jazz will be almost unchanged (depending if Millisap resigns), or he leaves and the franchise takes a step backwards circa when Boozer left the Cavs.
Say Boozer got his raise with another team, that money-first personality might not warrant a great locker room feeling on his new club. Although the evidence might show otherwise, Jerry Sloan has a different impact on his players than other coaches for example, Eric Spolestra with the Heat (Boozer’s likely destination).
Spolestra is a young coach with a lot of upside, but I doubt he has mastered the temperment and adaptability that Sloan or other tenured coaches have in dealing with new, superstar caliber players and incorporating them into the team chemistry.
Overall, I get very annoyed by players like Boozer. I understand he wants what is best for his family, but there are better routes in which to achieve what he believes are his ‘just desserts’.
Daniel
December 19, 2008
The Jazz should trade Kirilenko for Marion. They need a more perimeter-oriented defender that rebounds well, and Miami needs more shot-blocking to make up for Beasley’s mistakes on defense and more warm bodies to keep Blount off the floor. This would also prevent Miami from filching Boozer in the offseason, because it would eat up Miami’s cap space (though Miami would have to make a trade anyways to get far enough under the cap to sign Boozer this summer).
Jared
December 19, 2008
As someone who watches all the Celtics games, I can say that it is clear that at times Rondo is the best player on the floor. Obviously, he may be benefiting from defensive schemes that are designed to stop the 3 HOFers that he is usually on the floor with, but the biggest difference this year is that the offense is almost always run through him now. Last year, we say a lot of high post plays, and isolations, but now the ball is almost exclusively in Rondo’s hands and he is taking advantage. I would love to see a full post on this.
Chris
December 19, 2008
The Jazz should keep Boozer because the difference between being the #2 team in the West and the #7 team in the West is arguably the difference between Carlos Boozer and Paul Millsap. Jazz have a chance to be title contenders if everyone is healthy (and if the Lakers, Celtics, and Cavs start playing a bit worse).
The Jazz window is right now, but they are still a younger team than the Boston, Cleveland, and LA, so they should build for now and hope with improvement that DW, Boozer, and the others can grab a title.
I also wonder if you almost need to go over the luxury tax line to get the extra wins that give you enough depth to succeed. Lakers, Celtics and Cavs are all way over. Spurs, as one example, have been hampered the last couple years because of their atrocious bench, which is a result of their decision to stay under the tax line.
I would be interested to see how much someone would have to offer Millsap for the Jazz to let him go. He is, after all, only 6’8”, so teams may be wary to offer more than the mid-level, which I’m sure the Jazz would match and then figure out the rest later.
Jimbo
December 19, 2008
What about the opportunity cost of signing Boozer and the fact that Boozer is much older than Millsap? If the Jazz resign Millsap instead of Boozer, they will have a fair chunk of change left over by which they could upgrade other parts of their roster for example…
Ty at Bucks Diary
December 20, 2008
Thanks for the nice words, Professor Berri! And thanks for your work and for freeing me from Eff48… if you’ve ever read Alan Schwarz’s The Numbers Game, you are to Basketball as James and Palmer were to Baseball! I’m trying to be one of those small disciples who helps you spread the truth!
And damn, I sure wish I had the insights of your Win Score metric when I played in high school… I might have hoisted a few less shots and hit the boards a few more times!
Ty
stephanie
December 21, 2008
According to basketball-reference.com Cleveland has the number one offense, the number two defense, and a higher efficiency differential than the ’96 Bulls. Now, it’s still only December, but that is quite a change compared to years past.
I’m to understand Mike Brown has hired an assistant coach to help with offensive schemes. And last year Cleveland had the big trade, LeBron missed 8 games, and some players were injured. They’ve at full strength, had a training camp, added Mo, and so on…but still!
Tom Mandel
December 21, 2008
mrparker — you are a Wizards fan? How nice, me too! And aren’t they a lot of fun to watch this year… no.
They have a terrific young player, Dominic McGuire, who gets only 10 minutes a night for some reason. Otherwise, it’s a struggle.
All last summer, I called for them to draft Hendrix in the second round; instead they traded their pick for a little cash to the Celtics, who nabbed Bill Walker with it.
Alas, in a trade I *cannot* fathom, Ernie Grunfield gave away Antonio Daniels for 2 players — Mike James and Javaris Crittenton. Mike is a shot-hoister and Javaris couldn’t earn minutes in Memphis (!).
The result is that we now have 14 guaranteed contracts for next year, meaning it’ll be difficult to add anyone but our first round pick. Given that we are going to have a top pick in round 2 along w/ a top pick in round 1, this trade made no sense to me. Nice for Antonio, however — he gets to play for NO.
mrparker
December 21, 2008
Tom,
Watching the wizards is horrific. I watch every game with disdain. I cannot believe what Grunfield has done to that team. Nick Young is not good. Andre Blatche is not good. I can stop there. Caron Butler and Jamison are good. McGee looks like he will be good. Everyone else sucks!!!!!!!!
This team is decent with a healthy Gilbert and Haywood. My hope is that those guys just sit out the season and the wiz can grab the number 1 pick and become a great team. As constructed this is a dream. The support guys just aren’t good enough.
Rob O
December 24, 2008
Fellow WoW reader and Wizards fan here. Im assuming we all want us to tank this year? I dream of Blake Griffin. I wouldn’t be too upset with Cole Aldrich or DeJuan Blair though. I doubt Blair would declare but speaking of 6’9 or less really productive post players like Millsap, Boozer. and Hendrix, Blair definitely fits the mold. Knowing the Wiz though, I bet they’ll draft DeRozan or something.
MC Welk
January 7, 2009
I can’t believe I missed this over the holidays. What a salient post. Of course the Jazz can find another quality PF backup … Hendrix. And Ben. G., I love your comment, but it’s “just deserts.”