Apparently Kevin McHale fears blogger power:
“I think you’re going to see more and more shorter term stuff in our league,” he (McHale) said. “Just because the access now, there’s so much media availability and everything else.”
“There’s just so many bloggers; everybody’s got an opinion. There’s all kinds of stuff going on. Sometimes that starts forming the opinion of people in front offices, too, and owner. It’s been kind of a crazy year so far.”
Looking back, McHale has been the subject of quite a few posts offered in this blog.
Is Minnesota the Worst NBA Franchise in the History of the League? August 12, 2008
Missing and Missing and Missing in Minnesota April 15, 2008
T-Wolves Minus Garnett Equals the Worst NBA Team December 10, 2007
George Costanza, Danny Ainge, and Are the Timberwolves Better off Without Garnett? August 7, 2007
An Inconsistent Consistency Story March 22, 2007
But You Are Consistent March 19, 2007
The Timberwolves Change Coaches January 24, 2007
The Mayor Comes to Minnesota’s Front Office September 16, 2006
Despite this attention – which hasn’t been very kind – McHale is still an employee of the Minnesota Timberwolves. This suggests that
- McHale is wrong about the power of bloggers
- McHale is right about the power of bloggers, but this blog isn’t very powerful
- McHale is wrong about the power of bloggers, and this blog isn’t very powerful
Looking at the Last Major Decision
My sense is that point #3 is correct. Despite the powerlessness of this blog, I thought I would spend some time re-visiting McHale’s last major decision as a general manager.
On draft night McHale traded the draft rights to O.J. Mayo (and a few other players) to the Memphis Grizzlies for Kevin Love and Mike Miller (and a few other players). At the time this trade was made I noted that I thought McHale got the better of the deal. After 26 games this year, though, the T-Wolves have only won four games while the Grizzlies have a record of 9-17.
So did McHale make another mistake? Did I say something that was wrrrrrrr…., not correct?
As always, let’s look at some numbers.
Table One: The Minnesota Timberwolves after 26 games in 2008-09
Table One reports the standard perspectives on a team. First we have what the team could have expected given what the players did last year. Then we have what these players have done this year. As one can see, there is a clear difference. The Timberwolves are actually a bit better this year than their record indicates. Given the team’s efficiency differential and corresponding Wins Produced this season, Minnesota should have won six to seven games. And if we look at what these players did last year, Minnesota should have won 12 to 13 games so far this season.
When we look at the performance of the individual players we can see what happened. Heading into this season it was believed that Al Jefferson, Mike Miller, and Kevin Love were going to be above average performers. Looking at the numbers we see this expectation confirmed. Unfortunately, the remainder of the roster has been awful. Six players have played more than 100 minutes and posted a WP48 [Wins Produced per 48 minutes] in the negative range. And leading this pack is Ryan Gomes.
When we look at the individual stats, we can see where Gomes has come up short.
Table Two: Evaluating Al Jefferson, Kevin Love, and Ryan Gomes
As Table two indicates – with the exception of turnovers and personal fouls – Gomes has been below average with respect to every box score statistic. In contrast, Jefferson has been above average with respect to everything except steals. Love’s game has problems, but his ability to rebound and avoid turnovers also translates into an above Win Score and WP48.
When we look at this roster it seems clear – at this point — that McHale didn’t make a mistake on draft day. Heading into the draft Minnesota had one outstanding player. After the draft the T-Wolves had three good players. Unfortunately, the T-Wolves don’t have much else. And consequently, Minnesota isn’t a very good team.
Memphis and Mayo
What about the Grizzlies?
Table Three: The Memphis Grizzlies after 26 games in 2008-09
Table Three reports the standard perspectives on Memphis. Unlike what we saw with the T-Wolves, Memphis is about on target. Given what the players did last we would expect Memphis to have seven victories thus far. The player’s performance this year – thanks to the improved play of Mike Conley and Darko Milicic – translates into 8.9 Wins Produced. Consequently Memphis is on pace to win about 28 games this year.
More than 20% of these wins can be tied to the play of O.J. Mayo. In fact, only Conley has produced more wins for Memphis. Despite this overall level of productivity, though, Mayo is only about average on a per-minute basis.
Table Four: Evaluating OJ Mayo
When we look at the individual stats – reported in Table Four – we see that Mayo has been an above average scorer. But with respect to every other statistics (except personal fouls), Mayo is below average. Consequently, he has not yet developed into a “good” player.
It’s important to remember that neither Love nor Mayo has played 30 NBA games yet. So it’s a bit early to reach any strong conclusions. Nevertheless, at this point I think McHale should be happy with the decision he made on draft day.
As for much of the rest of his decisions… well, many of those don’t look too good. And that suggests that maybe the T-wolves were wise to move McHale out of his position as general manager. Of course, that doesn’t mean I – or any other person with a blog – should take responsibility for that decision.
Memphis Missing One Key Ingredient
Let me close with one last note on the Grizzlies. Currently Memphis has three above average performers: Conley, Marc Gasol, and Kyle Lowry. If Mayo improves a bit, Memphis might have four “good” players. Although this suggests Memphis is on the way back to playoff contention, there’s currently one major missing piece. Conley has the highest WP48 on the team, but his mark is only 0.144. As I have noted in the past, a team can’t be very successful if its best player can’t post a WP48 beyond the 0.200 mark. And right now, Memphis doesn’t have anyone near that level.
This means Memphis is still missing a very important piece. What this team has is a collection of “good” players. What this team needs is at least one “great” player.
My sense is that in general, getting the one “great” player is harder than collecting a few “good” players. This suggests that McHale and Minnesota – despite their current record – is closer than Memphis to finding success. Of course, McHale and Minnesota have been in this position before. Once upon a time Minnesota had Kevin Garnett. Unfortunately, finding that collection of “good” players proved to be a difficult task for McHale. Perhaps this is why he’s no longer in charge of the search (not that I would suggest that was the right decision).
– DJ
The WoW Journal Comments Policy
Our research on the NBA was summarized HERE.
The Technical Notes at wagesofwins.com provides substantially more information on the published research behind Wins Produced and Win Score
Wins Produced, Win Score, and PAWSmin are also discussed in the following posts:
Simple Models of Player Performance
What Wins Produced Says and What It Does Not Say
Introducing PAWSmin — and a Defense of Box Score Statistics
Finally, A Guide to Evaluating Models contains useful hints on how to interpret and evaluate statistical models.
Wages of Wins Journal 
Vince Gagliano
December 21, 2008
Easier said than done, Dave. Well, for the Griz at least.
1) Can Memphis be persuaded into continuing to find a star, particularly when management believes that their second-most productive player, Mayo, is scoring 20 points per game and “looks” like a star?
2) If Mayo goes through a slump, will reality start to set in?
3) If Minnesota somehow lands Ricky Rubio, and the team outperforms the Griz next season, will people still see Love as a star?
And yes Dave, if they can, the T’Wolves SHOULD get Rubio, even if it means passing up a more productive player in Blake Griffin.
Even if Rubio is average, he’s still a huge improvement to their backcourt over Rashad McCants and Sebastian Telfair. And Griffin will take minutes from either Al Jefferson and Love, minutes that could be used to produce wins for the T’Wolves.
Come to think of it, don’t you notice a Matt Millen-like pattern with McHale’s good moves?
Ex-power forward and Celtic great Kevin McHale drafts power forward and future Hall-of-Famer Kevin Garnett, and trades for power forward and UCLA fab frosh Kevin Love.
Is the McHale Recipe for Success drafting guys who share your position and your first name?
If so, he may want the OU star to change his name to Kevin Griffin. And North Carolina career scoring leader Kevin Hansbrough would make a great fit for a halfcourt offensive scheme.
Phil
December 21, 2008
Dave,
I do not think that anyone disputes that Kevin McHale was a poor GM. Does this mean that he will necessarily be a poor coach, as you seem to imply?
I am not convinced. Fellow Celtic Larry Bird was lauded as a player and coach but has been maligned as a GM, though I am not sure if this is justified. Larry Brown is an excellent coach, but has pushed for some perplexing trades during his various coaching tenures.
McHale was a great player, and is considered a good one-on-one teacher. Whether he’ll be effective as a coach remains to be seen. If nothing else, I expect that he’ll be more benign as a coach than as a GM.
Phil
December 21, 2008
Vince,
1. Memphis has been in fire-sale mode since at least the Pau trade and possibly before, clearing cap space. All indications is that they’ll be looking for another star some time in the next couple of years.
2. Probably not.
3. I can see Minnesota having a more pressing need for a PG, but currently, Griffin’s productivity is to impressive to ignore. They’d be much wiser using Griffin (or a number 1 pick) as a trade chip to get Rubio or fulfill whatever other need they have.
mrparker
December 22, 2008
On passing up Blake Griffin,
Why would you let another team have such a productive player? There is an opportunity cost involved besides one’s own team’s lost minutes.
Portland liked Michael Jordan but they already had Clyde Drexler and passed. On the other hand, San Antonio drafted Tim Duncan(when he was considered a Center) though they already had David Robinson. If any team passes on Griffin for any reason they are going to be very very sorry.
On Kevin Love,
I’ve done some “research”(limited by my short life time) in football that shows decreases in player production with significant weight change. Some examples are Clinton Portis(middle of Redskins career), Reggie Bush(post usc), Ted Ginn Jr(Ohio St his last year). What I have found is that players are different players at different weights. Some players adjust and become better for their weight change(TGJ) after an adjustment period. Other players are never are as good until they return their original weight(Portis, maybe Bush later on). I suspect that Kevin Love will be a better player at the lighter weight but he is adjusting. He is doing exactly what you would expect him to do from college in all aspects of the game except shooting efficiency. That he can still rebound and get to the ft line so frequently is encouraging. Shooting efficiency is something that many rookies have improved as they matured in their careers. That he can be shooting 40 percent and still be that far above average as a power forward is nothing short of remarkable. The guy could turn out to be amazing.
Lastly,
I was watching McHale get ridiculed for his trade ineptitude. He finally gets one right and he looks foolish for making a smart move. I don’t know if that is irony, but it completely sucks to be him.
Vince Gagliano
December 22, 2008
Phil
Here is why I think the team should get Rubio:
The whole idea of a draft is to produce wins. On first glance, it looks as if Blake Griffin will produce more wins for the T’Wolves than Rubio.
But, for sake of assumption, let’s assume that McCants/Telfair have an average WP48 of -.100. Also, we’ll assume that, like most NBA rookies, Rubio is average (.100 WP48)
If Rubio gets all of the minutes that those two guards play, he represents a boost in productivity of +.200 WP48. In other words, it’s almost as if the T’Wolves replaced an average player with a superstar, or an unproductive player (.000 WP48) with someone of Miller’s, Love’s, or Jefferson’s producitivity.
For Blake Griffin to have the same kind of immediate impact in the lineup, he would have to produce at right around a .400 WP48 his rookie year. In other words, the T’Wolves need to hope and pray that Griffin is the next Shaquille O’Neal or Tim Duncan.
Besides, the Wolves are now left with a problem. They have three productive big men in Love, Jefferson, and Griffin, but only two starting spots between them; and Mark Madsen, Jason Collins, Craig Smith, and Calvin Booth will all want at least some minutes. So at least one of their productive players will have to sit on the bench, while one of their less productive players get minutes, which will hurt the team.
Even Brandon Jennings would likely be a better choice for the Wolves than Griffin, using the same logic mentioned above.
So, in a nutshell, that’s why Ricky Rubio, even if he wouldn’t be the most productive player on the board, he would probably be a better choice for the Wolves than Griffin.
On the other hand, a team like Memphis, that has a glut of productive guards, could very well benefit from Griffin, who would have a similar impact as Rubio could with the Wolves.
mrparker
December 22, 2008
Vince,
I’m not sure of any other instances but last year the fact that Adam Morrison was being replaced by Jason richardson was supposed to have a similar effect on Charlotte. That didn’t work.
mrparker
December 22, 2008
Mr. Berri,
I just watched Steven A. and skip emphatically state that this Boston team is not as good as the 86 celtics. To paraphrase Steven A., the celtics record is a sign of the times and not a reflection of historical greatness. Please bless us with a debunking.
Phil
December 22, 2008
Vince,
I do not disagree that Minnesota could benefit more from a strong PG than a strong PF, and I agree with your assessment for the most part.
(Rookies are generally below average, contrary to your assertion that they generally have a WP of .100, though Rubio could be an exception.)
I am simply arguing that Griffin is projected to be much more productive than Rubio or anyone else in this draft class, and as such could be used to trade for a player of Rubio’s stature, as well as other assets.
Using your example, Memphis jump at the chance of Griffin for Kyle Lowry and a 1st round pick, which could give Minnesota an above-average PG that will likely improve, and then some.
Or they could draft Griffin and unload Love or Jefferson; avoiding a logjam at PF is important, but there are other ways to do so that still allow you to get the most productive players possible than simply not drafting those players.
Trade Machine Man
December 22, 2008
Hasheem Thabeet anyone?
John W. Davis
December 22, 2008
One day the Wolves will get it together. Corey Brewer type players are the key.
Rob O
December 22, 2008
What? Corey Brewer is never going to be good, he’s really bad. You mean players that can’t handle the ball, don’t pass well, and can’t score are the key? I don’t follow. Corey Brewer is bad.
anon
December 22, 2008
Maybe Corey Brewers are the key to a lottery-winning team?
stephanie
December 22, 2008
MrParker: If one thinks the current league is more watered down compared to what the ’86 Celtics faced then looking at efficiency differentials won’t mean much.
Personally, I think the ’08 Celtics have a far superior bench, but the ’86 Celtic front line would do ugly things in a series where starts play more minutes anyway. That old Boston team has pretty much the perfect starting lineup to attack the current Boston weaknesses.
I think the ’86 Celtics would roll through the playoffs that KG and friends had trouble with. I mean 7 games with the Hawks and Cavs, really? Bird wouldn’t disappear for long stretches like Pierce, that’s for sure. Parish is an actual threat from the center position. Him and McHale actually post up! It’s crazy.
mrparker
December 22, 2008
stephanie,
The celts major weakness last year was any small forward that could matchup with Pierce. Thats why they dismantled the two best teams(lakers and detroit) they played while having trouble with the two worst(cleveland and atlanta). With the emergence of Rondo, I think this weakness may disappear.
Basketball-reference has the league average efficiency for every year since at least 1980. I’m pretty sure that the league average was a high last year as it was in 86. I just looked it up 86- 107.2 and 08-107.5. Those stats prove that the league is actually better in 08 than it was in 86. That assumption needs to stop being made.
Zebra
December 23, 2008
A lot of insiders make major mistakes. Some major mistakes are going to happen even to smart people / organizations. But some make many major mistakes. Again nothing new. Blogging does make noting of these mistakes visible and lasting in a way that probably does have impact beyond water cooler talk and sports radio. But I am not sure they have more “power” than the mainstream press did or does unless it serves as broader based verdict to convince owners when the fans smell a failure and that isn’t just a few writers takes or dismissable as just that. I think it not just blogging that is involved here but it is the increased stat knowledge fans are getting from playing fantasy or understanding the dynamics of the game a bit better from the track down from stat, team synergy and salary cap analysts.
Zebra
December 23, 2008
from the “trickle” down
kevin
December 23, 2008
I’m surprised Gomes numbers are so bad. He looked like a player a couple of years ago.
Love will get better. His skills are too good. One of the problems the Wolves have had is not recognizing the offense should be run through Love more. He’s a good passer, unlike the rest of the Wolves players.
Italian Stallion
December 23, 2008
Woudn’t league efficiency be impacted by the depth of quality in a league?
If the average team only has 1-2 really good players because the talent is diluted, perhaps those guys perhaps could accomplish incredible things and improve the overall efficiency of the team relative to a time when there are 3-4 really good players per team and dimishing returns and tougher competition causes the overall quality of the team to fall????
How much more efficient was our Olympic squad relative to the best NBA teams despite being massively more talented?
My guess would be not by much (if at all) because of diminishing returns. Now throw a team like that into a league of Dream Teams and what impact does it have on their efficiency?
Just a question. I don’t know.
MO Wolf
December 23, 2008
MrParker – The Spurs drafted TD becasue Robinson was getting old ( 9 years difference in age) There is only a difference of 4 years b/t Jefferson & Griffin. That is the difference and with Love only 1 year older than Blake that would be excessivly redundant. I would not trade either of the Wolves guys for Griffin, or to get Griffin unless teh offer just blew me away.
Vince Gagliano
December 23, 2008
There’s one final reason that I think Minnesota should draft Rubio, and it doesn’t have anything to do with numbers –
Rubio addresses a position of need, Griffin does not. And usually, as a general manager, you’d much rather draft according to need.
Interestingly enough, nobody has mentioned that, thus far, Love is winning the Wins Produced battle with Mayo, even if it is only by the slightest of margins. So, if we are to believe Dave’s numbers, one could argue that Mayo really wouldn’t have made much of a difference in the Wolves win column as it were.
So, if anything, Mike Miller, not Love, is the real reason that the Love-Mayo trade is a success (From a rebuilding standpoint).
Besides, even if Griffin pans out in the long run, if he doesn’t create enough wins for the team, his perception in the NBA could still suffer. This happened to KG as a perennial M2P.
In sum, Minnesota, like any other NBA team, needs to draft and sign the players
who will lead to the biggest change in wins for the next season. Usually, that means drafting the most productive player in a class. But, on occasion, that could mean drafting a less productive player in the class so that players who hurt the team sit (so they do not hurt the team), while that player produces wins for the team, a double boon.
Phil
December 23, 2008
Vince,
I think everyone understands the needs that Sota has at the PG spot; I simply believe they could address that need and more by drafting Griffin and trading him.
I agree with the Miller addition being a huge boon. The reason they were able to obtain Miller, mind you, was because they had a draft pick that would obtain the player that GMs predicted would be more productive. If Sota does get the number one pick, why would they not perform a similar trade if it would let them land Rubio (or another PG) and another asset? Every lottery-bound team in the league would jump at a chance at Griffin, and be willing to let their pick and then some go to get him
Also, this will save them some cash; the second pick costs less than the first. If you can get Rubio second, that’s a cool 1 mil.
I also do not see how KG’s reputation suffered. He was an MVP, a perennial All-Star and All-NBA player, and is the highest-paid player in the league.
Vince Gagliano
December 23, 2008
Phil:
Part of why KG’s reputation suffered concerned the contract extension he signed after his rookie season – a maximum deal.
In the eyes of the public, he was more concerned about money than winning. Having McHale as your GM for 12 seasons and botched drafts galore doesn’t help.
KG certainly didn’t attain Shaquille O’Neal or Tim Duncan-like championship aura in Minnesota. At least, not that I know of.
Also, if Minnesota wants to trade Griffin, they need to hit a home-run because of his productivity. Chances are, they’re not going to get Rubio quite at his level. But there is hope.
For example, assume that the Wolves win the first pick in the draft, with the Oklahoma City Thunder going second. Minnesota selects Blake Griffin, objectively, a strong move.
Then, they Griffin for the Thunder’s first-round pick (Rubio), an expiring contract in 2010, and cash.
Okay, so Sota can and should milk Griffin for more than this (Subplot: Griffin played high school ball in OKC and is an in-state megastar)
But such a trade would not only give them their point guard of the future, but cap space to sign, well, you know, some free agents in 2009 or 2010.
Either way, if the Timberwolves want to improve their win-loss record in the short-term, and likely longer, they will not be able to do it with Griffin. There is too much of a logjam and too many needs elsewhere to make it work.
They need Rubio, they need Brandon Jennings, they need someone productive in the backcourt not named Mike Miller.
And if Griffin ends up not meeting expectations, then the McHale Meltdown will only get worse.
mrparker
December 24, 2008
Re Rubio,
Wouldn’t you want to see Rubio against at least US college level comp before wagering your franchise on him. Isn’t that sort of pick that the famed book MoneyBall would label a potential franchise killer. Maybe he could be the next Tony Parker, but at least the Spurs didn’t have to draft him in the lottery.
Re League efficiency
League efficiency measures how good the league was as a whole, period. Look at the league averages, they get pretty bad during Shaq and Duncan’s heyday(down to 102 some years if I’m not mistaken, these numbers can be found at bball reference pretty easily). A few good players can’t make up for a terrible league. The league we have now is underrated.
Re Griffin,
If i have a chance to draft a player who is going to be a .3wp48 every year for his whole career and I don’t draft him, then I am giving championships to other teams. Portland gave Chicago championships by filling a need. Take the championship pieces if they are available. Draft for need to fill out a roster. Any other course of action is illogical.
Anon
December 24, 2008
Why are we assuming that Blake Griffin is going to be an amazing player? You might have said the same about Durant or Beasley, and so far neither of them has really panned out in the NBA.
Phil
December 25, 2008
Vince,
I think we’re in agreement about the need for back-court players being much more pressing for Sota than front-court players, no matter what means they take. And I’ll take your word about public opinion on KG; I always thought the big knock on him was that he faded in clutch situations.
No matter what, McHale coaching is vastly different from McHale in the front office.
Vince G.
December 26, 2008
‘Nuff said about Rubio. He’s the exception that proves the rule.
As for McHale, he made his team, and now he must deal with it.
Which reminds me, don’t you think that there’s at least a kernel of truth in the rumor that McHale’s Celtic ties and West’s Laker days played a part in the Garnett and Gasol deals?
mrparker
December 26, 2008
anon,
I’ve got a pretty good system for finding college players who will be successful in the pros. Griffin is off the charts. Durant and Beasley were slated to be average to slightly above average(Beasley’s case)at best. If you search “Mr. Parker draft” you can find what I’ve written on past drafts.